上海市人户分离状况的空间特征分析——基于“六普”数据

＂六普＂数据显示,近几年上海市人户分离状况呈现出新的空间特征,主要表现在：人户分离人口的规模和迁移率在空间分布上呈现出严重的不均衡;大部分区县人户分离人口的来源地及迁居目的地集中化程度高,具有＂近邻优先＂的特点;逐步形成由中心城区县流向近郊区区县和中心城区县之间相互流动的两大迁移圈;中心城核心区、边缘区、近郊区、远郊区等四大区域之间的人户分离人口流动呈现出三大迁居主流。本文在总结这些空间特征的同时,就如何解决上海市人户分离问题提出了几点建议,以期上海市内户籍人口的迁移能科学健康有序进行。     

新疆民族人口空间分布的测量与分析--基于＂五普＂、“六普”数据

本文利用第五次人口普查和第六次人口普查数据,以新疆两个主要民族——维吾尔族和汉族人口为例,分析了民族口人空间分布的全局和局部特征及其变化趋势。研究结果发现,新疆的维吾尔族和汉族人口都有较强的空间内聚性;两个民族人口集中的地区总体呈现互补状态,各有人口密集地区;比邻聚居、成片联结的区位形态都较明显。维吾尔族人口聚居的集中程度高于汉族人口。汉族人口的聚集区域面积相对小而分散。了解和认识民族人口的空间分布特征,对于推动建立各民族相互嵌,入的社会结构和社区环境,促进各民族的交往交流交融,具有重要意义。     

A likelihood ratio test for equality of deviations from randomness

The use of the sample variance-to-mean ratio as a measure of deviation from randomness in spatial pattern is reviewed. The likelihood ratio method of constructing a statistical test for the equality of several population variance-to-mean ratios is described, and details are provided for the special case where counts are modelled as arising from a negative binomial distribution. This test is illustrated by application to example data sets in ecology. Likelihood ratio tests represent a general methodology whereby relationships among several indices of aggregation can be systematically investigated, provided one is able to specify a suitable parametric form for the underlying distributions.     

中国人口老龄化区域差异与收敛性研究

本文通过对中国人口老龄化空间分布特征的分析，得出各地区人口老龄化程度普遍加深且存在空间聚集性，呈现东部沿海－中部－西部内陆的扩张规律，形成了沿长江流域严重老龄化聚集地带。此外，全局和局部 Moran 指数显示我国人口老龄化存在显著的全局和局部空间正相关关系。于是考虑空间相关性，借鉴经济增长收敛性的研究方法，建立空间计量模型，发现我国地区间人口老龄化存在绝对β收敛，且收敛速度较快。     

广州人口老龄化与养老机构发展分析

1982—2010年,广州人口老龄化趋势持续,人口老龄化程度较轻。老龄化程度和老年人口的地区分布差异悬殊,据此将广州划分为三个老龄化类型区。广州养老机构数量、规模和结构已有较大发展．未来应继续提高收养服务能力,调节机构养老资源区域配置的不平衡。     

基于行业门类人口的环渤海湾地区区域结构分析

区域经济结构和空间结构是区域结构的两个重要方面。人口是区域特别是经济区域的基本特征之一。各行业门类人口的就业结构和空间分布则同时反映了区域的经济结构和空间结构特征。我们对环渤海湾地区所有的449个县、市、区的就业人口结构和空间分布特征进行主成分分析和聚类分析,探讨相应都市区的结构特征以及都市区的空间组合特征等,进而确定了环渤海湾地区的内部结构。从分析结果来看,环渤海湾地区内部结构相对松散,不是一个紧凑的经济实体单元。作为一个整体,环渤海湾地区远远未达到都市连绵区的水平,虽然其京津地区以及辽中地区初显其连绵区特征。     

Accounting for migration in cohort-component projections of state and local populations

Migration is the most difficult component of state and local population growth to forecast accurately because it is more volatile than either births or deaths, and subject to much larger fluctuations within a short period of time. In addition, migration rates can be based on several different measures of migration and the base population. The choice of the appropriate base population has received little attention from demographic researchers, but can have a tremendous impact on population projections. In this article, I develop three different models for projecting migration, each using a different denominator for migration rates. Population projections for ten states are made, using identical data and cohort component techniques, except for the different formulations of migration rates. Differences among the three sets of projections are noted, and conclusions are drawn regarding their usefulness as forecasts of population growth.     

