Tests for the mean of a multivariate normal population

We study the problem of testing: H₀ : μ ∈ P against H₁ : μ ? P, based on a random sample of N observations from a p-dimensional normal distribution N_p(μ, Σ) with Σ > 0 and P a closed convex positively homogeneous set. We develop the likelihood-ratio test (LRT) for this problem. We show that the union-intersection principle leads to a test equivalent to the LRT. It also gives a large class of tests which are shown to be admissible by Stein's theorem (1956). Finally, we give the α-level cutoff points for the LRT.     

An exact decomposition for a class of exponential dispersion models: Application to sequential testing

We define the Wishart distribution on the cone of positive definite matrices and an exponential distribution on the Lorentz cone as exponential dispersion models. We show that these two distributions possess a property of exact decomposition, and we use this property to solve the following problem: given q samples (y_il,… y_iNj), i = l,…,q, from a N(μ_i,Σ_i,) distribution, test H:Σ₁ = Σ₂ = … = σ_q. Using the exact decomposition property, the classical test statistic for H, involving q parameters p_i = (N_i, - l)/2, i = 1,…,q, is replaced by a sequence of q - l test statistics for the sequence of tests H_i,:σ₁ =σ₂ = … =σ_i given that H_i-1 is true, i = 2,…,q. Each one of these test statistics involves two parameters only, p._i-1 = p₁ + … + p_i-1 and p_i. We also use the exact decomposition property to test equality of the “direction parameters” for q sample points from the exponential distribution on the Lorentz cone. We give a table of critical values for the distribution on the three-dimensional Lorentz cone. Tables of critical values in higher dimensions can easily be computed following the same method as in dimension three.     

Win-probabilities for comparing two binary outcomes

This article considers the problem of choosing between two treatments that have binary outcomes with unknown success probabilities p₁ and p₂. The choice is based upon the information provided by two observations X₁ ～ B(n₁, p₁) and X₂ ～ B(n₂, p₂) from independent binomial distributions. Standard approaches to this problem utilize basic statistical inference methodologies such as hypothesis tests and confidence intervals for the difference p₁ ? p₂ of the success probabilities. However, in this article the analysis of win-probabilities is considered. If X*₁ represents a potential future observation from Treatment 1 while X*₂ represents a potential future observation from Treatment 2, win-probabilities are defined in terms of the comparisons of X*₁ and X*₂. These win-probabilities provide a direct assessment of the relative advantages and disadvantages of choosing either treatment for one future application, and their interpretation can be combined with other factors such as costs, side-effects, and the availabilities of the two treatments. In this article, it is shown how confidence intervals for the win-probabilities can be constructed, and examples of their use are provided. Computer code for the implementation of this new methodology is available from the authors.     

On proximity between PCA in the frequency domain and usual PCA

The principal components analysis (PCA) in the frequency domain of a stationary p-dimensional time series (X _n ) _n∈? leads to a summarizing time series written as a linear combination series X′ _n =∑ _m C _m ° X _n?m . Therefore, we observe that, when the coefficients C _m , m≠0, are close to 0, this PCA is close to the usual PCA, that is the PCA in the temporal domain. When the coefficients tend to 0, the corresponding limit is said to satisfy a property noted 𝒫, of which we will study the consequences. Finally, we will examine, for any series, the proximity between the two PCAs.     

Why is one choice different?

Let X_i be nonnegative independent random variables with finite expectations and . The value is what can be obtained by a “prophet”. A “mortal” on the other hand, may use k1 stopping rules t₁,…,t_k yielding a return E[max_i=1,…,kX_ti]. For nk the optimal return is where the supremum is over all stopping rules which stop by time n. The well known “prophet inequality” states that for all such X_i's and one choice and the constant “2” cannot be improved on for any n2. In contrast we show that for k=2 the best constant d satisfying for all such X_i's depends on n. On the way we obtain constants c_k such that .     

ON TESTING AGAINST RESTRICTED ALTERNATIVES FOR THE VARIANCES OF GAUSSIAN MODELS

Let π₁,…,π_p be p independent normal populations with means μ₁…, μ_p and variances σ²₁,…, σ²_p respectively. Let X(n_i) be a simple random sample of size n_i from π_i, i = 1,…,p. Given the simple random samples X(n₁),…, X(n_p) from π₁,…,π_p respectively, a test has been proposed for testing the homogeneity of variances H₀: σ²₁=…σ²_p, against the restricted alternative, H₁: σ²₁≥…≥σ²_p, with at least one strict inequality. Some properties of the test are discussed and critical values are tabulated.     

