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1.
Humans are continuously exposed to chemicals with suspected or proven endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). Risk management of EDCs presents a major unmet challenge because the available data for adverse health effects are generated by examining one compound at a time, whereas real‐life exposures are to mixtures of chemicals. In this work, we integrate epidemiological and experimental evidence toward a whole mixture strategy for risk assessment. To illustrate, we conduct the following four steps in a case study: (1) identification of single EDCs (“bad actors”)—measured in prenatal blood/urine in the SELMA study—that are associated with a shorter anogenital distance (AGD) in baby boys; (2) definition and construction of a “typical” mixture consisting of the “bad actors” identified in Step 1; (3) experimentally testing this mixture in an in vivo animal model to estimate a dose–response relationship and determine a point of departure (i.e., reference dose [RfD]) associated with an adverse health outcome; and (4) use a statistical measure of “sufficient similarity” to compare the experimental RfD (from Step 3) to the exposure measured in the human population and generate a “similar mixture risk indicator” (SMRI). The objective of this exercise is to generate a proof of concept for the systematic integration of epidemiological and experimental evidence with mixture risk assessment strategies. Using a whole mixture approach, we could find a higher rate of pregnant women under risk (13%) when comparing with the data from more traditional models of additivity (3%), or a compound‐by‐compound strategy (1.6%).  相似文献   

2.
We review approaches for characterizing “peak” exposures in epidemiologic studies and methods for incorporating peak exposure metrics in dose–response assessments that contribute to risk assessment. The focus was on potential etiologic relations between environmental chemical exposures and cancer risks. We searched the epidemiologic literature on environmental chemicals classified as carcinogens in which cancer risks were described in relation to “peak” exposures. These articles were evaluated to identify some of the challenges associated with defining and describing cancer risks in relation to peak exposures. We found that definitions of peak exposure varied considerably across studies. Of nine chemical agents included in our review of peak exposure, six had epidemiologic data used by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) in dose–response assessments to derive inhalation unit risk values. These were benzene, formaldehyde, styrene, trichloroethylene, acrylonitrile, and ethylene oxide. All derived unit risks relied on cumulative exposure for dose–response estimation and none, to our knowledge, considered peak exposure metrics. This is not surprising, given the historical linear no‐threshold default model (generally based on cumulative exposure) used in regulatory risk assessments. With newly proposed US EPA rule language, fuller consideration of alternative exposure and dose–response metrics will be supported. “Peak” exposure has not been consistently defined and rarely has been evaluated in epidemiologic studies of cancer risks. We recommend developing uniform definitions of “peak” exposure to facilitate fuller evaluation of dose response for environmental chemicals and cancer risks, especially where mechanistic understanding indicates that the dose response is unlikely linear and that short‐term high‐intensity exposures increase risk.  相似文献   

3.
A challenge for large‐scale environmental health investigations such as the National Children's Study (NCS), is characterizing exposures to multiple, co‐occurring chemical agents with varying spatiotemporal concentrations and consequences modulated by biochemical, physiological, behavioral, socioeconomic, and environmental factors. Such investigations can benefit from systematic retrieval, analysis, and integration of diverse extant information on both contaminant patterns and exposure‐relevant factors. This requires development, evaluation, and deployment of informatics methods that support flexible access and analysis of multiattribute data across multiple spatiotemporal scales. A new “Tiered Exposure Ranking” (TiER) framework, developed to support various aspects of risk‐relevant exposure characterization, is described here, with examples demonstrating its application to the NCS. TiER utilizes advances in informatics computational methods, extant database content and availability, and integrative environmental/exposure/biological modeling to support both “discovery‐driven” and “hypothesis‐driven” analyses. “Tier 1” applications focus on “exposomic” pattern recognition for extracting information from multidimensional data sets, whereas second and higher tier applications utilize mechanistic models to develop risk‐relevant exposure metrics for populations and individuals. In this article, “tier 1” applications of TiER explore identification of potentially causative associations among risk factors, for prioritizing further studies, by considering publicly available demographic/socioeconomic, behavioral, and environmental data in relation to two health endpoints (preterm birth and low birth weight). A “tier 2” application develops estimates of pollutant mixture inhalation exposure indices for NCS counties, formulated to support risk characterization for these endpoints. Applications of TiER demonstrate the feasibility of developing risk‐relevant exposure characterizations for pollutants using extant environmental and demographic/socioeconomic data.  相似文献   

