Likely (and Unlikely) Voters and the Assessment of Campaign Dynamics

Only in recent years has the "likely voter" technology beenextended to polls well in advance of an election. In the caseof the 2000 U.S. presidential election, CNN/USA Today/Galluptracking polls indicated considerable fluctuations in likelyvoter preferences, greater than among the larger pool of registeredvoters surveyed. This article explores how Gallup’s likelyvoter model exaggerates the reported volatility of voter preferencesduring the campaign. Much of the reported variation in candidatepreference reported by Gallup in that election is not due toactual voter shifts in preference but rather to changes in thecomposition of Gallup’s likely voter pool. The findingshighlight dangers of relying on samples of likely voters whenpolling well before Election Day.     

Casting the 2000 U.S. Presidential Primaries

This article examines the 2000 U.S. presidential primaries as a case study in "casting" by early journalistic and polling choices. Casting is a strong series of candidate expectations expressed by news organizations early in campaigns. Often casting choices are based significantly on early polls (and campaign cash), and sometimes they can become self-fulfilling prophecies as campaign coverage and elections move forward.

The author argues that casting occurs in regularly scheduled and significant news stories. The news choices fulfill both organizational needs and the routines of dramatic storytelling. The researcher examined polls and news coverage in the primary season from January 1 until March 14, 2000. News coverage was determined by daily keyword searches on Lexis-Nexis for each of nine candidates. The researcher tracked not only overall news coverage, but also news attention per polling point. Casting was clear: Al Gore and George W. Bush as extensively-covered front runners, a "serious candidates" field covered more extensively than their initial poll numbers would seem to justify, and nearly invisible "immediate also-rans."     

Policy, Preferences, and Patriarchy: The Division of Domestic Labor in East Germany, West Germany, and the United States

Individual agency observed in the gendered division of laboris shaped by structural factors, but only recently has evidenceemerged that the effect of women’s resources varies systematicallyin its sociopolitical context. Here we use the 1994 InternationalSocial Survey Program to assess whether the relative effectof a proxy for women’s and men’s preferences—hallmarkof individual choice—varies as well across three countrieswith divergent historical policy approaches regarding the privatesphere. East German socialist policies required and supportedwomen’s employment; West German policy promulgated a malebreadwinner model, and U.S. policy primarily remains silenton the private sphere. The division of domestic tasks and relativestrength of individual preferences on shifting it vary by region.In the former East Germany the division of domestic labor ismore egalitarian and the effect of preferences is small butequal for the genders. In West Germany the division is moretraditional and preference effects are greater, but gender differencesin these are insignificant. The U.S. division of domestic taskfalls between the two German regions, and the gender differencein preference effects is the greatest, with U.S. men’spreferences predicting significantly more variance than do U.S.women’s. Consequently, allowing the market to dominatedoes not yield equal strength of preferences in the individual-levelmodels used to predict the division of domestic tasks. Thissupports the dual-system feminist claims that capitalism canexacerbate nonmarket patriarchal hierarchies.     

Can a Poll Affect Perception of Candidate Traits?

During presidential elections, poll results frequently are presentedin the news. Reporters use these polls to tell the public whatit thinks about the presidential candidates. We argue that pollingresults tell the public what it should think about the presidentialcandidates as well. This study outlines how a character traitthat is not usually used to assess presidential candidates wasput into play during the 2004 presidential campaign. By repeatedlyascribing "stubbornness" to incumbent president George W. Bush,Democratic challenger John Kerry may have prompted this trait’sinclusion in a Los Angeles Times summer 2004 survey. The poll’sevidence that the public saw Bush as more stubborn than Kerrythen produced an attribute agenda-setting effect that strengthenedthe link between that term and Bush. Using data from the NationalAnnenberg Election Survey, we argue that the news coverage ofthis Los Angeles Times poll increased the salience of the trait"stubborn" in assessing President George W. Bush during Juneof the 2004 presidential campaign.     

THE OBSESSION TO FORECAST: PRE-ELECTION POLLS IN THE ISRAELI PRESS

The generous coverage of pre-election polls in the media hasstimulated a debate on the effects of publicized polls on voters.Data for this study come from a content analysis of all pressreports on polls during six pre-election campaigns in Israel(1969–88). The findings highlight the impressive increaseof poll reports both by space and by prominence in the press.Analysis of the reports' content reveals that the style of reportingpolls has become dominated by "horse-race" journalism, wherepredictions and popularity ratings are the leading themes. Inaddition, although the reports have become more detailed andinformative, they still do not adequately define or interpretmethodological deficiencies. Finally, the analysis examinesthe intercorrelations between attributes of coverage and predictionserrors. The fact that the independent variable, media coverageof polls, has changed significantly calls for the inclusionof this factor in any study of polls' effects.     

