Apostles and Zionists: The influence of religion on demographic change in rural Zimbabwe

Religion has acted as a brake on demographic transition in a number of historical and contemporary populations. In a study in two rural areas of Zimbabwe, we found substantial differences in recent demographic trends between Mission and Independent or `Spirit-type' churches. Birth rates are higher in some Spirit-type churches and, until recently, infant mortality was also higher. Recent increases in mortality were seen within Mission churches but not in Spirit-type churches. Missiological and ethnographic data indicate that differences in religious teaching on healthcare-seeking and sexual behaviour and differences in church regulation could explain this contrast in demographic patterns. More restrictive norms on alcohol consumption and extra-marital relationships in Spirit-type churches may limit the spread of HIV and thereby reduce its impact on mortality. These contrasting trends will influence the future religious and demographic profile of rural populations in Zimbabwe.     

Some aspects of socio-economic determinants of mortality in tropical Africa

Measurements of mortality levels and trends continue to be inadequate in Africa, largely because of the lack of reliable and adequate information on deaths. A series of estimates depicting mortality levels and trends has been prepared by demographers, different kinds of data and employing different estimation procedures, but knowledge of the "true" structure of mortality in tropical Africa is virtually nonexistent. Because of these problems only a "bird's eye view" of the prevailing situation in tropical Africa is presented. The discussion -- directed to mortality by sex and age, by residence, and by cause -- is based on secondary and fragmentary data. Socioeconomic and cultural determinants of mortality are also examined. Available information on male and female mortality indicates that the death rates for males are higher than they are for females. Early childhood mortality (1-4 years) in tropical Africa is relatively high compared with the other age groups, including infants. Mortality differentials have been noted among geographical and administrative units and subdivisions of populations within the various countries of tropical Africa. Also, urban dwellers enjoy a higher expectation of life at birth than do rural dwellers. Communicable diseases are the main killers in tropical Africa. Persistent poverty and malnutrition, poor housing, unhealthy conditions in the growing cities, nonexistence of health facilities in the rural areas, rapid population expansion, and low levels of education are among the factors impeding progress in reducing mortality in tropical Africa. The need exists to express development goals in terms of the progressive reduction and eventual elimination of malnutrition, disease, illiteracy, squalor, and inequalities. Future trends in mortality in tropical Africa may depend more than they have in the recent past on economic and social development.     

Causes of Male Excess Mortality: Insights from Cloistered Populations

The degree to which biological factors contribute to the existence and the widening of mortality differences by sex remains unclear. To address this question, a mortality analysis for the years 1890 to 1995 was performed comparing mortality data on more than 11,000 Catholic nuns and monks in Bavarian communities living in very nearly identical behavioral and environmental conditions with life table data for the general German population. While the mortality differences between women and men in the general German population increased considerably after World War II, they remained almost constant among the members of Bavarian religious orders during the entire observation period, with slight advantages for nuns. Thus, the higher differences observable in the general population cannot be attributed to biological factors. The different trends in sex‐specific mortality between the general and the cloistered populations are caused exclusively by men in the general population who were unable to follow the trend in mortality reduction of women, nuns, and especially monks. Under the special environmental conditions of nuns and monks, biological factors appear to confer a maximum survival advantage for women of no more than one year in remaining life expectancy at young adult ages.     

Negative Religious Rhetoric in the Lives of Black Cisgender Queer Emerging Adult Men: A Qualitative Analysis

Given the intersection of racial, religious, and sexual identities for Black queer populations, the current study examines sexuality-related religious rhetoric. Twenty Black cisgender queer men were recruited to participate in a qualitative interview. Using thematic analysis, the research team identified four themes: negative religious rhetoric, personal consequences of negative religious rhetoric, social consequences of negative religious rhetoric, and growth from negative religious rhetoric. Participants explained the pervasiveness of negative religious rhetoric within their churches and family structures. Men also conveyed how negative religious rhetoric frames societal ideologies around same-sex behavior, often condoning violence toward queer populations. Although men had negative experiences, participants articulated the importance of using oppression as a platform for growth. Black cisgender queer men are present within religious institutions; however, such negative religious rhetoric may negatively affect their mental and physical health. Researchers, clinicians, and clergy should consider the ways negative religious rhetoric marginalizes queer populations.     

