Group Testing,the Pooled Hypergeometric Distribution,and Estimating the Number of Defectives in Small Populations

The testing of combined bacteriological samples – or “group testing” – was introduced to reduce the cost of identifying defective individuals in populations containing small proportions of defectives. It may also be applied to plants, animals, or food samples to estimate proportions infected, or to accept or reject populations. Given the proportion defective in the population, the number of positive combined samples is approximately binomial when the population is large: we find the exact distribution when groups include the same number of samples. We derive some properties of this distribution, and consider maximum-likelihood and Bayesian estimation of the number defective.     

Estimation of the parameters of the Gompertz distribution under the first failure-censored sampling plan

This article presents the goodness-of-fit tests for the Laplace distribution based on its maximum entropy characterization result. The critical values of the test statistics estimated by Monte Carlo simulations are tabulated for various window and sample sizes. The test statistics use an entropy estimator depending on the window size; so, the choice of the optimal window size is an important problem. The window sizes for yielding the maximum power of the tests are given for selected sample sizes. Power studies are performed to compare the proposed tests with goodness-of-fit tests based on the empirical distribution function. Simulation results report that entropy-based tests have consistently higher power than EDF tests against almost all alternatives considered.     

A Note on the Moments and Computer Generation of the Shifted Gompertz Distribution

In this paper we give a class of row-column designs with the property that the i-th row and the j-th column have precisely r treatments in common. A conjecture that such designs are quasi-factorial is disproved by showing that the designs given in this paper are not quasi-factorial. It is also shown that the designs given here are nearly optimal.     

The Hazard-Product method of generalization: Application to the gompertz and exponentiated Half-Normal distributions

As new data sources arrive, novel methods of defining undiscovered distributions are increasingly useful. In this presentation, the Hazard-Product method of generalizing survival functions is introduced. Some limitations and considerations are discussed, and a new extensions of the Gompertz and Half-Normal models are proposed. Finally, basic moment and estimation properties of the models are given, and two real data sets are analyzed.     

中国普通高等教育发展及其成因的灰色关联度分析

一、我国普通高等教育发展的现状分析20世纪90年代以来,我国普通高等教育的发展规模取得了较大的成绩(见表1)。以我国普通高校在校生数为例,由1990年的206.3万人增加到2002年的903.4万人,13年来绝对增长697.1万人,相对增长338%。表1我国普通高等教育发展相关数据表年份普通高校     

Covariate effect on the life expectancy and percentile residual life functions under the proportional hazards and the accelerated life models

The present paper is concerned with statistical models for the dependence of survival time or time to occurrence of an event, such as time to tumor, on a vector X of covariates or prognostic variables such as age, sex, blood pressure, length of exposure to a toxic material, etc., measured on a group of individuals in biomedical investigations. It is assumed that the covariates influence the distribution of time to tumor only through a linear predictor μ =β^′X.

The object of our paper is to investigate the effect due to the covariates on the Life Expectancy and the Percentile Residual Life (PRL) function of a family of organisms under the proportional hazards and the accelerated life models. The key result is that the families of survival distributions under these models have the 'setting the clock back to zero' property if the family of baseline survival distributions does. This property is a generalization of the lack of memory property of the exponential distribution. Simple examples of the members of this family are the linear hazard exponential, Pareto and Gompertz life distributions.

As a simple application of the main results obtained in the present paper, we have considered a stochastic survival model recently proposed by Chiang and Conforti (1989) for the time-to-tumor distribution in the context of a large-scale serial sacrifice experiment by the National Center of Toxicological Research (NCTR). This involves some mice that were fed 2-AAF from infancy and those that developed bladder and/or liver neoplasms, see Farmer et al (1980). It is shown that their stochastic model for tumor incidence intensity at time t leads to a family of survival models that has the setting the clock back to zero property. The survival functions and the effect of the vector X of covariates on the PRL and the tumor-free life expectancies are evaluated for the proportional hazards and accelerated life models.     

A maximum likelihood estimator for left-truncated lifetimes based on probabilistic prior information about time of occurrence

In forestry, many processes of interest are binary and they can be modeled using lifetime analysis. However, available data are often incomplete, being interval- and right-censored as well as left-truncated, which may lead to biased parameter estimates. While censoring can be easily considered in lifetime analysis, left truncation is more complicated when individual age at selection is unknown. In this study, we designed and tested a maximum likelihood estimator that deals with left truncation by taking advantage of prior knowledge about the time when the individuals enter the experiment. Whenever a model is available for predicting the time of selection, the distribution of the delayed entries can be obtained using Bayes' theorem. It is then possible to marginalize the likelihood function over the distribution of the delayed entries in the experiment to assess the joint distribution of time of selection and time to event. This estimator was tested with continuous and discrete Gompertz-distributed lifetimes. It was then compared with two other estimators: a standard one in which left truncation was not considered and a second estimator that implemented an analytical correction. Our new estimator yielded unbiased parameter estimates with empirical coverage of confidence intervals close to their nominal value. The standard estimator leaded to an overestimation of the long-term probability of survival.     

On the likelihood estimation of the parameters of Gompertz distribution based on complete and progressively Type-II censored samples

In this paper, by considering a progressively Type-II censored sample from the two-parameter Gompertz distribution, a necessary and sufficient condition is established for the existence and uniqueness of the maximum-likelihood estimates of the shape and scale parameters. The results for the special cases of complete and ordinary Type-II right censored samples are then deduced. Several numerical examples from the literature are presented for the purpose of illustrating the established results.     

