Do incentives matter? – Evaluation of a family planning program in India

Indian Family Planning programs in the past haveintroduced a number of approaches such as providingmonetary benefits, and motivational programs toimprove contraceptive use among rural illiteratewomen. Under the Ammanpettai family welfare program,the Melatur PHC administered three program typesinvolving a combination of monetary and motivationalapproaches to improve contraceptive use in threetreatment areas. The program was introduced duringJanuary 1989 and was simultaneously discontinued aftera period of two years. The present evaluation wasconducted in 1994. Data from a random sample of 933non-sterilized women at the time of social surveyusing a questionnaire approach is used in this study. The implementation of incentive programs in asocio-economically homogenous population has resultedin an increase in the likelihood of current ofcontraceptive use. The results of this study suggestthat motivational programs are more likely to improvelong term use of temporary family planning methodsthan cash incentive programs. One implication of ourfinding is that motivational programs should provide peer based family planning education and training incommunity work to contact persons who make door todoor visits to promote family planning programs.     

Welfare Participation and Time Use in China

Using the newly available China Family Panel Studies 2010 survey data and a propensity score matching method, this study examines the possible influence of participation in China’s primary welfare program, Dibao, on household head’s time use pattern in both urban and rural areas. We find that Dibao lowered recipients’ time spent on various leisure and social activities and increased their time spent on unspecified activities or being idle for both urban and rural residents. Urban Dibao recipients also tended to spend less time on education activities, while rural Dibao recipients spent less time on work activities but more time on personal care and household activities. These findings provide pioneering evidence on the possible link between welfare participation and time use patterns in the global welfare literature. As Dibao continues to expand, the empirical evidence from this article suggests that Dibao might have some unintended adverse effects on recipients, including less time spent on leisure and social activities, reduced time on work and education activities, and more time on being idle. Future reforms of Dibao and its supplementary policies and programs need to consider how best to promote both the economic and holistic well-being of the participants.

     

India: orientation camps boost new motivational strategy; group discussion on the social aspects of the family welfare program

About 40,000 orientation camps for influential village leaders were planned to reactivate India's family welfare programme. Each camp averaged 40 participants, and total participation was estimated to be 1.6 million. Emphasis is placed on interpersonal communication and group communication. Special informative and motivational materials; film shows and folk-art programs were provided at the camps. This endeavor has resulted in improving the climate in relation to family planning. Approximately 100,000 community health volunteers are involved in these efforts. A group discussion organized on the family welfare program in September 22, 1979 brought out the following issues: 1) the use of incentives/disincentives in persuading people to accept family planning; 2) predominant factors in the rural areas such as malnutrition which undermine population programs; 3) need for involving voluntary organization in the family welfare program, in addition to creating an awareness of the demographic situation through educational channels; 4) introduction of some insurance schemes for old-age security; 5) approaching family planning programs at the macro level to improve the economic situation, and at micro level to intensify motivational aspects of the program; and 6) more competent handling of the vasectomy program by trained experts.     

Who Receives Food Stamps During Adulthood? Analyzing Repeatable Events With Incomplete Event Histories

Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) from 1968 to 2005, we estimate the cumulative probability that young adults in the United States will receive food stamps during adulthood, and examine how that probability varies with an individual’s income and education at age 25 as well as by race and gender. We find that the probability of first food stamp receipt as an adult declines sharply with age, indicating that most adult recipients do so by age 40. Also, those receiving food stamps in early adulthood are likely to receive them again. For these reasons, and because food stamp receipt is a repeatable event, life table analyses that include individuals who are not observed until after they become exposed to the risk of food stamp receipt (whom we label “late entrants”) are likely to overstate cumulative participation during adulthood. For example, one often-cited study included individuals who enter their sample after age 20 (late entrants) and report that 50.8% of 20-year-olds are recipients by age 65. In contrast, when we exclude late entrants, we find that 39.2% of 20-year-olds and 29.7% of 25-year-olds receive benefits during adulthood.     

Welfare Receipt Among Children Living with Grandparents

Considerable increases in the numbers of children living with grandparents have prompted concerns over their economic well-being and grandparents’ use of welfare programs. Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, I profile the economic well-being of children living with grandparents and estimate the likelihood of receiving two welfare programs: food stamps and Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). Findings suggest that identifying the exact living arrangements of children is pivotal to understanding differences in economic disadvantage and welfare receipt among children living with grandparents. Although children in grandmother-only, no parent present families are the most likely to be poor, they are not the children most likely to receive welfare. The children most likely to receive welfare live with their single mothers and grandparents in three-generation households.     

