Reflections on Accuracy

The difference between test accuracy and predictive accuracy is presented and defined. The failure to distinguish between these two types of measures is shown to have led to a misguided debate over the interpretation of prevalence estimates. The distinction between test accuracy defined as sensitivity and specificity, and predictive accuracy defined as positive and negative predictive value is shown to reflect the choice of the denominator used to calculate true positive, false positive, false negative, and true negative rates. It is further shown that any instrument will tend to overestimate prevalence in low base rate populations and underestimate it in those populations where prevalence is high. The implications of these observations are then discussed in terms of the need to define diagnostic thresholds that have clinical and policy relevance.     

Close relationships research: a resource for couple and family therapists

This article describes the relatively new field of close relationships research, offering a representative list of topics studied by relationship researchers. Some of the common interests shared by both close relationships researchers and couple and family therapists are described, with the shared emphasis on relationships as an anchor for both fields. Some representative love theories are discussed, and Love Styles theory and research are presented in considerable detail. A clinical case example indicates how love styles research may be employed to advantage by couple therapists, and the utility of other close relationships theories and measures for therapy is briefly discussed.     

Harnessing the reliability of outcome measures

A method is presented for engineering the necessary levels of measurement reliability for evaluating ongoing programs. Two studies of levels of client functioning at a community mental health center (CMHC), in which an outcome measure, the Global Assessment Scale (GAS), did not perform as expected, drew attention to the need for better control of outcome measure reliabilities. Drawing from generalizability theory, a study was conducted of three sources of GAS score variance — clients, raters, and training in the use of the scale. Several estimates of reliability (ERs) were developed, depending on the manner in which the GAS ratings were, or would be, obtained in the CMHC. The differences among these ERs clarified why the GAS had lower reliability when used in our setting. Finally, two hypothetical examples are described to illustrate the utility of applying generalizability theory to achieve higher reliabilities for outcome measures.     

Understanding hoarding in older adults

Compulsive hoarding is a debilitating disorder that is only recently becoming understood. Hoarding has been studied primarily in the general population, with only a few researchers focusing on hoarding in older adults, even though the prevalence and severity of the disorder appears to increase with aging. Hoarding seriously affects the quality of one's life and can also cause safety and health problems for individuals and the community. Established treatments for hoarding are relatively new and often need to be extended over a long period of time. Nurses can play an important role in helping identify the problem of hoarding in older adults, determining the types of safety and health hazards that need to be addressed, and contacting the appropriate community agencies.     

Number of People in the United States Experiencing Ambulatory and Independent Living Difficulties

Estimating the characteristics of the “disabled” population is necessary for some governments and of interest to health researchers concerned with producing disability prevalence rates. Because generating easy-to-understand estimates of disability in the population is important, this article provides U.S. population estimates for two disability-related measures by using the 2009 to 2011 American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample file. The number of people who have “independent living” and “ambulatory” difficulties is calculated from a sample of 9,204,437 (representing >309 million people). The percentage for “disabled” is found to vary by racial and ethnic category, sex, age, citizenship status, educational attainment, and state-level regions divided by weather.     

Compositional and Temporal Dynamics of International Migration in the EU/EFTA: A New Metric for Assessing Countries’ Immigration and Integration Policies

In this article, I derive estimates of migrants’ expected years of residence in each of 31 countries in the European Union and European Free Trade Association each year from 2002 to 2007. A country‐level measure summarizing the temporal dynamics of international migration, I compare my results against the often used compositional measure of the percent foreign born, and show that these two measures reflect different population processes. I likewise demonstrate the utility of the measure derived here as a tool to assess countries’ integration policies on long‐term residence per their scores in the Migrant Integration Policy Index. Key theoretical and policy implications are discussed.     

