The European Commission''s White Paper "Strategy for a Future Chemicals Policy": A Review

The European Commission has proposed a radical new policy for the regulation of chemicals in the EU in the form of a White Paper. The current system has separate regulatory provisions for "new" chemicals (introduced to the market since September 18, 1981) and "existing" chemicals (on the market before September 18,1981). The proposed future policy will have a single unified regulatory system for all chemicals, which should result in better regulation of chemicals in the EU single market. It will be better because risk assessments will be targeted at the chemicals of greatest concern. Furthermore, the system will be streamlined, making regulatory decisions faster, and thus reducing the so-called burden of the past (the large number of chemicals that have never been assessed for their risks to human health or the environment). The new system incorporates the precautionary principle, which will be applied where there is an early indication of unacceptable risk or where there is undue delay in the regulatory process. Moreover, the new strategy is intended to promote greater transparency for all stakeholders.     

Making Sense of Risk—A Sociological Perspective on the Management of Risk

This article describes how risk has been conceptualized in the business and organizational literature through four distinct transformations: from the techno‐scientific perspective to the cognitive, the social‐cultural, and, finally, to the constructionist perspective. Each domain conceptualizes risk in different ways, as organizations have found it difficult to understand and mitigate using the risk management tools available. Conceptualizing risk as sensemaking becomes relevant due to the complexity of information available to the risk manager, and, coupled with time constraints, this means that risk managers increasingly rely on making sense of possible threats rather than on the accuracy of the information received. This shift presents four contributions to the current literature. First, it suggests that the role of risk management is shifting from being technical in nature to being about risk sensemaking, where the manager engages with the social and physical environment with the aim of acquiring cues that could indicate how future events will unfold. Second, a sensemaking perspective implies a shift in the use of risk management systems from being “containers” of knowledge about past risk events to lending legitimacy to the plausibility of the success of future decisions. Third, the role of the risk manager in managing individual risks changes and becomes one of managing everything using the social networks and systems available as indicators of future risk events. Finally, the risk manager and the systems he or she relies upon are regarded as a source of risk in themselves as both act as gatekeepers for organizational risk decision making.     

Risk‐Informed Regulation and Safety Management of Nuclear Power Plants—On the Prevention of Severe Accidents

There are four operating nuclear power plant (NPP) units in Finland. The Teollisuuden Voima (TVO) power company has two 840 MWe BWR units supplied by Asea‐Atom at the Olkiluoto site. The Fortum corporation (formerly IVO) has two 500 MWe VVER 440/213 units at the Loviisa site. In addition, a 1600 MWe European Pressurized Water Reactor supplied by AREVA NP (formerly the Framatome ANP—Siemens AG Consortium) is under construction at the Olkiluoto site. Recently, the Finnish Parliament ratified the government Decision in Principle that the utilities' applications to build two new NPP units are in line with the total good of the society. The Finnish utilities, Fenno power company, and TVO company are in progress of qualifying the type of the new nuclear builds. In Finland, risk‐informed applications are formally integrated in the regulatory process of NPPs that are already in the early design phase and these are to run through the construction and operation phases all through the entire plant service time. A plant‐specific full‐scope probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is required for each NPP. PRAs shall cover internal events, area events (fires, floods), and external events such as harsh weather conditions and seismic events in all operating modes. Special attention is devoted to the use of various risk‐informed PRA applications in the licensing of Olkiluoto 3 NPP.     

The Essential Elements of a Risk Governance Framework for Current and Future Nanotechnologies

Societies worldwide are investing considerable resources into the safe development and use of nanomaterials. Although each of these protective efforts is crucial for governing the risks of nanomaterials, they are insufficient in isolation. What is missing is a more integrative governance approach that goes beyond legislation. Development of this approach must be evidence based and involve key stakeholders to ensure acceptance by end users. The challenge is to develop a framework that coordinates the variety of actors involved in nanotechnology and civil society to facilitate consideration of the complex issues that occur in this rapidly evolving research and development area. Here, we propose three sets of essential elements required to generate an effective risk governance framework for nanomaterials. (1) Advanced tools to facilitate risk‐based decision making, including an assessment of the needs of users regarding risk assessment, mitigation, and transfer. (2) An integrated model of predicted human behavior and decision making concerning nanomaterial risks. (3) Legal and other (nano‐specific and general) regulatory requirements to ensure compliance and to stimulate proactive approaches to safety. The implementation of such an approach should facilitate and motivate good practice for the various stakeholders to allow the safe and sustainable future development of nanotechnology.     

