Economic and demographic effects on working women in Latin America

The paper uses historical census data and the latest household surveys to investigate the evolution of female employment in Latin America, the effect of demographic factors on female labor force participation, and the reasons for the observed male-female gap in labor earnings. The findings show that, though women's labor force participation in Latin America has indeed increased despite the adverse economic conditions of the last two decades, marriage and fertility still exercise a large negative effect on women's labor supply. On average in the 15 countries studied, marriage reduces the probability that a woman would work by half, and each child by a further 3–5% These effects result in age-participation profiles that decrease with age although the econometric analysis suggests that, as women get older, they have a ceteris paribus greater probability to seek employment. In all the countries studied women are rewarded less than men and gender differences in human capital characteristics cannot account for the observed earnings differential. The paper discusses the significance of the findings for potential policies to assist women, especially in the areas of education and fertility, and also suggests the direction of further reserarch.The views expressed here are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank and its affiliated organisations.     

Total fertility rate,women's education,and women's work: What are the relationships?

This paper presents the results of a statistical study, using cross-national data, on the relationships between total fertility rate and women's level of education and women's labor participation. Aggregate data on seventy-one countries were collected from numerous sources. Eight variables related to women's fertility, mortality, economic status, labor participation, and education are analyzed using multivariate linear regression analyses. Two models are considered. The first model regresses five variables on total fertility rate: per capita Cross National Product (GNP), percentage of women ages 15 to 19 who are married, female life expectancy at birth, calories available as a percentage of need, and percentage of married couples using contraception. The second model includes two additional regressors: the average number of years of schooling for women, and the percentage of women in the labor force. These seven variables are regressed on total fertility rate. Although the data are crude, the results of the analyses suggest that the model which incorporates women's level of education and women's labor participation captures the data better than the smaller model. The full model suggests that the percentage of women in the labor force is directly related to total fertility rate, whereas the average number of years of education for women is indirectly related to total fertility rate.     

Women are key players in the economies of East and Southeast Asia

In 1996, the East-West Center's Program on Population investigated the links between population change and economic growth in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia. This document discusses the findings pertaining to women's changing marriage and childbearing patterns, education attainment, and labor force participation as well as changes in family life. In eastern and southeastern Asia, women are delaying marriage and having fewer children as a result of their overwhelming acceptance of modern contraception. Concurrently, women's secondary school enrollment has increased dramatically since 1960, and women have accounted for steadily increasing proportions of total labor force growth. Economic development has led to fewer women employed in agriculture and more in clerical positions. Women continue to be marginalized in low-paying manufacturing jobs and to lose these jobs more frequently than do men. Women's labor force participation continues to be dependent upon their child care responsibilities, but women are beginning to combine both activities with the help of live-in grandparents. Women have made an important contribution to economic growth in Asia. Policies should address job discrimination against married women, wage discrimination, the problems faced by young women who leave home for employment in the manufacturing and service sectors, and the lack of child care facilities.     

非洲的人口动态与分布

非洲的人口动态长期以来具有高出生率、高死亡率的特点,20世纪90年代以后,非洲的人口动态由高出生高死亡模式向高出生中死亡模式转变．死亡率的持续下降在很大程度上是由于数种过去危害最严重的急性传染病基本上得到有效控制的结果。正是死亡率的下降和持续的高出生率导致非洲人口迅速增长。在非洲人口增长的过程中．人口分布是极不平衡的。非洲人口分布的变化与经济因素的人口定期迁移是密切相关的,大致可分为三种情况．这种独特的迁移模式均与经济活动和生产方式直接相关。     

Why do some women participate in the labor force while others stay at home?

This study analyzed data from the 1970 Korean Census to uncover the determinants of women's labor force participation (LFP) in Korea, in 1970, when industrialization was beginning and the traditional sex-roles of Confucianism prevailed. The population surveyed included urban women aged 14-65 (19,277 married, 4373 single and living with parents, and 3222 single living independently). The study began by reviewing supply side explanations for LFP by women that predict women with high earning potential are likely to participate in the labor force, and noting that this economic explanation fails to consider the effects of cultural mechanisms that emphasize female domesticity. The study then comments on the labor market structure in Korea, in 1970, that led to limited employment opportunities for women, the domestic ideology that was prevalent during the early industrial stage, and the impact of this domestic ideology on Korean women. The logistic regressions used in the analytical methodology are then described, and it is hypothesized that women will be less likely to seek employment if they have adequate family resources, they are married and have children, and they are part of an extended family. It is further hypothesized that women's education will have no significant impact on employment and that university education is important as a marriage asset. The study results support this hypothesis in regard to single women living with parents, but reveal a slight effect of education on LFP among married women.     