Engaging with children as co-researchers: challenges,counter-challenges and solutions

Participatory approaches have become de rigueur in social research involving children. A growing trend is research by children where researchers engage (or employ) children as co-researchers or primary researchers. In this paper, we critique the ethical, methodological and practical issues associated with this participatory approach. The discussion is framed around six challenges: (1) Children lack research competence; (2) A comprehensive training programme is required; (3) Insider/outsider perspectives are difficult to balance; (4) Remuneration is complex; (5) Power differentials need to be overcome; and (6) Children need to be protected. For each challenge we propose a counter-challenge. Additionally, we offer pragmatic solutions to the issues raised, so that the paper holds practical utility to social researchers who utilise this type of participatory approach. Overall we argue that despite the approach’s inherent challenges, children as researchers are a powerful conduit for other children’s voices.     

Effects of an introductory letter on response rates to a teen/parent telephone health survey

The authors conducted a pilot study in preparation for a larger investigation that will rely on telephone surveys to assess select health behaviors of teens and their parents, with a focus on indoor tanning. This study used a randomized design to assess the impact of a presurvey letter on response rates to a telephone survey, as well as prevalence estimates of ever having used an indoor tanning facility. The letter did not have a significant effect on response rates or prevalence estimates in the two cities under study. Findings suggest that researchers should not assume that a letter sent in advance of a telephone survey will necessarily increase response rates enough to justify their use.     

Gambling and Problem Gambling in Sweden: Changes Between 1998 and 2009

Gambling participation and rates of problem gambling change over time in response to a variety of factors including gambling availability, demographic changes and adaptation at individual and societal levels. These relationship are complex and only partially understood. The major aim of the present study was to provide general population estimates of gambling participation and problem gambling for Sweden and compare these estimates with estimates from a previous national study. The study was also designed to identify risk factors for problem gambling including change in these factors over time. Data are from the first phase of the Swedish Longitudinal Gambling Study (Swelogs) in which a representative sample of 8,165 people was assessed using validated problem gambling and other measures to facilitate comparison with findings from the 1997/1998 Swedish Gambling Study (Swegs). Overall, it was found that gambling participation reduced markedly, although in some population sectors increases were evident for some forms including poker and electronic gaming machines. Lifetime prevalence of probable pathological gambling increased; however, past 12 months probable pathological and problem gambling prevalence did not. Males, younger adults and people born outside Sweden were at high risk in both studies. Significant prevalence increases were evident for people aged 18–24 and those with low levels of education. The results indicate that relationships between gambling exposure, participation and problems are dynamic with shifting implications for public health and social policy.     

Social Policy Supports for Adolescence in the Twenty‐First Century: Framing Questions

Worldwide changes are altering the conditions under which adolescents prepare for adulthood and are increasing the need for thoughtful, tailored, youth policies and programs. This article offers a set of “framing questions” aimed at helping countries and communities create policies that are adapted to the particulars of a given context. These questions are presented as a means for policy makers, advocates, practitioners, researchers, community members, parents, and adolescents to formulate services, supports, and opportunities that will help adolescents become adults who are problem free, fully prepared, and fully engaged in their communities.     

Carving up the Social World: The Impact of Geographic Units on Research Results

Abstract

The use of areal units as units of analysis is widespread in the social sciences. Typically, however, studies employing areal units gloss over the way in which the units were chosen. After illustrating how different theoretical and policy conclusions can be drawn from different lattices, it is asserted that the problem is not methodological but epistemological. “True” relationships are not to be found due to the lack of correlation between proximity and closeness. Moreover, judgement must enter into the decisions to employ a particular lattice. Thus, we need to understand the prejudices that must underlie any attempt to carve up the world. Several guidelines are presented to aid the researchers.     

Toward an Integrated Theoretical Model of Risk Factors for Post-Deployment PTSD and its Implications for Justice-Involved Veterans

At present, very little knowledge exists about individual differences in susceptibility to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after combat trauma. Two differing perspectives have emerged. Some researchers maintain that a distinct linear dose-response relationship exists between the severity of combat trauma and the later development of PTSD. Conversely, others have questioned whether differential exposure to combat alone is sufficient to explain differences in the prevalence of post-deployment PTSD. This debate has implications for military veteran offenders who suffer from PTSD. In this paper, I propose a cumulative stress model that posits that it is the particular combination of psychosocial factors and combat exposure that interact to predict the likelihood of developing and maintaining PTSD after deployment. Therefore, PTSD influences post-deployment offending and antisocial behavior through this mechanism. Finally, this paper will discuss implications for criminal justice policy and practice.     