Advancing Risk‐Informed Decision Making in Managing Defense Nuclear Waste in the United States: Opportunities and Challenges for Risk Analysis

An omnibus spending bill in 2014 directed the Department of Energy to analyze how effectively Department of Energy (DOE) identifies, programs, and executes its plans to address public health and safety risks that remain as part of DOE's remaining environmental cleanup liabilities. A committee identified two dozen issues and associated recommendations for the DOE, other federal agencies, and the U.S. Congress to consider, as well as other stakeholders such as states and tribal nations. In regard to risk assessment, the committee described a risk review process that uses available data, expert experience, identifies major data gaps, permits input from key stakeholders, and creates an ordered set of risks based on what is known. Probabilistic risk assessments could be a follow‐up from these risk reviews. In regard to risk management, the states, in particular, have become major drivers of how resources are driven. States use different laws, different priorities, and challenge DOE's policies in different ways. Land use decisions vary, technology choices are different, and other notable variations are apparent. The cost differences associated with these differences are marked. The net result is that resources do not necessarily go to the most prominent human health and safety risks, as seen from the national level.     

管理学合法化运动的历史、危机与前瞻

在管理学作为一个学科、管理学院作为大学中的一个专业学院取得其合法性的同时,管理科学理论对于管理实践者的吸引力却越来越弱。主流管理学虽然获得"学科"的合法性,却丧失了"实践"的合法性。尽管管理科学研究的信奉者强调每一个具体研究问题中的证伪,然而,"管理现象的普适性"本身无法被证实或被证伪,因此将实证方法无限制推广是"不科学"的。管理学合法化运动对于"实证主义研究方法"的辩护实际上是对一种"观念"的辩护,是对一种唯科学论的"意识形态"的辩护。管理学科学合法化运动在当代的逐步消解是必然的。多范式的对立、冲突与融合将取代"实证主义独大"的位置而成为未来管理学的主流思潮。     

Integrating a Top‐Down and a Bottom‐Up Approach: Formal and Informal Risk‐Handling Strategies in a Utility Company

In this study, we bring together a top‐down and a bottom‐up approach of risk handling. We do so by conceptualizing and qualitatively and quantitatively measuring formal and informal risk‐handling strategies in a Dutch utility company. We conceive of formal risk handling as regulating, training, and educating safety and enforcing rule compliance, while we distinguish three different informal risk‐handling strategies: discretionary specialization, tacit knowledge, and taking personal responsibility. We show that the formal risk‐handling strategy and the three informal risk‐handling strategies can be measured separately. Hence, we have validated the measurement of all four strategies derived from two different risk‐handling approaches. Moreover, we have demonstrated that the perceived use of the four strategies has different effects on unsafe behavior: formal risk handling and tacit knowledge decrease it, discretion increases it, and taking personal responsibility has no effect on unsafe behavior.     

Farmers’ Risk‐Based Decision Making Under Pervasive Uncertainty: Cognitive Thresholds and Hazy Hedging

Researchers in judgment and decision making have long debunked the idea that we are economically rational optimizers. However, problematic assumptions of rationality remain common in studies of agricultural economics and climate change adaptation, especially those that involve quantitative models. Recent movement toward more complex agent‐based modeling provides an opportunity to reconsider the empirical basis for farmer decision making. Here, we reconceptualize farmer decision making from the ground up, using an in situ mental models approach to analyze weather and climate risk management. We assess how large‐scale commercial grain farmers in South Africa (n = 90) coordinate decisions about weather, climate variability, and climate change with those around other environmental, agronomic, economic, political, and personal risks that they manage every day. Contrary to common simplifying assumptions, we show that these farmers tend to satisfice rather than optimize as they face intractable and multifaceted uncertainty; they make imperfect use of limited information; they are differently averse to different risks; they make decisions on multiple time horizons; they are cautious in responding to changing conditions; and their diverse risk perceptions contribute to important differences in individual behaviors. We find that they use two important nonoptimizing strategies, which we call cognitive thresholds and hazy hedging, to make practical decisions under pervasive uncertainty. These strategies, evident in farmers' simultaneous use of conservation agriculture and livestock to manage weather risks, are the messy in situ performance of naturalistic decision‐making techniques. These results may inform continued research on such behavioral tendencies in narrower lab‐ and modeling‐based studies.     

