温和繁荣条件下稳健货币政策的准则

中国宏观经济运行的非常规货币政策基本告一段落,需要一个新的货币政策取向。2011～2012年的货币供应量M2增长率显示了一个"名为稳健、实为从紧"的货币政策,其中2012年采取了"前紧后松"的特殊政策以实现"稳中求进"的政策目标。伴随物价上涨率下行的是经济增长率的下降,2011年和2012年前3个季度经济增长率的持续下降是一次"增长衰退",并非趋势线下降,第4季度的止跌回稳预示了经济将进入新的增长态势。基于货币信贷政策从"平稳合理增长"转向"平稳适度增长"和投资、消费、出口增长率略有回升的相伴相生,2013年将是一个温和繁荣的年份,维持1.5%的正利率应是稳健货币政策的准则。     

当前应对我国通货膨胀的思考

当前国内外环境仍然极为复杂,物价上涨比较快、通胀预期增强。造成这轮通货膨胀的主要原因,在于应对金融危机而采取强力的救市政策、流动性过剩、CPI体系、大宗商品价格等方面。抗通胀不能一味地紧缩货币,搞不好会打压经济增长,很可能出现＂通胀没有管住,经济却出现下滑＂的滞胀危险。治理当前通货膨胀的思路,应结合当前国家宏观政策,从控制信贷、人民币升值、融资、税收、改善收入分配等方面着手。     

中国宏观经济2011年形势走向分析

中国经济结构调整的外部环境正在发生变化,因此必须寄希望于通过扩大人均收入,提高消费能力,使中国市场逐步走向世界的前列。但在目前消费和出口双重疲软的情况下,中国经济仍然需要靠投资拉动增长。2011年下半年经济下行风险不是很大,物价上涨是经济增长最主要障碍,预计货币政策偏紧。     

中国货币市场的未来发展之路

近年来,我国货币市场的发展速度明显加快,初步形成了一个多元化的货币市场体系。但是,从市场的构成体系、组织结构、市场条件、市场影响及功能发挥来看,货币市场的内在调节机制及相关功能仍然无法得到充分发挥,货币市场在央行货币政策与资本市场间的桥梁作用依然较弱。上海国际金融中心首先应该成为人民币金融产品的定价中心,因此,上海货币市场的建设在国际金融中心建设中意义重大。商业银行是货币市场最重要的参与主体,对货币市场基础利率的形成具有决定性作用,货币市场的基础利率是其他金融资产定价的基础。通过货币市场的运作,商业银行为其他金融市场提供大量的流动性。商业银行要积极扩大参与货币市场的力度,为上海同业拆放利率成为我国市场利率的基础而努力。     

下一次全球性危机——货币危机

2009年初,当世界各国都在极力摆脱经济危机时,东欧和拉美各国又爆发了货币危机,并且波及西欧各国,随时都可能出现一场全球性的货币危机,中国是否会爆发货币危机,中国应该如何应对货币危机成了人们最关注的话题.本文首先介绍了货币的供给与需求、货币在金融市场中的作用,然后介绍了货币危机的理论,分析了东欧各国货币危机的成因,最后分析了中国爆发货币危机的可能性并对中国未来的货币政策提出了建议.     

我国经济市场化过程中货币政策的选择

货币政策在经济增长中起着极其重要的作用。但是,货币政策并不能直接促进经济增长,它要通过金融中介将货币转化为资本,或者说要通过资本积累职能和信用中介职能,才能对经济增长起促进作用。而信用中介职能既有正面功效,也有负面功效,因此,货币政策     

对话《货币战争》作者宋鸿兵 当“货币战争”遭遇“隆中对”

目前世界上没有一个统一的、准确的、大家公认的、合理的货币估值体系,所谓的高估或低估不能只看中国采购原材料或者是制成产品的价格,货币价值不仅与消费物价挂钩,还与资产挂钩。而资产价格在中国,我觉得已经远远高于西方国家了,无论是股市还是房地产市场。     

2016“梳理国际金融框架”国际研讨会纪要

现有国际货币体制的不稳定性主要体现在现代版的“特里芬难题”,即经济多极化和美元储备单极化之间的矛盾.国际社会对储备资产的需求无法单由美国的金融体系来提供.现行国际货币体系的问题表现在以国家为主体的利益诉求和公共产品缺乏的矛盾.美元周期性的贬值,导致全球资产的波动,资本流动的波动.尤其是目前,发达国家过度使用货币政策,导致了资产的泡沫.     

通货膨胀卷土重来？

处于高增长状态的中国经济也许有太多的问题需要解答,但通货膨胀已成为一个无法回避的重要问题。无论我们把物价上涨的原因看成是中国经济开始新一轮增长周期的特征,还是把它归结为新的高增长率投资周期出现的自然现象,抑或把它描绘成是扩张性信贷政策的必然结果,一切经济现象和物价数据清晰地告诉我们:通货膨胀确实来了。     

新形势下我国货币政策的战略取向

当前，我国面临着更加复杂的国内国际经济形势。中央银行的货币政策作为重要的宏观经济政策，其政策效果如何至关重要，一般来说，货币政策受宏观经济状况、货币政策传导相关主体、货币供给的内生性、货币政策的传导机制等诸多因素的影响。根据影响货币政策因素的变化情况，笔者认为，复杂的国内国际形势要求我国应选择灵活的货币政策，积极预防通货膨胀成为当前货币政策目标选择的重中之重。     

COULD STABLE MONEY HAVE AVERTED THE GREAT CONTRACTION?