4.
The benchmark dose (BMD) approach has gained acceptance as a valuable risk assessment tool, but risk assessors still face significant challenges associated with selecting an appropriate BMD/BMDL estimate from the results of a set of acceptable dose‐response models. Current approaches do not explicitly address model uncertainty, and there is an existing need to more fully inform health risk assessors in this regard. In this study, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) BMD estimation method taking model uncertainty into account is proposed as an alternative to current BMD estimation approaches for continuous data. Using the “hybrid” method proposed by Crump, two strategies of BMA, including both “maximum likelihood estimation based” and “Markov Chain Monte Carlo based” methods, are first applied as a demonstration to calculate model averaged BMD estimates from real continuous dose‐response data. The outcomes from the example data sets examined suggest that the BMA BMD estimates have higher reliability than the estimates from the individual models with highest posterior weight in terms of higher BMDL and smaller 90th percentile intervals. In addition, a simulation study is performed to evaluate the accuracy of the BMA BMD estimator. The results from the simulation study recommend that the BMA BMD estimates have smaller bias than the BMDs selected using other criteria. To further validate the BMA method, some technical issues, including the selection of models and the use of bootstrap methods for BMDL derivation, need further investigation over a more extensive, representative set of dose‐response data.  相似文献   

5.
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been labeled contaminants of concern due to their carcinogenic potential, insufficient toxicological data, environmental ubiquity, and inconsistencies in the composition of environmental mixtures. The Environmental Protection Agency is reevaluating current methods for assessing the toxicity of PAHs, including the assumption of toxic additivity in mixtures. This study was aimed at testing mixture interactions through in vitro cell culture experimentation, and modeling the toxicity using quantitative structure‐activity relationships (QSAR). Clone‐9 rat liver cells were used to analyze cellular proliferation, viability, and genotoxicity of 15 PAHs in single doses and binary mixtures. Tests revealed that many mixtures have nonadditive toxicity, but display varying mixture effects depending on the mixture composition. Many mixtures displayed antagonism, similar to other published studies. QSARs were then developed using the genetic function approximation algorithm to predict toxic activity both in single PAH congeners and in binary mixtures. Effective concentrations inhibiting 50% of the cell populations were modeled, with R2 = 0.90, 0.99, and 0.84, respectively. The QSAR mixture algorithms were then adjusted to account for the observed mixture interactions as well as the mixture composition (ratios) to assess the feasibility of QSARs for mixtures. Based on these results, toxic addition is improbable and therefore environmental PAH mixtures are likely to see nonadditive responses when complex interactions occur between components. Furthermore, QSAR may be a useful tool to help bridge these data gaps surrounding the assessment of human health risks that are associated with PAH exposures.  相似文献   

6.
Dose‐response analysis of binary developmental data (e.g., implant loss, fetal abnormalities) is best done using individual fetus data (identified to litter) or litter‐specific statistics such as number of offspring per litter and proportion abnormal. However, such data are not often available to risk assessors. Scientific articles usually present only dose‐group summaries for the number or average proportion abnormal and the total number of fetuses. Without litter‐specific data, it is not possible to estimate variances correctly (often characterized as a problem of overdispersion, intralitter correlation, or “litter effect”). However, it is possible to use group summary data when the design effect has been estimated for each dose group. Previous studies have demonstrated useful dose‐response and trend test analyses based on design effect estimates using litter‐specific data from the same study. This simplifies the analysis but does not help when litter‐specific data are unavailable. In the present study, we show that summary data on fetal malformations can be adjusted satisfactorily using estimates of the design effect based on historical data. When adjusted data are then analyzed with models designed for binomial responses, the resulting benchmark doses are similar to those obtained from analyzing litter‐level data with nested dichotomous models.  相似文献   