WOMEN CANDIDATES IN THE NEWS: AN EXAMINATION OF GENDER DIFFERENCES IN U.S. SENATE CAMPAIGN COVERAGE

By covering male and female candidates differently, the newsmedia may influence the success of female candidates for publicoffice. A content analysis was conducted to assess potentiallyimportant differences in the newspaper coverage of a sampleof male and female U.S. Senate candidates in the elections of1982–86. The results of the study show that female candidates for the U.S. Senate are treated differently by the press.Female candidates receive less news coverage and the coveragethey do receive concentrates more on their viability and lesson their issue positions. Furthermore, female candidates' viabilitycoverage is more negative than that of their male counterparts.Given these gender differences in press treatment, we wouldexpect voters' recognition of male candidates to exceed thatof female candidates and we would also expect evaluations offemale candidates to be tied more closely to their perceivedviabil ity. Because female candidates are often considered noncompetitiveby the press, this attention to the horserace may lead votersto develop more negative evaluations of female candidates. Theseresults suggest that current patterns of press coverage mayserve as a critical obstacle for women running for the U.S.Senate.     

Political Polling and the New Media Culture: A Case of More Being Less

Changes in journalism—including newsroom cutbacks, anemphasis on repackaging secondhand material, and the demandsof 24-hour news—have expanded the reliance on polls asnews, including polls of a sort once considered not reliablefor publication, and led to a more superficial understandingof the 2004 presidential race. The proliferation of outletsoffering news, which has resulted in greater competition foraudience, has also intensified the motivation of using pollsin part for their marketing value rather than purely their probativejournalistic value. The more "synthetic" style of contemporaryjournalism has increased the tendency to allow polls to createa context for journalists to explain and organize other news—becomingthe lens through which reporters see and order a more interpretativenews environment. A greater dependence on horse race trackingpolls by the media has reinforced these tendencies and furtherthinned the public’s understanding toward who won andaway from why. Growing audience skepticism and political polarizationhave created an environment of distrust about the methodologyand integrity of polling. All of these factors, in turn, arefrustrating the efforts of academic and commercial pollstersto maintain standards and deepen understanding among journalistsabout public opinion research and how to use it as journalism.     

The Impact of Cell Phone Noncoverage Bias on Polling in the 2004 Presidential Election

Despite concerns that the accuracy of preelection telephonepolls would be harmed by the omission of voters who could bereached only by cell phone, most national polls performed wellin predicting President George W. Bush’s reelection in2004, and state polls were generally accurate as well. The nationalexit poll conducted by the National Election Pool found that7 percent of Election Day voters had cell phone service butno land line; younger voters were far more likely to be cell-only:19 percent among those age 18–24 and 20 percent amongthose age 25–29. Within these two youngest age cohorts,cell-only voters were significantly more likely to be singleand childless. While cell-only voters were more supportive ofJohn Kerry than voters overall, they were similar to other voterswithin their own age cohort. Because of this, preelection telephonesurveys that weighted their data appropriately by age were notsignificantly biased by the absence of the cell-only voters.     

Military Triumph, Racial Transcendence, and Colin Powell

A "black kid of no early promise," Colin Powell became the youngestgeneral in the U.S. Army, and then in short order national securityadvisor, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the nation’ssecretary of state. What does this extraordinary story revealabout contemporary American political life? Analyzing surveyssupplied by the National Election Study and the National BlackElection Study, we first establish that Powell’s rapidrise to prominence is matched by his remarkable popularity amongthe American public. Next, we develop and test two possibleexplanations for Powell’s popularity. One supposes thatthe secret to Powell’s high standing with the public liesin his association with success on the battlefield: Powell asthe victorious general. The other explanation invokes racialprogress, the disappearance of racism among whites, and thedecline of identity politics among blacks: Powell as raciallytranscendent. In the final section of the article, informedby our results, we offer some speculations about American politicstoday—about the political implications of military accomplishmentand about the multiplicity of conditions that are required forAmericans to "see through" race.     

Privacy in the Information Age

In recent years, surveillance has become an increasingly salientpolitical issue in the United States. In this article we presentdata on public opinion about privacy invasions and surveillancetechniques since 1990. Generally speaking, the polls show thatconcern about threats to personal privacy has been growing inrecent years. Although the public was temporarily willing toexpand the government’s investigative powers in the aftermathof the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, support for mostforms of surveillance has declined.     