Improving the sensitivity of needs assessment for substance abuse prevention planning: the measurement of differential severity of consequences for individual substance types

There is an absence of systematic, comparative research examining the negative consequences that are experienced as a result of using specific substances. Further, techniques typically used for needs assessment (i.e., prevalence proportions) do not take into account the probability of experiencing a negative consequence as a result of using specific substances. An approximated severity index is proposed that: a) takes into account the probability of experiencing negative consequences as a result of using specific substances; and b) is comparable across substances. Data from the NSDUH and the ADSS are used to demonstrate these techniques. The findings suggest that substances typically considered priorities based on prevalence proportions are not the same substances that have a high probability of causing negative consequences. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.     

Third Sector Social Policy Research in Australia: New Actors,New Politics

Human service NGOs have become central actors in contemporary welfare states. The broadening of the role of NGOs in Australia as both providers of the human services that are an integral part of the welfare state and as lobbyists or advocates and agents of social change has been widely acknowledged; however, this paper focuses on a recent deepening of the role of human service NGOs in the Australian welfare state by exploring an additional dimension of their growth. Based on a recent study, it is evident that there has been increasing involvement by human service NGOs in the production of social policy knowledge through ‘policy research’ activities. The research mapped policy research activities, policy research infrastructure and policy research resources in human service NGOs, and also captured NGO policy researchers’ perceptions of the rationales and motivations driving NGOs in this direction. It was clear that this shift is based on strong beliefs that researchers located within human service agencies are best placed to produce the kind of knowledge that should form the basis of social policies responding to human need. Other drivers identified by policy researchers suggest, however, that the inclusion of third sector organizations in policy processes cannot simply be understood as the ‘opening up’ or ‘democratization’ of social policy processes to include Third Sector participants. The motivations for human service NGOs moving into social policy knowledge production in Australia are thus complex and diverse. Drawing on the findings of our study, Researching the Researchers, this paper reflects on the implications of this reconfiguration of welfare state politics. Who produces the knowledge that influences, moulds, and even determines the allocation of resources for the delivery of human services, and how this knowledge is produced have been ongoing concerns in social policy scholarship. We suggest, that in the case of human service NGOs in Australia, entry into the field of social policy research can be understood as a reconfiguring of the democratic system of policy determination. It may also be one in which the NGOs become ‘experts’ on citizens’ needs through research practices that are fundamentally less, rather than more inclusive, of the subjects of social policy. The implications of a possible shift in power to influence and in some cases determine who gets what in the welfare state is of deep concern in relation to future models of social protection and ultimately the redistributive and democratic processes of nation states. This paper seeks to question the often-unquestioned ascendancy of the third sector in welfare and asks whether this shift is in keeping with the democratic process and whether it is the best way to determine and satisfy human need.     

Negotiating with Gatekeepers in Research with Disadvantaged Children: A Case Study of Children of Mothers with Intellectual Disability

Child‐oriented researchers have long recognised children's right to be heard in research about their lives and, as experts about childhood, their perspectives should inform social policy and research. While it is encouraging that more children are consulted about matters of importance to them, some children's voices remain silenced. When researchers have to liaise with adults, such as parents and social workers, to recruit children, these adults make decisions about who participates. An account of recruiting children of mothers with intellectual disability, a potentially disadvantaged group, is presented. The reasons for gatekeeping and the implications of this are explored.     

