Economic development and fertility

Two schools of theorists have been concerned with the effect of economic development on fertility. One school has contended that economic development has an inhibiting effect on fertility. The demographic transition which has occurred among the non-developed countries confirms their viewpoint. Another school of thought, including in its members Thomas Malthus, has believed that economic development promoted fertility. Much empirical evidence may also be brought to bear to support this viewpoint.The present paper attempts to reconcile these viewpoints. It is hypothesized that the direct effect of economic development is to increase fertility. However, various factors which usually accompany the process of economic development serve to reduce fertility. These include an increase in the level of education and a reduction in infant and childhood mortality. Making use of data for 41 nations pertaining to the decade of the 1950's, it is found that fertility is directly associated with per capita net national product when controls for other relevant variables are in8tituted. On the other hand, per capita newspaper circulation is inversely related to fertility, and infant mortality is directly related.If the hypothesis advanced in this paper is correct, relatively large governmental expenditures on health and education will enhance the reduction in fertility obtainable from an increase in national economic level alone.     

Consistency between fertility attitudes and behaviour: A conceptual model

Abstract The consistency (or lack of it) between attitude and behaviour has been a controversial issue in social psychology for the past several decades,(1) and more recently has become a focus of considerable controversy in the field of population studies.(2) In accordance with Freedman, Hermalin and Chang,(3)it is argued here that this controversy will not be resolved by theoretical discussions, and evidence is needed from many countries at several time points to resolve this issue. This paper presents evidence on consistency between fertility attitudes and behaviour from survey data from Venezuela and, based upon analysis of the present data, suggests a conceptual model for the study of consistency between fertility attitudes and behaviour.     

Consistency between fertility attitudes and behaviour: A conceptual model

The consistency (or lack of it) between attitude and behaviour has been a controversial issue in social psychology for the past several decades,¹ and more recently has become a focus of considerable controversy in the field of population studies.² In accordance with Freedman, Hermalin and Chang,³it is argued here that this controversy will not be resolved by theoretical discussions, and evidence is needed from many countries at several time points to resolve this issue. This paper presents evidence on consistency between fertility attitudes and behaviour from survey data from Venezuela and, based upon analysis of the present data, suggests a conceptual model for the study of consistency between fertility attitudes and behaviour.     

Economic recession and fertility in the developed world

This article reviews research on the effects of economic recessions on fertility in the developed world. We study how economic downturns, as measured by various indicators, especially by declining GDP levels, falling consumer confidence, and rising unemployment, were found to affect fertility. We also discuss particular mechanisms through which the recession may have influenced fertility behavior, including the effects of economic uncertainty, falling income, changes in the housing market, and rising enrollment in higher education, and also factors that influence fertility indirectly such as declining marriage rates. Most studies find that fertility tends to be pro-cyclical and often rises and declines with the ups and downs of the business cycle. Usually, these aggregate effects are relatively small (typically, a few percentage points) and of short durations; in addition they often influence especially the timing of childbearing and in most cases do not leave an imprint on cohort fertility levels. Therefore, major long-term fertility shifts often continue seemingly uninterrupted during the recession—including the fertility declines before and during the Great Depression of the 1930s and before and during the oil shock crises of the 1970s. Changes in the opportunity costs of childbearing and fertility behavior during economic downturn vary by sex, age, social status, and number of children; childless young adults are usually most affected. Furthermore, various policies and institutions may modify or even reverse the relationship between recessions and fertility. The first evidence pertaining to the recent recession falls in line with these findings. In most countries, the recession has brought a decline in the number of births and fertility rates, often marking a sharp halt to the previous decade of rising fertility rates.     

Economic development and fertility: A methodological re-evaluation

Summary Several studies in recent years have investigated the relationship between economic development and fertility, using the methods of multiple and partial correlation. Results from these studies have been interpreted to show that economic development, while directly tending to increase fertility, also gives rise to factors which inhibit it, resulting in an eventual decrease in fertility with increasing development. The present study re-examines the methodology and empirical results upon which this explanation is based and finds little statistical or empirical support for such a model. Subsequent statistical re-examination of the data from one of these studies reveals that the major independent variables in the model are largely redundant, and that the model is untenable in that it seeks to establish patterns of interrelation between what appear to be redundant constructs. The isolation of additional statistically independent variables is suggested to improve the explanation of variance in fertility in terms of its social and economic correlates.     

