Determinants of fertility levels and change among developed countries: 1958–1978

This article provides a multivariate cross-national test of the hypothesis that national population/family planning policies have effected levels, and changes in fertility in developed nations over the past two decades. Variation is assessed in the total fertility rates (TFR) in 1978, and in the change in these rates between 1958 and 1978, among thirty developed countries. Measures include socioeconomic development, divorce, percent in consensual unions, female labor force participation, abortion policy, and level of contraceptive use by married couples and, government population/family planning policy. Seventy percent of the variation in 1978 TFR is related to the percent contracepting, female labor force, and the population/family planning policy measures. These are the only measures with significant direct effects. A longitudinal analysis of 1958 to 1978 change in TFRs is also conducted. This model increases R² to 75%, and the three independent variables remain significant. Implications of these findings for policy makers interested in increasing or decreasing fertility rates are noted.     

Normative or economic behavior? Fertility and women’s employment in Israel

Women’s employment and childrearing are competing activities, which exert much pressure on their time and energy. Many studies have found that women in paid employment, especially in a demanding career, limit their fertility and have few children or none. This negative correlation was explained mainly in terms of opportunity costs and the incompatibility of women’s employment and childrearing. This study focuses on the interplay between women’s employment and fertility decisions in Israel, a socially diverse country, characterized by high levels of both fertility and female employment. We argue that in an environment which supports and encourages high fertility women’s employment activity is less consequential for family planning. The study analyzes simultaneously the decision to have a third child and the decision to work. The findings show that fertility affects negatively women’s work activity, but women’s employment has no effect on their decision to have an additional child. Also, cultural variables affect the fertility decision but not economic considerations, while the opposite holds for the work decision.     

The impact of family planning programs on fertility in developing countries: A critical evaluation

Controversy surrounds the question: do organized family planning programs produce fertility decline in developing countries that is independent of other causes? Two major conclusions emerge from this critical evaluation of 26 past studies on this question. First, the disparate results are associated with the differential validity of the studies. Second, the fertility declines or variations analyzed were generated mainly be indigenous causes, that is, they would have occurred and the means for bringing them about would have been available without family planning programs. Hence, the programs had little net effect on fertility.     

A dynamic macro social indicator model of changes in marriage, family, and population in the United States: 1947–1974

This paper presents an integrated 21-equation model of how marriage, family, and population conditions, as indexed by macro social indicators, affect each other and are affected by other social, demographic, and economic forces. An opportunity structures theoretical paradigm is applied to the specification of dynamic structural equations for determining changes (both trends and cyclical fluctuations) in marriage formation and dissolution, family and household composition, fertility, mortality, population growth, and population distribution. The equations are estimated on annual national data for the United States during the post-World War II years 1947 to 1972, and then they are used to make conditional forecasts of the values of some of the endogenous variables for 1973 and 1974. It is found that the equations fit the observed data well, lack demonstrable autocorrelation of disturbances, and forecast the 1973 and 1974 values usually with less than 2% error. Strategies are sketched for further refining some of the equations, and it is suggested that this model should be integrated into a larger societal model in order to estimate some of the effects of changes in demographic phenomena on other social conditions.     

新疆生产建设兵团新型军垦生育文化的文化成因探析

新疆生产建设兵团在五十多年的时间里,形成了具有明显兵团特色的新型军垦生育文化。文章拟从移民文化、党政军企合一的军垦文化、兵团特色的妇女文化等视角来揭示兵团新型军垦生育文化的成因,为构建社会主义新型生育文化提供一个可资借鉴的个案。     

Components of change in the number of female family heads ages 15 to 44, an update and reanalysis: United States, 1940 to 1983

We review the literature dealing with the various components of change in the number of female family heads and conclude that P. Cutright's (1974, Journal of Marriage and the Family 36, 714–721) four components of change in the number of ever-married female family heads can be usefully applied to a reanalysis of decade-by-decade changes in this quantity among white and nonwhite women ages 15–44, from 1940 through 1980. However, we substantially revise and update Cutright's (1974) original data. Our findings include the fact that while the relative importance of the various components of increases in ever-married female family headship vary from decade to decade, overall trends are fairly similar for white and nonwhite women. Moreover, the rapid rise between 1970 and 1980 in the number of white and nonwhite female family heads among the never-married (single) continued through the 1980 to 1983 period. A decade ago, Cutright (1974) predicted that a change in the number of female family heads from 1970 on would reflect little more than changes in the numbers of ever- and never-married women ages 15–44. We discuss this inaccurate prediction and conclude that wishful thinking is a poor guide in forecasting the future.     

