分类管控下的债务风险与风险传染网络研究

防范化解重大风险,守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线是我国经济工作的重心之一。本文针对部门债务,从债务口径、债务结构和偿付风险3个层次深入研究了实体经济债务风险的关键问题,提出了分类管控我国债务风险的理论模型。从部门间债务的比较分析中,本文发现非金融企业债务在实体经济债务中具有极高的系统重要性,针对这一特点,我们构建了双层交易对手方风险传染网络模型。以江苏省和山东省产业债发行人担保网为样本,基于该模型研究了区域非金融企业间债务风险传染结构,并根据综合节点度与对外风险敞口两类指标识别出若干核心风险传染节点。研究发现我国非金融企业部门内的债务间存在较强关联性,是潜在的区域系统性风险源。本文认为,我国当前的宏观债务问题存在国情特殊性,应尽快建立符合中国国情的债务风险和压力分析评估体系,为防范金融风险提供分类施策工具。     

大家观点

<正>徐忠:重视货币政策在维护金融稳定中的重要作用随着现代金融市场的发展,货币政策与金融稳定二者已经紧密关联,货币政策作为直接作用于金融体系,并经金融体系传导作用于实体经济的宏观调控政策,必须对金融周期、金融风险保持关注和警惕。做好防范化解金融风险工作、守住不发生系统性风险的底线,关键是要调节好     

中国特色社会主义治理实践对风险社会理论的新突破

风险社会理论宣称现代社会正处于"文明的火山上",全球性的危机一触即发。这种大胆且充满想象力的言论,掀起了学界关注风险的浪潮,但其实将现代社会看作风险社会或危机社会是放大镜式的过度解读。中国共产党在中国特色社会主义治理实践中发挥国家制度和体系优势,总结了一系列防范化解重大风险的科学有效经验,即正视风险的客观性,发挥中国特色社会主义制度优势,运用底线思维防范化解重大风险,在社会现实层面对风险社会的理论范式实现了重大突破。     

强化县级农商行风险防控研究

有效防范金融风险,重点是守住不发生区域性及系统性风险的底线。脱胎于农信社的县级农村商业银行无论是体制机制还是金融产品和服务方面都存在不少问题,极易发生各种各样的风险。本文简要分析了目前县级农商行面临的风险类型,并就如何有效防控风险提出了对策建议。     

防范和化解当前七大风险的现实逻辑与实践要求

当前中国主要面临政治、意识形态、经济、科技、社会、外部环境、党的建设七大领域的风险。防范和化解重大风险需要牢固树立底线意识、科学研判风险形态、严格执行底线管理、健全风险防控机制、发挥舆论正向引领作用,需要把握机遇与风险的辩证关系、底线与高线的辩证关系、防御与进取的辩证关系。     

善自律者必行正道

正时下,我们党内不少领导干部不仅不能自律,还严重背离了党的根本宗旨,忘记了党的优良传统,严重影响了党在群众中的威信,给党执政增加了风险。领导干部廉洁自律的关键在于守住底线。只要守住做人、处事、用权、交友的底线,就能守住党和人民交给自己的政治责任,守住自己的政治生命线,守住正确     

公司法律风险防范体系建设的几点探讨

构建公司法律风险防范体系,是控制公司法律风险的有效手段。法律风险防范体系的管理原则是以事前防范为主、以事中化解和事后补救为辅,本文就如何构建公司法律风险防范体系,浅作探讨。     

善用底线思维是从政路上安步前行的不二选择

<正>习近平总书记在谈到领导方法时强调,要善于运用底线思维的方法,凡事从坏处准备,努力争取最好的结果,做到有备无患、遇事不慌,牢牢把握主动权。底线思维对从政者特别是领导干部至关重要,要深入学习、熟练掌握这一科学的思维方法,自觉把底线思维贯穿于各项工作之中,以全局视野前瞻风险、守住底线,牢牢把握工作     

试论如何加强国库资产安全管理

近年来，随着经济发展和财政、金融改革的不断深化，国库部门努力创新工作机制，形成了新的、较为独立的国库管理体系和国库资金核算体系。但随着国库管理新体系的逐步确立，国库资金风险隐患也随之加大，如何防范和化解国库资金风险，是新形势下的重要课题。本文从多个角度入手，全面分析了加强国库资产安全管理的相关措施。     