7.
Richard A. Canady 《Risk analysis》2010,30(11):1663-1670
A September 2008 workshop sponsored by the Society for Risk Analysis( 1 ) on risk assessment methods for nanoscale materials explored “nanotoxicology” in risk assessment. A general conclusion of the workshop was that, while research indicates that some nanoscale materials are toxic, the information presented at the workshop does not indicate the need for a conceptually different approach for risk assessment on nanoscale materials, compared to other materials. However, the toxicology discussions did identify areas of uncertainty that present a challenge for the assessment of nanoscale materials. These areas include novel metrics, characterizing multivariate dynamic mixtures, identification of toxicologically relevant properties and “impurities” for nanoscale characteristics, and characterizing persistence, toxicokinetics, and weight of evidence in consideration of the dynamic nature of the mixtures. The discussion also considered “nanomaterial uncertainty factors” for health risk values like the Environmental Protection Agency's reference dose (RfD). Similar to the general opinions for risk assessment, participants expressed that completing a data set regarding toxicity, or extrapolation between species, sensitive individuals, or durations of exposure, were not qualitatively different considerations for nanoscale materials in comparison to all chemicals, and therefore, a “nanomaterial uncertainty factor” for all nanomaterials does not seem appropriate. However, the quantitative challenges may require new methods and approaches to integrate the information and the uncertainty.  相似文献   

8.
This article explores the use of an approach for setting default values for the noncancer toxicity, developed as part of the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC), for the evaluation of the chronic noncarcinogenic effects of certain chemical mixtures. Individuals are exposed to many mixtures where there are little or no toxicological data on some or all of the mixture components. The approach developed in the TTC can provide a basis for conservative estimates of the toxicity of the mixture components when compound-specific data are not available. The application of this approach to multiple chemicals in a mixture, however, has implications for the statistical assumptions made in developing component-based estimates of mixtures. Specifically, conservative assumptions that are appropriate for one compound may become overly conservative when applied to all components of a mixture. This overestimation can be investigated by modeling the uncertainty in toxicity standards. In this article the approach is applied to both hypothetical and actual examples of chemical mixtures and the potential for overestimation is investigated. The results indicate that the use of the approach leads to conservative estimates of mixture toxicity and therefore its use is most appropriate for screening assessments of mixtures.  相似文献   

9.
This article describes several approaches for estimating the benchmark dose (BMD) in a risk assessment study with quantal dose‐response data and when there are competing model classes for the dose‐response function. Strategies involving a two‐step approach, a model‐averaging approach, a focused‐inference approach, and a nonparametric approach based on a PAVA‐based estimator of the dose‐response function are described and compared. Attention is raised to the perils involved in data “double‐dipping” and the need to adjust for the model‐selection stage in the estimation procedure. Simulation results are presented comparing the performance of five model selectors and eight BMD estimators. An illustration using a real quantal‐response data set from a carcinogenecity study is provided.  相似文献   

10.
Characterizing all possible chemical mixtures in drinking water is a potentially overwhelming project, and the task of assessing each mixture's net toxicity even more daunting. We propose that analyzing occurrence information on mixtures in drinking water may help to narrow the priorities and inform the approaches taken by researchers in mixture toxicology. To illustrate the utility of environmental data for refining the mixtures problem, we use a recent compilation of national ground-water-quality data to examine proposed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) models of noncancer mixture toxicity. We use data on the occurrence of binary and ternary mixtures of arsenic, cadmium, and manganese to parameterize an additive model and compute hazard index scores for each drinking-water source in the data set. We also use partially parameterized interaction models to perform a bounding analysis estimating the interaction potential of several binary and ternary mixtures for which the toxicological literature is limited. From these results, we estimate a relative value of additional toxicological information for each mixture. For example, we find that according to the U.S. EPA's interaction model, the levels of arsenic and cadmium found in U.S. drinking water are unlikely to have synergistic cardiovascular effects, but the same mixture's potential for synergistic neurological effects merits further study. Similar analysis could in future be used to prioritize toxicological studies based on their potential to reduce scientific and regulatory uncertainty. Environmental data may also provide a means to explore the implications of alternative risk models for the toxicity and interaction of complex mixtures.  相似文献   

