Panel Conditioning in Longitudinal Studies: Evidence From Labor Force Items in the Current Population Survey

Does participating in a longitudinal survey affect respondents?? answers to subsequent questions about their labor force characteristics? In this article, we investigate the magnitude of panel conditioning or time-in-survey biases for key labor force questions in the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS). Using linked CPS records for household heads first interviewed between January 2007 and June 2010, our analyses are based on strategic within-person comparisons across survey months and between-person comparisons across CPS rotation groups. We find considerable evidence for panel conditioning effects in the CPS. Panel conditioning downwardly biases the CPS-based unemployment rate, mainly by leading people to remove themselves from its denominator. Across surveys, CPS respondents (claim to) leave the labor force in greater numbers than otherwise equivalent respondents who are participating in the CPS for the first time. The results cannot be attributed to panel attrition or mode effects. We discuss implications for CPS-based research and policy as well as for survey methodology more broadly.     

Estimating the Reliability of Single-Item Life Satisfaction Measures: Results from Four National Panel Studies

Life satisfaction is often assessed using single-item measures. However, estimating the reliability of these measures can be difficult because internal consistency coefficients cannot be calculated. Existing approaches use longitudinal data to isolate occasion-specific variance from variance that is either completely stable or variance that changes systematically over time. In these approaches, reliable occasion-specific variance is typically treated as measurement error, which would negatively bias reliability estimates. In the current studies, panel data and multivariate latent state-trait models are used to isolate reliable occasion-specific variance from random error and to estimate reliability for scores from single-item life satisfaction measures. Across four nationally representative panel studies with a combined sample size of over 68,000, reliability estimates increased by an average of 16% when the multivariate model was used instead of the more standard univariate longitudinal model.     

Cohort Measures of Internal Migration: Understanding Long-Term Trends

Internal migration intensities fluctuate over time, but both migration levels and trends show great diversity. The dynamics underpinning these trends remain poorly understood because they are analyzed almost exclusively by applying period measures to cross-sectional data. This article proposes 10 cohort measures that can be applied to both prospective and retrospective data to systematically examine long-term trends. To demonstrate their benefits, the proposed measures are applied to retrospective survey data for England that provide residential histories from birth to age 50 for cohorts born between 1918 and 1957. The analysis reveals stable lifetime migration for men but increased lifetime migration for women associated with earlier ages at moving in adulthood and a compression of intervals between consecutive moves. The proposed cohort measures provide a more comprehensive picture of migration behavior and should be used to complement period measures in exploring long-term trends. Increasing availability of retrospective and longitudinal survey data means that researchers can now apply the proposed measures to a wide range of countries.     

The Protective Effect of Marriage for Survival: A Review and Update

The theory that marriage has protective effects for survival has itself lived for more than 100 years since Durkheim’s groundbreaking study of suicide (Durkheim 1951 [1897]). Investigations of differences in this protective effect by gender, by age, and in contrast to different unmarried statuses, however, have yielded inconsistent conclusions. These investigations typically either use data in which marital status and other covariates are observed in cross-sectional surveys up to 10 years before mortality exposure, or use data from panel surveys with much smaller sample sizes. Their conclusions are usually not based on formal statistical tests of contrasts between men and women or between never-married, divorced/separated, and widowed statuses. Using large-scale pooled panel survey data linked to death registrations and earnings histories for U.S. men and women aged 25 and older, and with appropriate contrast tests, we find a consistent survival advantage for married over unmarried men and women, and an additional survival “premium” for married men. We find little evidence of mortality differences between never-married, divorced/separated, and widowed statuses.     

The relation of gender and sexual orientation to measures of masculinity, femininity, and androgyny: a further analysis

Data from a survey of 58 gay men and 58 lesbians are compared to college men and women on Spence and Helmreich's (1978) Personality Attributes Questionnaire measures of masculinity, femininity, and androgyny. Lesbians had higher M scores than college women, and gay men had lower M scores than college men, with F scores being similar across sexual orientation groups, within gender. Androgyny measures differed only by gender, not by sexual orientation. Further analysis shows that lesbians' high M scores come largely from their high self-ratings as independent, while college men's high M scores reflect strong competitiveness. Questions are raised about the validity of these measures for comparing these groups.     