VIETNAM RECONSIDERED: AN ATTITUDINAL SURVEY OF U.S. ARMY GENERAL OFFICERS

The 173 individuals who held U.S. Army general officer commandpositions in Vietnam during the period 1965–1972 weresurveyed in September 1974 about various aspects of that conflict.Their responses reflected a general dissatisfaction with Washingtonmanagement of the war. Perceptions of media coverage of thewar were very negative. A striking absence of consensus wasapparent in many areas of the survey     

The Polls Trends: Public Reactions to Global Health Threats and Infectious Diseases

Over the past two decades, newly emerging infectious diseaseshave developed into major global health concerns, sparking intensemedia coverage, and triggering fears of a global outbreak amongpublic health experts and authorities. This article focuseson trends in American attitudes toward these newly emerged infectiousdiseases by analyzing poll data over the past 6 years aboutissues relating to avian flu, severe acute respiratory syndrome,West Nile virus, and anthrax. The polls show that Americans’attention to news coverage seemed to be event driven, peakingwhen there were new human or animal cases, and decreasing rapidlywhen the diseases seemed to have been contained. Americans’perceptions of threats were usually the highest in the earlystages of major outbreaks. The public became more complacentwhen the outbreaks seemed to be under control. Both behavioralchanges and general knowledge remained largely constant, suggestinga limited impact of the various informational and awarenesscampaigns by governmental agencies in the wake of these pandemics. Abbreviations: ABC, ABC News • ABC/WP, ABC News/Washington Post • AP/IPSOS, IPSOS-Public Affairs for Associated Press • CBS, CBS News • CBS/NYT, CBS News/New York Times • GALLUP, Gallup Organization • GALLUP/CNN/USA, Gallup Organization for CNN/USA Today • HARRIS/TIME/CNN, Harris Interactive for Time and CNN • ICR/HARVARD, International Communications Research for Harvard School of Public Health Project on the Public and Biological Security • ICR/HARVARD-RWJF, International Communications Research for Harvard School of Public Health Project, Robert Wood Johnson Foundation • IPSOS/DC, IPSOS-Reid for Dittus Communications • NORC, National Opinion Research Center • OD/FOX, Opinion Dynamics for Fox News • PSRA/KAISER, Princeton Survey Research Associates for Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, Harvard School of Public Health • PSRA/NEWS, Princeton Survey Research Associates for Newsweek • PSRA/PEW, Princeton Survey Research Associates for Pew Research Center • PSRA/PMFMI, Princeton Survey Research Associates for Prevention Magazine/Food Marketing Institute     

THE SHORT-TERM EFFECT OF ELECTION POLLS ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES: THE 1988 CANCDIAN FEDERAL ELECTION

Polls do not simply measure public opinion; they also providevital information that the public can use to form opinions andto make decisions. Using multiple regression analysis, the authorsfound that published polls had a powerful impact on the valueof the Canadian dollar during the 1988 Canadian federal election.This appears to have been due to the unprecedented importanceof economic issues in the federal campaign, the distinctivepositions taken by the major political parties with respectto the U.S.-Canadian Free Trade Agreement, and to the proliferationof "horse-race" polls in the media. These results have implicationsfor understanding the behavior of other elite groups, such asfinancial contributors and volunteer campaign workers, who mayalso use published horse-race polls to handicap election outcomes.     

Conformity to AAPOR Standards in Newspaper Reporting of Public Opinion Polls

This study examines three newspapers' level of conformity toAAPOR standards of minimal disclosure in their reporting ofpublic opinion polls. Analysis of 116 polls published in theperiod of 1972–79 indicates a dramatic increase in thenumber of polls reported, but not in the level of conformityto AAPOR standards. Conformity is higher when the polls concernelections rather than nonelection topics, and when newspapersthemselves, rather than external sources, are the sources ofthe polls.     

Reporting "The Polls" in 2004

Media reports of polls indicate how well public opinion pollshave been integrated into campaign coverage. This article examineshow polls were used in 2004. Although there were relativelylimited methodological changes in how polls were conducted in2004, there were changes in how the polls were treated in themedia. Americans in 2004 were subjected to intense debates aboutpolls and to as much reporting about "the polls" as there wasof the polls themselves. The discussion of "the polls" in 2004included claims of electability during the Democratic nominatingprocess, increased reporting about methodological issues, andheightened political criticisms of "the polls." The articleconcludes with a discussion of the current state and the futureof news polling.     