Nuptiality and population growth

Abstract In the European historical experience, nuptiality patterns played a very significant role in the development of low fertility. Late marriage and widespread celibacy provided one of the mechanisms by which age-specific fertility rates were brought to low levels in the populations of Western Europe. In Eastern and Central Europe on the other hand, where marriage customarily occurred earlier and was more nearly universal, a somewhat slower fertility transition was achieved through a reduction in marital fertility - without any drastic accompanying nuptiality change. Populations of developing countries, however, commonly exhibit nuptiality patterns characterized by a still higher incidence and a considerably younger age-pattern of marriage than even the earliest observed schedule from Eastern Europe. With few exceptions, little work has been done to date to examine the implications of these very early and universal marriage schedules for fertility in general and for the growth of these populations in particular.(1) We have therefore tried to analyse the impact of nuptiality on the fertility and growth of a series of populations from developing nations where extra-marital fertility is negligible. Populations in which the prevalence of cohabitation by age is not well documented by existing marital-status data (mainly those in Latin America and tropical Africa) are excluded from this analysis; an attempt will be made in later work, however, to extend the analysis to these populations.     

Nuptiality and population growth

In the European historical experience, nuptiality patterns played a very significant role in the development of low fertility. Late marriage and widespread celibacy provided one of the mechanisms by which age-specific fertility rates were brought to low levels in the populations of Western Europe. In Eastern and Central Europe on the other hand, where marriage customarily occurred earlier and was more nearly universal, a somewhat slower fertility transition was achieved through a reduction in marital fertility — without any drastic accompanying nuptiality change. Populations of developing countries, however, commonly exhibit nuptiality patterns characterized by a still higher incidence and a considerably younger age-pattern of marriage than even the earliest observed schedule from Eastern Europe. With few exceptions, little work has been done to date to examine the implications of these very early and universal marriage schedules for fertility in general and for the growth of these populations in particular.¹ We have therefore tried to analyse the impact of nuptiality on the fertility and growth of a series of populations from developing nations where extra-marital fertility is negligible. Populations in which the prevalence of cohabitation by age is not well documented by existing marital-status data (mainly those in Latin America and tropical Africa) are excluded from this analysis; an attempt will be made in later work, however, to extend the analysis to these populations.     

The determinants and patterns of married women's labor force participation in Korea

The present study investigates the determinants and patterns of married women's labor force participation in Korea. Married women's employment in Korea is largely determined by age, urban residence, household characteristics of the husband's socioeconomic status, family income, fertility, and the lagged effect of work. Older age, rural residence, inferior household economic condition, and recent work experience are the major positive causes of married women's participation in the market work. On the other hand, younger women with preschool children, who currently reside in urban areas, enjoying better household economic conditions (due to higher socioeconomic status of husbands and/or higher family income) are the groups of women with the smallest probability of working in the market. Married women's employment pattern in Korea shows a pattern typical of less-developed and low-income countries in two aspects: married women working and characterized by a low level of education; the difference between urban and rural areas in terms of work participation pattern is remarkable. Although Korea belongs to the advanced group of currently industrializing countries, she lags behind with other developing countries in terms of married women's employment. Moreover, it is difficult to predict in advance that Korea would have similar experiences as those of contemporary advanced countries.     

Birth limitation, late marriage and decline in the natural increase rate of the population]

Birth limitation and late marriage are two major factors which contribute to the reduction of population growth rate. These two factors should be used as the fundamental method for effectively controlling China's population growth. Facts have proved that birth limitation and late marriage are complimentary to each other and should match each other closely. Since late marriage cannot be delayed indefinitely, the average fertility rate for females under the age of 25 in their first marriage may still reach 5-6 children, provided that birth control measures are not taken. Because of this situation, at the same time that late marriage is encouraged, birth control should also be promoted positively. All married couples should be advised to have only one child. In order to ensure the everlasting practice of these two methods, certain policies concerning family planning and birth control should be formulated according to China's current economic situation. These policies include enforcement of an ideological education and social insurance practice in order to solve the problem of the high population growth rate in the countryside and effectively reach the goal of controlling China's population growth.     

Female working roles and fertility

Using survey data gathered in Turkey in 1963, the relationship between female employment status and fertility is examined. Controlling for urban-rural residence, education, and exposure to conception within marriage, no differences in fertility by labor force status appear. Although there is a slightly greater tendency for employed than for non-employed women to hold attitudes more favorable to small families and family size limitation, the observed differences are slight and not significant statistically. A typology is constructed wherein the nature and causal direction of any existing relationship between female employment and fertility are predicted, based on the availability of birth control technology and the presence or absence of conflict between the roles of mother and worker.     

Does low fertility call for new policies in some Asian countries?

