RISK AVERSION AND OVERBIDDING IN FIRST PRICE SEALED BID AUCTIONS: NEW EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE

Bidding above the risk‐neutral Nash equilibrium in first price sealed bid auctions has traditionally been ascribed to risk aversion. Later studies, however, offer other explanations and even argue that risk aversion plays no or a minor role. In a novel experimental design, we directly test the relationship between risk aversion and overbidding by systematically varying the distribution of risk attitudes in auction markets. We find a significant relationship between our measure of risk aversion and overbidding. (JEL D44, C91)     

SALARIES OR PIECE RATES: ON THE ENDOGENOUS MATCHING OF HARVEST WORKERS AND CROPS

The objective of this paper is to determine whether the choice of payment schemes (hourly vs. piece rates) is systematically related to the workers' risk aversion and ability. We derive the equilibrium relationship between agents' risk aversion and ability and the power of incentives (payment scheme) in a market where many heterogeneous principals and agents are endogenously matched. The equilibrium matching between principals and agents depends on the traits and is critical in determining the contract choice. Using confidential data from the National Agricultural Workers Survey (NAWS), we find evidence of matching between agricultural workers and the riskiness of their jobs (crops they harvest) based on workers' risk aversion and no matching based on ability. When controlling for matching, we find strong evidence that high risk‐averse workers choose hourly rates and low risk‐averse workers choose piece rates. We also found that high ability types choose piece rates and low ability types choose hourly rates but the evidence is weaker. (JEL J33, D82, Q12)     

Anticipated Regret,Risk Perception,or Both: Which is Most Likely Responsible for Our Intention to Gamble?

The current study investigated whether risk aversion or regret aversion could be related to a lower intention to gamble, and whether the type of gambling was a moderator of this relationship. The study took place in Macau, often called “the Las Vegas of East Asia.” A total of 373 Macau residents completed a questionnaire survey dealing with thirteen types of gambling. The results showed that risk perception and anticipated regret had a significant negative effect on the intention to gamble. This negative effect was domain-specific, varying with the type of gambling. Our findings indicated that neither risk aversion nor regret aversion can uniquely explain an individual’s risk-taking tendency consistently. Instead, which factor plays a greater role in lowering the intention to gamble—regret aversion, risk aversion, or both—is itself dependent on the type of gambling involved. The finding that not all gambles are created equal could be useful in gambling prevention and advertising appeal by providing a basis for understanding the role that cognitive and emotional factors play in different types of gambling.     

Risk attitudes and risky behavior

In economic theory, risk aversion is a characteristic of the typical utility function of money. Observations of how people deal with risks in real life have cast some doubts on the prevalence of risk aversion. People buy insurance, but they also gamble and take investment risks. Many of the conclusions in the discussions of utility derive from experiments employing some kind of lottery choices. While the experiments have given interesting ideas for theory, there has been little testing of the extent to which the obtained measures of risk attitudes correlate with actual behavior. Data from the VSB panel were used to answer three questions: (1) Can hypothetical risky choice questions be meaningfully answered by ordinary survey respondents? (2) What are the relationships between different measures of risk attitudes and actual portfolio choices of risky assets? (3) What is the relationship between risk attitude and playing in lotteries, lotto, etc.?     

DESPERATION OR DESIRE? THE ROLE OF RISK AVERSION IN MARRIAGE

Because of the uncertainty inherent in searching for a spouse and the uncertainty of the future quality and state of the marriage itself, risk attitudes likely directly impact the timing of marriage. The effect of an individual’s risk aversion, measured via a series of hypothetical gambles over income on time to marriage, is examined using survival analysis. I find risk aversion significantly affects time to marriage, with more risk averse respondents marrying sooner than their more risk‐loving counterparts. Within‐family analyses using sibling data reveal a similar pattern. In addition, the effect of risk aversion on time to marriage is larger in magnitude and more statistically significant for men. One possible explanation for the different results between the sexes is that women value risk aversion as a desirable trait in potential mates. (JEL J10, J11, J12, J16)     

