Sex preference for children in German villages during the fertility transition

In the past, parents' sex preferences for their children have proved difficult to verify. This study used John Knodel's German village genealogies of couples married between 1815 and 1899 to investigate sex preferences for children during the fertility transition. Event history analyses of couples' propensity to progress to a fifth parity was used to test whether the probability of having additional children was influenced by the sex composition of surviving children. It appears that son preference influenced reproductive behaviour: couples having only girls experienced significantly higher transition rates than those having only boys or a mixed sibset. However, couples who married after about 1870 began to exhibit fertility behaviour consistent with the choice to have at least one surviving boy and girl. This result represents a surprisingly early move towards the symmetrical sex preference typical of modern European populations.     

Increase in natural fertility during the early stages of modernization: Canadian Indians case study

It has been hypothesized that populations may experience an increase in their natural fertility during the early stages of modernization as a result of the relaxation of various fertility-inhibiting practices and customs prevalent in traditional societies. This article offers evidence of such an increase in natural fertility among Canadian Indians. The main underlying cause is found to be in the massive, almost abrupt, shift from prolonged breastfeeding to bottle feeding which took place prior to the onset of large-scale birth control practices among Canadian Indians.     

From natural fertility to family limitation: The onset of fertility transition in a sample of German villages

Utilizing data from a sample of German village genealogies, it is possible to document the changes in reproductive patterns on the family level that started to take place in Germany during the nineteenth century and formed the basis for the secular decline in fertility which eventually encompassed the entire country. One striking finding from this study was the substantial diversity among the small sample of villages in terms of the timing of the emergence of family limitation. While couples in all villages who married during the last half of the eighteenth century appeared to be characterized predominantly by natural fertility the emergence of family limitation began as early as the turn of the nineteenth century in some places and as late as the end of the nineteenth century in others. Occupational differentials with respect to family limitation were also examined. There is little evidence that changes in birth spacing played an important part in the initial phase of the fertility trnsition. Rather, the underlying process appears to involve a change from fertility patterns that were characterized by the absence of parity-dependent control to one in which attempts to terminate childbearing in response to the number of children already born becomes widespread.     

Deliberate birth spacing before the fertility transition in Europe: evidence from nineteenth-century Belgium

Many scholars have argued that deliberate birth spacing may have played a role before and during the modern fertility transition. There are good historical and theoretical reasons for this view, but it has proved to be hard to demonstrate convincingly that birth intervals were in fact partly determined by attempts at deliberate fertility control. This paper suggests a method of securing evidence on the issue for married couples. The method is applied to three cohorts living in a Belgian town in the nineteenth century. The findings indicate that, even before the fertility transition, couples in the working class were controlling their fertility by deliberate spacing.     

Breast feeding, fertility and infant mortality: An analysis of some early German data

Abstract Concern about high infant mortality and its suspected connection with the lack of breast-feeding stimulated the collection of statistics about the frequency of breast-feeding in several German states during the late roth and early 20th centuries. Contrary to the assumption that universal and extended breast-feeding is customary among rural agricultural populations, large regional variations existed both in the proportion of children who were breast-fed and in the average duration of the period for which they were breast-fed. An analysis of these data in connection with statistics of infant mortality and marital fertility confirms the association between high infant mortality and the absence of breast-feeding. An hypothesis linking breast-feeding and fertility, however, is not confirmed. Marital fertility appears to be much more closely associated with infant mortality than with breast-feeding.     

Breast feeding,fertility and infant mortality: An analysis of some early German data

Concern about high infant mortality and its suspected connection with the lack of breast-feeding stimulated the collection of statistics about the frequency of breast-feeding in several German states during the late roth and early 20th centuries. Contrary to the assumption that universal and extended breast-feeding is customary among rural agricultural populations, large regional variations existed both in the proportion of children who were breast-fed and in the average duration of the period for which they were breast-fed. An analysis of these data in connection with statistics of infant mortality and marital fertility confirms the association between high infant mortality and the absence of breast-feeding. An hypothesis linking breast-feeding and fertility, however, is not confirmed. Marital fertility appears to be much more closely associated with infant mortality than with breast-feeding.     

