人口与消费对二氧化碳排放的动态影响——基于变参数模型的实证分析

近年来,随着全球气候的不断变暖,二氧化碳减排问题已经引起了世界性的关注。中国作为世界上最大的碳排放国,必须逐步降低经济发展过程中的碳排放。基于此,利用1978～2009年的相关数据和变参数模型,分析了人口数量和居民消费对我国二氧化碳排放的动态影响。结果表明,人口、消费与二氧化碳排放之间存在长期稳定的关系,二者对碳排放均有比较显著的影响。从总体来看,人口对碳排放的影响弹性要高于消费对碳排放的弹性,但是近年来两者之间的差距越来越小,说明消费对二氧化碳排放的影响力日益增大;随着时间波动,人口与消费对碳排放的影响弹性会呈现规律性的变化,并且可以将其划分为三个明显的阶段。依据上述结论,文章提出了相关政策建议,以减少由人口和消费带来的二氧化碳排放。     

Population and global warming with and without CO2 targets

The sensitivity of future global warming to variable population growth rates is reexamined as part of an ongoing debate over the extent to which climate change should be added to the list of concerns surrounding population growth. The UN 1992 low, medium and high population projections out to the year 2150 are run through an integrated climate-economics model which allows the effect of population variability to be traced through to CO₂ emissions, concentrations, warming and economic growth.We treat separately the cases of population's role in global warming, first without and then with specified atmospheric targets. Without targets, modeled CO₂ concentrations in year 2150 show great variability ranging from 600 ppm (UN low projection) to 1375 ppm (UN high projection). Such numbers suggest the potential effect of variable population growth on climate is large and that population policy options carry with them a significant, longterm, global warming mitigation component. The range of global warming achieved is not as sensitive to population because of weakened radiative absorption at high CO₂ levels. With respect to targets, with low population, stabilization at 650–750 ppm is achieved with relatively modest cuts in carbon intensity. Stabilization at 350–450 ppms requires steep cuts in emissions that are only weakly affected by the full range of variable population growth rates. Stabilization at 550 ppm is thus a transitional point between these end-member roles for population. Future work needs to address cost issues which could change this assessment of the role of population with CO₂ targets.     

家庭人口老化对碳排放的影响——基于家庭微观视角的实证研究

人口老龄化和全球气候变暖已经成为世界各国共同关注的议题。在我国人口老龄化日益加剧、环境问题也逐渐引起社会各界广泛关注的背景下,家庭层面人口老化与碳排放之间关系值得深入研究。文章从微观家庭结构出发,对家庭内部人口老化与碳排放之间关系进行理论分析,利用中国家庭金融调查数据库(CHFS)2013年的截面数据对人口老化与碳排放的关系进行实证研究。研究结果表明家庭的老化特征与家庭碳排放之间呈现负相关,家庭的老化特征有助于减轻家庭的碳排放水平,老年人与年轻人共同生活的主干家庭更加"节能环保",这一结论与人们的一般感性认识有所不同。因此,应当鼓励年轻人与老年人共同居住,通过老年人的生活方式和消费习惯影响家庭的消费行为和消费结构,使家庭朝着节约环保型转变。本文的结论同时也表明人口老龄化产生的并非都是消极影响,其对社会的影响需要进行全面评估以积极应对老龄社会的到来。     

On Development,Demography and Climate Change: The End of the World as We Know it?