Cultural capital or relative risk aversion? Two mechanisms for educational inequality compared1

In this paper we empirically examined two explanatory mechanisms for educational inequality: cultural reproduction and relative risk aversion, using survey data taken from secondary school pupils in Amsterdam. Cultural reproduction theory seeks to explain class variations in schooling by cultural differences between social classes. Relative risk aversion theory argues that educational inequalities can be understood by between-class variation in the necessity of pursuing education at branching points in order to avoid downward mobility. We showed that class variations in early demonstrated ability are for a substantial part cultural: cultural capital - measured by parental involvement in highbrow culture - affected school performance at the primary and secondary level. However, relative risk aversion - operationalized by being concerned with downward mobility - strongly affects schooling ambitions, whereas cultural capital had no effect. Thus, we conclude that 'primary effects' of social origin on schooling outcomes are manifested through cultural capital and not through relative risk aversion (in addition to other potential sources of class variations such as genetics). Relative risk aversion, and not cultural capital, affects schooling ambitions, which is relevant for our understanding of secondary effects.     

Dispositional optimism and stock investments

This paper analyzes the relationship between dispositional optimism and stock investments, controlling for cognitive skills and personality traits such as trust, social interactions and risk aversion. We use data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) on investors aged 50+ in twelve European countries. Our results show that dispositional optimism and personality matter for financial decisions. Optimism is positively and significantly related to both the ownership of stocks and the share of gross financial wealth invested in these assets and its role is especially relevant for risk tolerant investors and investors with little trust in others.     

Heterogeneity of Loss Aversion in Pathological Gambling

Pathological gambling (PG) is characterized by continual repeated gambling behavior despite negative consequences. PG is considered to be a disorder of altered decision-making under risk, and behavioral economics tools were utilized by studies on decision-making under risk. At the same time, PG was suggested to be a heterogeneous disorder in terms of personality traits as well as risk attitude. We aimed to examine the heterogeneity of PG in terms of loss aversion, which means that a loss is subjectively felt to be larger than the same amount of gain. Thirty-one male PG subjects and 26 male healthy control (HC) subjects underwent a behavioral economics task for estimation of loss aversion and personality traits assessment. Although loss aversion in PG subjects was not significantly different from that in HC subjects, distributions of loss aversion differed between PG and HC subjects. HC subjects were uniformly classified into three levels (low, middle, high) of loss aversion, whereas PG subjects were mostly classified into the two extremes, and few PG subjects were classified into the middle range. PG subjects with low and high loss aversion showed a significant difference in anxiety, excitement-seeking and craving intensity. Our study suggested that PG was a heterogeneous disorder in terms of loss aversion. This result might be useful for understanding cognitive and neurobiological mechanisms and the establishment of treatment strategies for PG.     

Risk-taking behavior in the presence of nonconvex asset dynamics

The growing literature on poverty traps emphasizes the links between multiple equilibria and risk avoidance. However, multiple equilibria may also foster risk-taking behavior by some poor people. We illustrate this idea with a simple analytical model in which people with different wealth and ability endowments make investment and risky activity choices in the presence of known nonconvex asset dynamics. This model underscores a crucial distinction between familiar static concepts of risk aversion and forward-looking dynamic risk responses to nonconvex asset dynamics. Even when unobservable preferences exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion, observed behavior may suggest that risk aversion actually increases with wealth near perceived dynamic asset thresholds. Although high ability individuals are not immune from poverty traps, they can leverage their capital endowments more effectively than lower ability types and are therefore less likely to take seemingly excessive risks. In general, linkages between behavioral responses and wealth dynamics often seem to run in both directions. Both theoretical and empirical poverty trap research could benefit from making this two-way linkage more explicit.     