张宝顺：人才资源是第一资源

世界万事万物都有底线。如果说。确保耕地、稳定粮食生产，保护生态环境。注重节能降耗，着力提高人民群众生活质量等。是实现科学发展的底线，必须牢牢守住；那么。诚实守信则是社会和谐的底线，同样要牢牢守住。     

Educational Landscapes and Urban Development. Contextual and Spatial Interfaces and Linkages

In the broad sociopolitical discussion on education quality within the last decade, it has become apparent that education is gaining importance for urban development, as well as space and the urban context are important dimensions of education. This becomes particularly evident in concepts for local educational landscapes (Ger. Bildungslandschaften). The young field of research on educational landscapes is currently lacking empirical research from spatial and planning sciences. In the paper, the current state of scientific research on educational landscapes in Germany and Europe and first insights to contextual and spatial interfaces and linkages between education and urban development in general are presented.     

Inventory Models with Continuous and Poisson Demands and Discounted and Average Costs

We develop a new, unified approach to treating continuous‐time stochastic inventory problems with both the average and discounted cost criteria. The approach involves the development of an adjusted discounted cycle cost formula, which has an appealing intuitive interpretation. We show for the first time that an (s, S) policy is optimal in the case of demand having a compound Poisson component as well as a constant rate component. Our demand structure simultaneously generalizes the classical EOQ model and the inventory models with Poisson demand, and we indicate the reasons why this task has been a difficult one. We do not require the surplus cost function to be convex or quasi‐convex as has been assumed in the literature. Finally, we show that the optimal s is unique, but we do not know if optimal S is unique.     

E-governance and Corruption-developments and Issues in Ethiopia

This paper reports the results of a survey of 400 respondents in Ethiopia about factors generating corruption and the potential of e-Governance to mitigate corruption. It is suggested that e-Governance can help not only in weeding out corruption but also in the establishment of sounder government citizen relationships in Ethiopia. While e-Governance cannot cure all the structural factors that breed corruption in the society, strategic implementation of e-Governance can help improve the critical variable in combating corruption-government citizen relationships. It is argued that while e-Governance initiatives can make important contributions to improving public services they can best do so by helping improve overall relationships between governments and citizens.

CEO and Chairperson characteristics and firm performance

This paper focuses on the relationship between Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Chairperson characteristics and firm performance. Specifically, the study examines the association between the characteristics of the CEO and the Chairperson of the board and firm performance. Using a sample of S&P 500 firms, the evidence found suggests that demographic and experience-related characteristics may be associated with the market valuation and financial performance of the firm. In particular, the reported results indicate a positive relationship between the presence of female CEOs or Chairs and firm performance, thus suggesting that gender-based differences may affect the CEO’s/Chairperson’s success. Moreover, the findings concerning the age of the CEO or Chair are mixed, while their experience and quality appear positively related to firm performance. Interestingly, a CEO or Chairperson holding multiple board seats is negatively associated with firm performance, whereas CEO duality has a positive relationship with Tobin’s Q and the return on assets (ROA) of the firm.     

David and Goliath: causes and effects of coopetition between start-ups and corporates

Coopetition (collaboration between competitors) among young firms (i.e. start-ups) and larger, more established firms (i.e. corporates) may be beneficial for both partners as each party typically has something to offer that is missing in the other. Start-ups often develop innovative ideas, are flexible and agile, willing to take risks, and aspire to achieve high growth, but they tend to lack the required resources, capabilities, and knowledge due to their newness and smallness. Corporates have resources, routines, and experience that enable them to work efficiently but lack a certain innovation capability. Research has suggested that coopetition represents an opportunity for start-ups facing restrictions in resources, while corporates benefit from start-ups’ innovative ideas. However, it is yet unknown whether start-ups and corporates engage in coopetition with each other and, if so, how and why they do this. This study seeks to fill this void by exploring the motives of coopeting start-ups and corporates, how they manage their coopetitive relationship, and what implications occur including potential benefits and risks. We present a multiple case study based on qualitative data collected through 70 interviews with Austrian-based start-ups and corporates representing 35 coopetitive partnerships. Discussing the findings based on our data, we propose relationships concerning coopetition and its role to enlarge resource- and technology-bases as well as its role in the development of dynamic capabilities.     

