A re-evaluation of alternate methodologies in legislative voting analysis

This paper consists of a comparison of Guttman scale analysis and factor analysis as applied to legislative roll-call votes. After defining each technique, their respective shortcomings are discussed. Guttman scaling has intuitive appeal, but lacks the precision of measurement and ability to produce interval level legislator scales that factor analysis provides. Factor analysis is frequently criticized, however, because it cannot generate factors that resemble Guttman scales in composition. By reconsidering the basis for each technique, two points apparently overlooked by researchers are established. Firstly, although the techniques produce different results, both kinds are meaningful in their own right. Secondly, the techniques are not just different; they are interrelated in a definable manner. This interrelationship is developed by means of a principal components analysis of artificial roll-calls forming a perfect Guttman scale. The results are then used to establish probable interpretations of the principal components of a scalable set of roll-calls. The implication is that the precision of factor analysis need not be sacrificed even if the scaling criterion is preferred by the analyst.     

The definition and measurement of similarity among legislative roll-call votes

This paper attempts to further the investigation of the close relationship between the seemingly diverse statistical techniques of Guttman scaling and principal components (factor) analysis by showing that artificial data sets composed of various kinds and combinations of cumulative scales can be analyzed in a meaningful and related way by principal components analysis. The comparison is then moved to a more abstract level through the postulation of a definition of “similarity” or association between roll-calls which is used as a standard for evaluating the two techniques. The outcome is that principal components analysis is interpreted as a refinement over Guttman scaling in the assessment of roll-call similarity, although where this extra precision is not required, Guttman scaling remains an acceptable methodology. By raising the question of the relation of technique to data to this level, it is hoped that the bases for more theoretically oriented choices of technique have been established.     

Patterns of change in religious service attendance across the life course: Evidence from a 34-year longitudinal study

Although a number of studies have uncovered evidence of age differences in religious involvement across the life course, there has been a lack of long-term longitudinal data to test the extent to which these differences are due to changes within individuals over time. This study tracks trajectories of change in religious service attendance using data collected longitudinally over the course of up to 34 years, between 1971 and 2005, and in ages ranging from 15 to 102. Piecewise growth curve modeling was used to examine changes in the patterns of age-related change in three distinct developmental periods: the transition from adolescence to young adulthood, middle adulthood, and older adulthood. Attendance showed an average pattern of quadratic decline in adolescence, stability in middle adulthood, and a quadratic pattern of more rapid increase followed by decrease over the course of older adulthood. These results suggest that developmental factors play a role in changing patterns of religious participation across the adult life course, and may account for some of the apparent differences between age groups.     

Developing spatial inequalities in carbon appropriation: A sociological analysis of changing local emissions across the United States

This study examines an overlooked dynamic in sociological research on greenhouse gas emissions: how local areas appropriate the global carbon cycle for use and exchange purposes as they develop. Drawing on theories of place and space, we hypothesize that development differentially drives and spatially decouples use- and exchange-oriented emissions at the local level. To test our hypotheses, we integrate longitudinal, county-level data on residential and industrial emissions from the Vulcan Project with demographic, economic and environmental data from the U.S. Census Bureau and National Land Change Database. Results from spatial regression models with two-way fixed-effects indicate that alongside innovations and efficiencies capable of reducing environmentally harmful effects of development comes a spatial disarticulation between carbon-intensive production and consumption within as well as across societies. Implications for existing theory, methods and policy are discussed.     

The rescission of behaviors: Inconsistent responses in adolescent sexuality data

In longitudinal survey research, certain questions can be rescinded illogically. For instance, respondents who at Time 1 report having had sexual intercourse may at Time 2 report never having done so. This paper reports measurement techniques and analyses of these types of inconsistencies from an ongoing longitudinal adolescent sexuality project. Inconsistencies in intercourse, masturbation, and other sexual behaviors are reported and compared to rates from other studies and other less sensitive behaviors within the same study. Three conclusions are presented: (1) inconsistencies should be considered a natural part of any longitudinal survey process and should be incorporated into the response model; (2) inconsistency rates in these particular data support the contention that adolescent sexuality data of appropriate quality for analytical purposes can be obtained; and (3) inconsistency rates in fact contain substantive information concerning the processes under consideration.     

