Components of change in the number of female family heads ages 15 to 44, an update and reanalysis: United States, 1940 to 1983

We review the literature dealing with the various components of change in the number of female family heads and conclude that P. Cutright's (1974, Journal of Marriage and the Family 36, 714–721) four components of change in the number of ever-married female family heads can be usefully applied to a reanalysis of decade-by-decade changes in this quantity among white and nonwhite women ages 15–44, from 1940 through 1980. However, we substantially revise and update Cutright's (1974) original data. Our findings include the fact that while the relative importance of the various components of increases in ever-married female family headship vary from decade to decade, overall trends are fairly similar for white and nonwhite women. Moreover, the rapid rise between 1970 and 1980 in the number of white and nonwhite female family heads among the never-married (single) continued through the 1980 to 1983 period. A decade ago, Cutright (1974) predicted that a change in the number of female family heads from 1970 on would reflect little more than changes in the numbers of ever- and never-married women ages 15–44. We discuss this inaccurate prediction and conclude that wishful thinking is a poor guide in forecasting the future.     

Wage change in the late career: A model for the outcomes of job sequences

This paper elaborates a model for the outcomes of job sequences and illustrates its utility by an empirical analysis of the determinants of wage change for men in their late careers. We argue that job sequences represent the basic components of careers and that a focus on these sequences is useful for explaining the determinants of socioeconomic inequality over the life cycle. Our model permits us to estimate the effects on wage change of a wide array of personal resources and measures of the opportunity structure. We further assess how these types of factors differentially affect wage change for various patterns of labor market behavior and for blacks vs whites. Our empirical analysis of data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Middle-Aged Men suggests the importance of patterns of job sequences for wage change and for the explanation of racial differentials in career advancement.     

Economic and other determinants of annual change in U.S. fertility: 1917-1976

Decomposition of fertility into its age, period, and cohort components demonstrates the empirical importance of age and period. Of the two, less is known about the period dimension. A new measure of fertility, specific to race and birth order, is used to estimate the effects of annual change in unemployment, the marriage and unemployment rate, as well as annual change in contraceptive sterilization and change in the proportion of couples adopting the more effective (pill and IUD) methods introduced in the early 1960s, are all important determinants of fertility change, but their impact varies greatly by birth order.     

A dynamic macro social indicator model of changes in marriage, family, and population in the United States: 1947–1974

This paper presents an integrated 21-equation model of how marriage, family, and population conditions, as indexed by macro social indicators, affect each other and are affected by other social, demographic, and economic forces. An opportunity structures theoretical paradigm is applied to the specification of dynamic structural equations for determining changes (both trends and cyclical fluctuations) in marriage formation and dissolution, family and household composition, fertility, mortality, population growth, and population distribution. The equations are estimated on annual national data for the United States during the post-World War II years 1947 to 1972, and then they are used to make conditional forecasts of the values of some of the endogenous variables for 1973 and 1974. It is found that the equations fit the observed data well, lack demonstrable autocorrelation of disturbances, and forecast the 1973 and 1974 values usually with less than 2% error. Strategies are sketched for further refining some of the equations, and it is suggested that this model should be integrated into a larger societal model in order to estimate some of the effects of changes in demographic phenomena on other social conditions.     

Internal labor markets, promotions, and worker skill: An indirect test of skill ILMs

The determinants of intrafirm mobility within the internal labor markets (ILMs) of one large, regional bank and one small town bank are examined. The literature on the banking industry suggests that internal labor markets exist there, and that job changes within these markets are based on the development of skill rather than on seniority. It is suggested that in skill ILMs, promotions will be a positive function of the employees' duration in the present job; while in a seniority-based ILM, promotions will be a positive function of tenure with the firm prior to the present job. These findings, for men but not women, support the hypothesis that skill rather than seniority-based ILMs are present in each bank. The findings for women suggest that they work in “firm” or secondary labor markets. While the two banks are similar in the way other factors determine mobility, differences are also found which may be explained by the size and sectoral location of each bank.     

Theory Trimming

This paper attempts to show that the “Theory Trimming” technique makes little contribution to theory in sociology. A brief history of the technique is given, and several key assertions of its proponents are abstracted. These assertions are shown to be highly questionable. The general alternative to Theory Trimming is shown, and the relationship between Theory Trimming and more general orientations to research is discussed.     