A Cross-Cultural Content-Analytic Comparison of the Hookup Culture in U.S. and Dutch Teen Girl Magazines

This quantitative content analysis investigated the hookup culture in U.S. and Dutch teen girl magazines. Using Hofstede's cultural dimension of masculinity/femininity, the hookup culture (i.e., the relational context of sex, emotional context of sex, specific sexual activities, and contraceptives) was examined in 2,496 stories from all 2006 through 2008 issues of the three most popular U.S. (i.e., Seventeen, CosmoGirl! U.S. edition, and Teen) and Dutch teen girl magazines (i.e., Fancy, CosmoGirl! Netherlands edition, and Girlz!). Regarding the relational context of sex, stories about casual sex occurred more often in U.S. magazines, and Dutch magazines focused more on committed sex. Dutch magazines also emphasized sex within the emotional context of love more often than did U.S. magazines. In terms of sexual activities, coital sex was mentioned more often in U.S. coverage, while petting was mentioned more frequently in Dutch coverage. Condoms were covered more positively in U.S. magazines than in Dutch magazines. Overall, the hookup culture seems to be more visible in U.S. magazines for the occurrence of casual sex and lack of love stories, whereas it does not emerge in Dutch magazines due to the presence of committed sex and love-related articles.     

American Ebola Story: frames in U.S. National Newspapers

The 2014 Ebola epidemic saw the first symptomatic and fatal cases of Ebola in the United States. Concurrently, news coverage in U.S. media about Ebola increased. Research has shown that media’s framing of events influences public perception and understanding. To address framing of the Ebola epidemic in the U.S. media, researchers conducted a content analysis of newspaper articles reporting on the Ebola epidemic during the U.S. contact tracing period from September 30 to December 2, 2014 (n = 718). The top three circulating U.S. national newspapers were used in the analysis. The results show that the human interest, conflict, and action frames had the highest presence across newspaper articles, whereas the presence of attribution of responsibility, morality, and economic frames was lower. This study furthers knowledge of U.S. news media framing and coverage of new public health emergencies, and how newspapers may drive audience understanding and perception of the 2014 Ebola epidemic. This study also discusses implications of the findings and suggests directions for future research.     

Boeing’s Diffusion of Commercial Aircraft Technology to Japan: Surrendering the U.S. Industry for Foreign Financial Support

Japanese firms have become increasingly important first-tier suppliers to the U.S. commercial aircraft industry (large passenger jets). Over time, this relationship has evolved from a simple “build to print” subcontractor arrangement to a turnkey “design and build” risk-sharing partnership. Using the Boeing 767, 777, and 787 as examples, we argue that the motives for Boeing’s commercial outsourcing to Japan are to access the Japanese market, spread risk, gain access to capital, and lower U.S. spending on research and development (R&D). This has clear implications for U.S. trade and employment, in that Japanese-subcontracting boosts foreign imports and reduces the need for domestic production workers and U.S. suppliers. From a trade perspective, however, a troubling feature of allowing the Japanese to produce large commercial aircraft subassemblies is that major Japanese public financial supports are involved which contravene existing international agreements on production subsidies. We review the types of production contracts that Japanese companies have sought on the Boeing 767, 777, and 787 programs. These contracts have allowed the Japanese to develop new capabilities in terms of production capacity, tooling, design, and final assembly. Ultimately, these capabilities imply that Japan will eventually enter the market as a fully-fledged producer of commercial aircraft. This does not bode well for the U.S. commercial aerospace sector.     

The Role of Corporations in the 1980 U.S. Congressional Elections*

The issues of whether and how corporate campaign donations affect the operation of American elections have recently become the focus of public and scholarly debate. Using Federal Election Commission campaign finance data, this analysis identifies a link betwren contributions from business PACs and candidate success in the 1980 U.S. congressional elections. Findings also confirm an association between corporate support and legislative voting for candidates re-elected in 1980. Candidates heavily supported by business PACs during the campaign did better at the polls and were more likely to vote conservatively if elected than those not so strongly endorsed by economic interests. Results are discussed in terms of various theories of the state as well as their relevance to potential election finance reforms.     

Saintly Campaigning: Devotional-Promotional Communication and the U.S. Tour of St. Therese's Relics

This article discusses the public relations campaign for the U.S. tour of St. Therese's relics from 1999 to 2000, from the approach of devotional-promotional communication, a particular form of communication that inspires allegiance for an individual, political entity, or religion. Textual analysis of media coverage, survey research, and personal in-depth interviews are used to examine the campaign. The campaign appears to have been successful for organizers in terms of media coverage, attendance, and other effects.