Forty Years of Food Safety Risk Assessment: A History and Analysis

Before the founding of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) in 1980, food safety in the United States had long been a concern, but there was a lack of systematic methods to assess food-related risks. In 1906, the U.S. Congress passed, and President Roosevelt signed, the Pure Food and Drug Act and the Meat Inspection Act to regulate food safety at the federal level. This Act followed the publication of multiple reports of food contamination, culminating in Upton Sinclair's novel The Jungle, which highlighted food and worker abuses in the meatpacking industry. Later in the 20th century, important developments in agricultural and food technology greatly increased food production. But chemical exposures from agricultural and other practices resulted in major amendments to federal food laws, including the Delaney Clause, aimed specifically at cancer-causing chemicals. Later in the 20th century, when quantitative risk assessment methods were given greater scientific status in a seminal National Research Council report, food safety risk assessment became more systematized. Additionally, in these last 40 years, food safety research has resulted in increased understanding of a range of health effects from foodborne chemicals, and technological developments have improved U.S. food safety from farm to fork by offering new ways to manage risks. We discuss the history of food safety and the role risk analysis has played in its evolution, starting from over a century ago, but focusing on the last 40 years. While we focus on chemical risk assessment in the U.S., we also discuss microbial risk assessment and international food safety.     

Risk Perception,Experience, and Objective Risk: A Cross‐National Study with European Emergency Survivors

Understanding public risk perceptions and their underlying processes is important in order to learn more about the way people interpret and respond to hazardous emergency events. Direct experience with an involuntary hazard has been found to heighten the perceived risk of experiencing the same hazard and its consequences in the future, but it remains unclear if cross‐over effects are possible (i.e., experience with one hazard influencing perceived risk for other hazards also). Furthermore, the impact of objective risk and country of residence on perceived risk is not well understood. As part of the BeSeCu (Behavior, Security, and Culture) Project, a sample of 1,045 survivors of emergencies from seven European countries (i.e., Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden, Spain, Turkey, and Italy) was drawn. Results revealed heightened perceived risk for emergency events (i.e., domestic and public fires, earthquakes, floods, and terrorist attacks) when the event had been experienced previously plus some evidence of cross‐over effects, although these effects were not so strong. The largest country differences in perceived risk were observed for earthquakes, but this effect was significantly reduced by taking into account the objective earthquake risk. For fires, floods, terrorist attacks, and traffic accidents, only small country differences in perceived risk were found. Further studies including a larger number of countries are welcomed.     

A Definition and Categorization System for Advanced Materials: The Foundation for Risk‐Informed Environmental Health and Safety Testing

Novel materials with unique or enhanced properties relative to conventional materials are being developed at an increasing rate. These materials are often referred to as advanced materials (AdMs) and they enable technological innovations that can benefit society. Despite their benefits, however, the unique characteristics of many AdMs, including many nanomaterials, are poorly understood and may pose environmental safety and occupational health (ESOH) risks that are not readily determined by traditional risk assessment methods. To assess these risks while keeping up with the pace of development, technology developers and risk assessors frequently employ risk‐screening methods that depend on a clear definition for the materials that are to be assessed (e.g., engineered nanomaterial) as well as a method for binning materials into categories for ESOH risk prioritization. The term advanced material lacks a consensus definition and associated categorization or grouping system for risk screening. In this study, we aim to establish a practitioner‐driven definition for AdMs and a practitioner‐validated framework for categorizing AdMs into conceptual groupings based on material characteristics. Results from multiple workshops and interviews with practitioners provide consistent differentiation between AdMs and conventional materials, offer functional nomenclature for application science, and provide utility for future ESOH risk assessment prioritization. The definition and categorization framework established here serve as a first step in determining if and when there is a need for specific ESOH and regulatory screening for an AdM as well as the type and extent of risk‐related information that should be collected or generated for AdMs and AdM‐enabled technologies.     

