Reporting "The Polls" in 2004

Media reports of polls indicate how well public opinion pollshave been integrated into campaign coverage. This article examineshow polls were used in 2004. Although there were relativelylimited methodological changes in how polls were conducted in2004, there were changes in how the polls were treated in themedia. Americans in 2004 were subjected to intense debates aboutpolls and to as much reporting about "the polls" as there wasof the polls themselves. The discussion of "the polls" in 2004included claims of electability during the Democratic nominatingprocess, increased reporting about methodological issues, andheightened political criticisms of "the polls." The articleconcludes with a discussion of the current state and the futureof news polling.     

PUBLIC OPINION AND THE PANAMA CANAL TREATIES OF 1977

In April 1978, after nine months of national debate, the Senatenarrowly ratified new Panama Canal treaties. Voting was apparentlyinfluenced by numerous opinion polls, which were seen as showingincreased support for the treaties. But several analysts haveshown that this interpretation was erroneous; public opinionconsistently opposed the treaties. This study attempts to determinewhat went wrong. It begins by arraying and analyzing all nationalpoll results on the topic in order to establish a coherent pictureof public opinion. It then identifies a number of polling andreporting practices which may have contributed to the misinterpretationof the findings. The study concludes with recommendations foralleviating these problems.     

THE OBSESSION TO FORECAST: PRE-ELECTION POLLS IN THE ISRAELI PRESS

The generous coverage of pre-election polls in the media hasstimulated a debate on the effects of publicized polls on voters.Data for this study come from a content analysis of all pressreports on polls during six pre-election campaigns in Israel(1969–88). The findings highlight the impressive increaseof poll reports both by space and by prominence in the press.Analysis of the reports' content reveals that the style of reportingpolls has become dominated by "horse-race" journalism, wherepredictions and popularity ratings are the leading themes. Inaddition, although the reports have become more detailed andinformative, they still do not adequately define or interpretmethodological deficiencies. Finally, the analysis examinesthe intercorrelations between attributes of coverage and predictionserrors. The fact that the independent variable, media coverageof polls, has changed significantly calls for the inclusionof this factor in any study of polls' effects.     

North Americans' Attitudes Toward Illegal Drugs

Public opinion polls conducted from 1969 to 2003 found a variety of opinions on the use, possession, and legalization of marijuana. Public opinion about legalizing marijuana use is increasing, but it is also increasing toward harsher penalties for those who possess a small amount of marijuana. Public opinion regarding the legalization of illegal drugs appears to be influenced by the times. The majority of Americans increasingly believe that the country has made some progress in dealing with the problems of illegal drugs, but Americans are also reporting more difficulty within their families related to marijuana. This article examines trends based in public opinion polls on the use of marijuana in the United States and Canada and discusses the social and political history of marijuana and the biophysical effects, medical uses, definitions, and previous research related to marijuana.     

Shifting the burden of proof

The law places an extremely heavy burden of proof on those who wish to remove life support--even for patients in persistent vegetative states. A number of public opinion polls show that up to 85 percent of Americans would not want artificial nutrition and hydration for themselves under such circumstances. In light of these findings, a different evidentiary standard is appropriate.     

The Role of Corporations in the 1980 U.S. Congressional Elections*

The issues of whether and how corporate campaign donations affect the operation of American elections have recently become the focus of public and scholarly debate. Using Federal Election Commission campaign finance data, this analysis identifies a link betwren contributions from business PACs and candidate success in the 1980 U.S. congressional elections. Findings also confirm an association between corporate support and legislative voting for candidates re-elected in 1980. Candidates heavily supported by business PACs during the campaign did better at the polls and were more likely to vote conservatively if elected than those not so strongly endorsed by economic interests. Results are discussed in terms of various theories of the state as well as their relevance to potential election finance reforms.     

THE SHORT-TERM EFFECT OF ELECTION POLLS ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES: THE 1988 CANCDIAN FEDERAL ELECTION

Polls do not simply measure public opinion; they also providevital information that the public can use to form opinions andto make decisions. Using multiple regression analysis, the authorsfound that published polls had a powerful impact on the valueof the Canadian dollar during the 1988 Canadian federal election.This appears to have been due to the unprecedented importanceof economic issues in the federal campaign, the distinctivepositions taken by the major political parties with respectto the U.S.-Canadian Free Trade Agreement, and to the proliferationof "horse-race" polls in the media. These results have implicationsfor understanding the behavior of other elite groups, such asfinancial contributors and volunteer campaign workers, who mayalso use published horse-race polls to handicap election outcomes.     