Child mortality and reproductive behaviour in German village populations in the past: A micro-level analysis of the replacement effect

Abstract Reproductive histories of couples married during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries in a sample of 14 German villages are analysed in order to answer several questions regarding the relationship between child mortality and reproductive behaviour. An effort is made through selection of cases and use of multiple classification analysis to eliminate or control non-volitional or otherwise confounding influences on the relationship between a couple's experience with child mortality and their fertility. The results do not provide a decisive answer to the question of whether, under a regime of otherwise presumed natural fertility, previous experience of child mortality affected subsequent reproductive behaviour. The evidence was much clearer in indicating that behaviour consistent with replacement efforts emerged or strengthened as family limitation spread. Finally, the results indicated that though it was not necessary for overall child mortality to decline before family limitation practices were adopted, couples with the most favourable child mortality experience were most likely to practise family limitation and to reduce their fertility. Child mortality appeared at least to impede, if not totally prevent, efforts to reduce the number of children ever born or to cease childbearing at an earlier age or at a given parity.     

Completing the fertility transition in the developing world: The role of educational differences and fertility preferences

This study summarizes patterns of educational differentials in wanted and unwanted fertility at different stages of the fertility transition. The data are from Demographic and Health Surveys in 57 less developed countries. As the transition proceeds, educational differentials in wanted fertility tend to decline and differentials in unwanted fertility tend to rise. An assessment of fertility patterns in developed and less developed countries with low fertility concludes that these differentials are likely to remain substantial when less developed countries reach the end of their transitions. This conclusion implies that the educational composition of the population remains a key predictor of overall fertility in late transitional countries and that low levels of schooling can be a cause of stalling fertility.     

Completing the fertility transition in the developing world: The role of educational differences and fertility preferences

This study summarizes patterns of educational differentials in wanted and unwanted fertility at different stages of the fertility transition. The data are from Demographic and Health Surveys in 57 less developed countries. As the transition proceeds, educational differentials in wanted fertility tend to decline and differentials in unwanted fertility tend to rise. An assessment of fertility patterns in developed and less developed countries with low fertility concludes that these differentials are likely to remain substantial when less developed countries reach the end of their transitions. This conclusion implies that the educational composition of the population remains a key predictor of overall fertility in late transitional countries and that low levels of schooling can be a cause of stalling fertility.     

Infant mortality and fertility in three Bavarian villages: An analysis of family histories from the 19th century

Abstract Family history data derived from the records of three parishes in Bavaria provide evidence for several important demographic questions when analysed in conjunction with information concerning the prevalent breast-feeding practices. The results suggest strongly that breast feeding can prolong birth intervals substantially. The evidence concerning the independent influence of infant deaths on subsequent birth intervals is inconclusive. It is clear, however, that even if such an influence did exist it was relatively small, compared to the effect of lactation. In addition the results do not lend support to the hypothesis that couples experiencing low child mortality practised family limitation more than couples experiencing high child mortality. In all three parishes, however, fertility appeared to influence infant mortality. Infants born after short intervals were subject to considerably higher mortality risks than infants following longer intervals.     

Fertility and nuptiality changes in Spain from the late 18th to the early 20th century

Abstract 1.1. The course of Spanish population growth from the end of the 16th to the beginning of the 18th century was set by the effects of what demographers call 'catastrophic' mortality. As in most European populations, the occasional but recurrent ravages of epidemics, especially plague, wiped out the excess of births over deaths accumulated in 'normal' years. How accurate and close to reality this statement is cannot be discussed here; but we shall assume that, until the rSth century, short-term growth was offset by mortality above the normal levels caused by epidemics.     

Fertility and nuptiality changes in Spain from the late 18th to the early 20th century

Abstract 3.1. A regional approach often reveals features of population trends not evident in national data. We have already pointed out that the 1768 census followed the ecclesiastical sub-divisions of the country; therefore its territorial data are not comparable with those derived from later enumerations. The 1787 and 1797 censuses, on the other hand, were based on civil sub-divisions, which can be compared, when aggregated, with later censuses of the modern statistical era.     

Involuntary childlessness and voluntary fertility control during the fertility transition: Evidence from men who graduated from an American college

Abstract. Influences on the fertility of men during the American fertility decline are examined using a sample of about 1700 married men born between 1830 and 1880, all of whom attended Amherst College, Massachusetts. We consider two types of reduced fertility: involuntary childlessness as a function of health in early adulthood, and voluntary fertility control as a function of access to contraceptive technology. The relation between health, as measured by body mass index, and childlessness was nonlinear, with average sized men significantly more likely ever to father children than thin or bulky men. Among men who ever fathered a child, physicians fathered significantly fewer children while having probabilities of childlessness that were statistically indistinguishable from those of other men. Physicians may have had greater access to relatively new contraceptive technologies, which suggests a role for voluntary fertility control.     