11.
Dose‐response models in microbial risk assessment consider two steps in the process ultimately leading to illness: from exposure to (asymptomatic) infection, and from infection to (symptomatic) illness. Most data and theoretical approaches are available for the exposure‐infection step; the infection‐illness step has received less attention. Furthermore, current microbial risk assessment models do not account for acquired immunity. These limitations may lead to biased risk estimates. We consider effects of both dose dependency of the conditional probability of illness given infection, and acquired immunity to risk estimates, and demonstrate their effects in a case study on exposure to Campylobacter jejuni. To account for acquired immunity in risk estimates, an inflation factor is proposed. The inflation factor depends on the relative rates of loss of protection over exposure. The conditional probability of illness given infection is based on a previously published model, accounting for the within‐host dynamics of illness. We find that at low (average) doses, the infection‐illness model has the greatest impact on risk estimates, whereas at higher (average) doses and/or increased exposure frequencies, the acquired immunity model has the greatest impact. The proposed models are strongly nonlinear, and reducing exposure is not expected to lead to a proportional decrease in risk and, under certain conditions, may even lead to an increase in risk. The impact of different dose‐response models on risk estimates is particularly pronounced when introducing heterogeneity in the population exposure distribution.  相似文献   

12.
《Risk analysis》2018,38(8):1672-1684
A disease burden (DB) evaluation for environmental pathogens is generally performed using disability‐adjusted life years with the aim of providing a quantitative assessment of the health hazard caused by pathogens. A critical step in the preparation for this evaluation is the estimation of morbidity between exposure and disease occurrence. In this study, the method of a traditional dose–response analysis was first reviewed, and then a combination of the theoretical basis of a “single‐hit” and an “infection‐illness” model was performed by incorporating two critical factors: the “infective coefficient” and “infection duration.” This allowed a dose–morbidity model to be built for direct use in DB calculations. In addition, human experimental data for typical intestinal pathogens were obtained for model validation, and the results indicated that the model was well fitted and could be further used for morbidity estimation. On this basis, a real case of a water reuse project was selected for model application, and the morbidity as well as the DB caused by intestinal pathogens during water reuse was evaluated. The results show that the DB attributed to Enteroviruses was significant, while that for enteric bacteria was negligible. Therefore, water treatment technology should be further improved to reduce the exposure risk of Enteroviruses . Since road flushing was identified as the major exposure route, human contact with reclaimed water through this pathway should be limited. The methodology proposed for model construction not only makes up for missing data of morbidity during risk evaluation, but is also necessary to quantify the maximum possible DB.  相似文献   

13.
The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in 2012 upgraded its hazard characterization of diesel engine exhaust (DEE) to “carcinogenic to humans.” The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) cohort and nested case‐control studies of lung cancer mortality in eight U.S. nonmetal mines were influential in IARC's determination. We conducted a reanalysis of the DEMS case‐control data to evaluate its suitability for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). Our reanalysis used conditional logistic regression and adjusted for cigarette smoking in a manner similar to the original DEMS analysis. However, we included additional estimates of DEE exposure and adjustment for radon exposure. In addition to applying three DEE exposure estimates developed by DEMS, we applied six alternative estimates. Without adjusting for radon, our results were similar to those in the original DEMS analysis: all but one of the nine DEE exposure estimates showed evidence of an association between DEE exposure and lung cancer mortality, with trend slopes differing only by about a factor of two. When exposure to radon was adjusted, the evidence for a DEE effect was greatly diminished, but was still present in some analyses that utilized the three original DEMS DEE exposure estimates. A DEE effect was not observed when the six alternative DEE exposure estimates were utilized and radon was adjusted. No consistent evidence of a DEE effect was found among miners who worked only underground. This article highlights some issues that should be addressed in any use of the DEMS data in developing a QRA for DEE.  相似文献   