This paper comments on the issue of global warming and climate change, in an attempt to provide fresh perspective. Essentially, five main arguments are made. First, that the process of modern economic development has been based on the burning of fossil fuels, and that this will continue to apply for the foreseeable future. Second, that in large part due to momentum in economic and demographic processes, it is inevitable that there will be a major rise in atmospheric CO₂ during the present century. Third, that available data on global temperatures suggest strongly that the coming warming will be appreciably faster than anything that humanity has experienced during historical times. Moreover, especially in a system that is being forced, the chance of an abrupt change in climate happening must be rated as fair. Fourth, that while it is impossible to attach precise probabilities to different scenarios, the range of plausible unpleasant climate outcomes seems at least as great as the range of more manageable ones. The consequences of future climate change may be considerable; indeed, they could be almost inconceivable—with several negative changes occurring simultaneously and to cumulative adverse effect. There is an urgent need to improve ways of thinking about what could happen. Fifth, the paper maintains that the human response to other difficult ‘long’ threats—such as that posed by HIV/AIDS—reveals a broadly analogous sequence of social reactions (e.g. denial, avoidance, recrimination) to that which is unfolding with respect to carbon emissions and climate change. Therefore the view expressed here is that major behavioral change to limit world carbon emissions is unlikely in the foreseeable future, and that the broad sway of future events is probably now set to run its course.This paper is a personal assessment of what is occurring with respect to the subject of global warming and climate change. Nevertheless it is an attempt to examine the topic objectively. The paper tries to concentrate on the essentials—from both the social and the environmental sciences—and, quite deliberately, it presents basic data on the subject for the reader's own consideration. The paper's subtitle is taken from a television program broadcast in January 2005 as part of UK Channel Four's War on Terra season. I thank Tim Forsyth, Chris Wilson, and especially Brian O'Neill for their help and advice. However, and most certainly, the usual disclaimer applies.     

Energy consumption and limits to global emissions of carbon dioxide: Australia and the world

Attempts to limit global emissions of the greenhouse gases and in particular carbon dioxide must take account of the rapidly increasing populations and the continuing increase in the per-capita consumption of fossil fuels in much of the world. For many countries to achieve the target of a 20% cut in carbon dioxide emissions based on 1988 consumptions, far larger per-capita reductions are necessary. For Australia the cut is approximately 40%. The increases in global emissions of carbon dioxide resulting from the attainment of only very modest per-capita consumptions by the developing countries will far outweigh any reductions achieved by the developed world.Support for this project from the Australian Research Council is gratefully acknowledged.     

Intergenerational transfers in US county-level CO2 emissions, 2007

Research has shown that increases in carbon emissions and resulting climate change are not driven by population size alone, but also associated with industrialization, urbanization, and economic development. Further, industrialization and development may, in part, be driven by changing demographic structure, and in particular the process of population aging. Fluctuations in age composition shape aggregate production and consumption. Viewed through this lens, the carbon dioxide emissions of an analytical unit (county, province, state, nation) can be considered a product of its age composition. This analysis tests several demographic theories of age-specific production and consumption on US county-level carbon dioxide emissions. Using a modified STIRPAT framework, econometric estimates identify a positive correlation between county-level labor force participation and total carbon dioxide emissions. These effects are a result of general economic activity as opposed to growth only in energy intensive industrial sectors, a relationship that is widely hypothesized but under-developed in carbon emission estimates. In addition, results show larger households are associated with lower aggregate emissions, confirming the hypothesis that areas of declining household size will experience higher future emissions. In general, this research demonstrates the importance of adding nuance to emission estimates by integrating demographic dimensions beyond population size and growth.     