论完善利益导向机制对稳定我省低生育水平的重要性

我省虽已进入低生育水平阶段,但这个低生育水平是在多数群众的生育观念并未发生根本转变的前提下依靠行政制约和经济处罚措施实现的,人口出生反弹的可能性依然存在。在新的历史时期,我们必须从经济学的角度,深化和拓展对稳定低生育水平的认识,探寻最终实现人口现代化的良策,为经济社会的发展提供坚实保障。低生育水平能否稳定,最终取决于能否建立起以利益导向机制为主要内容的政策支持体系,取决于能否形成齐抓共管、综合治理与计划生育的良好社会局面。     

Population growth and the birth squeeze

Birth squeezes result from an imbalance in the number of males and females in the childbearing ages, and can have a significant impact on the level and distribution of births. To measure the effects of a birth squeeze, the observed male and female age-specific birth rates were distinguished from the underlying fertility magnitudes, which reflect the mutual propensity of males and females of specified ages to have a child. The fertility magnitudes, readily expressible in terms of the birth rates, are nonetheless independent of the age-sex composition of the population, while the birth rates are affected by compositional changes. The two-sex Total Fertility Rate, TFR2, the average of the male and female TFRs, is advanced as a summary measure of fertility independent of the birth squeeze, and a simple index, U, is defined to measure the severity of the squeeze. Analyses involving stable population models, alternative population projections, and the birth squeezes found in contemporary populations documented the importance of the birth squeeze for studies of fertility. In particular, the size of the distortions introduced by the birth squeeze was seen as related to the level of fertility itself. In high-fertility populations, the birth squeeze depresses observed female age-specific birth rates, and thus conventional measures can significantly underestimate the fertility reduction needed to end population growth.     

城乡居民生育意愿差异及其影响因素

意愿生育性别偏好虽然只是人们的一种主观生育意愿,但会对生育行为产生一定的影响。当生育数量不受限制时,人们通过多育来满足性别偏好。当生育数量受到生育政策的约束和限制时,人们往往通过各种技术手段来满足性别偏好。生产力、文化、社会、经济、政策领域等方面因素是城乡居民意愿生育性别偏好差异的形成原因．应从文化、经济、社会、政策层面削弱城乡性别偏好差异。     

Producing adulthood: Adolescent employment, fertility, and the life course

Adolescent employment is typically framed as having either positive or negative effects. Yet cutting edge research yields apparently contradictory results; work lowers delinquency but also increases school dropout. Both opportunity cost and life course development theories could explain these results. This study investigates effects of employment on fertility among adolescent women, which pits life course development against opportunity cost theory. Using 2006 and 2007 American Community Surveys, individual instrumental variable and state-level difference-in-difference models (following the same cohort over time) control for self-selection and find a positive effect of employment on adolescent fertility. National Vital Statistics birth data confirm state-level results. Results for fertility (and some evidence for other early transitions) indicate that youth employment speeds the transition to adulthood, supporting life course theory. Findings suggest adolescent employment should be reconceived as promoting adult rather than positive or negative behavior.     

Model fertility schedules revisited: The log-multiplicative model approach

This paper reconsiders Coale and Trussell's (1974) specification of model fertility schedules by age. It formally presents model fertility schedules within the framework of categorical data analysis. Specifically, births are assumed to follow an independent Poisson distribution for each age interval of each population. Identification and estimation problems are discussed. It shows that the Coale-Trussell specification corresponds to Goodman's (1979) log-multiplicative model. Following Goodman's algorithm, the paper simultaneously estimates Coale and Trussell's υ (age), m, and M through an iterative maximum likelihood procedure. This is demonstrated with the same data that were used in Coale and Trussell's article. The new estimates are superior to those of Coale and Trussell according to an array of conventional goodness-of-fit criteria.     

生育行为中的性别选择与公共政策回应

生育行为是理性选择的结果,从当前我国的实际情况看,男孩偏好符合这种理性。严格的计划生育政策使得人们有强烈的动机通过性别选择来实现男孩偏好,而现代医学技术提供了这种可能。性别选择导致了出生人口性别比严重失衡,可能引起婚姻拥挤,危害身心健康。为改变这一现状,政府应制定相关政策,以降低男孩偏好、禁止性别选择。     

妇女、家庭与生育

在临近20世纪末的时候,人们发现家庭制度已经发生了很大的变化,呈现出一幅之多散漫的状态,那么在这些变化中,妇女在家庭与生育问题中所处的地位发生了多少变化,我们希望通过国内外的一些数字来说明问题。因为这些数字的背后折射地是一个心理观念、价值取向的现实问题。数字告诉我们妇女、家庭与生育问题也是一个事关社会稳定与发展的大问题。     