Crossovers that link populations with the same vital rates

"In this paper, we consider crossovers of demographic density distributions from...populations that have the same fertility and mortality rates. We focus on observed populations and their associated stationary and stable models, and on proportional distributions of persons, births, deaths and reproductive values....Three different populations were selected to represent a range of demographic behavior. Those populations are Japan 1963, a low mortality, low fertility population; Togo 1961, a high mortality, high fertility population; and the United States 1919-1921, a population whose fertility and mortality are intermediate."     

Religious differentials in infant and child mortality in Holland, 1855–1912

At least three kinds of hypothesis may be invoked to interpret religious differentials in mortality. They are (i) hypotheses that refer to characteristics, (ii) those that refer to lifestyle, and (iii) those that refer to the social isolation of minorities. This paper tests all three kinds of hypothesis using data on urban child mortality from The Hague just before and during the demographic transition. A hazard analysis suggests that economic and demographic characteristics do not account for much of the variation by religion. An analysis of seasonal mortality suggests that some of the variation may be explained by differences in lifestyle. The third kind of hypothesis is presented here for the first time. We suggest that the social isolation of small religious groups lowered their exposure to certain kinds of infectious disease. We use a simulation study to show that this hypothesis could account for part of the variation.     

Religious differentials in infant and child mortality in Holland, 1855-1912

At least three kinds of hypothesis may be invoked to interpret religious differentials in mortality. They are (i) hypotheses that refer to characteristics, (ii) those that refer to lifestyle, and (iii) those that refer to the social isolation of minorities. This paper tests all three kinds of hypothesis using data on urban child mortality from the Hague just before and during the demographic transition. A hazard analysis suggests that economic and demographic characteristics do not account for much of the variation by religion. An analysis of seasonal mortality suggests that some of the variation may be explained by differences in lifestyle. The third kind of hypothesis is presented here for the first time. We suggest that the social isolation of small religious groups lowered their exposure to certain kinds of infectious disease. We use a simulation study to show that this hypothesis could account for part of the variation.     

Demographic Responses And Population Change

Most Western societies have gone through a process of population change during the past 100-150 years. One important aspect is the socalled demographic transition: the shift from high to low birth and death rates, and accelerated growth resulting from the lag between falling mortality and falling fertility, in national populations. Equally important has been the "rural-to-urban" transition, which involved the migration of millions of people from rural areas. It is hypothesized, following the suggestion of Davis (Theory of the Multi-Phasic Demographic Response), that the adjustment in reproductive behavior made by a community in response to a rising "strain," such as that resulting from higher natural increase, is likely to differ depending upon the ease with which the community can relieve the strain through out migration. Relationships among such characteristics of modernization as intensity of industrialization, speed of urbanization, structural changes in the agricultural system, and declining fertility are implied. Case studies of England and Sweden lend support to the hypothesis: more rapid urban-industrial development, larger-scale movement from rural areas, and a delayed decline in the rural birth rate distinguish the English transition.     

Modeling and Forecasting Mortality With Economic Growth: A Multipopulation Approach

Research on mortality modeling of multiple populations focuses mainly on extrapolating past mortality trends and summarizing these trends by one or more common latent factors. This article proposes a multipopulation stochastic mortality model that uses the explanatory power of economic growth. In particular, we extend the Li and Lee model (Li and Lee 2005) by including economic growth, represented by the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, to capture the common mortality trend for a group of populations with similar socioeconomic conditions. We find that our proposed model provides a better in-sample fit and an out-of-sample forecast performance. Moreover, it generates lower (higher) forecasted period life expectancy for countries with high (low) GDP per capita than the Li and Lee model.     