Ethnic intermarriage in longitudinal perspective: Testing structural and cultural explanations in the United States, 1880–2011

Focusing on macro-level processes, this article combines Decennial Census and Current Population Survey data to simultaneously test longitudinal and cross-sectional effects on ethnic intermarriage using structural and cultural explanations. Covering a 130 year period, the results of our multilevel analysis for 140 national-origin groups indicate that structural characteristics explain why some origin groups become more “open” over time while others remain relatively “closed”. Ethnic intermarriage is more likely to increase over time when the relative size of an immigrant group decreases, sex ratios grow more imbalanced, the origin group grows more diverse, the size of the third generation increases and social structural consolidation decreases. Cultural explanations also play a role suggesting that an origin group’s exogamous behavior in the past exerts long-term effects and exogamous practices increase over time when the prevalence of early marriage customs declines. For some of the discussed determinants of intermarriage, longitudinal and cross-sectional effects differ calling for a more careful theorizing and testing in terms of the level of analysis (e.g., longitudinal vs. cross-sectional).     

Racial differences in the effects of job contacts: Conflicting evidence from cross-sectional and longitudinal data

Recent research has argued that using job contacts to find work restricts the opportunities of Black workers. Although this makes sense in light of literature on urban poverty that contends that inner-city Blacks are isolated from effective job networks, this paper argues that there are two reasons why these findings may be misleading. First, the existence of discrimination in the labor market means that contacts may be an efficient method of job search for Black workers. Second, because the use of contacts may be an endogenous variable, we need to look at longitudinal data. In the analysis, I compare cross-sectional and longitudinal results on the relationship between contacts and wages. While the cross-sectional data indicate a negative relationship between contacts and wages, the longitudinal data suggest this merely reflects lower levels of opportunity among workers who use contacts rather than the effect of contacts per se.     

Modeling repeated measures of dichotomous data: Testing whether the within-person trajectory of change varies across levels of between-person factors

In this paper, we consider the following question for the analysis of data obtained in longitudinal panel designs: How should repeated-measures data be modeled and interpreted when the outcome or dependent variable is dichotomous and the objective is to determine whether the within-person rate of change over time varies across levels of one or more between-person factors? Standard approaches address this issue by means of generalized estimating equations or generalized linear mixed models with logistic links. Using an empirical example and simulated data, we show (1) that cross-level product terms from these models can produce misleading results with respect to whether the within-person rate of change varies across levels of a dichotomous between-person factor; and (2) that subgroup differences in the rate of change should be assessed on an additive scale (using group differences in the effects of predictors on the probability of disease) rather than on a multiplicative scale (using group differences in the effects of predictors on the odds of disease). Because usual approaches do not provide a significance test for whether the rate of additive change varies across levels of a between-person factor, sample differences in the rate of additive change may be due to sampling error. We illustrate how standard software can be used to estimate and test whether additive changes vary across levels of a between-person factor.     

Estimating chance reproducibility in Guttman Scaling

A definition of reproducibility in Guttman Scaling and two chance measures of reproducibility are suggested. The first measure assumes that the items are independent. The second method assumes nonindependent items and fits respondent and item margins by an iterative method used in fitting log-linear models. Chance reproducibility is conceptualized in terms of assumptions about respondent variability.     

Explaining discrepant findings in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses: An application to U.S. homicide rates

Cross-sectional studies often reach different conclusions regarding the association between key explanatory variables and outcomes than those of longitudinal approaches. This study considers possible explanations for discrepant findings using a decomposition approach with panel data on 404 U.S. counties for the period 1970–1999. The analysis establishes that there are important differences in the effects of independent variables on homicide rates across counties as opposed to within counties over time. Explanations offered for these discrepancies are that variables may have differing temporary (flow) and permanent (stock) influences on outcomes and possible omitted variable bias. The findings highlight the importance of distinguishing among possible stock and flow effects and are significant not only for the study of crime but also for other social phenomena.     