Inconstancy of Taylor'sb: Simulated sampling with different quadrat sizes and spatial distributions

Summary Taylor's power law,s ² =am ^b , provides a precise summary of the relationship between sample variance (s ² ) and sample mean (m) for many organisms. The coefficientb has been interpreted as an index of aggregation, with a characteristic value for a given species in a particular environment, and has been thought to be independent of the sample unit. Simulation studies were conducted that demonstrate that the value ofb may vary with the size of the sample unit in quadrat sampling, and this relationship, in turn, depends on the underlying spatial distribution of the population. For example, simulated populations with hierarchical aggregation on a large scale produced values ofb that increased with the size of the sample unit. In contrast, for a simulated population with randomly distributed clusters of individuals, the value ofb eventually decreased with increasing quadrat size, as sample counts became more uniform. A single value ofTaylor'sb, determined with a particular sample unit, provides neither a fixed index of aggregation nor a complete picture of a species' spatial distribution. Rather, it describes a consistent relationship between sample variance and sample mean over a range of densities, on a spatial scale related to the size of the sample unit. This relationship may reflect, but not uniquely define, density-dependent population and behavioral processes governing the spatial distribution of the organism. Interpretation ofTaylor'sb for a particular organism should be qualified by reference to the sample unit, and comparisons should not be made between cases in which different sample units were used. Whenever possible, a range of sample units should be used to provide information about the pattern of distribution of a population on various spatial scales.     

Effect of aggregation on the reproductive rate of populations

Summary The effect of spatial distribution on the reproductive rate of a population was examined by applying an approximate equation to several data based on the entomological literature. This study suggests that aggregation generally reduces the equilibrium level of the population density if the population density is not very high.     

Thailand’s urban population reconsidered

In lieu of any official definition of “urban population” in Thailand, researchers and policy makers have generally used a simple urban-rural dichotomy, relying upon the administratively designated municipal areas as urban and the remainder of the kingdom as rural. For administrative purposes, however, a more refined set of residence categories is available: the “urban” segment is subdivided into three categories of municipal areas; within the “rural” group, units of population concentration classified as sanitary districts are distinguished from the remainder of the rural population. Data from a 1970 census sample tape have been used to analyze a number of socioeconomic characteristics, as well as migration and fertility, for each of these five residence categories separately in an attempt to determine if the formerly used rural-urban dichotomy is valid. For each of the characteristics and for migration and fertility, a clear urban-rural continuum emerges, with the sanitary districts generally resembling the smaller urban places more than they do the rural areas under which they are usually subsumed. The evaluation thus suggests the importance to research and policy either of using an urban-rural continuum or of grouping sanitary districts with municipal areas when a dichotomy must be used. Doing so should facilitate evaluation of the interrelations between urbanization and demographic and development factors.     

Numerical Simulation of Population Distribution in China

A model for simulating population distribution (MSPD) of China is developed based on the grid generation method and the Control of MapObjects of geographical information system. Elevation, net primary productivity, land use and land cover, city sizes and their spatial distribution, and spatial distribution of transport infrastructures are taken into full account in the MSPD. The result from the MSPD shows that in 2000, 90.8% of the total population of China distributed on the southeastern side of the Heihe-Tengchong line. The ratio of population on the northwestern side to total population of China has been increasing since 1935. The yearly growth rate was 0.8% from 1935 to 1990 and 6.1% from 1990 to 2000. One important advantage of the MSPD is that when scenarios of land cover, spatial distributions of transport infrastructures and cities are available, scenarios of spatial population distribution can be developed on the basis of total population forecast.     

迁移与滞留：广东省人口老化的区域特征研究

论文描述了广东省人口老化的基本过程,分别从经济区、大城市、农村、外来人口聚集区与人口大规模外流区等多个层面上分析了人口老龄化的区域特征。指出了区域发展不平衡导致的青年人的流动和老年人口滞留在经济相对滞后的区域是影响人口老化区域差异的重要因素。     

Population and pavement: population growth and land development in Israel

This research examines land use change in Israel––an intriguing but understudied setting with regard to population–environment dynamics. While Israel is fairly unique with regard to its combined high levels of economic prosperity and high population growth, this case study has relevance for developed countries and regions (like the south and southwest regions of the USA) which must balance population growth and urban development with open space conservation for ecosystem services and biological diversity. The population–land development relationship is investigated during the period from 1961 to 1995 at three spatial scales: national, regional (six districts), and local (40 localities). There is a positive correlation between population growth and land development rates at the national scale, and while remaining positive, the strength of the relationship varies greatly at regional and local scales. The variation in population–land use dynamics across scales is used to garner insight as to the importance of geography, policy and historical settlement patterns.     

The peculiar pattern of mortality of Jews in Moscow, 1993-95

Russian Jews, particularly men, have a large mortality advantage compared with the general Russian population. We consider possible explanations for this advantage using data on 445,000 deaths in Moscow, 1993-95. Log-linear analysis of the distribution of deaths by sex, age, ethnic group, and cause of death reveals a relatively high concentration of endogenous causes and a relatively low concentration of exogenous and behaviourally induced causes among Jews. There is also a significant concentration of deaths from breast cancer among Jewish women. Mortality estimates using the 1994 micro-census population as the denominator reveal an 11-year Russian-Jewish gap in the life expectancy of males at age 20, but only a 2-year life-expectancy gap for women. Only 40 per cent of the Russian-Jewish difference for men, but the entire difference for women, can be eliminated by adjustment for educational differences between the two ethnic groups. Similarities with other Jewish populations and possible explanations are discussed.     