Estimating Mortality Differences in Developed Countries From Survey Information on Maternal and Paternal Orphanhood

In general, the use of indirect methods is limited to developing countries. Developed countries are usually assumed to have no need to apply such methods because detailed demographic data exist. However, the potentialities of demographic analysis with direct methods are limited to the characteristics of available macro data on births, deaths, and migration. For instance, in many Western countries, official population statistics do not permit the estimation of mortality by socioeconomic status (SES) or migration background, or for estimating the relationship between parity and mortality. In order to overcome these shortcomings, I modify and extend the so-called orphanhood method for indirect estimation of adult mortality from survey information on maternal and paternal survival to allow its application to populations of developed countries. The method is demonstrated and tested with data from two independent Italian cross-sectional surveys by estimating overall and SES-specific life expectancy. The empirical applications reveal that the proposed method can be used successfully for estimating levels and trends of mortality differences in developed countries and thus offers new prospects for the analysis of mortality.     

中国人口的迁移转变——基于迁移率的考察

经典人口转变理论侧重死亡和生育转变过程的测量、描述和解释,地理学家将迁移转变纳入人口转变框架,以完善人口转变理论。不过与死亡和生育转变研究不同,中国的迁移研究侧重基于对迁移流动人口规模和结构的考察分析,少有采用人口学意义上的迁移率指标的研究。文章利用2010—2015年历次中国综合社会调查的合并数据,通过人口学方法和泊松回归模型,计算和分析了1950—2015年中国人口迁移率趋势及社会经济差异。中国的迁移转变在宏观趋势上与中国的政治经济变迁高度一致。与死亡和生育转变相比,其波折性更强,说明更易受到经济社会政策变化的冲击。同时也观察到逢“0”和逢“5”年份的申报偏好。另外,迁移的社会经济差异明显。男性迁移率高于女性,但是两性差异在不断缩小;乡城迁移和未婚迁移大幅度增长;而越来越多受教育程度较高人群加入迁移,使得受教育程度越高的人群具有越高的迁移率。可以认为基于迁移率的考察揭示了中国迁移转变更具体生动的过程。     

Beyond Material Explanations: Family Solidarity and Mortality,a Small Area‐level Analysis

Social solidarity, being embedded in a network of binding social relationships, tends to extend human longevity. Yet while average incomes in the Western world, and with them, life expectancies, have risen dramatically, the second demographic transition has occasioned a breakdown in traditional family forms. This article considers whether these trends in family life may have slowed the rise in life expectancy. I present a cross‐sectional analysis of Israeli statistical areas (SAs), for which I construct indexes of Standard of Living (SOL), Traditional Family Structure (TFS), and Religiosity (R). I show that (1) increases in all three of these indexes are associated with lower levels of mortality, (2) male mortality is more sensitive to differences in SOL and TFS than is female mortality, and (3) net of differences in SOL and TFS, there is no difference in the mortality levels of Arab and Jewish populations.     

The contribution of HIV to fertility decline in rural Zimbabwe, 1985-2000

HIV-related sub-fertility has been reported for those populations in sub-Saharan Africa in which contraceptive use is low. We use data from a retrospective survey in rural Zimbabwe and multivariate logistic regression models to show that recent birth rates and current pregnancy rates are also lower among HIV-positive women than among HIV-negative women in those African populations where contraceptive use is high. The fertility reduction is smaller than where contraceptive use is low because age at first sexual intercourse is later and birth rates at older ages are already low. Nevertheless, total fertility is approximately 8.5 per cent lower and HIV-associated sub-fertility may account for as much as one-quarter of fertility decline in Zimbabwe since the late 1980s. Mechanisms for HIV-associated sub-fertility in rural Zimbabwe include more frequent widowhood and divorce, reduced coital frequency, increased amenorrhoea, and possibly, pelvic inflammatory disease. Miscarriage appears to be a less important factor than elsewhere possibly because syphilis is rare.     