Over the past 2 decades, Japan, China, Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea have completed a demographic transition from high birth and death rates and runaway population growth to reduced fertility and mortality and population growth approaching replacement levels. Among the outcomes of fertility decline, 3 have particularly far reaching effects: 1) Changes in family types and structures. Marriage and family formation are postponed, childbearing is compressed into a narrow reproductive span that begins later and ends earlier, and higher-order births become rare. Large families are replaced by small ones, and joint and extended families tend to be replaced by nuclear families. 2) Shifts in the proportions of young and old. Declining fertility means that the population as a whole becomes older. Decreases in the proportion of children provides an opportunity to increase the coverage of education. Increases in the proportion of the elderly means higher medical costs and social and economic problems about care of the aged. 3) Changes in the work force. There is concern that low fertility and shortages of workers will cause investment labor-intensive industries to shift to countries with labor surpluses. Another outcome may be an increase in female participation in the work force. The potential consequences of rapid fertility decline have sparked debate among population experts and policy makers throughout Asia. Current family planning programs will emphasize: 1) offering a choice of methods to fit individual preferences; 2) strengthening programs for sexually active unmarried people; 3) encouraging child spacing and reproductive choice rather than simply limiting the number of births; 4) making information available on the side effects of various family planning methods; 5) providing special information and services to introduce new methods; and 6) promoting the maternal and child health benefits of breast feeding and birth spacing.     

China's demographic dilemmas

The year 2000 marks the end of a tumultuous century in China's population history, which weathered the demographic effects of devastating famines, wars, and epidemics and population growth and change. This paper examines the effect of population policies on the demographic dilemmas of China. In the 1950s, China had seen the fastest demographic transition in history, with a dramatic decline in mortality rates, followed by a decrease in fertility rates. However, in the 1970s, revisions in population control measures, changes in age structure, and fluctuations in age at marriage resulted in lower fertility rates. The struggles encountered by China in regulating fertility are described; these include the different methods of birth control, gender preference, marriage, population aging, and minority populations. Population and development issues within the context of urbanization, employment, education, health care, economy, and environment are also discussed. Future implications of these findings indicate the need for a systematic, effective, and complete environmental clean-up, as well as fertility and population policies.     

How female education affects reproductive behavior in urban Pakistan

Although Pakistan remains in a pretransitional stage (contraceptive prevalence of only 11.9% among married women in 1992), urban women with post-primary levels of education are spearheading the gradual move toward fertility transition. Data collected in the city of Karachi in 1987 were used to determine whether the inverse association between fertility and female education is attributable to child supply variables, demand factors, or fertility regulation costs. Karachi, with its high concentration of women with secondary educations employed in professional occupations, has a contraceptive prevalence rate of 31%. Among women married for less than 20 years, a 10-year increment in education predicts that a woman will average two-fifths of a child less than other women in the previous 5 years. Regression analysis identified 4 significant intervening variables in the education-fertility relationship: marriage duration, net family income, formal sector employment, and age at first marriage. Education appears to affect fertility because it promotes a later age at marriage and thus reduces life-time exposure to the risk of childbearing, induces women to marry men with higher incomes (a phenomenon that either reduces the cost of fertility regulation or the demand for children), leads women to become employed in the formal sector (leading to a reduction in the demand for children), and has other unspecified effects on women's values or opportunities that are captured by their birth cohort. When these intervening variables are held constant, women's attitude toward family planning loses its impact on fertility, as do women's domestic autonomy and their expectations of self-support in old age. These findings lend support to increased investments in female education in urban Pakistan as a means of limiting the childbearing of married women. Although it is not clear if investment in female education would have the same effect in rural Pakistan, such action is important from a human and economic development perspective.     

Marriage patterns and fertility of the world population]

Marriage patterns of the world population may be divided into two major categories; i.e., the traditional marriage pattern, and the European marriage pattern. Characteristics of the traditional marriage pattern are: early marriage, a high percentage of married people, and a low percentage of people who remain single during their lifetime. Characteristics of the European marriage pattern include: late marriage and a higher percentage of females who do not marry in their lifetime. In most parts of Asia and Africa and some Latin American countries, the traditional marriage pattern is dominant, and the birth rate in these countries has remained very high. Most countries in Europe show the characteristics of the European marriage pattern, and the fertility rate in these countries is comparatively low. Some other countries, such as Sri Lanka, are in a process of transformation in their marriage pattern, and their fertility level also shows a transition from a high fertility rate to a lower fertility rate. There is a close relationship between marriage patterns and the level of fertility.     

Korean patterns of women's labor force participation during the period, 1960-1980

"This article investigates how the patterns of Korean women's labor force participation have changed during the 1960s and the 1970s, [periods] of rapid economic development and social changes. The discussion focuses on the comparison of three sets of cross-sectional data derived from the 1960, 1970 and 1980 [Republic of Korea] censuses. Although not dramatic, the gross rates of women's labor force participation show an upward trend. A very high and rapidly increasing rate of rural women's labor force participation did not result in a big increase in the total rate because of the significant rise in the proportion of the population living in urban areas. However, the employment structure and patterns of women's labor force participation have changed significantly, especially in urban areas."     