The Stern Review on the Economic Effects of Climate Change

In a study of the economics of climate change commissioned by the British government, released on 30 October, the former World Bank chief economist Sir Nicholas Stern presents a vigorously argued case for early curtailment of greenhouse gas emissions and proposes mitigation strategies that appear to offer highly favorable benefit‐cost ratios. An excerpt from the Executive Summary of the Stern Review, concerned with the nature and magnitude of the deleterious economic consequences of anticipated climate change, is printed below. The principal scientific reviews of knowledge of climate change, its consequences, and mitigation strategies are the (roughly) quinquennial reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)—the work of hundreds of lead authors, subjected in turn to elaborate peer review and line‐by‐line scrutiny by interested governments. They represent a broad, though not total, expert consensus. The third IPCC assessment was issued in 2001; the fourth, already in draft, will be released next year. The Stern Review draws heavily on this scientific underpinning, but goes further than the IPCC exercise in computing economic values for the projected changes and costing out remedial policy responses. More forthright in style and emphatic in its conclusions, it reads as a resounding call to international action. The Review explores the implications of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases being capped at 550ppm (parts per million), double the preindustrial level, an objective it argues is feasible. That concentration would be reached by 2050 at current emission rates, or by 2035 if emissions rise as expected. The resulting warming, it believes, would be 2‐5°C, roughly in accord with the IPCC's third‐assessment estimates (see the Documents section of PDR 27, no. 1 for the IPCC projections). The positive feedbacks identified in some recent studies, generated by processes such as release of methane from permafrost, could lead to still higher temperatures. The forecast effects described are by now familiar, though no less grim for being so: species extinctions, expanding disease zones, reductions in surface water availability, coastal flooding, ocean acidification, and so on. The Review translates these effects into economic losses, adjusting for risk, using Monte Carlo simulation applied to an integrated assessment model (the so‐called PAGE 2002 model). The exercise, requiring many heroic—and often contestable—assumptions, produces the most quoted figures in the report: that climate change “will reduce welfare by an amount equivalent to a reduction in consumption per head of between 5 and 20%”—now and into the future. The absolute magnitude of those projected economic losses is made arbitrarily large by their permanence. Typical benefit‐cost calculations applied to appraisal of development projects convert such long‐term trajectories into a present value using a discount rate comparable to a market interest rate or some (lower) assumed rate of time preference. The Stern Review, however, argues that any discounting is ethically inappropriate for this global issue: “if a future generation will be present, we suppose that it has the same claim on our ethical attention as the current one” (p. 31). The only exception is an allowance for the possibility that future generations are not present—through human extinction—which is held to justify a minuscule discount rate of 0.1 percent per annum (p. 161). The percentage economic losses from climate change appear less daunting if set against the recent pace of expansion in the world economy. Real per capita income growth since 1990 has averaged about 1.5 percent per year worldwide, and about 3 percent in developing countries. In such a regime, a 5 percent one‐time drop to a lower expansion path is no more than a two‐ or three‐year delay in attaining a given income level. For China and India, whose economies are doubling in size each decade, even a 20 percent reduction in income would be a mere hiccough on the path to affluence—hardly enough to motivate major shifts in lifestyle ambitions. The dire repercussions on global environments of a greenhouse warming at the upper end of the forecast range are poorly captured by those percentages. Demography has a marginal place in the Review. The underlying IPCC emission scenarios incorporate expected population growth, using the UN medium projections. Many of the climate‐change effects incur costs that are similarly magnified by population growth. One‐sixth of the world's population is “threatened” by water scarcities; 1 in 20 people may be displaced by a rising sea level; mortality may increase from vector‐borne diseases and from malnutrition linked to income losses. The later part of the Review is concerned with mitigation and adaptation strategies. It lays out an ambitious set of policies for transition to a low‐carbon economy that could stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations over the next several decades. By 2050, emissions would have to be 25 percent below today's and emissions per unit of GDP 75 percent below. In perhaps the most problematic part of the exercise the Review asserts that such cuts could be achieved at a cost of only around 1 percent of annual global GDP—implying that investment in mitigation should be strongly favored on straightforward economic grounds. (This figure, like others in the Review, is acknowledged to lie within a substantial envelope of uncertainty—here a range of ?1.0 percent to +3.5 percent of global GDP (p. 212), or, drawing on a wider range of models, ?4 percent to +15 percent (p. 241).) In the decades before the investment pays off, adverse consequences of the warming trends already underway must be dealt with by adaptation, such as through better disaster preparedness, lessening the vulnerability of infrastructure, and risk‐pooling measures. The excerpt is from pp. iii–iv and vi–xi. The full Stern Review (579 pages), the executive summary, and the commissioned background papers are available online at « http://www.hm‐treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_index.cfm ». A hard copy of the Review will be issued by Cambridge University Press.     

The greenhouse gas methane (CH4): Sources and sinks,the impact of population growth,possible interventions

Methane (CH₄) is one of the trace gases in the atmosphere that is considered to play a major role in what is called the greenhouse effect. There are six major sources of atmospheric methane: emission from anaerobic decomposition in (1) natural wetlands; (2) paddy rice fields; (3) emission from livestock production systems (including intrinsic fermentation and animal waste); (4) biomass burning (including forest fires, charcoal combustion, and firewood burning); (5) anaerobic decomposition of organic waste in landfills; and (6) fossil methane emission during the exploration and transport of fossil fuels. Obviously, human activities play a major role in increasing methane emissions from most of these sources. Especially the worldwide expansion of paddy rice cultivation, livestock production and fossil fuel exploration have increased the methane concentration in the atmosphere. Several data sets help estimate atmospheric methane concentration up to 160,000 years back. Major sources and sinks of present-day methane emission and their relative contribution to the global methane balance demonstrate great uncertainties in the identification and quantification of individual sources and sinks. Most recent methane projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for 2025 and 2100 are discussed and used to estimate the contribution of population growth to future methane emission. Finally the paper discusses options and restrictions of reducing anthropogenic methane emissions to the atmosphere.     