Determinants of adults’ solo living in Canada: a longitudinal perspective

We examine the demographic, socio-economic and socio-cultural factors that underlie solo-living at mid-adult ages. Both individual and community level factors are analysed. The analysis is based on the longitudinal panel data of the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics in 1996–2001, 1999–2004, 2002–2008 and 2005–2010, and census data at the Census District level for 1996, 2001 and 2006. A two-level discrete-time survival model is used within a 6 year observational window for each panel. The analysis starts with persons aged 35–59 who were living alone at the outset of a given panel and follows their departure from this status over the following 6 years. For both men and women, the older respondents, those who have been living solo for a longer time, those who are not in the labour force, and those living in apartments, are more likely to continue living alone. Women are more likely to keep their initial one person household status compared to men in general. In particular, women with medium education (non-university post-secondary certification) are more likely to continue living alone, while for men it is those unemployed who are more likely to remain in the solo-living status. Moreover, persons with lower health status are more likely to continue living by themselves, in comparison to those with excellent health status.

     

Errors in Recalling Childhood Socio-economic Status: The Role of Anchoring and Household Formation in South Africa

In the absence of longitudinal data that track individuals over an extended period of time, information on childhood socio-economic status can be provided by questions that ask adults to recall their parents’ education or their economic status at childhood. The usefulness of these data, however, requires that people are willing to report this information, and that these reports do not vary systematically over time, for example in response to changes in current circumstances. In this paper, we evaluate recall data for South Africa, collected from the same adults in the first two waves of a national panel survey. We show that the data, particularly on father’s education, are compromised by very low and selective response, reflecting the fragmented nature of many South African families. Among those who do provide information, parental education is reported more consistently over time than the subjective appraisals of childhood economic status. However, we find also that both sets of indicators are sensitive to changes in current income, which would be consistent with anchoring effects. Furthermore changes in subjective appraisals of the past are highly correlated with changes in subjective appraisals of the present.     

Selective migration and health in the USA, 1984-93

Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we investigated the impact of health on domestic migration within the USA. We find that, for men below 60 years of age, a move from the middle to the bottom of the health distribution reduces mobility by 32-40 per cent. Non-random attrition from the panel implies that these are lower bounds. By contrast, we find evidence that, among older men, there is higher mobility at the top and bottom of the health distribution than there is in the middle. For women, we find no evidence of a relationship between their own health and mobility, although spouse's health does affect the mobility of married women.     

Mobility,Stagnation, or Attrition? Diverse Earning Trajectories in a Cohort of Foreign‐born Men

Researchers and policymakers frequently debate about the integration of immigrants into the US economy. These debates are often based on limited data that do not capture the diversity of immigrants who arrived in the later twentieth century. Related research has also struggled to incorporate the experience of short‐term immigrants or immigrants who move in and out of the labor force. Using records from the Social Security Administration, we track the complete cohort of foreign‐born men who received social security numbers in 1978 through their subsequent working years and characterize their earning trajectories. We find that the share of foreign‐born men with low earnings declined over time, mainly due to attrition from the formal labor force. We also show, for the first time, that immigrants’ employment and earning histories vary considerably by their countries of origin: while those from several countries in Asia and Africa experienced substantial earnings growth and tended to stay in the United States for the long term, men from Central America and the Caribbean experienced more stagnation and had high levels of temporary and permanent attrition from the formal labor force. We end by discussing the historical contingencies and socioeconomic contexts—in sending countries and the United States—that shaped these trajectories.     

Do Values Matter? The Impact of Work Ethic and Traditional Gender Role Values on Female Labour Market Supply

This article aims to gain a better understanding of the explanatory value of work ethic and traditional gender role values with regard to variation in female labour market supply. Although women’s labour market participation has increased dramatically over the past decades, it still lacks behind that of men. A high female participation rate is desirable for several reasons, for instance to cover rising costs due to the ageing of society. The existing literature has mostly focused on micro-economic and macro factors to explain differences between women in participation rate. However, more recently it has been argued that women’s values may also play an important role in women’s labour market decisions. Work ethic, expressing the moral duty to work in terms of paid employment, is argued to positively affect women’s labour supply. However, it is argued that it can have negative implications too if women who hold more traditional gender role values interpret work and work ethic in terms of housework or in terms of paid employment for men only. This exemplifies the need to study both values at the same time. We used longitudinal Dutch data (LISS panel, 2007–2010) and estimated both cross-sectional and longitudinal models. Both types of models revealed a similar pattern: work ethic is positively associated with women’s labour market participation, but only if we take into account women’s gender role values, which negatively relate to women’s labour market supply.     