The demographic evolution of human populations: The role of selection and environmental factors

Selection (genetic and cultural) and environmental variation are the principal mechanisms determining patterns of demographic change in human populations. Conditions exist under which the nature and intensity of these forces can be inferred from temporal trends in the demographic variables. These conditions, which can be expressed in terms of relations between the Malthusian parameter and population entropy, provide a means for evaluating the effect of selective and nonselective factors on demographic trends in human populations. The distinction between the roles of selection and environmental factors is illustrated by a study of the demographic transition in Sweden (1778-1965). This study shows that demographic changes during the pre- and posttransitional phases are determined mainly by environmental factors, whereas the changes during the transitional phase are mainly due to cultural selection. This analysis provides, for all three phases of the demographic transition, quantitative measures of the intensity of the forces (selective and nonselective) acting on both mortality and fecundity distributions.     

Rural/urban differentials in demographic processes: The Central Asian states

While the populations of the Central Asian successor states are extremely heterogeneous on many indicators, the issue of rural or urban residence is consistently important in terms of differentials in population growth, socio-economic status and public health. In this paper I focus on rural population trends in Kazakhstan, Kyrghyzstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. I explore the relatively disadvantaged position of rural inhabitants as well as regional variations within the rural population. The differentials in fertility and mortality rates and the large projected population increases indicate that future policy interventions and data collection efforts should incorporate a specific focus on rural areas.     

Interagency working group on demographic projections

The Interagency Working Group on Demographic Projections held its 8th session in Amman, Jordan during May 1977. Under discussion at the session was the progress of work in the field of demographic projection. A report of the current activity of preparing illustrative national population projections by sex and age based on assumptions obtained from intensive empirical observations was reviewed. Information was also provided concerning the computer program developed by ESCAP. Future ESCAP work in this area would include the preparation of projections for urban and rural populations of each country which take into account more than 1 assumption on mortality. 1 of the important recommendations made in the session was that future demographic projections should be presented by developed and developing regions and that the developing regions should include the subregion of "least developed countries."     

Rural–Urban Child Height for Age Trajectories and Their Heterogeneous Determinants in Four Developing Countries

The large literature on health differentials between rural and urban areas relies almost exclusively on cross-sectional data. Bringing together the demographic literature on area-level health inequalities with the bio-physiological literature on children’s catch-up growth over time, this paper uses panel data to investigate the stability and origins of rural–urban health differentials. Using data from the Young Lives longitudinal study of child poverty, I present evidence of large level differences but similar trends in rural versus urban children’s height for age in four developing countries. Further, observable characteristics of children’s environment such as their household wealth, mother’s education, and epidemiological environment explain these differentials in most contexts. In Peru, where they do not, children’s birthweight and mothers’ health and other characteristics suggest that initial endowments—even before birth—may play an important role in explaining "residual" rural–urban child height inequalities. These latter results imply that prioritizing maternal nutrition and health is essential—particularly where rural–urban height inequalities are large. Interventions to reduce area-level health inequalities should begin even before birth.     

Selective Mortality During the Khmer Rouge Period in Cambodia

Aspects of the long‐term demographic impact of genocide during the period of the Khmer Rouge (1975–79) in Cambodia are analyzed. Mortality data for siblings from the Cambodia Demographic and Health Survey in 2000 demonstrate that excess mortality was extremely high and heavily concentrated during 1974–80. The study also shows that mortality was highly selective during that period. Adult males were the most likely to die, indicating that violent death played a major role. Individuals with an urban or educated background were more likely to die. Mortality by religious background is also assessed. Infant and early childhood mortality was very high during the period and was as prevalent in urban areas and among children born to educated mothers as in rural areas and among the less educated.