On Estimation of Hurst Parameter Under Noisy Observations

It is widely accepted that some financial data exhibit long memory or long dependence, and that the observed data usually possess noise. In the continuous time situation, the factional Brownian motion B^H and its extension are an important class of models to characterize the long memory or short memory of data, and Hurst parameter H is an index to describe the degree of dependence. In this article, we estimate the Hurst parameter of a discretely sampled fractional integral process corrupted by noise. We use the preaverage method to diminish the impact of noise, employ the filter method to exclude the strong dependence, and obtain the smoothed data, and estimate the Hurst parameter by the smoothed data. The asymptotic properties such as consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimator are established. Simulations for evaluating the performance of the estimator are conducted. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Wavelet-based estimation of regression function with strong mixing errors under fixed design

We consider wavelet-based non linear estimators, which are constructed by using the thresholding of the empirical wavelet coefficients, for the mean regression functions with strong mixing errors and investigate their asymptotic rates of convergence. We show that these estimators achieve nearly optimal convergence rates within a logarithmic term over a large range of Besov function classes B^s_{p, q}. The theory is illustrated with some numerical examples.

A new ingredient in our development is a Bernstein-type exponential inequality, for a sequence of random variables with certain mixing structure and are not necessarily bounded or sub-Gaussian. This moderate deviation inequality may be of independent interest.     

A Note on the Predictors of Differenced Sequences

In this note we consider the problems of optimal linear prediction (o.l.p.) and the minimum mean squared error prediction (m.m.s.e.p.) of a sequence X_t, which fits to a stationary and invertible ARMA model through the filter (1 - B^s)^d X_t= Y_t. It is shown that these two predictors are not identical in general from the theoretical point of view. Permitting the degree of differencing d to take any real value, a set of conditions for these commonly applied prediction formulas to be identical is given.     

Multiscale Bayesian state-space model for Granger causality analysis of brain signal

Modelling time-varying and frequency-specific relationships between two brain signals is becoming an essential methodological tool to answer theoretical questions in experimental neuroscience. In this article, we propose to estimate a frequency Granger causality statistic that may vary in time in order to evaluate the functional connections between two brain regions during a task. We use for that purpose an adaptive Kalman filter type of estimator of a linear Gaussian vector autoregressive model with coefficients evolving over time. The estimation procedure is achieved through variational Bayesian approximation and is extended for multiple trials. This Bayesian State Space (BSS) model provides a dynamical Granger-causality statistic that is quite natural. We propose to extend the BSS model to include the à trous Haar decomposition. This wavelet-based forecasting method is based on a multiscale resolution decomposition of the signal using the redundant à trous wavelet transform and allows us to capture short- and long-range dependencies between signals. Equally importantly it allows us to derive the desired dynamical and frequency-specific Granger-causality statistic. The application of these models to intracranial local field potential data recorded during a psychological experimental task shows the complex frequency-based cross-talk between amygdala and medial orbito-frontal cortex.     

Laplace approximations and Bayesian information criteria in possibly misspecified models

We provide general conditions to ensure the valid Laplace approximations to the marginal likelihoods under model misspecification, and derive the Bayesian information criteria including all terms of order O_p(1). Under conditions in theorem 1 of Lv and Liu [J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 76, (2014), 141–167] and a continuity condition for prior densities, asymptotic expansions with error terms of order o_p(1) are derived for the log-marginal likelihoods of possibly misspecified generalized linear models. We present some numerical examples to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed information criteria in misspecified models.     

The Likelihood Ratio Test for the Presence of Immunes in a Censored Sample

Models for populations with immune or cured individuals but with others subject to failure are important in many areas, such as medical statistics and criminology. One method of analysis of data from such populations involves estimating an immune proportion 1 ? p and the parameter(s) of a failure distribution for those individuals subject to failure. We use the exponential distribution with parameter λ for the latter and a mixture of this distribution with a mass 1 ? p at infinity to model the complete data. This paper develops the asymptotic theory of a test for whether an immune proportion is indeed present in the population, i.e., for H ₀:p = 1. This involves testing at the boundary of the parameter space for p. We use a likelihood ratio test for H ₀. and prove that minus twice the logarithm of the likelihood ratio has as an asymptotic distribution, not the chi-square distribution, but a 50–50 mixture of a chi-square distribution with 1 degree of freedom, and a point mass at 0. The result is proved under an independent censoring assumption with very mild restrictions.     

A robust permutation test for the concordance correlation coefficient

In this work, we developed a robust permutation test for the concordance correlation coefficient (ρ_c) for testing the general hypothesis H₀ : ρ_c = ρ_c(0). The proposed test is based on an appropriately studentized statistic. Theoretically, the test is proven to be asymptotically valid in the general setting when two paired variables are uncorrelated but dependent. This desired property was demonstrated across a range of distributional assumptions and sample sizes in simulation studies, where the test exhibits robust type I error control in all settings tested, even when the sample size is small. We demonstrated the application of this test in two real world examples across cardiac output measurements and endocardiographic imaging.     

Box-Cox transformed linear models: A parameter-based asymptotic approach

A Box-Cox transformed linear model usually has the form y(λ) = μ + β₁x₁ +… + β_px_p + oe, where y(λ) is the power transform of y. Although widely used in practice, the Fisher information matrix for the unknown parameters and, in particular, its inverse have not been studied seriously in the literature. We obtain those two important matrices to put the Box-Cox transformed linear model on a firmer ground. The question of how to make inference on β = (β₁,…,β_p)^T when λ; is estimated from the data is then discussed for large but finite sample size by studying some parameter-based asymptotics. Both unconditional and conditional inference are studied from the frequentist point of view.     