我国人口-经济-二氧化碳排放的关联研究

通过全国1995～2008年各省区二氧化碳排放和人口发展状况对比发现,人口与二氧化碳排放之间并不呈现简单的正相关关系。本文引入经济系统对人口与二氧化碳排放之间的关系进行关联分析。研究发现,在短时期内,人口增长对二氧化碳排放的影响不可忽视,但从长远来看,经济增长对二氧化碳排放影响更为重要。值得注意的是,虽然人口和经济增长是二氧化碳排放变化的原因,但当滞后期延长,人口和经济系统之间将互为因果,使得人口和二氧化碳排放的关系将更为复杂。     

Causal Relationships among Population and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

The carbon dioxide emissions of the provinces would be calculated from 1995 to 2008.And we compare the provinces’ carbon dioxide emissions and population development.We found that the relationship between population and carbon dioxide emissions are not a simple correlation.In order to probe the relation,we introduce the economic variable into the research,take advantage the cointegration analysis and Granger causality test.The paper found that the population and economic growth is the main reason of carbon dioxide emission change.In short run the population growth would impact the carbon dioxide emissions,and increase in carbon dioxide emissions cannot be simply attributed to overpopulation,economic growth impact on carbon dioxide emissions more strongly.     

我国家庭动态变化对二氧化碳排放的影响分析

人口数量及其增长率常常被认为是二氧化碳排放增长的重要推动力之一,而家庭变动对二氧化碳排放的影响往往被忽视。基于此,采用VAR模型,通过脉冲响应函数来考察人口和家庭变动对二氧化碳排放的动态影响,并用方差分解法揭示其相互影响程度及差异。结果表明,家庭层面变量对二氧化碳排放的影响远大于人口总量对二氧化碳排放的影响。考察人口总量、平均家庭规模以及家庭户变动三者对二氧化碳排放影响的贡献差异发现,平均家庭规模对二氧化碳排放的影响大于家庭户变动对二氧化碳排放的影响,且大于人口总量对二氧化碳排放的影响。相对于人口总量,以家庭户为视角来研究人口因素对二氧化碳的影响更为重要。因此,在节能减排的政策建议中,应当更多倡导推广有利于可持续发展的家庭户模式,家庭减排对于减排目标的实现将具有更大的潜力。     

人口结构、城镇化与碳排放——基于跨国面板数据的实证研究

文章基于美国、中国、日本、英国等9国1961～2010年的面板数据对人口年龄结构、城镇化与碳排放之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明,人口规模、人均GDP、二氧化碳排放强度、化石能源占能源消费总量的比重及人口结构与全球碳排放显著相关。此外,人口城镇化率与碳排放的关系呈倒U形,即在人口城镇化的早期会促进二氧化碳的排放,但随着城镇化的进一步扩大则会抑制碳排放;而人口的年龄结构,尤其是人口的老龄化程度对碳排放量的影响则具有U形的特点,即在人口老化的初期由于老年人群的消费模式会减少碳排放,但当人口老龄化进一步加剧后,老年人对医疗护理等方面的需求增多,以致需要更多的经济活动支持这部分开支,因而会造成碳排放的增加。     

Population, climate, and electricity use in the Arctic integrated analysis of Alaska community data

Towns and villages of Arctic Alaska experience substantial year-to-year variations in weather, overlaid on longer-term warming trends. Community populations often are changing as well, reflecting highly variable net migration, overlaid on longer-term trends of natural increase. Both environmental and population change affect Arctic communities?? energy needs. Energy needs in the Arctic tend to be high and expensive, posing challenges to communities?? long-term viability. In this paper, we analyze relationships between weather, population, and one important measured component of energy??community-level electricity consumption. Electricity for the most part is generated locally from diesel fuel, which has a local environmental footprint as well. Taking a new approach to the integrated analysis of climate and human-dimensions data, we apply mixed-effects modeling to time series of electricity, weather, population, and price indicators across 42 Alaska towns and villages. Population dominates annual variations in electricity use, showing both general and community-specific effects that are strongest in the regional centers. Weather also affects electricity use, but for different reasons than it does in more urban areas to the south. Given population stability, a warming climate should lead to lower electricity demand. Population growth can override climate effects, however. Net of population, weather, and price, there has been an upward trend in per capita electricity use.     