We test the hypothesis that the Great Contraction would have been attenuated had the Federal Reserve not allowed the money stock to decline. We simulate a model that estimates separate relations for output and the price level and assumes that output and price dynamics are not especially sensitive to policy changes. The simulations include a strong and a weak form of Friedman's constant money growth rule. The results support the hypothesis that the Great Contraction would have been mitigated and shortened had the Federal Reserve followed a constant money growth rule.     

Roles of Stock Price and Exchange Rate in Slovakia's Money Demand Function and Policy Implications

The demand for real M1 in Slovakia is positively influenced by real output and the stock price and negatively associated with the deposit rate, depreciation of the koruna, the euro interest rate, and the expected inflation rate. Considering the goods and the money market simultaneously, these results suggest that a higher stock price may or may not cause real output to rise and that a depreciation of the koruna or a higher euro interest rate would help raise Slovakia's real output. The coefficients of the deposit rate and the stock price in real M2 demand are insignificant at the 10% level. The likelihood ratio test in the extended Box–Cox model shows that the double-log form cannot be rejected at the 5% level while the linear form can be rejected at the 5% level. The CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests show that the money demand function was relatively stable.      

INFORMATIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF MONEY, INTEREST RATE, and PRICE RULES

The information available to private agents determines the effectiveness of various types of monetary policy. In an economy in which private agents have differential information sets, the ranking of three classes of monetary policy rules critically depends on the specification of agents' information sets. A price rule, for example, minimizes the variance of output around its full information level when agents observe both the interest rate and money stock. More generally, if all three monetary policy variables (the money stock, the price level and the interest rate) are contemporaneously observed, the policy ranking is indeterminate.     

THE MAKING OF MONETARY POLICY: DESCRIPTION AND ANALYSIS*

At the present time Federal Reserve policy-making may be viewed as having a two-part structure. First, based on a four to eight quarter economic forecast, the Fed selects a target rate of money growth. Second, based on a short-term money market forecast, the Fed selects a Federal funds rate range thought to be consistent with the money growth target. The procedure followed in selecting the money growth target is “state-of-the-art” but the policy implementation based on controlling the Federal funds rate has permitted an undesirable pro-cyclical behavior of the money stock.     

UNCERTAIN EFFECTS OF MONEY AND THE LINK BETWEEN THE INFLATION RATE AND INFLATION UNCERTAINTY

In the postwar period high rates of inflation are associated with high levels of inflation uncertainty. In this paper I argue that the inflation rate and inflation uncertainty are linked by forecasters' uncertainty about the impact of money growth on the price level, and I present evidence indicating that this has been the case. As long as the impact of money growth on the price level remains unpredictable, then even predictable money growth will cause inflation uncertainty with its accompanying adverse effects on employment and output.     

STICKY PRICE AND STICKY INFORMATION PRICE‐SETTING MODELS: WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE?

Using a partial equilibrium framework, Mankiw and Reis show that a sticky information model can generate a lagged and gradual inflation response after a monetary policy shock, whereas a sticky price model cannot. Our study demonstrates that the finding is sensitive to their model's parameterization. To determine a plausible parameterization, we specify a general equilibrium model with sticky information. In that model, we find that inflation peaks only one period after a monetary disturbance. A sensitivity analysis of our results reveals that the inflation peak is delayed by including real rigidities when the monetary policy instrument is money growth, whereas inflation peaks immediately when the policy instrument is the nominal interest rate. ( JEL E31, E32, E52)     

MONETARY EXPERIMENTS IN A NEOCLASSICAL MODEL

A Neoclassical Monetary Growth Model is formulated in which income is taken to be exogenous. A rise in the expected rate of inflation raises the price level but has an effect of indeterminate sign on the rate of interest. An increase in the quantity of money causes a more-than-proportional increase in the price level so that velocity rises. Therefore money is not neutral in the short run.     

A DIFFICULTY WITH MONETARIST MODELS OF HYPERINFLATION

The Cagan, Barro, and Allais analyses of hyperinflation have been shown to be questionable. Their impressive empirical results are a direct result of the method used to solve their models. Their solution does not depend on the input forcing function (the rate of change of the money stock) of their differential equation systems but expresses one dependent variable, real money balances, as a function of another dependent variable, the rate of change of prices. As a result, price changes which are unrelated to changes in the money stock acting through the dynamic structure of the model will incorrectly yield a good fit of the data.     

THE OPTIMAL MONETARY RESPONSE TO TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS

This paper develops a model in which both technology and monetary shocks are important sources of variation in aggregate output and employment. The model rationalizes a policy under which money responds actively to technology shocks. The welfare cost of adopting the constant money growth rule advocated by Milton Friedman rather than the optimal activist policy is small, however. (JEL E52, E32)     

MONEY,OUTPUT, AND INFLATION IN THE LONGER TERM: MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES, 1880–2001

We study how fluctuations in money growth correlate with fluctuations in real output growth and inflation. Using band‐pass filters, we extract cycles from each time series that last 2–8 (business cycles) and 8–40 (longer‐term cycles) years. We employ annual data, 1880–2001 without gaps, for 11 industrial countries. Fluctuations in money growth do not play a systematic role at business cycle frequencies. However, money growth leads or affects contemporaneously inflation, but not real output growth, in the longer run. Also, formal break tests indicate no structural changes for the longer‐term money growth and inflation relationship, despite changes in policy regimes.(JEL E3)