Nonresponse in repeat population-based voluntary counseling and testing for HIV in rural Malawi

Despite the increasing number of population-based surveys in sub-Saharan Africa that provide testing and counseling for HIV over the past decade, understanding the nature of nonresponse in these surveys, especially panel HIV surveys, is still limited. This article uses longitudinal HIV data collected from rural Malawi in 2004 and 2006 to examine nonresponse in repeat population-based testing. It shows that nonresponse in repeat testing led to significant bias in the estimates of HIV prevalence and to inconsistent conclusions about the predictors of HIV status. In contrast, previous cross-sectional analyses found that nonresponse does not significantly bias the estimates of HIV prevalence. The difference in conclusions from cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of nonresponse can be attributed to two factors: the different definitions of what constitutes nonresponse in both contexts, and the risk profiles of the missed populations. In particular, although refusal and temporary absence are the major sources ofnonresponse in the cross-sectional contexts, attrition attributable to mortality and out-migration are additional sources of nonresponse in repeat testing. Evidence shows that out-migrants have higher HIV prevalence than nonmigrants, which could account for significant bias in the estimates of prevalence among participants in both tests observed in this study.     

Re-evaluating gender differences in self-rated health: The importance of cohort

Research examining gender differences in self-rated health (SRH) has typically not distinguished between age and cohort-related changes in the health of men and women over time. Using longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this study finds gender diffegrences in SRH may actually be an artifact of cohort. Prior to examining health across cohorts, women reported worse health than men. With the introduction of cohort to the models, no gender difference was found except in the earliest cohort (born 1924–1933). Historical context is therefore critical to understanding the health trajectories of women and men, which are not uniform across cohorts.     

Economic potential and entry into marriage and cohabitation

This article explores the relationship between economic potential and rates of entry into marriage and cohabitation. Using data from the 1990 census and the 1980-1992 High School and Beyond (Sophomore Cohort), we developed a method for explicitly estimating five time-varying measures of earnings potential. The analyses of union formation are based on an intergenerational panel study of parents and children, to which our measures of earnings potential were appended. The results indicate that all five measures of earnings potential strongly and positively influence the likelihood of marriage for men, but not for women. Earnings potential does not affect entry into cohabiting unions for either men or women.     

Religiousness and Fertility among European Muslims

Based on official data on religion, national origin, and other indicators of ethnic origin, Muslim fertility in 13 European countries is higher than that for other women, but in most countries with trend data the differences are diminishing over time. Fertility varies by country of origin of immigrants. Various European survey data show that higher proportions of Muslim women are married and their commitment to traditional family values is greater than among other women. Muslim women are more religious than non‐Muslim women and religiousness is directly associated with fertility. Among Muslim women, religiousness and commitment to family values are equally important for fertility, while for non‐Muslim women religiousness is much less important.     

Occupational Trajectories of Legal US Immigrants: Downgrading and Recovery

Data from the New Immigrant Survey 2003 are examined to analyze trajectories in occupational prestige between the last job abroad and the first US job and from the first US job to the current US job for a select sample of men and women. Incorporating the first job in the United States overcomes an important limitation faced by many previous studies that were generally restricted to a comparison of the last job abroad and the US job as measured at the time of the survey. Distinctions are made between class‐of‐admission groups, since the trajectories toward labor market success vary systematically along that dimension. Consistent with a model of immigrant occupational assimilation, all preference groups show a U‐shaped adjustment pattern with, on average, initial downgrading followed by subsequent ascension. However, although all groups exhibit a similar pattern, the trough of the U is deepest for refugees, who also experience the steepest subsequent upward climb.     