Determinants of the timing of adult role entry

A growing body of research indicates that the timing of entry into adult roles has long-term consequences for individuals and society. At present, little is known about determinants of the timing of adult role entry. Based on data from a 15-year follow-up study of high school students originally surveyed in 1957–1958 and resurveyed in 1973–1974, this paper examines and compares the processes by which the ages at entry into the labor force, entry into marriage, and entry into parenthood are determined. The timing of adult role entry is hypothesized to be a function of (1) the duration of time spent in transitional roles, (2) the availability of the opportunity to enter an adult role, and (3) an individual's orientation to an adult role. Evidence supporting this conceptualization is presented for both sexes.     

Strategies of interaction

Our general theoretical orientation proposes that individuals in a task-oriented group setting have a variety of strategies or rules by which they decide how to organize their exchange behavior. Status consistency, reciprocity, and sex roles are examined as possible bases for interpersonal strategies. Hypotheses derived from this examination are tested in a two-person game experiment, in which independent variables are payoff matrix (mixed motive vs. cooperative), information transfer (one-way vs. two-way), and social context (married couples, mixed sex strangers, and same sex strangers). The dependent variables are number of cooperative choices and reciprocity, the latter being measured by the correlation between number of cooperative choices by one subject in a five-trial block and the number of cooperative choices by his/her partner in the previous five-trial block.     

Constructing simple theories from propositional inventories

For better or worse, vast amounts of the research in the social sciences is done by researchers working independently of each other. Moreover, until quite recently, most of the data gathered has been of the correlational variety, relating two variables at a time. Consequently, those who try to make theoretical sense out of the vast amount of data often give up this task as hopeless.One way of alleviating this situation is through a propositional inventory: by bringing into one volume a large number of propositions that cover similar grounds. The late 1950s and the 1960s saw an upsurge in such inventories and this trend has continued into the 1970s.¹ Yet even these inventories do not condense and organize the data sufficiently to permit one to develop theories from them. In this paper we shall describe and illustrate a procedure which permits one to construct simple theories from propositional inventories.     

Population growth and the birth squeeze

Birth squeezes result from an imbalance in the number of males and females in the childbearing ages, and can have a significant impact on the level and distribution of births. To measure the effects of a birth squeeze, the observed male and female age-specific birth rates were distinguished from the underlying fertility magnitudes, which reflect the mutual propensity of males and females of specified ages to have a child. The fertility magnitudes, readily expressible in terms of the birth rates, are nonetheless independent of the age-sex composition of the population, while the birth rates are affected by compositional changes. The two-sex Total Fertility Rate, TFR2, the average of the male and female TFRs, is advanced as a summary measure of fertility independent of the birth squeeze, and a simple index, U, is defined to measure the severity of the squeeze. Analyses involving stable population models, alternative population projections, and the birth squeezes found in contemporary populations documented the importance of the birth squeeze for studies of fertility. In particular, the size of the distortions introduced by the birth squeeze was seen as related to the level of fertility itself. In high-fertility populations, the birth squeeze depresses observed female age-specific birth rates, and thus conventional measures can significantly underestimate the fertility reduction needed to end population growth.     

Racial discrimination and the social organization of industries

This study investigates the relationship between several factors of the social organization of labor markets and racial discrimination during the late 1960s. Log-linear models are used to obtain indicators of the relative opportunities of black and white men to obtain different occupations across each of 38 industrial segments. We then examine the nature of the relationship between these indicators of discrimination and a number of aspects of industries suggested to be important by various theories of discrimination. The results indicate that relative black opportunities were favorably influenced by government employment, industrial and white collar (but not craft) unionization, and product market power, and they were adversely influenced by profitability and customer preferences for nonretail sales workers. Of particular interest is the finding that, contrary to the hypothesis derived from neoclassical economics, market power had a positive effect on black opportunities.     

Body time and social time: Mood patterns by menstrual cycle phase and day of the week

Multiple regression analysis traces the effects of two time dimensions (body time as indexed by the female menstrual cycle, and social time as indexed by the calendar week) upon moods, in a prospective study of daily moods over a 40-day period. Positive moods peaked in the ovulatory phase and on weekends, while negative moods peaked in the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle. An individual difference analysis showed that women whose moods are responsive to the menstrual cycle are physically active, socially assertive, sexually orgasmic women for whom the maternal role is important.     