词块与英语专业学生写作质量的相关性研究

以湖北工业大学英语专业三年级学生的62篇习作为语料进行定量分析,试图探究英语专业学生的词块能力与其写作水平之间的相关性。分析结果显示：词块的正确使用与学生的写作质量显著相关,但每类词块与写作质量的相关系数不同。甸子构建者和短语搭配与学生写作质量高度相关;其次是多字短语;而约定俗成的表达法和限制性短语则与学生的写作质量未见明显相关性。     

American crime drops: Investigating the breaks,dips and drops in temporal homicide

ObjectivesWhile a great deal of attention has been given to the 1990s crime drop, less is known about the more recent decline in homicide rates that occurred in several large U.S. cities. This paper aims to explore whether these represent two distinct drops via statistical evidence of structural breaks in longitudinal homicide trends and explore potentially differing explanations for the two declines. Methods: Using homicide data on a large sample of U.S. cities from 1990 to 2011, we test for structural breaks in temporal homicide rates. Combining census data and a time series approach, we also examine the role structural features, demographic shifts, and crime control strategies played in the changes in homicide rates over time. Results: Statistical evidence demonstrates two structural breaks in homicide trends, with one trend reflecting the 1990s crime drop (1994–2002) and another trend capturing a second decline (2007–2011). Time series analysis confirms previous research findings about the contributions of structural conditions (e.g., disadvantage) and crime control strategies (e.g., police force size) to the crime drop of the 1990s, but these factors cannot account for the more recent drop with the exception of police presence. Conclusions: Although both structural conditions and crime control strategies are critical to the longitudinal trends in homicide rates over the entire span from 1990 to 2011, different factors account for these two distinct temporal trends.     

Re-examining the relationship between Latino immigration and racial/ethnic violence

Whether immigration increases crime has long been a source of political debate and scholarly interest. Despite widespread public opinion to the contrary, the weight of evidence suggests the most recent wave of U.S. immigration has not increased crime, and may have actually helped reduce criminal violence. However, with recent shifts in immigrant settlement patterns away from traditional receiving destinations, a series of contemporary studies suggests a more complicated immigration-crime relationship, whereby Latino immigration is said to increase violence in newer immigrant destinations (but not in established destinations) and has varied effects for different racial/ethnic groups. With few exceptions, these more recent studies rely on cross-sectional analyses, thus limiting their ability to examine the longitudinal nexus between Latino immigration and violent crime. This study brings to bear the first longitudinal data set to test the relationship between immigration and racial/ethnic homicide in U.S. metropolitan areas between 1990 and 2010. Results from bivariate longitudinal associations and multivariate fixed effects models are contrary to recent findings – Latino immigration is generally associated with decreases in homicide victimization for whites, blacks, and Hispanics in both established and non-established immigrant destinations, though these associations are not significant in all cases.     

Measuring self-reported deviance: Cross-sectional or panel data?

The use of longitudinal designs in research on deviant behavior has recently been questioned on theoretical, methodological, and even economic grounds. One dimension of this questioning has been based on the ability of cross-sectional research to adequately address the issue of causality as demonstrated by the comparability of findings for both cross-sectional and longitudinal studies. This research also addresses the comparability of cross-sectional data with longitudinal data by testing modern perceptual deterrence theory hypotheses utilizing a three-wave panel study of self-reported driving while under the influence of alcohol among adults. Findings suggest that cross-sectional measures of drunken driving behavior are strongly correlated with longitudinal measures. However, comparisons of models based on modern deterrence theory produce inconclusive results concerning the ability of cross-sectional measures to approximate longitudinal measures of self-reported deviance.     

