Composite Indices of Development and Poverty: An Application to MDGs

The measurement of development or poverty as multidimensional phenomena is very difficult because there are several theoretical, methodological and empirical problems involved. The literature of composite indicators offers a wide variety of aggregation methods, all with their pros and cons. In this paper, we propose a new, alternative composite index denoted as MPI (Mazziotta-Pareto Index) which, starting from a linear aggregation, introduces penalties for the countries or geographical areas with ‘unbalanced’ values of the indicators. As an example of application of the MPI, we consider a set of indicators in order to measure the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and we present a comparison between HDI (Human Development Index) methodology, HPI (Human Poverty Index) methodology and MPI.     

Estimation of Disaggregate-Level Poverty Incidence in Odisha Under Area-Level Hierarchical Bayes Small Area Model

Sustainable development goal-1 of the United Nations is to end poverty in all its forms everywhere. The estimates of poverty related parameters obtained from large scale sample survey are often available at large domain level (e.g. state level). But, poverty rates are not uniformly distributed across the regions. The regional variations are masked in such large domain level estimates. However, for monitoring the progress of poverty alleviation programmes aimed at reduction of poverty often require micro or disaggregate level estimates. The traditional survey estimation approaches are not suitable for generating the reliable estimates at this level because of sample size problem. It is the main endeavor of Small Area Estimation (SAE) approach to produce micro level statistics with acceptable precision without incurring any extra cost and utilizing existing survey data. In this study, the Hierarchical Bayes approach of SAE has been applied to generate reliable and representative district level poverty incidence for the State of Odisha in India using the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey 2011–2012 data of National Sample Survey Office and linked with Population Census 2011. The results show the precise performance of model based estimates generated by SAE method to a greater extent than the direct survey estimates. A poverty map has also been produced to observe the spatial inequality in poverty distribution.

     

Methods for Small Area Population Forecasts: State-of-the-Art and Research Needs

Population Research and Policy Review - Small area population forecasts are widely used by government and business for a variety of planning, research and policy purposes, and often influence major...     

The Capability Approach and Fuzzy Poverty Measures: An Application to the South African Context

One way of making the capability approach (CA) operational uses fuzzy poverty measures. In this paper, we present a new approach to applying these measures in the South African context using responses to a questionnaire on ‘The Essentials of Life’ in conjunction with a methodology for dealing with the vagueness of poverty. Our results suggest very low cut-offs for people or households to classify as definitely poor for some social indicators. These cut-offs are far lower than those Klasen used in his application of the CA. The attempt to apply the CA using Cheli and Lemmi’s ‘totally fuzzy and relative’ poverty measure in conjunction with our approach to specifying cut-offs can lead to incoherence. This measure can, nonetheless, be useful when social indicators have a ‘relativist component’. While the Cerioli and Zani measure does not lead to such incoherence, it also has a serious weakness.     

浅析三峡库区移民过渡期的贫困问题

库区移民存在着历史性贫困。在搬迁后一段时间又面临着经济、文化、精神等新的贫困。贫困问题严重制约着移民的搬迁安置 ,从而影响国家的移民大业和库区经济的长远建设。经济上的补偿与扶持、区域文化的异地构建、精神心态的素质培育、文化教育手段的运用等都不失为库区移民过渡期贫困的解决良策。     

An Assessment of Vulnerability to Poverty in Punjab,Pakistan: Subjective Choices of Poverty Indicators

In general, the happiness literature has paid little attention to the relationship between physical appearance and well-being. In this paper, we examine the link between weight, height and well-being for three distinct samples in China given that attractiveness effects likely vary greatly across sociocultural contexts. As China has recently undergone rapid economic transformation in the urban areas, this empirical exercise is particularly interesting because it can highlight how changing social norms have affected the relationship between physical appearance and subjective well-being. For the rural and migrant samples, we find that for both men and women, big and tall individuals have higher levels of well-being. This is consistent with the notion that the strong are better off when more labor intensive work is the norm. For the urban sample and for urban males in particular, no well-being penalty is found for being obese, unlike previous results based on Western samples. It is very likely that the unique Chinese cultural practice of network building banquets and feasting is behind this finding.     