Variation in White House Polling Operations: Carter to Clinton

Using an entirely new data source, this article presents evidencethat significant variation exists in how much different presidentialadministrations use private White House polls. Federal ElectionCommission (FEC) disclosure records reveal the amount of moneythat presidents since Jimmy Carter paid (through their respectiveparty organizations) to the designated White House pollsters.These financial figures, in turn, roughly correlate with theestimated number of polls commissioned for the White House,as determined through archival research and information providedby the pollsters themselves. Two patterns emerge: some presidentspoll heavily from the start of their administrations (RonaldReagan and Bill Clinton); others poll only lightly during thefirst 3 years in office (Jimmy Carter and George Bush). Thesefindings reinforce scholarly assessments of Reagan and Clintonas pursuing a "permanent campaign" approach to leadership, whereasCarter and Bush lacked much interest in public relations techniques.Our evidence suggests a need for a refinement of the institutionalizationconcept as found in the academic literature on White House polling.We agree that all modern presidents inherit sophisticated toolsfor understanding public opinion, but we demonstrate that theydo not use these tools with equal attention or regularity. Putdifferently, a polling capability has been institutionalizedwithin the White house, but substantial variation still existsin how much a given administration uses that capability.     

Who Wants a Deliberative Public Sphere?1

Democratic theorists and social scientists suggest that a deliberative public sphere would be good for democracy by maximizing emancipatory possibilities and providing broad legitimacy to political decision making. But do ordinary Americans actually want a deliberative public sphere? I examine this question in the context of four contentious “religion and science” debates. Through a multidimensional evaluation exercise with 62 ordinary respondents, I find that evaluation of public representatives in these debates tends to favor open‐mindedness and ongoing debate. Further, respondents explicitly discount elected representatives who participate in public debate precisely because they are seen as violating deliberative norms through their affiliation with electoral politics. Respondents want a deliberative public sphere. However, this desire reflects an understanding of the public sphere and institutional politics as disconnected arenas with incompatible rules and objectives, raising multiple questions for democratic theory and for political sociology.     

Don't Ask,Don't Tell and Other LGB Civil Rights Issues: Effects of Terminology on Public Opinion

“Don't Ask, Don't Tell” was devised to combat the perceived costs associated with gays and lesbians openly serving in the military, including low unit cohesion, damage to the military's reputation, and the general population's lack of acceptance for homosexuals serving (Belkin, 2008). However, recent polls and policy reversal have shown growing public support for homosexuals being allowed to serve openly. Interestingly, the amount of support has varied as a function of question wording. Two polls conducted by CBS News found support for homosexuals serving in the military varied with greater support for “gays and lesbians” compared to “homosexuals.” Two studies were conducted to further examine the effect of terminology on reported support. Two samples reported opinions for homosexual civil rights issues. Sexual orientation was described using the terms gay men and lesbians, homosexuals, gay men, or lesbians. Percentage differences were found to be greater than those reported in the CBS polls, as wording choice had an effect on reported openness regarding homosexual civil rights. These differences indicate that it is important to consider precise terminology usage when measuring opinions. Levels of support, stereotypes activated, and the relationship between support for civil rights and general levels of prejudice were examined.     

African-American attitudes towards United States immigration policy

In the growing US debate over immigration policy since the 1980s, it is often argued that immigration must be restricted in order to protect Black Americans from competition with newly arrived immigrants. Findings are reported upon Black Americans' attitudes toward immigration policy. An extensive review of more than 50 Black newspapers and magazines, from January 1994 to June 1996, uncovered attitudes both in favor of and against restricting immigration. The majority of articles in the Black press on immigration, however, were nonrestrictionist. The Black political leadership is also against restricting immigration. Furthermore, a review of the 14 most recent national opinion polls on immigration available to the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research as of July 1996 found that while many Blacks favor restricting immigration, all US Blacks should not be characterized as restrictionist, especially when compared with Whites. Historical attitudes among US Blacks dating back to before the abolition of slavery are discussed.     

Winning the Presidential Nomination: National Polls and State Primary Elections, 1936-1972

Using the results of 202 Gallup opinion polls and 248 stateprimary elections, this article develops a general model ofpresidential nomination campaigns. National public opinion isfound to play a major role, and state primaries a much lesserrole, in winning the presidential nomination.     

The Polls Trends: Twenty Years of Public Opinion about Global Warming

Over the past 20 years, there have been dozens of news organization,academic, and nonpartisan public opinion surveys on global warming,yet there exists no authoritative summary of their collectivefindings. In this article, we provide a systematic review oftrends in public opinion about global warming. We sifted throughhundreds of polling questions culled from more than 70 surveysadministered over the past 20 years. In compiling the availabletrends, we summarize public opinion across several key dimensionsincluding (a) public awareness of the issue of global warming;(b) public understanding of the causes of global warming andthe specifics of the policy debate; (c) public perceptions ofthe certainty of the science and the level of agreement amongexperts; (d) public concern about the impacts of global warming;(e) public support for policy action in light of potential economiccosts; and (f) public support for the Kyoto climate treaty.     