Economic structure and fertility: A comparative analysis

This study empirically investigates the relationship between the economic structure of populations and their level of fertility, using data from censuses recently conducted in some 50 nations. Findings show that high rates of female labor force participation outside the home and low rates of economic activity of children depress a society’s fertility level, as measured by the crude birth rate or the child-woman ratio. It is also hypothesized, but not confirmed, that the per cent of unpaid family workers in a society is positively related to its fertility level. A model is presented that treats these three components of economic structure as intervening variables through which the exogenous variables, urbanization, industrialization, and education, operate in influencing the fertility level of a society.     

Economic growth and stagnation with endogenous health and fertility

This article offers a theory of economic growth, stagnation, and demo-economic transition that originates from external effects of child-bearing, health expenditure, and education under endogenous mortality. Facing a hierarchy of needs, parents always consume and want to have a family. Child quality, measured as a two-dimensional vector of child health and schooling, becomes only affordable when uncontrollable mortality is sufficiently low. Child quality expenditure initiates an economic take-off and convergence towards perpetual growth while its absence may cause convergence towards an equilibrium of economic stagnation and high fertility. This way, the article provides an explanation for diverging growth rates from a cross-country perspective.I would like to thank Noël Bonneuil, Piero Manfredi, Nikolaus Siegfried, Richard Tol, and two anonymous referees for useful comments. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

Economic development and fertility change in Mexico, 1950–1970

This paper is an attempt to isolate the determinants of fertility in Mexico. Of the variables included, two are significant in accounting for differences in the level of completed fertility in the 32 "states" in 1970. They are the share of the labor force in agriculture, which is directly related to fertility, and the percentage of the population speaking an indigenous language, which shows an inverse relationship.The most important factors acting to reduce total fertility rates over time are increases in life expectancy and declines in the share of the labor force in agriculture. However, based on the estimated linear relationship, these two variables by themselves are not adequate to achieve a rapid decline in fertility in the future.     

Dynamic microeconomic models of fertility choice: a survey

We review existing approaches to the specification and estimation of dynamic microeconomic models of fertility. Dynamic fertility models explain the evolution of fertility variates over the life-cycle as the solution to a dynamic programming model involving economic choices. Dynamic models may be classified into structural and reduced-form models. Structural models generally require solution of the underlying dynamic programming problem. Reduced-form models, while based on a structural specification, do not. Recent innovations in estimation methodologies make both types practical and realistic alternatives to static models of lifetime fertility. JEL classification: J13, C41, C61 Received August 26, 1994/Accepted October 23, 1996     

Unemployment and social problems in the post-war United States

This paper examines the impact of unemployment on social problems in the post-war United States. Working within a conceptual framework derived from sociological and economic theory, dynamic macro social indicator models are constructed for four social problems-rates of suicide, homicide, divorce and alcoholism. In general, the results do not indicate a strong and consistent relationship between the unemployment rate and these social problems. High or increasing unemployment rates tend to raise the suicide rate, but lower the alcoholism rate and have no appreciable effect on the divorce rate. High levels of unemployment lower the homicide rate, but increases in unemployment tend to raise it. For all social problems except the divorce rate, the level of economic inequality has a consistently positive influence.     

Presentation and establishment of a system of total progressive fertility rates and relevant models

Demographic studies necessarily rely on adequate and accurate statistical data. To take into consideration China's present situation of population control and planned birth practice, a system of total progressive fertility rate (TPFR) different from the parity progression ratio is established and its relevant model presented in order to make indicators used in analysing women's 1st marriage and fertility level reflect as closely as possible the actual situation. Here, TFR and TPFR, both used in analyzing fertility level, are compared so as to show that TPFR is a methodology more appropriate for use in the analysis of China's fertility. The model is based on the fact that women's vital events happen progressively from being born to completing childbearing. In composing the model, both women's age structure and parity structure are considered and the regularity of their changes with different years is defined. In China, the population development program has been brought into the overall social and economic development plan. Thus it is necessary to practice planned birth in order to make the population develop in a way which is in keeping with the social and economic development. Compared with other models or theories, it is more realistic to use the model discussed above in studies on China's population policy.     