Operationalizing De-commodification and De-familization Outcomes via the Relative Poverty Approach: An Application to Western European Countries

This article develops an approach with which to operationalise the outcomes of de-commodification and de-familisation processes. Since the de-commodification and de-familisation concepts share an emphasis on ‘a socially acceptable standard of living for individuals’ with the notion of relative poverty, the income-poverty indicator has been adopted to develop pertinent national rates. In particular, since de-commodification outcomes concern people with a socially acceptable standard of living independently of sale of their labour power, the national proportions of individuals with an equivalised disposable income above the poverty threshold who have stopped working have been accounted for. On the other hand, given that de-familisation outcomes regard individuals with a socially acceptable standard of living aside from family relationships, the national percentages of persons who actually live alone, or simulated as living alone, with an equivalised disposable income above the poverty threshold have been considered. Moreover, exploiting the equivalised disposable income computation, pertinent micro-simulations are developed to capture the role of the state and the family in de-commodification outcomes, and the contribution of the market and the state to de-familisation outcomes. On the basis of the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions, an empirical application of this approach is then provided. Specifically, data for 16 European countries were used to compute the above-mentioned national rates. Furthermore, we checked whether our outcome figures exhibited any correspondence with the country-groups deriving from the classic welfare regime typologies or more in general with the measures resulting from the social policy structure.     

The Accuracy of Age-specific Population Estimates for Small Areas in Britain

Population estimates play an important role in the allocation of resources at many levels of government and commerce but little is known about the accuracy of age-specific population estimates. Such knowledge is crucial, as resource allocation is often targeted at populations of particular age, and decisions need to be based on the reliability of the estimates. This paper presents a multi-level statistical analysis of the accuracy of age-specific population estimates made for British local authorities in 1991. The aim of this work is to identify the factors that influence accuracy, and to investigate how these influences interact. Our analyses show that the following area characteristics are key factors: true population size; intercensal population change; and percentages of unemployed residents, armed forces residents, and students. In addition, we find that the overall type of method used to calculate estimates is important, and that its effect varies both with area characteristics and with age-group. Local census methods are found to be generally superior, but a low-cost apportionment method, if implemented well, may be as effective.     

Poverty Among The Elderly: An Application of a Collective Consumption Model in Brazil

Social Indicators Research - The growth of the elderly population and changes in household composition raise important questions regarding the level of well-being of the elderly in developing...     

低保线评估:基于需求层次与扩展线性支出法的测算

本文依据社会保障基本理论,将需求层次和扩展线性支出系统结合,测算2003-2010年全国平均的城乡居民低保线和2010年27省(市、区)城镇低保线,从测算低保线与城乡居民生活支出比重、与城乡居民可支配收入比重、与现行低保线和CPI之间联动机制,以及测算过程中收入依赖系数平稳下降等4个方面评价低保线的保障能力及ELES测算结果的合理性,并指出需要进一步改进的方面.     

中国生育率研究方法:30年回眸

改革开放30年是我国人口学及人口研究迅速成长的30年。生育率研究方法从一个侧面反映出改革开放以来我国人口学研究方法的发展。中国的生育率研究方法既有从西方引进的各种生育率指标和模型,也有中国学者为了适应自己的需要而改进和创建的方法和模型。笔者从生育率度量指标和生育率模型两个方面总结我国生育率研究方法的应用及变化。对在中国生育率研究中所使用的主要方法进行回顾并对这些方法对我国生育率研究的贡献进行总结。     

Estimating Mortality Level for Small Populations: An Evaluation of a Pair of Two-Census Methods

A pair of two-census methods of estimating mortality levels are tested with simulated census data. The populations considered range in size from 250 to 1500 individuals of each sex; censuses were taken at intervals of five and ten years. In general, the methods are resistant to bias, and yield variances similar in magnitude to those obtained using vital registration data and life table techniques for censored data. The two-census methods represent a substantial improvement over the techniques of mortality estimation previously available for small populations, since two reliable censuses are more likely to be available for these populations than complete vital registration.     