Knowledge and beliefs about national development and developmental hierarchies: The viewpoints of ordinary people in thirteen countries

Scholars and policy makers have for centuries constructed and used developmental hierarchies to characterize different countries. The hypotheses motivating this paper are that such social constructions have been circulated internationally, are constructed similarly in various countries, and follow the social constructions of elite international organizations, such as the United Nations. This paper uses data from 15 surveys in 13 diverse countries to study how developmental hierarchies are understood in everyday life. Our research shows that most people have constructions of developmental hierarchies that are similar across countries and are similar to the developmental hierarchies constructed by the United Nations. These findings suggest that developmental hierarchies are widely understood around the world and are widely available to ordinary people as they make decisions about many aspects of life.     

Examining macroeconomic determinants of trust in parliament: A dynamic multilevel framework

The extensive literature on political trust has long suggested a link between macroeconomic conditions and public trust in political institutions. However, empirical evidence regarding this relationship remains ambiguous. Conflicting results appear to be related to differences in research design: while cross-sectional studies tend not to find evidence of a link between macroeconomic variables and trust in political institutions, most longitudinal studies do. In this paper, using recent advances in multilevel methodology, we examine both cross-sectional and longitudinal effects of macroeconomic variables on trust in national parliament within a single dynamic multilevel framework. By analyzing all seven waves of the European Social Survey (2002–2014), we demonstrate that declining macroeconomic performance has a negative within-country effect on trust in national parliament. At the same time, we find limited evidence in support of this association at the between-country level. This discrepancy suggests the presence of confounding factors that are unaccounted for in cross-sectional designs. We therefore argue for the importance of examining within-country effects as they provide a more stringent test of causality.     

假设检验在建设工程实验室管理中的应用

为了评估同一实验在不同操作过程中是否有本质的差别,以采集耐碱玻璃纤维网布经向和纬向的初始拉伸断裂强力实验为例,提出应用假设检验的方法进行量化分析。采用正态P-P图、Kolmogorov-Smirnov单样本检验法、两个独立样本Mann-Whitney检验法、游程检验法进行对比实验。研究结果表明,可以用假设检验的方法来量化分析实验过程是否有本质的差别;通过多角度对实验数据的量化分析,可以评定实验操作过程对实验结果影响有无显著性差异,评定实验数据采集过程是否出现异常。     

阿拉伯世界新闻事业的发展逻辑

在国际或世界新闻史的研究中,选取的对象往往因语言或文献原因而集中于西方发达国家（尤其是欧美）,其实这样的做法是不全面的.当我们在做新闻史研究时,不一定完全依照西方国家的发展模式,阿拉伯世界的新闻传播发展逻辑还应该遵循自身情况来定位,单纯地追寻西方和固守传统模式显然都缺乏充足的理由.单纯用西方模式来理解其他地区的新闻事业,存在着“西方中心主义”风险.     

我国商业银行竞争力的评估

随着我国利率市场化改革的进一步推进,我国商业银行竞争力越来越受到关注。文章研究如何科学评价银行竞争力问题,利用2014年十三家在沪市上市的银行年报,根据骆驼评级法,选取适当的数据,通过对这些数据进行主成份分析,较为科学的得出这十三家上市银行的竞争力水平。     

大数据产业相关市场界定的困境与出路

相关市场的界定是反垄断执法的首要前提,也是反垄断法司法适用的重要基础性工作。传统的相关市场分析方法主要是定量的SSNIP分析和定性的产品替代分析,它们主要基于传统的实体行业而设计。在大数据产业中,由于大数据产品、服务具有双边市场、“免费”模式、用户锁定效应和网络外部性等特征,用传统方法界定相关市场存在诸多弊端,应该结合大数据产品和服务的特征,改进传统SSNIP分析法路径,并综合借鉴SSNIC分析法、盈利模式测试法和产品性能测试法等,方能对大数据产业相关市场作出准确、科学、合理界定。