From low to high fertility in Sulawesi (Indonesia) during the colonial period: explaining the 'first fertility transition'

This paper examines the past transition from low to high fertility which, in Indonesia as elsewhere, preceded the return to lower birth rates. Data from two parts of the island of Sulawesi where fertility rose during the colonial period are used to explain both why it rose, and why it was originally low. Economic conditions, it is argued, were the most important factors, affecting fertility via the supply of income and the demand for labour. Two schematic models of the 'first fertility transition' are proposed. In areas with low population densities and area-extensive forms of agriculture responsive to commercial stimuli, birth rates rose as the growth of commerce raised levels of prosperity, facilitated marriage, and undermined institutions such as debt-slavery which had previously acted to restrict marital fertility. In densely populated areas with labour-intensive agriculture and heavy state taxation in labour, fertility rose in response to demands for women's (and possibly child) labour that did not necessarily lead to gains in income.     

生育率演变的生态学逻辑及人口增长的长期趋势

人口增长的长期过程一直是充满困惑与引发争论的话题,将人类复归到生态系统的普通成员,按照生态学逻辑构建一个由替代生育率内生引导、人口容量外生制约的人口增长新模型,以代替用具体社会经济因子解释短周期人口变动的传统思路,探讨生育率转变的一般模式及人口发展的长期趋势。工业革命以来,全球人口已经或正在经历着第一次、第二次生育率转变,全球生育率演变可以聚类为欧美、亚非拉、撒哈拉以南非洲和东亚四种区域模式;在计划生育政策的推动下,我国在短短的三十年内完整经历了两次生育率转变。极限替代生育率是生育率演变的长期目标,但当前已有一些国家跌破更替水平,这也许会成为各个国家的普遍经历,预示着人口容量约束的日益显性化;世界及主要国家的人口规模正在日益逼近其容量极限,并会在惯性驱动下突破容量限制,达到峰值后再以负增长方式趋近人口容量,同期的生育率也将向极限替代生育率递增复归。按趋势模拟世界和中国的可持续人口容量分别约为65亿人和12亿人。研究设计出测量人口增长惯性的新指标——人口增长惯性系数,它是生育率与实时替代生育率之比或出生率与死亡率之比,相比常用的人口惯性因子更为简便易行。     

Presentation and establishment of a system of total progressive fertility rates and relevant models

Demographic studies necessarily rely on adequate and accurate statistical data. To take into consideration China's present situation of population control and planned birth practice, a system of total progressive fertility rate (TPFR) different from the parity progression ratio is established and its relevant model presented in order to make indicators used in analysing women's 1st marriage and fertility level reflect as closely as possible the actual situation. Here, TFR and TPFR, both used in analyzing fertility level, are compared so as to show that TPFR is a methodology more appropriate for use in the analysis of China's fertility. The model is based on the fact that women's vital events happen progressively from being born to completing childbearing. In composing the model, both women's age structure and parity structure are considered and the regularity of their changes with different years is defined. In China, the population development program has been brought into the overall social and economic development plan. Thus it is necessary to practice planned birth in order to make the population develop in a way which is in keeping with the social and economic development. Compared with other models or theories, it is more realistic to use the model discussed above in studies on China's population policy.     

Education,employment, and fertility in Kinshasa and prospects for changes in reproductive behavior

This paper examines fertility behavior of women in Kinshasa, Zaire's capital city with a population of roughly four million. We look at relationships linking women's education, employment, and fertility behavior (children ever born, age at first marriage, contraception, abortion, breastfeeding, and postpartum abstinence), using data from a 1990 survey of reproductive-age women. Other things equal, there are significant differences by educational attainment and by modern sector employment in lifetime fertility and in most of the proximate determinants as well. The results suggest that modern contraception and abortion are alternative fertility control strategies in Kinshasa, with abortion appearing to play an important role in contributing to the observed fertility differentials by education and employment. The dramatic increases that have taken place in women's access to secondary and higher education are likely to reduce fertility in the future, while the effects of Zaire's current economic and political crisis are uncertain. Our findings are consistent with some of the arguments of Caldwell et al. (1992) on a new type of fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa. If Zaire seeks to lower fertility, policy efforts should be made to soften the impact of economic crisis on school enrollments and enhance opportunities for young women to remain in school, at least well into the secondary level. Policy should also seek to promote more effective marketing and delivery of modern family planning services, so as to induce women to substitute modern contraception for abortion as a means of controlling their fertility.