Sex hormones and choice under risk

We study the correlation of choice under risk in Holt–Laury lotteries for gains and losses with gender, the use of hormonal contraceptives, menstrual cycle information, salivary testosterone, estradiol, progesterone, and cortisol as well as the digit ratio (2D:4D; length of the index finger to the ring finger of the right hand) in more than 200 subjects (45% females). In males, salivary testosterone is negatively correlated with risk aversion for gains only. In females, salivary cortisol is positively correlated with risk aversion for gains only. No other significant correlations between risk preferences and salivary hormones are observed. No significant correlations between risk preferences and the menstrual cycle are observed in naturally cycling females. No significant correlations between risk preferences and the digit ratio are observed in either gender and/or race.     

Risk preferences and child investments: evidence from Mexico

This paper examines how parental risk aversion influences child investments. Using an experimental measure of risk aversion from the Mexican Family Life Survey, I find that boys have higher weight-for-age and BMI-for-age in households where the mother is highly risk averse. The higher BMI is not necessarily healthy because the boys are more likely to be in the overweight range and less likely to be in the normal range. I also find evidence that risk averse mothers spend more on their son’s schooling related expenditures such as materials, uniforms, and spending money. A comparison of siblings reveals a gender gap in child investments that is increasing in maternal risk aversion.     

Same- and Other-Sex Aversion and Attraction as Important Correlates of Quality and Outcomes of Mormon Mixed-Orientation Marriages

Many studies have assessed characteristics of mixed-orientation marriages (MOM), unions between a gay, lesbian, bisexual, or queer/questioning (GLBQ) partner and a heterosexual spouse. In this study, experiences of physical and emotional other-sex attraction versus aversion were posited as important factors with implications for relationship outcomes. One-hundred-sixty-five GLBQ identifying individuals who were currently or formerly in MOMs and were currently or formerly members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints (LDS, Mormon) completed a measure of physical and emotional same- and other-sex attraction and aversion, as well as the Revised Dyadic Adjustment Scale. Divorced or separated participants reported more other-sex physical aversion, physical aversion to the spouse, other-sex emotional aversion, same-sex emotional attraction, and less emotional attraction to the spouse. Higher other-sex attraction and attraction to the spouse were associated with better relationship quality for both men and women in intact marriages. For men only, same-sex attraction was related to worse marital relationship quality, and religiosity was moderately to strongly related to most indices of attraction/aversion. Interview data obtained from a subsample of participants further explored the unique challenges experienced by partners in their efforts to develop and maintain intimacy in MOMs.     

Gender differences in social risk taking

Women in Western societies are typically more risk averse than men in individual risk taking decisions. In real life, however, risk taking decisions are usually made in a social context. So far, empirical evidence whether gender differences are also present in the social risk taking domain is missing. We use a controlled experiment to analyze gender differences in social risk taking. We find that inequality aversion is the main driver for risk aversion in social risk taking. Disaggregating the data for males and females shows that this effect is mainly driven by strong inequality aversion of women. Moreover, by running the experiment with non-standard subjects from an egalitarian small-scale society, our results suggest that gender differences in social risk taking are culture-specific.     

Air pollution and stock returns in the US

Health related research documents that air pollution has negative mood effects. Experimental works in psychology relate bad mood to increased risk aversion. Studies in financial economics report an observed link between mood effects and stock market returns. This study therefore investigates whether the mood effects caused by air pollution can have economic implications. It examines the relationship between air pollution and stock returns using data from the Air Quality Index, and stock returns from four stock exchanges in the US. We find that air pollution is negatively related to stock returns, even when controlling for other variables. The relationship becomes weaker as the distance of the stock exchange from the polluted area increases. The results also indicate that air pollution may even affect local traders investing in securities exchanges located far from the polluted area. The findings imply that a profitable trading strategy can be constructed.     

RISK PREFERENCE ESTIMATION IN THE NONLINEAR MEAN STANDARD DEVIATION APPROACH

Risk preferences and technology are jointly estimated in the nonlinear mean-standard deviation framework for a competitive firm model under price risk. A utility function is proposed that nests various risk preference structures and risk neutrality as empirically refutable special cases. The empirical application using firm-level data finds evidence of decreasing absolute risk aversion, differences in the nature of relative risk aversion by firm size, and little support for the widely used linear mean-variance framework. The estimation results also show that ignoring risk and risk preferences can substantially overestimate output supply and input demand elasticities.     