Population aging and environmental quality in OECD countries: evidence from sulfur dioxide emissions data

Recent literature has suggested that population aging may shape energy demand and related emissions. Recent scholarship also suggests that emissions play a role in contemporary climate change and, as such, understanding the effect of population compositional change has considerable environmental policy importance. The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the macro-level relationship between population aging and emissions of sulfur dioxide. We extend a standard macroeconomic estimation function by including the age composition of the population. In doing so, we separate, for the first time in the literature on aging and the environment, the life-cycle dimension of the age structure from its cohort dimension. We utilize data representing a balanced panel of 25 OECD countries during the period from 1970 to 2000. Consistent with our expectations, we find that societies with a low proportion of young and a high proportion of senior citizens emit more sulfur dioxide. At the same time, our results suggest that a high proportion of individuals born before 1960 is positively correlated to national sulfur dioxide emissions. Our study contributes to understanding of past emission patterns in OECD countries and the findings may allow for improvements in future emission projections.     

Replacement Migration: A Questionable Tactic for Delaying the Inevitable Effects of Fertility Transition

This article critiques a recent U.N. Population Division report, Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? The report explores the use of increased immigration to bolster future population size and change age distribution patterns in a group of developed countries. Fertility rate declines and lengthening life expectancies associated with demographic transition inevitably yield an aging population and a falling potential support ratio (PSR), a situation which some demographers and economists view with alarm. As the U.N. report itself suggests, replacement migration can only temporarily delay population aging and decline. These issues are ultimately better addressed through changes in retirement policy. Population projections should be used only with great caution in designing long-term demographic policy. In particular, some assumptions used to make the U.N. projections are questionable, and even minor changes in those assumptions would yield substantially different policy conclusions. Replacement migration also raises difficult environmental questions by moving large numbers of people from low to high per-capita consumption nations. Modest population decline, particularly in more developed countries, may have significant local and global environmental and climate policy benefits.

     

Examining the Impact of Demographic Factors on Air Pollution

This study adds to the emerging literature examining empirically the link between population size, other demographic factors and pollution. We contribute by using more reliable estimation techniques and examine two air pollutants. By considering sulfur dioxide, we become the first study to explicitly examine the impact of demographic factors on a pollutant other than carbon dioxide at the cross-national level. We also take into account the urbanization rate and the average household size neglected by many prior cross-national econometric studies. For carbon dioxide emissions we find evidence that population increases are matched by proportional increases in emissions while a higher urbanization rate and lower average household size increase emissions. For sulfur dioxide emissions, we find a U-shaped relationship, with the population-emissions elasticity rising at higher population levels. Urbanization and average household size are not found to be significant determinants of sulfur dioxide emissions. For both pollutants, our results suggest that an increasing share of global emissions will be accounted for by developing countries. Implications for the environmental Kuznets curve literature are described and directions for further work identified.     

Assessing the temporal stability of the population/environment relationship in comparative perspective: a cross-national panel study of carbon dioxide emissions, 1960–2005

This study examines the temporal stability of the population/environment relationship. We analyze panel data from 1960 to 2005 to determine whether the national-level association between population and carbon dioxide emissions has remained stable, declined, or intensified in recent decades. Results indicate that population size has a large and stable positive association with anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions. The findings of temporal stability generally hold for both developed countries and less-developed countries. The authors conclude that population, in tandem with other social drivers, remains an important consideration for research that addresses the human dimensions of global environmental change.     

How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?