Aging and Cardiometabolic Risk in European HEMS Pilots: An Assessment of Occupational Old‐Age Limits as a Regulatory Risk Management Strategy

Old‐age limits are imposed in some occupations in an effort to ensure public safety. In aviation, the “Age 60 Rule” limits permissible flight operations conducted by pilots aged 60 and over. Using a retrospective cohort design, we assessed this rule's validity by comparing age‐related change rates of cardiometabolic incapacitation risk markers in European helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS) pilots near age 60 with those in younger pilots. Specifically, individual clinical, laboratory, and electrocardiogram (ECG)‐based risk markers and an overall cardiovascular event risk score were determined from aeromedical examination records of 66 German, Austrian, Polish, and Czech HEMS pilots (average follow‐up 8.52 years). Risk marker change rates were assessed using linear mixed models and generalized additive models. Body mass index increases over time were slower in pilots near age 60 compared to younger pilots, and fasting glucose levels increased only in the latter. Whereas the lipid profile remained unchanged in the latter, it improved in the former. An ECG‐based arrhythmia risk marker increased in younger pilots, which persisted in the older pilots. Six‐month risk of a fatal cardiovascular event (in or out of cockpit) was estimated between 0% and 0.3%. Between 41% and 95% of risk marker variability was due to unexplained time‐stable between‐person differences. To conclude, the cardiometabolic risk marker profile of HEMS pilots appears to improve over time in pilots near age 60, compared to younger pilots. Given large stable interindividual differences, we recommend individualized risk assessment of HEMS pilots near age 60 instead of general grounding.     

European management teaching and research: Reflections on the life and work of A. Blanqui

Europe’s first historian of political thought, author of the preface to The Wealth of Nations, and also the first figure to acquire a business school in his lifetime and become its dean, Adolphe Blanqui (1798-1854) has nevertheless become a somewhat neglected figure. As we approach the bicentenary of the school he presided – the oldest of the great 19th century management training institutes, which still exists today – in this essay I propose to place his life and work in context before exploring the principal thrust of his educational philosophy and his lasting heritage. Blanqui was a great European, devoted to certain principles in the education of future entrepreneurs and ‘traders’: combatting ugliness, learning how to deal with difference, and leading by example while also keeping pace with technical evolutions. I conclude by insisting on the importance, then and now, of situating management training within the context of geopolitical, aesthetic and ethical factors.     

Precautionary Regulation in Europe and the United States: A Quantitative Comparison

Much attention has been addressed to the question of whether Europe or the United States adopts a more precautionary stance to the regulation of potential environmental, health, and safety risks. Some commentators suggest that Europe is more risk-averse and precautionary, whereas the United States is seen as more risk-taking and optimistic about the prospects for new technology. Others suggest that the United States is more precautionary because its regulatory process is more legalistic and adversarial, while Europe is more lax and corporatist in its regulations. The flip-flop hypothesis claims that the United States was more precautionary than Europe in the 1970s and early 1980s, and that Europe has become more precautionary since then. We examine the levels and trends in regulation of environmental, health, and safety risks since 1970. Unlike previous research, which has studied only a small set of prominent cases selected nonrandomly, we develop a comprehensive list of almost 3,000 risks and code the relative stringency of regulation in Europe and the United States for each of 100 risks randomly selected from that list for each year from 1970 through 2004. Our results suggest that: (a) averaging over risks, there is no significant difference in relative precaution over the period, (b) weakly consistent with the flip-flop hypothesis, there is some evidence of a modest shift toward greater relative precaution of European regulation since about 1990, although (c) there is a diversity of trends across risks, of which the most common is no change in relative precaution (including cases where Europe and the United States are equally precautionary and where Europe or the United States has been consistently more precautionary). The overall finding is of a mixed and diverse pattern of relative transatlantic precaution over the period.     

