共查询到18条相似文献,搜索用时 31 毫秒
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在介绍两种生成二次趋势模型的基础上,指明两者具有某种内在的关系,并以隐性趋势模型为数据生成过程,使用显性趋势模型作为估计对象,进行参数估计和相应的假设检验。理论分析结果表明:显性趋势模型的参数、t检验统计量和联合F检验统计量的极限具有非标准的分布,且高度显著;以显性趋势模型为数据生成过程,使用隐性趋势模型作为估计对象,结果表明隐性趋势模型是带趋势项的单位根过程;采用LLR检验统计量对两类模型进行区分检验,使用仿真技术进行模拟,仿真结果支持上述理论分析结论和LLR统计量能够区分两种模型。 相似文献
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摘 要:ADF检验是实际中最常用的单位根检验之一。ADF检验式有三种:(1)不含漂移项和趋势项;(2)只含漂移项不含趋势项;(3)既含漂移项也含趋势项。选用的检验式是否合适将直接影响到ADF检验的功效。为解决ADF检验过程中检验式的选择问题,本文首先从理论上推导了检验式(3)中时间趋势项系数δ与yz-1系数γ的联合检验统计量F的渐近分布;然后,应用蒙特卡罗模拟的方法研究了上述统计量与检验式(2)中关于漂移项α与系数γ的联合检验统计量的分布特征,进而给出了两统计量分布百分位数关于样本容量的响应面函数,从而进一步完善了单位根检验理论与方法。 相似文献
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本文通过理论分析和蒙特卡洛仿真模拟,研究平稳性检验中选用的统计量与数据生成过程不一致时,非线性ESTAR、LSTAR与线性DF检验法能否得出正确的结论.研究表明,二阶LSTAR与ESTAR模型可用相同的检验方法,但前者的非线性特征更强.当数据生成过程为线性AR,或非线性ESTAR、二阶LSTAR模型时,使用DF或ESTAR检验法可得出大致正确的结论,但LSTAR检验法完全失败.数据生成过程的非线性特征越强,ESTAR较DF检验方法的功效增益越高;线性特征越强,DF的功效增益越高.当转移函数F(θ,c,zt)中θ较大导致一阶泰勒近似误差较大或c非0时,标准ESTAR与LSTAR非线性检验法失去应用条件.θ较大或c偏离0较远时,数据生成过程中线性成分增强,用线性DF检验可获得更好的检验结果. 相似文献
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本文采用似然比类检验统计量进行面板单位根检验(简称为LR检验)研究,在局部备择假设成立的条件下,推导了其在无确定项、仅含截距项以及存在线性时间趋势项三种模型下所对应的渐近分布与局部渐近势函数。Monte Carlo模拟结果显示,当面板数据中含确定项(截距项或时间趋势项)时,LR检验水平比LLC和IPS检验水平更接近于给定的显著性检验水平;此外,当面板数据中包含发散个体时,经水平修正后的LR检验势要远远高于经水平修正后的LLC与IPS检验势,其中,经水平修正后的LLC与IPS检验势接近于零。 相似文献
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本文引入局部趋势概念,研究数据生成和检验式都含有趋势单位根过程中伪t检验量的分布,结果表明该分布为标准正态分布与第四种DF分布的混合体,并揭示了向这两类分布转化的条件.为摆脱伪t检验量受到特定参数约束而不能用于实证分析的困境,本文提出了Bootstrap检验方法,并从理论上证明该方法可用于水平检验和功效研究,埃奇沃思展开进一步证实该方法能够降低水平扭曲.蒙特卡洛模拟结果显示,Bootstrap检验量具有最高检验正确率,检验功效在一定条件下也能与标准正态分布的检验结果相媲美,说明Bootstrap方法可以用于此类模型的单位根检验. 相似文献
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For animal carcinogenicity study with multiple dose groups, positive trend test and pairwise comparisons of treated groups with control are generally performed using the Cochran-Armitage, Peto test, or Poly-K test. These tests are asymptotically normal. The exact version of Cochran-Armitage and Peto tests are available based on the permutation test assuming fixed column and row totals. For Poly-K test column totals depend on the mortality pattern of the animals and can not be kept fixed over the permutations of the animals. In this work a modification of the permutation test is suggested that can be applied on exact Poly-K test. 相似文献
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In Fortiana and Grané (2003), we introduced the statistic Q n , based on Hoeffding's maximum correlation, as a general-purpose goodness-of-fit test of uniformity. It admits an expansion along a countable set of orthogonal axes, originating a sequence of statistics. Linear combinations of a given number p of terms in this sequence have easy-to-compute probability distributions, either the exact ones for a finite sample or their normal asymptotic approximations for a large sample. In this article we develop an algorithm for tailoring a statistic within this class of linear combinations to test uniformity with optimal power against a specific alternative or family of alternatives. 相似文献
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Wanling Huang 《Econometric Reviews》2014,33(7):751-771
We propose a new rank-based goodness-of-fit test for copulas. It uses the information matrix equality and so relates to the White (1982) specification test. The test avoids parametric specification of marginal distributions, it does not involve kernel weighting, bandwidth selection, or any other strategic choices, it is asymptotically pivotal with a standard distribution, and it is simple to compute compared to available alternatives. The finite-sample size of this type of tests is known to deviate from their nominal size based on asymptotic critical values, and bootstrapping critical values could be a preferred alternative. A power study shows that, in a bivariate setting, the test has reasonable properties compared to its competitors. We conclude with an application in which we apply the test to two stock indices. 相似文献
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J. Carpenter 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》1999,61(1):159-172
In this paper we explore the theoretical and practical implications of using bootstrap test inversion to construct confidence intervals. In the presence of nuisance parameters, we show that the coverage error of such intervals is O ( n −1/2 ) which may be reduced to O ( n −1 ) if a Studentized statistic is used. We present three simulation studies and compare the performance of test inversion methods with established methods on the problem of estimating a confidence interval for the dose–response parameter in models of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors data. 相似文献
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This paper discusses the power of Jonckheere's test under the ordered alternative hypothesis. It is shown that the power of the test is bounded significantly away from one under certain shift alternatives and sample sizes. 相似文献
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To estimate causal relationships, time series econometricians must be aware of spurious correlation, a problem first mentioned by Yule (1926). To deal with this problem, one can work either with differenced series or multivariate models: VAR (VEC or VECM) models. These models usually include at least one cointegration relation. Although the Bayesian literature on VAR/VEC is quite advanced, Bauwens et al. (1999) highlighted that “the topic of selecting the cointegrating rank has not yet given very useful and convincing results”. The present article applies the Full Bayesian Significance Test (FBST), especially designed to deal with sharp hypotheses, to cointegration rank selection tests in VECM time series models. It shows the FBST implementation using both simulated and available (in the literature) data sets. As illustration, standard non informative priors are used. 相似文献