Career orientations and career success among research,and development and engineering professionals

Managing the careers of research, development and engineering (RD&E) professionals is important to the strategic use of RD&E in the economy. Appropriate mechanisms for motivating RD&E professionals will probably emerge as a critical success factor for organizations that want to compete in world markets. This study examines dimensions and levels of career orientation and their correlations with individual and work-related outcome variables among 78 RD&E professionals. The findings reveal a rich diversity of career orientation in RD&E professionals. The data strongly suggest that RD&E professionals are service, lifestyle and security oriented. However, they scored low on technical orientation and entrepreneurship. This paper suggests that the dual career ladder is not an effective device for managing RD&E professionals. Organizations must be careful to provide career paths that retain and motivate workers and, more importantly, find matches between organizational needs and individuals' needs, and restructure jobs accordingly. The authors offer suggestions for future research and identify implications for management.     

Modeling Pathology Workload and Complexity to Manage Risks and Improve Patient Quality and Safety

Anatomic pathology (AP) laboratories provide critical diagnostic information that help determine patient treatments and outcomes, but the risks of AP operations and their impact on patient safety and quality of care remain poorly recognized and undermanaged. Hospital-based laboratories face an operational and risk management challenge because clinical work of unknown quantity and complexity arrives with little advance notice, which results in fluctuations in workload that can push operations beyond planned capacity, leading to diagnostic delays and potential errors. Modeling the dynamics of workload and complexity in AP offers the opportunity to better use available information to manage risks. We developed a stock-and-flow model of a typical AP laboratory operation and identified key exogenous inputs that drive AP work. To test the model, we generated training and validations data sets by combining data from the electronic medical records and laboratory information systems over multiple years. We demonstrate the implementation of 10-day AP work forecast generated on a daily basis, and show its performance in comparison with actual work. Although the model somewhat underpredicts work as currently implemented, it provides a framework for prospective management of resources to ensure quality during workload surges. Although full implementation requires additional model development, we show that AP workload largely depends on few and accessible clinical inputs. Recognizing that level loading of work in a hospital is not practical, predictive modeling of work can empower laboratories to triage, schedule, or mobilize resources more effectively and better manage risks that reduce the quality or timeliness of diagnostic information.     

Work and shopping overflow — Consequences and differentiation among selected psychological and demographic characteristics

Contemporary individuals are forced to deal with excessive stimulation, which causes an overload in the cognitive and emotional areas. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the possible factors differentiating the perceived level of work and shopping overflow experienced by individuals and consequences of these states. Two psychological variables: cognitive control and sensation seeking, are chosen as potential factors differentiating the perceived levels of overflow. We assume that individuals with high cognitive control and sensation seeking will report lower levels of both types of examined overflows. Experiencing low overflow levels may manifest in the search for additional stimuli, rather than in the desire to limit them. Two indexes of behavior connected to seeking extra stimulation are selected: one belonging to the area of consumer behavior (readiness to participate in the experience economy) and one belonging to vocational behavior (choosing a boundaryless career). The quantitative study is conducted on a sample of 297 management students who are currently employed. The research results support the relation between cognitive control and perceived level of work and shopping overflow. Individuals who can cognitively control the situation and the incoming stimuli report lower levels of overflow. No significant relationship between sensation seeking and the level of overflow is found. The demographic variables that influence the perceived overflow are age and salary for work overflow and age for shopping overflow. As far as consequences of overflow are concerned, a low level of shopping overflow is related to readiness to participate in the experience economy. However, there is no link between work overflow and preferred career pattern. The managerial implications for human resource management and marketing strategy design are discussed.     

Review and reappraisal of modelling and predicting mental workload in single- and multi-task environments

The concept of mental workload has long been recognized as an important factor in individual performance within complex systems. It is documented that either overload or underload may degrade performance, and further affect the efficiency of the whole system. Therefore, systems designers need some explicit models to predict the mental workload imposed on individuals by the system at an early design phase so that alternative system designs can be evaluated. In examining mental-workload literature, it is found that few predictive mental-workload models have considered factors specific to individuals. This research aims to develop a practical framework for predicting mental workload in both single- and multi-task environments considering such individual factors. In order to describe mental workload more precisely and more completely, a framework for mentalworkload definitions, which contains instantaneous workload, average workload, accumulated workload, peak workload and overall workload, is proposed. In order to model individual factors, two new variables, i.e. effective workload and ineffective workload, are introduced to model the taskgenerated workload and individual-generated workload. The extension of the model to multi-task environments is also discussed. The proposed conceptual models are domain-independent and could be used to guide the development of operational models for different specific tasks.