Men's sexual coercion in intimate relationships: development and initial validation of the Sexual Coercion in Intimate Relationships scale

We report the development and initial validation of the Sexual Coercion in Intimate Relationships Scale (SCIRS), a measure designed to assess the prevalence and severity of sexual coercion in committed intimate relationships. We review existing measures of sexual coercion and discuss their limitations, describe the identification of the SCIRS items, perform a principal components analysis and describe the resulting three components, and present evidence for the convergent and discriminative validity of the SCIRS. Because sexual coercion in intimate relationships often takes the form of subtle tactics, the SCIRS items assess communicative tactics such as hinting and subtle manipulations in addition to tactics such as the use of physical force. The SCIRS provides researchers and clinicians with a valid, reliable, and comprehensive measure with which to study the dynamics of sexual coercion in intimate relationships.     

The SOGS-RA vs. the MAGS-7: Prevalence Estimates and Classification Congruence

The purpose of this study was to compare the prevalence rate estimates and congruence in classification status derived from two popular measures of adolescent gambling (SOGS-RA and MAGS-7). Adolescents from three states (Alabama, Mississippi, and Oregon) completed an anonymous questionnaire ( n =1846 high school students total). Results indicate that the prevalence of probable adolescent pathological gambling varied both as a function of instrument and cut-off point utilized for classification (range 1.7%-8.2%). Classification groups (non-problem, at-risk, and problem gamblers) generated by both instruments were found to be associated with reports of gambling frequency, amount of money lost in one gambling occasion, and parental gambling problems. However, concern was raised because the MAGS-7 and the SOGS-RA had little congruence in their three-group classification decisions for specific individuals (e.g., only 20.5% agreement for problem gamblers). To improve clinical utility, an empirical case was made for using the SOGS-RA to generate a fourth group of adolescent gamblers, which we labeled "probable pathological gamblers" (SOGS-RA > or = 6). This group was differentiated from the remaining gambling groups on all the validity indices. The implications and limitations of these findings, as well as future directions, are discussed.     

SMOKE-FREE AIR LAWS, CIGARETTE PRICES, AND ADULT CIGARETTE DEMAND

This article examines the impact of cigarette prices and smoke-free air laws on adult smoking. Probit methods and a generalized linear model with log-link and Gaussian distribution are employed to model adult smoking propensity and intensity, respectively. After controlling for unobserved state-level heterogeneity, which can influence both tobacco policy and smoking behavior, the estimates from this study imply that an inverse relationship exists between cigarette prices and both smoking prevalence and average cigarette consumption by adult smokers. The estimates also imply that more restrictive smoke-free air laws decrease average smoking by adult smokers but have little impact on prevalence. (JEL I18 )     

Heterogeneous Symptom Patterns of Sexually Abused Children in Treatment: Understanding the Complexity of the Problem

A major challenge for clinicians and researchers is the heterogeneity of the severity and type of symptoms presented by sexually abused youth, including those who are subclinical on traditional clinical measures but still present to treatment. Most research continues to treat sexually abused youth as a single population and has not assessed the outcomes or symptom trajectories of various groups of sexually abused youth. Participants included 107 sexually abused children and their nonoffending parents presenting to a cognitive-behavioral group treatment. A cluster analysis using child- and parent-report measures revealed four profiles, including Subclinical, Highly Distressed, Problem Behaviors, and Self-Reported Distress clusters. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to create separate child- and parent-report models of weekly symptomatology to examine differential change over the course of treatment. Contrary to expectation, there was little variation in the weekly rates of change for the different symptom groups; however, all groups evidenced a decrease in symptoms over the course of treatment, including the Subclinical cluster.     

The nature and impact of population policy in Kenya

This paper examined the existence and impact of population policy in Kenya. The findings show that Kenya has adopted an antinatalist population policy which also aims at promoting balanced population distribution. This policy is, however, not well-designed and integrated. The demographic targets are often not specified or vague; the program measures are limited; and the policy does not encompass most geographical areas and subpopulation in terms of needs and resource endowments. There is need to reformulate the existing population policy in Kenya and make it well-designed and more rigorous. The policy must have set demographic targets to be achieved within specified time periods. The program measures must be broadened to include a wider range of factors directly and indirectly implied in a population resource equation at the present and in the future. Such a policy will achieve controlled population growth and balanced population distribution.