The perils of father-reported fertility data for household labour supply models

Many panel data-sets contain father-reported fertility data. Yet, since men tend to underreport past fertility--especially daughters or children from previous marriages--using such data can lead to significantly biased results when estimating household labour supply models. For example, when analysing fertility data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, which has a significant retrospective component, fathers' labour supply appears more responsive to the births of sons than to daughters (Lundberg and Rose, Review of Economics and Statistics 84(2): 251-268, 2002). However, no evidence for this differential can be found in a much larger sample of Current Population Survey data from the same population. It is important for researchers to consider the provenance of data on fertility variables and to undertake robustness checks with data reported by women whenever possible.     

Economic determinants of fertility: Results from cross sectional aggregate data

Census data for areal units, SMSA’s in 1960 and cities in 1940, are used to test hypotheses and estimate parameters concerning the influence of a variety of socioeconomic variables on fertility rates of ever married white and nonwhite women aged 25–29, 30–34, 35–44, and 45–49. An economic model of the demand for children is adopted as the theoretical framework. The principal findings are that the market earnings opportunities for wives have an important negative effect on the fertility rate and that male income, representing the income of husbands, has a small but positive effect on fertility. The implication of these results is that changes in economic variables, for example, improvements in the employment opportunities and wages for wives or the establishment of a children’s allowance program, may be expected to affect fertility.     

Economic development and fertility decline: lessons from Asia's newly industrialized countries

The general thesis that economic development and fertility decline are interrelated is substantiated in literature that discusses the successes of the newly industrialized countries of Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. When countries are developing rapidly, family planning accelerates the rate of fertility change, particularly among the poor uneducated rural population. Relying on economic and social development is not enough. National policy in Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, and Taiwan recognized that population growth drains resources and the family planning programs operating since the 1960s contributed to a drop from 5 children/woman to 2 by 1988, and 70% of married couples used contraception. Coupled with this, age at marriage rose, contraception became more available, and educational and employment opportunities increased. Economically, the growth rate in the 1980's was 6-10% annually, with growth in the manufacturing and service sectors and export trade. Close economic ties evolved between governments and private sectors. Social development programs had been fully funded and gains evident in education, living standards, health care and nutrition, and life expectancy. The success of family planning is attributed to encouraging contraceptive awareness and use. Fertility reduction may occur with social and economic development, but no developing countries have reduced fertility without family planning. The relative importance of family planning may change over time, and reducing the cost through government sponsored family planning programs and encouraging the acceptability of contraceptive usage.     

Economic fortunes, ethnic divides, and marriage and fertility in Central Asia: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan compared

Declining marriage and fertility rates following the collapse of state socialism have been the subject of numerous studies in Central and Eastern Europe. More recent literature has focused on marriage and fertility dynamics in the period of post-crisis political stabilization and economic growth. However, relatively little research on marriage and fertility has dealt with the Central Asian part of the post-socialist world. We use survey and published data from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, two multiethnic countries with differing paths of post-crisis recovery, to examine overall and ethnic-specific trends in entry into marriage and fertility. We find that in both countries rates of entry into marriage continued to decline throughout post-crisis years. By contrast, fertility rose, and this rise was greater in the more prosperous Kazakhstan. However, we also detect considerable ethnic variations in fertility trends which we situate within the ethnopolitical and ethnodemographic contexts of both countries.     

Enabling new graduate midwives to work in midwifery continuity of care models: A conceptual model for implementation

Background

High-level evidence demonstrates midwifery continuity of care is beneficial for women and babies. Women have limited access to midwifery continuity of care models in Australia. One of the factors limiting women’s access is recruiting enough midwives to work in continuity. Our research found that newly graduated midwives felt well prepared to work in midwifery led continuity of care models, were well supported to work in the models and the main driver to employing them was a need to staff the models. However limited opportunities exist for new graduate midwives to work in midwifery continuity of care.