Interorganizational resource networks: Formal patterns of overlap

In this paper, we analyze an interorganizational resource network involving three resources—information, money, and support-and a broad range of 73 organizations in a medium size American community. Mutuality is strongest for information flows, and weakest for money flows. “Multiplex” patternings—flows of two media in the same direction—are found for all three pairs of resources, while “exchange” effects—flows of two media in opposite directions—involving information and money, and information and support, but not money and support, are also indicated. Moreover, the tendencies toward symmetry in the information and support networks are accentuated in the presence of one another. The analysis suggests that information flows play a crucial role in conditioning the flows of the other resources, and that they may be a precondition to the establishment of more elaborate interorganizational networks.     

Some considerations concerning the functional form of earnings

The problem of choosing the correct functional form of earnings has plagued studies of social inequality and labor market segmentation. Although this choice has often been made on superficial grounds, the results presented in the current paper demonstrate that this choice has very significant implications for the empirical findings that emerge from the study of earnings determination. Four functional forms of earnings are compared: dollar earnings, earnings rank based on social perceptions as calibrated by P. Coleman and L. Rainwater (1978, Social Standing in America, Basic Books, New York) the natural logarithm of earnings, and the best-fitting power function transformation of earnings as estimated by the Box-Cox technique. Evaluation of a generalized earnings determination model on a sample of private sector employees produces very similar results across these four functional forms of earnings. More divergent results are obtained when the models are compared across subsamples based on class, economic sector, and gender. Significant contrasts between earnings coefficients across groups are much more likely when utilizing log earnings or the Box-Cox power transformation than when using either dollar earnings or perceived earnings. In addition, the contrasts observed for log earnings and Box-Cox earnings are frequently in the opposite direction of those observed for dollar earnings or perceived earnings. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for theoretical developments in the study of social inequality and labor market segmentation.     

Job-shift differences between men and women in the workplace

Until now causal analyses of male-female career differences have been based on the standard attainment model and have focused on differences in career outcomes, namely status and earnings. This paper departs from this practice by using the career life-cycle model of achievement as a framework for the analysis of sex differences in the job mobility experiences of management personnel of a large corporation. The paper focuses not on sexual differences in the level of career rewards, but on differences in the rate of job shifts as the career unfolds. The models are based on the mean-value function of a Poisson arrival process. The principal findings are: (1) Male and female job-shift regimes are similar in form and described by the mean-value function of a nonstationary and heterogeneous Poisson arrival process; (2) the parameters governing male and female job-shift regimes are significantly different; (3) parameter differences indicate sexual inequities with respect to the rate of return to productive resources, but not with respect to structural opportunities to shift; (4) for men and women alike, schooling increases the rate of job shift, while labor force experience prior to being hired and entry-level achievement decrease the rate of shift.     

Converting education into earnings: The patterns among Hispanic origin men

We evaluate the functional form of the relationship between education and earnings for Hispanic and non-Hispanic white men to determine whether the payoffs to education vary with level of schooling, and whether credential effects can be discerned. Results indicate that for all groups the usual linear specification, while offering the advantage of parsimony, fits the data less well than more complex models. The levels model best predicts the earnings of Puerto Rican and other Spanish origin workers, while the credential model is best suited for Mexican, Central/South American, and non-Hispanic white men. Credential effects accrue to all groups, except the other Spanish, but Central/South Americans only receive added income bonuses for the completion of a college degree, whereas Mexican, Puerto Rican, and non-Hispanic white men also receive a bonus for a high school diploma.     

Some models of response uncertainty for panel analysis

Data of L. M. Wiggins from three-wave panels, each with a single dichotomous response, illustrate the use of models with response probabilities that vary over occasions or over individuals, or neither, or both, with a “no interaction” combination of the two being specified for the last case, which can also be derived from the Rasch measurement model. Models more complicated than these, allowing for changes in individual parameters (interaction of occasions and persons) or serial dependence of responses are considered when the Rasch-type model does not adequately describe the data.