Estimates of Spatial Prices in India and Their Sensitivity to Alternative Estimation Methods and Choice of Commodities

This paper provides Indian evidence on sub-national PPPs that point to considerable spatial price heterogeneity within the country, based on Indian National Sample Survey (NSS) data. The prices of various commodities have been generated from the household specific unit values obtained from the information on expenditures and quantities from the NSS unit records. This paper shows that the CPD model, proposed in the cross country context, can be adapted to the household context to estimate spatial prices in the intra country context. The proposed CPD based model is shown to be formally equivalent to certain well known fixed weight price indices under certain parametric configurations. The empirical contribution includes a systematic comparison between the spatial price indices from alternative models, namely the CPD and utility based models, and the result that the utility based methods point to a much greater extent of spatial price heterogeneity than is suggested by the CPD type models. The results also record the sensitivity of the spatial price indices to the choice of commodities in the utility based approach. The pairwise comparison of estimates suggests that commodity selection may be more important than model selection in its impact on the spatial price estimates, though the latter is important as well. The study provides estimates of rural–urban differentials in spatial price indices that suggest some interesting differences between the constituent states. The results make a strong case for further research on the topic of sub-national PPPs in the context of large heterogeneous countries.     

民族地区城镇贫困动态演化与经济增长益贫性研究

本文利用FGT贫困指数对2000-2011年民族地区城镇绝对贫困和相对贫困进行了测度．分析了民族地区城镇贫困的动态演化特征。并利用减贫的收入、分配弹性以及贫困指数的Shapley分解。研究了民族地区经济增长益贫性问题。结果表明,民族地区城镇绝对贫困持续缓解,但受收入分配格局变化的影响,相对贫困问题开始凸显。经济增长的减贫效率体现出较为显著的阶段性和外部冲击敏感性。在制定和实施同质性减贫政策的同时．应该凸显贫困人口内部的异质性。同时,构建对本地城镇贫困人口更为包容和稳健的经济发展方式是未来民族地区实现城镇减贫的关键。     

Dynamics of Multidimensional Poverty and Uni-dimensional Income Poverty: An Evidence of Stability Analysis from China

Social Indicators Research - In this paper, we construct an illustrative multidimensional poverty index for China and compare it with income poverty using the panel data from multiple waves of the...     

Poverty Lines Based on Fuzzy Sets Theory and its Application to Malaysian Data

Defining the poverty line has been acknowledged as being highly variable by the majority of published literature. Despite long discussions and successes, poverty line has a number of problems due to its arbitrary nature. This paper proposes three measurements of poverty lines using membership functions based on fuzzy set theory. The three membership functions, namely exponential, trapezoidal and quadratic sigmoid together with their calculation steps are discussed. Average monthly household incomes of Malaysians are used to illustrate the proposed poverty line. Three new sets of poverty lines were derived for 3 years as numerical application to the proposed membership functions. The numerical results show the flexibility of poverty lines resulted from the composition of the proposed functions. It suggests that the official poverty line for Malaysians is too low thus creating an underestimation of the extent of poverty in Malaysia.     

Poverty Impact of Variations in Within-group and Between-group Inequality in Nigeria: New Estimates Using Two Household Survey Data

Social Indicators Research - In an unequal and fragile economy such as Nigeria, providing for the extreme poor, marginalized, disadvantaged, less privileged and vulnerable is still seen by elites...     

Spatial Variation in Seasonal Water Poverty Index for Laos: An Application of Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis

In this paper we analyze the preferences about job security using tools from behavioral economics. We focus on the non-pecuniary value of job security and specifically whether this value depends on the current position of employees as tenured or non-tenured. Using a sample of 107 Israeli social workers, randomly allocated between tenured and non-tenured positions, we demonstrate that the non-pecuniary value of job security is about 20% of the wage. We also found that this value depends on the point of reference of the employees. Those with tenure place a higher value on job security, as do those with a higher level of loss aversion.     

Comparative Assessment of Methods for Measuring Consensual Poverty: Sort Card Versus CAPI

Using data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, the purpose of this study is twofold. First, the study identifies coping strategies used by older adults. Second, the study examines the impact of older adults’ chosen coping strategies on mortality reduction. The study focuses specifically on differences in the use of religious and secular coping strategies among this population. The findings suggest that although coping strategies differ between those who self-classify as religious and those who self-classify as nonreligious, for both groups social approaches to coping (e.g., attending church and volunteering) are more likely than individual approaches (e.g., praying or active/passive coping) to reduce the risk of mortality. The most efficacious coping strategies, however, are those matched to characteristics of the individual.