Stochastic Dominance and Absolute Risk Aversion

In this paper, we propose the infimum of the Arrow–Pratt index of absolute risk aversion as a measure of global risk aversion of a utility function. We show that, for any given arbitrary pair of distributions, there exists a threshold level of global risk aversion such that all increasing concave utility functions with at least as much global risk aversion would rank the two distributions in the same way. Furthermore, this threshold level is sharp in the sense that, for any lower level of global risk aversion, we can find two utility functions in this class yielding opposite preference relations for the two distributions.This paper has benefited from insightful comments made by James Mirrless, two anonymous referees, and by seminar participants at IAE and Simposio de Análisis Económico in Salamanca. They should not bear any responsibility for the remaining errors. Financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science and FEDER through grants SEC2003-306 and SEC2003-1961, from the Generalitat of Catalonia through the Barcelona Economics program (CREA) and grants 2005SGR00447 and 2005SGR00626 is gratefully acknowledged. This paper is part of the “Polarization and Conflict” project, contract 3CIT2-CT-2004-506084 funded by the European Commission.     

Risk Aversion,Shortage Economy,and Gender Differences in Religious Activities in China

The vast majority of studies in the sociology of religion show that women are more religious than men. We test a rather controversial conclusion that these differences stem from gender differences in risk aversion. Utilizing Yang's shortage economy perspective on religion in China, we argue that risk is inherent in gray market religious activities. From the risk aversion perspective, we hypothesize that women should participate in gray market less than men. Using the 2007 Spiritual Life Survey, a study of 7,021 respondents in the People's Republic of China, we model gender differences in the number of reported gray market religious activities during the previous 12 months. Our analysis fails to find support for the risk aversion hypothesis. We find that women report significantly more gray market activities than men, even after controlling for a variety of theoretically important variables. Implications for theory and research are discussed.     

TRANSACTION RISK AND BIDDING BEHAVIOR

This paper analyzes a model of consumer behavior where transaction risk in the form of a divergence between bid and executed demand is incorporated into the consumer's decision process. A neutral assumption concerning risk preferences, combined with income and expenditure constraints, is shown to be sufficient to generate behavior commonly associated with risk aversion. Such responses to transaction risk are referred to as objective reactions as opposed to subjective attitudes toward risk. The income effect is shown to play an important role in determining behavioral reactions to this type of risk.     

Income in jeopardy: How losing employment affects the willingness to take risks

Identifying the determinants of risk-taking is crucial for our understanding of a variety of choices. Using German panel data, we find that people become more risk-averse when losing work. The immediate income loss does not mediate this effect. It seems also unrelated to the loss of non-monetary benefits of work and to changes of worker’s emotional state. However, we find that risk aversion responds the more strongly to losing work the more future income is at stake, and that the effect manifests itself already on the eve of job loss when people do not yet suffer from the consequences of the event. We conclude that lower future income expectations and more uncertainty about future incomes may explain the effect of job loss on risk attitude. Our results might imply that a recession may reinforce itself as it induces people to fear job loss, which raises their risk aversion and might therefore reduce the willingness to invest in risky projects. Moreover, self-assessed risk attitude seems to measure absolute risk aversion and thus not only an underlying risk preference parameter.     

An evolutionary explanation for risk aversion

Recent models of the evolution of preferences have provided profound new insights into the origins of risk attitudes. In most of these models the evolutionary “objective function” is the maximization of the expected number of offspring, or alternatively, the maximization of the geometric-mean growth rate. We suggest that careful consideration should also be given to the objective of maximizing the probability of Having Descendants Forever, p(HDF). We show that the p(HDF) criterion implies risk aversion. Moreover, it leads to preferences that are very closely approximated by the constant relative risk aversion preferences. Thus, constant relative risk aversion can be viewed as an evolutionary-developed heuristic aimed to maximize the probability of having descendants forever.