Number of occurrences in two-state Markov chains,with an application in linguistics

Let N_n be the number of occurrences in n trials of an event governed by a two-state Markov chain (of first order or second order). We obtain the distribution of N_n and apply it to a problem involving literary text.     

大学生数学成绩影响因素的实证分析

伴随着近几年高校的扩大招生,部分大学生的数学成绩显著下降。用统计学软件SPSS 13.0对哈尔滨工程大学部分学生的高等数学成绩及其相关因素进行统计分析,考察学生的高考数学成绩、性别、生源所在地等因素对其大学数学成绩的影响。在给出了一些切实可行的对策和建议的同时,指出培养大学生学习的主动性和研究探索精神,已经成为当今高校教师和教育工作者培养高素质人才和提高教学水平的关键。     

A comparison of alternative rate estimators in some frequently used growth models

This paper deals with the linear, exponential and Gompertz models and compares the bias and variance of a number of estimators of the growth-rate parameters of these models. Some of these estimators have been commonly recommended in the literature and others are most frequently used in empirical practice. The present analysis points to the strengths and weaknesses of the estimators in their usage.     

Consistent Estimation of the Structural Distribution Function

Motivated by problems in linguistics we consider a multinomial random vector for which the number of cells N is not much smaller than the sum of the cell frequencies, i.e. the sample size n . The distribution function of the uniform distribution on the set of all cell probabilities multiplied by N is called the structural distribution function of the cell probabilities. Conditions are given that guarantee that the structural distribution function can be estimated consistently as n increases indefinitely although n / N does not. The natural estimator is inconsistent and we prove consistency of essentially two alternative estimators.     

Gompertz model with time-dependent covariate in the presence of interval-, right- and left-censored data

In this paper, the Gompertz model is extended to incorporate time-dependent covariates in the presence of interval-, right-, left-censored and uncensored data. Then, its performance at different sample sizes, study periods and attendance probabilities are studied. Following that, the model is compared to a fixed covariate model. Finally, two confidence interval estimation methods, Wald and likelihood ratio (LR), are explored and conclusions are drawn based on the results of the coverage probability study. The results indicate that bias, standard error and root mean square error values of the parameter estimates decrease with the increase in study period, attendance probability and sample size. Also, LR was found to work slightly better than the Wald for parameters of the model.     

Origins of linguistic zonation in the Australian Alps. part 1 - Huygens' principle

The hitherto poorly recorded boundaries of extinct traditional south-east-Australian Aboriginal languages can now be redetermined with greatly improved precision using an entropy-maximizing phonetic-signature calculated from existing data sources, including old word-lists and census forms, that have, until now, largely been considered informationally worthless. Having thus determined traditional Aboriginal language zones to a previously unimaginable degree of geographical precision, it is argued that these boundaries should not be viewed merely as a static 'snapshot' but, instead, as the end-product of a knowable dynamic process (Gillieron wave propagation) governed by well-known physical rules (such as Huygens' principle and Snell's Law) and operating over 'deep' time-scales more familiar to the archaeologist than the linguist. Although this initial study is limited to south-eastern Australia, the new methodology provides the first real hope of obtaining a detailed understanding of language dispersal throughout the entire continent over the past 60,000 years.     

统计虚假成因及治理对策研究

《统计法》已实施20余年,但统计数据虚假现象仍然十分严重。文章从统计体制、统计方法、执法缺陷等方面探析了统计数据虚假成因及治理对策。同时,现行《统计法》亟需修改完善。     

Statistical Inferences for the Lifetime Performance Index of the Products with the Gompertz Distribution under Censored Samples

Manufacturers often apply process capability indices in the quality control. This study constructs statistical analysis methods of assessing the lifetime performance index of Gompertz products under progressively type II right censored samples. The maximum likelihood estimator of the index is inferred by data transformation and then utilized to develop a hypothesis testing procedure and a confidence interval to assess product performance. We also give one example and some Monte Carlo simulations to assess the behavior of the testing procedure and confidence interval. The results show that our proposed method can effectively evaluate whether the lifetime of products meet the requirement.     

Bayesian inference and prediction analysis of the power law process based on a natural conjugate prior

Under a natural conjugate prior with four hyperparameters, the importance sampling (IS) technique is applied to the Bayesian analysis of the power law process (PLP). Samples of the parameters of the PLP are obtained from IS. Based on these samples, not only the posterior analysis of parameters and some parameter functions in the PLP are performed conveniently, but also single-sample and two-sample prediction procedures are constructed easily. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the posterior mean of the parameter functions in the PLP is studied with respect to the hyperparameters of the natural conjugate prior and it can guide the selections of the hyperparameters directly. Coupled this sensitivity with the relations between the prior moments and the hyperparameters in the natural conjugate prior, it is possible to give directions about the selections of the prior moments to a certain degree. After some numerical experiments illustrate the rationality and feasibility of the proposed methods, an engineering example demonstrates its application.     

Estimation of the frequency in cyclical long-memory series

Time series with cyclical long memory are characterized by a spectral pole at some frequency ω between 0 and π such that the series has a persistent cycle of period 2π/ω, implying a quasi-periodic behaviour that slightly evolves with time. Accurate estimation of ω is needed for a precise determination of the characteristic of the series (e.g. for business cycle determination or signal estimation). We propose a simple iterative algorithm of estimation of ω based on the maximizer of the periodogram evaluated at an increasingly finer grid of frequencies and compare its performance with more usual methods of estimation restricted to Fourier frequencies. We also apply this technique to the estimation of the frequency of the sunspot index and the business cycle of the differenced unemployment level of the USA.