14.
A challenge with multiple chemical risk assessment is the need to consider the joint behavior of chemicals in mixtures. To address this need, pharmacologists and toxicologists have developed methods over the years to evaluate and test chemical interaction. In practice, however, testing of chemical interaction more often comprises ad hoc binary combinations and rarely examines higher order combinations. One explanation for this practice is the belief that there are simply too many possible combinations of chemicals to consider. Indeed, under stochastic conditions the possible number of chemical combinations scales geometrically as the pool of chemicals increases. However, the occurrence of chemicals in the environment is determined by factors, economic in part, which favor some chemicals over others. We investigate methods from the field of biogeography, originally developed to study avian species co‐occurrence patterns, and adapt these approaches to examine chemical co‐occurrence. These methods were applied to a national survey of pesticide residues in 168 child care centers from across the country. Our findings show that pesticide co‐occurrence in the child care center was not random but highly structured, leading to the co‐occurrence of specific pesticide combinations. Thus, ecological studies of species co‐occurrence parallel the issue of chemical co‐occurrence at specific locations. Both are driven by processes that introduce structure in the pattern of co‐occurrence. We conclude that the biogeographical tools used to determine when this structure occurs in ecological studies are relevant to evaluations of pesticide mixtures for exposure and risk assessment.  相似文献   

15.
This article presents a regression‐tree‐based meta‐analysis of rodent pulmonary toxicity studies of uncoated, nonfunctionalized carbon nanotube (CNT) exposure. The resulting analysis provides quantitative estimates of the contribution of CNT attributes (impurities, physical dimensions, and aggregation) to pulmonary toxicity indicators in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid: neutrophil and macrophage count, and lactate dehydrogenase and total protein concentrations. The method employs classification and regression tree (CART) models, techniques that are relatively insensitive to data defects that impair other types of regression analysis: high dimensionality, nonlinearity, correlated variables, and significant quantities of missing values. Three types of analysis are presented: the RT, the random forest (RF), and a random‐forest‐based dose‐response model. The RT shows the best single model supported by all the data and typically contains a small number of variables. The RF shows how much variance reduction is associated with every variable in the data set. The dose‐response model is used to isolate the effects of CNT attributes from the CNT dose, showing the shift in the dose‐response caused by the attribute across the measured range of CNT doses. It was found that the CNT attributes that contribute the most to pulmonary toxicity were metallic impurities (cobalt significantly increased observed toxicity, while other impurities had mixed effects), CNT length (negatively correlated with most toxicity indicators), CNT diameter (significantly positively associated with toxicity), and aggregate size (negatively correlated with cell damage indicators and positively correlated with immune response indicators). Increasing CNT N2‐BET‐specific surface area decreased toxicity indicators.  相似文献   

16.
This study assessed the health risks via inhalation and derived the occupational exposure limit (OEL) for the carbon nanotube (CNT) group rather than individual CNT material. We devised two methods: the integration of the intratracheal instillation (IT) data with the inhalation (IH) data, and the “biaxial approach.” A four‐week IH test and IT test were performed in rats exposed to representative materials to obtain the no observed adverse effect level, based on which the OEL was derived. We used the biaxial approach to conduct a relative toxicity assessment of six types of CNTs. An OEL of 0.03 mg/m3 was selected as the criterion for the CNT group. We proposed that the OEL be limited to 15 years. We adopted adaptive management, in which the values are reviewed whenever new data are obtained. The toxicity level was found to be correlated with the Brunauer‐Emmett‐Teller (BET)‐specific surface area (BET‐SSA) of CNT, suggesting the BET‐SSA to have potential for use in toxicity estimation. We used the published exposure data and measurement results of dustiness tests to compute the risk in relation to particle size at the workplace and showed that controlling micron‐sized respirable particles was of utmost importance. Our genotoxicity studies indicated that CNT did not directly interact with genetic materials. They supported the concept that, even if CNT is genotoxic, it is secondary genotoxicity mediated via a pathway of genotoxic damage resulting from oxidative DNA attack by free radicals generated during CNT‐elicited inflammation. Secondary genotoxicity appears to involve a threshold.  相似文献   