论道家道教中的生育和谐思想

道家道教典籍中蕴含了大量丰富而深刻的生育思想,这些生育思想无论从其对于生育的目的和意义的阐述上,还是从其对于生育的数量要求和性别平衡的追求以及对于生育禳解护理的具体实践的论述中,都深刻体现了道家道教追求生育和谐的思想旨趣和价值取向。生育的完成有赖于家庭环境和婚姻生活的和谐有序,这也是道家道教生育思想的有机组成部分。深入探讨道家道教中蕴含的生育和谐思想,对于我们建设和谐社会具有重要的思想价值和实践意义。     

住房财富效应与居住模式对适龄人群生育意愿的影响研究

在城市住房价格居高不下与生育率持续走低的背景下,文章通过OLS模型,采用CGSS2018年调查数据和2017年城市房价数据,研究住房财富效应与居住模式对适龄人群生育意愿的影响。结果表明:住房的财富效应对适龄生育人群生育意愿具有正向促进作用;核心家庭相较于主干家庭的生育意愿较低;核心家庭偏向生育女孩,主干家庭偏向生育男孩。通过工具变量法进行检验,结果仍然稳健。建议加大保障性住房供给,重塑主干家庭,鼓励代际同居,以提高适龄人群的生育意愿。     

Educational differentials in cohabitors' marriage intentions at different childbearing stages in seven European countries

Several studies have looked into the socio-economic gradients of cohabitation and non-marital fertility. According to the theory of the Second Demographic Transition, highly educated individuals can be considered as forerunners in the Western European spread of non-marital family forms after the 1970s. In Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), however, research has provided evidence for a Pattern of Disadvantage where those with the lowest education have been the most likely to adopt such family forms. Hitherto, few studies have considered the educational gradient of the intentions underlying these behaviors. This contribution uses information on marriage and fertility intentions from the Generations and Gender Surveys for seven European countries to assess educational differentials. In Western Europe we observe no strong educational gradients in marriage intentions at any childbearing stage (before, during or following). In CEE countries, however, less educated cohabitors more frequently choose for cohabitation during childbearing.     

Family structure and the intergenerational transmission of educational advantage

I examine whether the effect of parents’ education on children’s educational achievement and attainment varies by family structure and, if so, whether this can be explained by differential parenting practices. Using data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988, I find that as parents’ education increases, children in single mother families experience a lower boost in their achievement test scores, likelihood of attending any post-secondary schooling, likelihood of completing a 4-year college degree, and years of completed schooling relative to children living with both biological parents. Differences in parents’ educational expectations, intergenerational closure, and children’s involvement in structured leisure activities partially explain these status transmission differences by family structure. The findings imply that, among children with highly educated parents, children of single mothers are less likely to be highly educated themselves relative to children who grow up with both biological parents.     

新疆维吾尔族打工妹的社会角色和家庭地位转变——喀什地区疏勒县巴仁乡的调查

本论文将城镇化与巴仁乡打工妹社会角色和家庭地位转变问题紧密结合,以巴仁乡打工妹的社会角色地位转变为主线,对巴仁乡打工妹的家庭资源的支配权、家庭主要事务的参与权、自主择偶程度以及对家庭经济地位自我评价等几方面做一个详细的、系统的田野调查,找出外出务工经验对巴仁乡打工妹社会角色和家庭地位的影响,并对经济因素对妇女家庭地位的影响这一研究假设进行验证,从而得到结论.     

关于调整我国现行生育政策的思考

在为什么需要适时调整我国现行生育政策上,应恰如其分地认识它对减缓未来人口老龄化和老年抚养比严重程度、增强未来家庭养老功能、促进未来广大少年儿童身心健康成长和抑制未来出生人口性别比持续升高的作用;在何时调整我国现行生育政策上,从多方面考虑以2015年后较为合适;在如何调整我国现行生育政策上,最好采取"新人新办法,老人老办法"的"双轨制"。     

现阶段我国少数民族人口发展的回顾与展望

现阶段我国少数民族人口的发展,呈现为整体增长较快、各少数民族之间发展不平衡、阶段性波动大等特点。造成该现象的原因,主要是与新中国建立以来特别是改革开放以来经济发展、社会稳定、民族团结的宏观社会历史背景,在计划生育工作中国家对少数民族“适当放宽”的政策以及1982～1989年间因按国家政策更改民族成分引起的人口数量异常变动和某些技术性因素相关。未来我国少数民族人口的发展,在"适当放宽"政策和民族通婚两大因素的作用下,将继续维持在高于汉族的增长率水平上运行,预计到2050年,我国少数民族人口将达到2亿人以上。