Lifetime risk of pregnancy-related death among Zambian women: district-level estimates from the 2010 census

The aim of this study was to examine district differentials in the lifetime risk of pregnancy-related death among females aged 15–49 in Zambia. We used data on household deaths collected in the 2010 census to estimate the lifetime risk of pregnancy-related death among females in Zambia. Using all-cause age-specific death rates, we generated female life tables for 74 districts and estimated person-years of exposure to all-cause mortality at each age. We then applied age-specific pregnancy-related mortality rates to the person-years of exposure to obtain estimates of adult lifetime risk that took account of competing causes of death. We used the ArcGIS software to analyse clustering and the spatial distribution of risk. A female aged 15 in Zambia had a 3.7 % chance of dying a pregnancy-related death before the age of 50. At district level, the lifetime risk ranged from 1.7 to 7.7 %. The Global Moran’s I was 0.452 (z-score 5.8, p value <0.01), indicating clustering of districts with similar risk levels of pregnancy-related mortality. Clustering of high-risk districts was found in Western province while clustering of low risk districts was found in Lusaka and Muchinga provinces. The level of adult lifetime risk was more positively associated with pregnancy-related mortality than with fertility. Females in Zambia have a high lifetime risk of pregnancy-related death overall but this risk varies greatly across the different districts of the country. The observed diversity is larger than when merely studying differences between provinces and is only weakly linked to differences in fertility levels. The identification of districts with varying levels of risk should enable evidence-based and focused delivery of maternal health services in districts where risk of death from maternal causes is greatest.     

Problems and solutions in forecasting geographical populations

This paper asks the question: how does the multistate population model need to be adjusted to provide forecasts of geographical populations? Following an exposition of the standard model, ossible solutions to the problems posed by excessive number of parameters are discussed. ecomposition, aggregation and parameterization are described, drawing on some new results. ssues in the temporal forecasting of model components are outlined and the alternative approach of using a spatial interaction model is considered. The paper concludes by arguing that the design of forecasting models is a powerful learning device for both designers and users.     

Schools,Neighborhoods and Selection: Outcomes Across Metropolitan Los Angeles

What is the relationship between school segregation and neighborhood segregation across school districts in Los Angeles County, and are school district outcomes on reading and mathematics scores related to levels of school segregation across these districts? We compute segregation scores using US tract level data for 2000 and use reading and mathematics scores from California State tests. Data from the Los Angeles family and neighborhood survey are used to track individual residential changes and differences in the associated Woodcock Johnson scores. We show that there is a close link between levels of school segregation and neighborhood segregation and that many suburban school districts are relatively integrated across both neighborhoods and schools. When we examine average school district outcomes on reading and mathematics scores we do not find any relationship with levels of segregation. At the same time there is clear evidence of spatial sorting with poorer and lower scoring children moving into school districts (or zones with poorer achieving schools). The multi-level models of segregation and achievement show that the variance in achievement levels across districts is significantly greater than across schools within districts.     

Changing Residence: Comparative Perspectives on its Relationship to Age,Sex, and Marital Status

Change of usual dwelling unit (house, flat, etc.) during a fixed period of time is the common denominator to measuring the amount of spatial mobility within different countries. Around 1980 or 1981, the percentage of population who moved from one dwelling unit to another in one year was over 19 per cent in New Zealand, 17–18 per cent in the United States, Canada, and Australia, 9–10 per cent in Great Britain, Sweden, Japan and France, 7–8 per cent in the Netherlands and Belgium, and 6 per cent in Ireland. Evaluation of ‘age schedules’ of local and non-local movement reveals especially high mobility among U.S. children, and a narrowing of mobility differences for older people between countries, particularly over local distances. Life-table techniques help to quantify the amount of mobility associated with different marital statuses, and bring into focus some of the sequelae of these statuses for men and women in different countries.     

Study of Main Function District Population Carrying Capacity

The population carrying capacity of restricted district,key development district,optimized district appear gradient decrease. While differentiation of satisfaction regarding population capacity appears in optimizing district, key development districts or restricted districts, the unbalanced distribution of population between districts or within districts emerges. Using multi-pronged measures to reasonably control population size and guide the movement of population to the suburbs, this is a realistic policy direction for Beijing,Shanghai Guangzhou and Shenzhen First-tier cities. Other optimizing districts and key development districts should raise their population carrying capacity’s short board. Restricted district should increase their financial input and improve their Improve their level of public service.     

中国城市流动人口影响因素的定量研究

利用公安部 1996年流动人口统计数据和国家统计局 1996年国民经济和社会发展统计数据 ,对中国城市流动人口的影响因素进行研究发现 :(1)城市流动人口规模与市区从业人口、市区个体劳动者人数、市区国内生产总值、市区工业总产值、市区利税总额、市区固定资产投资总额、市区社会消费品零售总额、市区实际利用外资金额和市区职工年平均工资相关显著 ;与市区人口、市区非农业人口、市区第二产业从业人员比重、市区第三产业从业人员比重、市区百元资金实现利税和市区客运总量相关不显著 ;与地区人口呈负相关。 (2 )流动人口超过 5 0万以上的城市 ,其流动人口规模与市区的社会经济因素回归效果较好 ,回归方程可以用于预测