Maximum Likelihood Estimation in the Bivariate Binomial (0,1) Distribution:Application TO 2×2 Tables

We consider a 2×2 contingency table, with dichotomized qualitative characters (A,A) and (B,B), as a sample of size n drawn from a bivariate binomial (0,1) distribution. Maximum likelihood estimates p?₁p?₂ and p? are derived for the parameters of the two marginals p₁p₂ and the coefficient of correlation. It is found that p? is identical to Pearson's (1904)?=(χ²/n)½, where ?² is Pearson's usual chi-square for the 2×2 table. The asymptotic variance-covariance matrix of p?_lp?₂and p is also derived.     

Remarks on an integral functional driven by sub-fractional Brownian motion

This paper studies the functionals where is a one-dimension sub-fractional Brownian motion with index H∈(0,1). It shows that there exists a constant p_H∈(1,2) such that p-variation of the process (j=1,2) is equal to 0 if p>p_H, where ?_j, j=1,2, are the local time and weighted local time of S^H, respectively. This extends the classical results for Brownian motion.     

Global convergence of the log-concave MLE when the true distribution is geometric

Let X₁, …, X_n be i.i.d. from a discrete probability mass function (pmf) p. In Balabdaoui et al. [(2013), ‘Asymptotic Distribution of the Discrete Log-Concave mle and Some Applications’, JRSS-B, in press], the pointwise limit distribution of the log-concave maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) was derived in both the well- and misspecified settings. In the well-specified setting, the geometric distribution was excluded, classified as being degenerate. In this article, we establish the global asymptotic theory of the log-concave MLE of a geometric pmf in all ?_q distances for q∈{1, 2, …}∪{∞}. We also show how these asymptotic results could be used in testing whether a pmf is geometric.     

Testing for and against a set of linear inequality constraints in a multinomial setting

There are numerous situations in categorical data analysis where one wishes to test hypotheses involving a set of linear inequality constraints placed upon the cell probabilities. For example, it may be of interest to test for symmetry in k × k contingency tables against one-sided alternatives. In this case, the null hypothesis imposes a set of linear equalities on the cell probabilities (namely p_ij = P_ji ×i > j), whereas the alternative specifies directional inequalities. Another important application (Robertson, Wright, and Dykstra 1988) is testing for or against stochastic ordering between the marginals of a k × k contingency table when the variables are ordinal and independence holds. Here we extend existing likelihood-ratio results to cover more general situations. To be specific, we consider testing H_t,0 against H₁ - H₀ and H₁ against H₂ - H ₁ when H₀:k × i=1 p_ix_ji = 0, j = 1,…, s, H₁:k × i=1 p_ix_ji × 0, j = 1,…, s, and does not impose any restrictions on p. The x_ji's are known constants, and s × k - 1. We show that the asymptotic distributions of the likelihood-ratio tests are of chi-bar-square type, and provide expressions for the weighting values.     

Optimum invariant tests for random manova models

Consider the canonical-form MANOVA setup with X: n × p = (+ E, X_i n_i × p, i = 1, 2, 3, M_i: n_i × p, i = 1, 2, n₁ + n₂ + n₃) p, where E is a normally distributed error matrix with mean zero and dispersion I_n (> 0 (positive definite). Assume (in contrast with the usual case) that M₁i is normal with mean zero and dispersion I_n1) and M₂2 is either fixed or random normal with mean zero and different dispersion matrix I_n2 (being unknown. It is also assumed that M₁ E, and M₂ (if random) are all independent. For testing H₀) = 0 versus H₁: (> 0, it is shown that when either n₂ = 0 or M₂ is fixed if n₂ > 0, the trace test of Pillai (1955) is uniformly most powerful invariant (UMPI) if min(n₁, p)= 1 and locally best invariant (LBI) if min(n₁ p) > 1 underthe action of the full linear group Gl (p). When p > 1, the LBI test is also derived under a somewhat smaller group G_T(p) of p × p lower triangular matrices with positive diagonal elements. However, such results do not hold if n₂ > 0 and M₂ is random. The null, nonnull, and optimality robustness of Pillai's trace test under Gl(p) for suitable deviations from normality is pointed out.     

Reliability analysis of systems with components having two dependent subcomponents

In this article, a system that consists of n independent components each having two dependent subcomponents (A_i, B_i), i = 1, …, n is considered. The system is assumed to compose of components that have two correlated subcomponents (A_i, B_i), and functions iff both systems of subcomponents A₁, A₂, …, A_n and B₁, B₂, …, B_n work under certain structural rules. The expressions for reliability and mean time to failure of such systems are obtained. A sufficient condition to compare two systems of bivariate components in terms of stochastic ordering is also presented.