Differentials in the femininity ratio among centenarians: variations between northern and southern Italy from 1870

Significant differentials have been observed between Italian regions in the distribution of centenarians by sex, from two women per man in the south to over eight in certain regions in the north. In order to explain these differentials we studied the evolution of the femininity ratio (FR), using a longitudinal approach to follow the ageing process in two cohorts, and making use of nearly all the statistical data available since the time of the Unification of Italy in 1870. Significant differentials in the FR observed at the age of 100 are mainly due to mortality differentials among men over the age of 60. The high mortality of men in the north and their low mortality in the south are the main explanations of why the FRs are higher in the north and lower in the south. Mortality differentials among women have only a marginal impact.     

Historical changes in the household division of labor

A number of studies published in the 1970s asserted that the amount of time women spend doing housework shows no historical decline. This article draws on evidence from time-budget surveys—three from the United States (1965, 1975, and 1985) and three from the United Kingdom (1961, 1974, and 1984)—to investigate the evolution of housework time for men and women over the last three decades. Clearly much other than housework has changed over this period. More women have paid jobs, more men are unemployed, and families have gotten smaller on average. Even having controlled for such sociodemographic changes, we conclude that in the two countries, women in the 1980s do substantially less housework than those in equivalent circumstances in the 1960s, and that men do a little more than they did (although still much less than women). These changes correspond closely to developments in four other countries (Canada, Holland, Denmark, and Norway) for which historical time-budget evidence is available.     

The Great Convergence: Gender and Unpaid Work in Europe and the United States

Over the past decades, men's and women's time use in industrialized nations has changed dramatically, suggesting a gender revolution. Women increased their time in paid work and reduced time in unpaid activities, while men increased their time in unpaid work, but not enough to compensate for women's retreat. We investigate developments regarding men's and women's unpaid work across Europe and the United States, using time diary data from the mid‐1980s and onward. We find evidence for gender convergence in unpaid work over time, but different trends for housework and childcare. Gender convergence in housework primarily resulted from women reducing their time, whereas childcare time increased for both sexes, resulting in convergence only where men increased more than did women. Decomposition analyses show that trends in housework and childcare are explained by changes in behavior rather than compositional changes in population characteristics. Though level differences in unpaid work persist, our findings regarding trends support gender convergence in that they are general across country contexts that vary regarding policy and social norms about gender, family, and work.     

U.S. women at work

Women made up 43% of the U.S. labor force in 1980, up from 29% in 1950, and 52% of all women 16 and over were working or looking for work compared to 34% in 1950. The surge in women's employment is linked to more delayed marriage, divorce, and separation, women's increased education, lower fertility, rapid growth in clerical and service jobs, inflation, and changing attitudes toward "woman's place." Employment has risen fastest among married women, especially married mothers of children under 6, 45% of whom are now in the labor force. Some 44% of employed women now work fulltime the year round, but still average only $6 for every $10 earned by men working that amount. This is partly because most women remain segregated in low paying "women's jobs" with few chances for advancement. Among fulltime workers, women college graduates earn less than male high school dropouts. Working wives were still spending 6 times more time on housework than married men in 1975 and working mothers of preschool children are also hampered by a severe lack of daycare facilities. Children of working women, however, appear to develop normally. Equal employment opportunity and affirmative action measures have improved the climate for working women but not as much as for minorities. The federal income tax and social security systems still discriminate against 2 income families. Woman's position in the U.S. labor force should eventually improve with the inroads women are making in some male-dominated occupations and gains in job experience and seniority among younger women who now tend to stay in the labor force through the years of childbearing and early childrearing, unlike women in the 1950s and 1960s.     

Gender Differences in Mental Health Before and After Retirement:

A longitudinal research design was used to examine the relationship between retirement and mental health among 222 retirees (114 men and 108 women) at three different time periods: (I) at preretirement; (2) six months; and (3) one year later. Gender differences in the expression of symptoms, especially psychological anxiety, drinking problems, and health, were found across all three time periods. Retirement resulted in increases in drinking problems and psychological anxiety for both men and women. Intervention strategies are discussed and recommended based on how retirees experience symptoms. Gerontologists must recognize how significantly gender and retirement impact on the mental health of older persons and consider these factors in their practice.