Although integrated assessment models (IAM) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) consider population as one of the root causes of greenhouse gas emissions, how population dynamics affect climate change is still under debate. Population is rarely mentioned in policy debates on climate change. Studies in the past decade have added significantly to understanding the mechanisms and complexity of population and climate interactions. In addition to the growth of total population size, research shows that changes in population composition (i.e. age, urban–rural residence, and household structure) generate substantial effects on the climate system. Moreover, studies by the impact, vulnerability and adaptation (IAV) community also reveal that population dynamics are critical in the near term for building climate change resilience and within adaptation strategies. This paper explores how global population dynamics affect carbon emissions and climate systems, how recent demographic trends matter to worldwide efforts to adapt to climate change, and how population policies could make differences for climate change mitigation and adaptation.     

Global Warming: New Scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme to review the state of knowledge about human‐induced climate change and assess possible responses. Most of its activities are conducted by three working groups, concerned respectively with scientific aspects of the climate system, with the vulnerability of human and natural systems to climate change, and with options for mitigating that change. The major IPCC reports have been highly detailed statements of scientific consensus on changes in the climate system, issued at roughly five‐year intervals. These reflect the input of some hundreds of scientists, with drafts scrutinized by expert reviewers, revised to attain consensus, and eventually approved (or “accepted”) by the full Panel. The first such assessment, published in 1990, was influential in formulating the Framework Convention on Climate Change adopted at the 1992 Rio conference. The second assessment report (SAR), Climate Change 1995, produced the widely cited estimate that global warming would raise average temperatures by 1°–3.5°C by 2100, with a “best estimate” of 2°C, and produce a sea‐level rise of 0.13 – 0.94 meters. That report took the further step of explicitly linking the warming to anthropogenic (human‐caused) emissions of greenhouse gases. Its cautious conclusion: “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate.” Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis is Working Group I's contribution to the third IPCC assessment. The document was finalized at the Group's meeting in Shanghai in January 2001. A brief (18‐page) “Summary for Policymakers” was also released at this meeting, distilling the findings of the full report and putting them in more accessible language. Two sections of this summary document, presenting the Group's projections of atmospheric temperature trends and sea‐level rises, are reproduced below. The procedure followed was to assemble hypothetical alternative combinations of future greenhouse gas emissions in the form of emission scenarios, which were fed into large‐scale climate models to produce estimates of future temperature and sea‐level trends. For the third assessment report the scenarios used were set out in the IPCC Working Group Ill's Special Report on Emission Scenarios (March 2000), and are referred to below as the “SRES scenarios.” There are 35 of them in all. They fall into six groups, detailed in the text box, from each of which an illustrative case is plotted in the charts. (The shaded areas in the charts are envelopes spanning the 35 scenarios. Some additional details shown in the original charts have been omitted here for clarity.) The SAR scenarios are referred to as IS92. The major difference from the second assessment is in the projected temperature increase, which is now put at 1.4°–5.8°C (or in Fahrenheit degrees, 2.5°–10.4°). The projected sea‐level rise is slightly smaller, at 0.09 – 0.88 meters. There is also a strengthening of the statement on anthropogenic causes, which now reads: “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the [atmospheric] warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.” The report notes that even with stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions, there may be continuing climate effects beyond the twenty‐first century. One such effect is the “weakening of ocean thermohaline circulation “—the ocean currents that, for example, transport heat into high northern‐hemisphere latitudes and moderate the coastal climates of those regions. The summary report is available online at the IPCC's website, www.ipcc.ch . The complete third assessment report, covering also the conclusions of Working Groups II and III (particularly on the social and economic costs of forecast climate change), will be released shortly.     

人口结构变动对中国碳排放绩效的影响研究

本文首先使用非径向、非角度的SBM-Undesirable模型对我国30个省（市）区2000—2012年的碳排放绩效进行了测度,并利用Tobit模型进一步分析我国人口结构变动对各省（市）区碳排放绩效的影响。结果显示：（1）在样本考察期内,我国的碳排放绩效在逐渐提高,东部地区的碳排放绩效远高于全国及中西部地区的碳排放绩效,中部次之,西部最低;（2）劳动人口数量和受教育程度对我国的碳排放绩效具有正向的驱动作用,家庭规模的小型化、老龄化人口数量、人口城市化水平和经济增长对我国碳排放绩效的提高起阻碍作用。