17.
《Risk analysis》2018,38(6):1143-1153
The benchmark dose (BMD) approach is increasingly used as a preferred approach for dose–effect analysis, but standard experimental designs are generally not optimized for BMD analysis. The aim of this study was to evaluate how the use of unequally sized dose groups affects the quality of BMD estimates in toxicity testing, with special consideration of the total burden of animal distress. We generated continuous dose–effect data by Monte Carlo simulation using two dose–effect curves based on endpoints with different shape parameters. Eighty‐five designs, each with four dose groups of unequal size, were examined in scenarios ranging from low‐ to high‐dose placements and with a total number of animals set to 40, 80, or 200. For each simulation, a BMD value was estimated and compared with the “true” BMD. In general, redistribution of animals from higher to lower dose groups resulted in an improved precision of the calculated BMD value as long as dose placements were high enough to detect a significant trend in the dose–effect data with sufficient power. The improved BMD precision and the associated reduction of the number of animals exposed to the highest dose, where chemically induced distress is most likely to occur, are favorable for the reduction and refinement principles. The result thereby strengthen BMD‐aligned design of experiments as a means for more accurate hazard characterization along with animal welfare improvements.  相似文献   

18.
19.
Quantitative risk assessments for physical, chemical, biological, occupational, or environmental agents rely on scientific studies to support their conclusions. These studies often include relatively few observations, and, as a result, models used to characterize the risk may include large amounts of uncertainty. The motivation, development, and assessment of new methods for risk assessment is facilitated by the availability of a set of experimental studies that span a range of dose‐response patterns that are observed in practice. We describe construction of such a historical database focusing on quantal data in chemical risk assessment, and we employ this database to develop priors in Bayesian analyses. The database is assembled from a variety of existing toxicological data sources and contains 733 separate quantal dose‐response data sets. As an illustration of the database's use, prior distributions for individual model parameters in Bayesian dose‐response analysis are constructed. Results indicate that including prior information based on curated historical data in quantitative risk assessments may help stabilize eventual point estimates, producing dose‐response functions that are more stable and precisely estimated. These in turn produce potency estimates that share the same benefit. We are confident that quantitative risk analysts will find many other applications and issues to explore using this database.  相似文献   

20.
This study's objective is to assess the risk of asbestos‐related disease being contracted by past users of cosmetic talcum powder.  To our knowledge, no risk assessment studies using exposure data from historical exposures or chamber simulations have been published. We conducted activity‐based sampling with cosmetic talcum powder samples from five opened and previously used containers that are believed to have been first manufactured and sold in the 1960s and 1970s.  These samples had been subject to conflicting claims of asbestos content; samples with the highest claimed asbestos content were tested.  The tests were conducted in simulated‐bathroom controlled chambers with volunteers who were talc users.  Air sampling filters were prepared by direct preparation techniques and analyzed by phase contrast microscopy (PCM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) with energy‐dispersive x‐ray (EDX) spectra, and selective area diffraction (SAED).  TEM analysis for asbestos resulted in no confirmed asbestos fibers and only a single fiber classified as “ambiguous.”  Hypothetical treatment of this fiber as if it were asbestos yields a risk of 9.6 × 10?7 (under one in one million) for a lifetime user of this cosmetic talcum powder.  The exposure levels associated with these results range from zero to levels far below those identified in the epidemiology literature as posing a risk for asbestos‐related disease, and substantially below published historical environmental background levels.  The approaches used for this study have potential application to exposure evaluations of other talc or asbestos‐containing materials and consumer products.  相似文献   

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