A century of mosques in France: building religious pluralism

The public debate in France has rolled out heatedly on the building of minarets, with opinion polls giving a majority of French opposed to the idea. Nevertheless, a fair number of mosques has been built throughout the past century. The French reception of mosques is therefore a complicated case. Recalling the history of French mosques and its different turns, with a focus on recent history, allows a glimpse at the visibility of Islam in the national sphere in France and its public reception. It also underlines that religious buildings, in the city, are at the intersection of different levels: questions of identity, of politics, of faith, and of integration, are all at stake.     

ARE THE HOMELESS TO BLAME?

Dominant ideology and public arenas theories yield different hypotheses concerning the incidence and antecedents of public beliefs about the causes of homelessness. The analysis reported here, which tests these hypotheses with data from a 1988 national telephone survey, shows that (1) more Americans believe structural rather than individualistic factors cause homelessness, (2) personal statuses like gender, political orientation, and party affiliation significantly influence such causal beliefs, but (3) the single strongest determinant is the perceived presence of—and by implication, exposure to—homeless people in one's own community. Causal beliefs in turn affect policy attitudes: respondents who consider homelessness a structural problem are more likely to favor government action than those believing in individualistic causes. While mixed, the results as a whole provide somewhat greater support for the public arenas perspective.     

Lyndon Johnson and the Public Polls

This article examines the relationship between President LyndonJohnson and those who take published polls. As his poll ratingsdeclined, Johnson used a number of methods to convince thosewith influence that he was more popular than the polls indicated.These methods included direct and indirect attacks on the polls,leaks of private polls, attempts to influence the results, andcourting the pollsters. The article argues that the last ofthese poses a danger to the objectivity of the pollsters. Secretlygiving advice to and taking private polls for a president areincompatible with the role of objective measurer of public opinion.     

ELECTORAL CONSEQUENCES OF "WINNING" TELEVISED CAMPAIGN DEBATES

This study explores the long-neglected impact of a candidatebeing perceived as the "winner" of political debates on individualvoting behaviour in West Germany. While there has been muchresearch on the effects of debates on perceptions of candidatepolicy stands and personality atttributes, there has been littlework that attempts to guage how much "winning" the debate helpsa candidate at the polls. I investigate this process with straightforwardprobit models of the vote choice, including party identificationand candiate evaluation as well as whether the individual judgeda particular candidate as the "winner", or "fared best" in thedebate. These models are run for the 1972, 1976, 1980, and 1983elections in West Germany. The results show that there is aconsistent impact of "winning" the debate on individual votingchoices in West Germany; controlling for party and other factors,there is a significantly higher probability of voting for theparty of the politician the respondent feels won the contest.Debates, then, do ultimately make a substabtial electoral difference.     

THE EMERGENCE OF BANDWAGON EFFECTS: A THEORY

Previous explanations of bandwagons from election polls have exclusively emphasized conformity causes. We propose, in addition, "indirect' causes, in which election predictions first affect key actors, influencing their decisions concerning financial support, volunteer work, or endorsements. These decisions then produce major campaign alterations that influence the voters and alter the election outcome. Our addition clarifies anomalous bandwagon research findings and directs attention to the possibility of bandwagon feedback on subsequent elections. If the same forecasters create frequent bandwagon effects, their credibility should increase as a result of enhanced accuracy. But increased credibility should in turn increase the self-fulfilling tendency of their subsequent forecasts. Such deviation-amplifying feedback would permit polls to produce a highly significant, and expanding, influence on elections.     

Changing Frameworks in Attitudes Toward Abortion

For more than two decades, legal abortion has been the subject of heated political debate and adversarial social movement activity; however, national polls have shown little change in aggregate levels of support for abortion. This analysis examines how the determinants of abortion attitudes have changed between 1977 and 1996, using data from the General Social Surveys. While in early time periods, whites were more approving of abortion than blacks, that pattern had reversed by the late 1980s. After controlling for other factors, older people are more accepting of abortion throughout the two decades, while gender is generally unrelated to abortion views. Catholic religion weakens slightly as a predictor of abortion attitudes, while religious fundamentalism and political liberalism increase in explanatory power. The associations between attitudinal correlates and abortion approval also change over this time period. Religiosity becomes a less powerful predictor of abortion attitudes, while respondents' attitude toward sexual freedom and belief in the sanctity of human life increase in their predictive power. Support for gender inequality remains a weak but stable predictor of abortion attitudes. This pattern of results suggests that the public is influenced more by the pro-life framework of viewing abortion than by the pro-choice perspective.