经济复苏走势、经济刺激政策及其退出计划有关问题的国内外综述

为应对本轮经济危机,各国政府纷纷出台经济刺激计划及相应配套政策,以遏制经济增长显著下滑的态势。随着经济危机渐行渐远,如何实现经济刺激计划的平稳退出,成为各国政府亟需面对的首要问题,理论界也对此展开了激烈的探讨。本文以判断经济复苏走势为切入点,选择经济刺激计划退出过程中面临的相关问题为研究对象,对国内外学者的研究成果进行综述,并在此基础上展望了未来我国宏观经济政策走向。     

风险环境下企业信息系统项目控制对绩效的影响机制研究:基于项目经理和用户代表的双重视角

虽然当前项目管理水平不断提高,但是企业信息系统项目实施的成功率仍然不容乐观。项目干系人缺乏准确的相互认知和角色定位,以及风险与控制的关系无法有效处理是导致项目绩效偏低的重要原因。为了从不同视角探索风险和控制对企业信息系统项目绩效的共同作用,通过对65位项目经理和63位用户代表所经历的128个项目的调查,利用结构方程模型进行实证分析,并采用层次回归分析技术进行检验。实证结果表明,正式控制和非正式控制对信息系统项目绩效都具有积极的影响,但是项目经理认为正式控制具有更加重要的作用,而用户代表认为非正式控制的作用更为显著。此外,项目经理和用户代表均认为组织风险和技术风险会减弱正式和非正式控制对绩效的有效作用。因此在控制方式的选择和组合上不仅要基于项目自身的特点,而且要基于干系人的角色。同时,信息系统项目绩效并非单纯由成功或失败因素所决定,而是取决于两类因素的均衡程度。研究结论为信息系统项目的风险控制提供了全新的理论依据和决策支持。     

It's Complicated: The 2014–2015 U.S. Measles Outbreak and Parents’ Vaccination Beliefs,Confidence, and Intentions

While it seems intuitive that highly visible vaccine‐preventable disease outbreaks should impact perceptions of disease risk and facilitate vaccination, few empirical studies exist to confirm or dispel these beliefs. This study investigates the impact of the 2014–2015 Disneyland measles outbreak on parents’ vaccination attitudes and future vaccination intentions. The analysis relies on a pair of public opinion surveys of American parents with at least one child under the age of six (N = 1,000 across each survey). Controlling for basic demographics, we found higher levels of reported confidence in the safety and efficacy of childhood vaccinations in our follow‐up data collection. However, this confidence was also accompanied by elevated levels of concern toward childhood vaccines among American parents. We then examined how different subgroups in the population scored on these measures before and after the outbreak. We found that parents with high levels of interest in the topic of vaccines and a child who is not fully upto date with the recommended vaccination schedule reported more supportive attitudes toward vaccines. However, future intentions to follow the recommended vaccination schedule were not positively impacted by the outbreak. Possible explanations for these results and implications for vaccination outreach are discussed.     

The Mutable Nature of Risk and Acceptability: A Hybrid Risk Governance Framework

This article focuses on the fluid nature of risk problems and the challenges it presents to establishing acceptability in risk governance. It introduces an actor‐network theory (ANT) perspective as a way to deal with the mutable nature of risk controversies and the configuration of stakeholders. To translate this into a practicable framework, the article proposes a hybrid risk governance framework that combines ANT with integrative risk governance, deliberative democracy, and responsive regulation. This addresses a number of the limitations in existing risk governance models, including: (1) the lack of more substantive public participation throughout the lifecycle of a project; (2) hijacking of deliberative forums by particular groups; and (3) the treatment of risk problems and their associated stakeholders as immutable entities. The framework constitutes a five‐stage process of co‐selection, co‐design, co‐planning, and co‐regulation to facilitate the co‐production of collective interests and knowledge, build capacities, and strengthen accountability in the process. The aims of this article are twofold: conceptually, it introduces a framework of risk governance that accounts for the mutable nature of risk problems and configuration of stakeholders. In practice, this article offers risk managers and practitioners of risk governance a set of procedures with which to operationalize this conceptual approach to risk and stakeholder engagement.