Women's power and fertility transition: The cases of Africa and the West Indies

Over the last three decades, fertility has fallen dramatically throughout the West Indies (close to or below replacement-level on some islands). With few exceptions, fertility has risen or has remained at high levels in Africa. The difference is that Caribbean women have been empowered to pursue goals independently of their childbearing capacity, and African women have not. African fertility can be expected to decline, as it appears it may have begun in a small number of countries, where, when, and to the extent that African women come to enjoy economic mobility opportunities like those which have been available to their Caribbean peers.This paper reports findings from research supported by NSF Grants #BNS 8507605, 8520445, and 8804719 and one REU supplemental grant. I am most grateful for this support. But the views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of NSF. Caroline Bledsoe, Candice Bradley, and Etienne van de Walle deserve thanks for guiding me to the best of the recent literature on African demography, but no blame for what I did not find.     

Family limitation and the fertility transition: Evidence from the age patterns of fertility in Europe and Asia

Summary The age patterns of marital fertility levels and decline in modern Asia and historical Europe are analysed in order to answer two questions: (1) How closely do the age patterns of marital fertility in both areas prior to a systematic fertility decline conform to the age pattern of natural fertility? (2) How similar are the age patterns of the fertility transition experienced in Europe in the past, and the age pattern of fertility decline now under way in a number of Asian populations? The answers have important implications for our understanding of the fertility transition. They suggest that modern family limitation (i.e. parity-specific fertility control) was largely absent prior to a secular decline in marital fertility in both Europe and Asia. Furthermore, the evidence indicates that once the practice of family limitation starts to spread among the broader strata of the population, it seems almost inevitably to increase until it becomes a common behavioural norm. In this respect, the modern fertility transition appears to result from the spread of innovative behaviour and cannot be viewed simply as an adjustment to new socio-economic circumstances based on previously established behavioural mechanisms.     

The effect of natural disaster on fertility,birth spacing,and child sex ratio: evidence from a major earthquake in India

Natural disasters can lead to significant changes in health, economic, and demographic outcomes. However, the demographic effects of earthquakes have been studied only to a limited degree. This paper examines the effect of the 2001 Gujarat earthquake on reproductive outcomes. This earthquake killed more than 20,000 people; injured 167,000; and caused massive losses to property and civic assets. Using data from two large-scale District-Level Household Surveys (2002–2004 and 2007–2008), we employ difference-in-difference and fixed-effect regression models to compare the outcomes across earthquake-affected districts and their neighboring districts during 5 years before and after the earthquake. We find that the earthquake led to significant rises in childbirth rates. It also reduced birth spacing among uneducated, tribal, and Muslim women, and the incidence of male births among rural women. We find considerable variation in the demographic effects of the earthquake across location, household socioeconomic status, and parental age and education.     

The role of intergenerational transfers,land, and education in fertility transition in rural Kenya: the case of Nyeri district

This qualitative study reveals how population pressures, land availability, inheritance norms, and educational opportunities intertwine to influence fertility decline in rural Kenya. Focus group discussions with men and women whose childbearing occurred both before and after the onset of rapid, unexpected fertility transition in Nyeri, Kenya allowed individuals who actually participated in, or witnessed, the fertility transition to “voice” their perceptions as to the mechanisms underlying the transition. Findings suggest that, since land inheritance is a cultural norm, land scarcity and diminishing farm size often influence fertility decision-making and behavior via preferences for fewer children. Further, education does not appear to be the driving cause of fertility behavior change, but rather is adopted as a substitute for land inheritance when land resources are scarce. These findings have implications for our understanding of fertility behavior as well as for improving predictions of fertility transition in other rural sub-Saharan African contexts.     

The hospitals and population growth: The voluntary general hospitals, mortality and local populations in the English provinces in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries part 2

Summary In the second part of this article the number and nature of hospital cases treated in the light of physical, medical and surgical limitations are examined. Each hospital's records of treatment are summarised and discussed. Whether or not the hospitals were able to tackle successfully some of the major diseases and causes of death and thereby exert a positive influence in reducing mortality rates is then considered. Two main conclusions are drawn. First, that the hospitals had a positive role to play within their patient catchment areas, but that this was insufficient to affect national mortality trends decisively. Secondly, the hospitals' influence was of greater importance before the mid-nineteenth century. Despite advances in medical knowledge and techniques, population pressure, overcrowding and the growing incidence of serious cases in hospitals coupled with outbreaks of 'hospital diseases' meant that the results of hospital treatment may have become less impressive. But even then, mortality levels in the hospitals were low and the hospitals did not merit their reputation of being 'gateways to death' or as institutions 'which positively did harm'.