The effects of density and urban residence on voter turnout

The rate of voting in cities of the U.S. tends to be lower than one would expect when compared to nationwide voter participation rates. The hypothesis in question here is whether high population density and urbanness have a dampening effect on the likelihood of voting by persons living under such conditions. This question is examined by relating county voting rates in recent U.S. Presidential elections to various types of county population density, while controlling for fifteen potentially contaminating variables. The hypothesis that population density reduces voter turnout cannot be rejected on the basis of the test. There is a small but significant negative relationship between the press of population — represented by the population per square mile and urbanness — and voter turnout, even when the various control variables are present. More immediate types of density, such as housing unit and room density, appear to be insignificant. Possible reasons for the results are discussed.     

Thinking about several problems of the research of our family planning strategy]

On the basis of 1982 census data, it is estimated that from 1987-1997 13 million women will enter the age of marriage and child-bearing each year. The tasks of keeping the population size around 1.2 billion by the year 2000 is arduous. Great efforts have to be made to continue encouraging one child/couple, and to pursue the current plans and policies and maintain strict control over fertility. Keeping population growth in pace with economic growth, environment, ecological balance, availability of per capita resources, education programs, employment capability, health services, maternal and child care, social welfare and social security should be a component of the long term development strategy of the country. Family planning is a comprehensive program which involves long cycles and complicated factors, viewpoints of expediency in guiding policy and program formulation for short term benefits are inappropriate. The emphasis of family planning program strategy should be placed on the rural areas where the majority of population reside. Specifically, the major aspects of strategic thrusts should be the linkage between policy implementation and reception, between family planning publicity and changes of ideation on fertility; the integrated urban and rural program management relating to migration and differentiation of policy towards minority population and areas in different economic development stages. In order to achieve the above strategies, several measures are proposed. (1) strengthening family planning program and organization structure; (2) providing information on population and contraception; (3) establishing family planning program network for infiltration effects; (4) using government financing, taxation, loan, social welfare and penalty to regulate fertility motivations; (5) improving the system of target allocation and data reporting to facilitate program implementation; (6) strengthening population projection and policy research; (7) and strengthening training of family planning personnel to improve program efficiency.     

Environmental quality and fertility: the effects of plant density,species richness,and plant diversity on fertility limitation

The relationship between the environment and population has been of concern for centuries, and climate change is making this an even more pressing area of study. In poor rural areas, declining environmental conditions may elicit changes in family-related behaviors. This paper explores this relationship in rural Nepal looking specifically at how plant density, species richness, and plant diversity are related to women’s fertility limitation behavior. Taking advantage of a unique data set with detailed micro-level environmental measures and individual fertility behavior, I link geographically weighted measures of flora at one point in time to women’s later contraceptive use as a way to examine this complex relationship. I find a significant, positive relationship between plant density, species richness, and plant diversity and the timing of contraceptive use. Women in poor environmental conditions are less likely to terminate childbearing, or do so later, and therefore more likely to have larger families.     

Population density,urban centrality,and agricultural intensification in Jordan

This paper explores the relationship between population growth, agricultural production, and urban development. Ongoing debate in the literature regarding the relationship between population and economic development is restricted by the limited availability of time series data and the difficulty of evaluating causality using cross-sectional data. This analysis uses the special case of Jordan with its massive refugee flows to evaluate the influence of a sudden and exogenous change in population in urban areas on the intensification of agricultural production. Spearman Rank Order correlations are calculated from time series data to show that the districts which experienced the most rapid population growth and increases in population density also exhibited the largest increases in agricultural intensity. Cross-sectional analysis in which measures of agricultural intensification were predicted by population density and urbanization factors reveals a significant interaction between density and urban centrality, where centrality is an indicator of the accessibility of urban goods to rural communities. The results suggest that population density has a strongly positive effect on agricultural intensity in areas with few urban goods and services available, whereas the influence of population density on agricultural intensity is substantially reduced in areas with a greater diversity of urban goods and services.This article is based on a paper presented at the 1992 Meeting of the Southern Demographics Association, Charleston, SC, 15–17 October 1992.     

城镇化进程中的人口流动与城镇新增贫困人口问题分析

在城镇化的过程中,农村人口净流向城镇。这一方面推动城镇和农村的发展,另一方面带来城镇贫困人口的增加。由农村流入城镇的人口其贫困发生率大致在3%以上。为预防和保障人口流动中的城镇新增贫困人口,应该采取措施分类引导人口的城镇化,建立和完善进入城镇农民的社会保障体系,积极发展城镇服务业等第三产业,避免过度的城市化带来城镇贫困问题的扩大。     

Urban Form,Heart Disease,and Geography: A Case Study in Composite Index Formation and Bayesian Spatial Modeling

Recent studies indicate a relationship between measures of urban form as applied to urban and suburban areas, and obesity, a risk factor for heart disease. Measures of urban form for exurban and rural areas are considerably scarce; such measures could prove useful in measuring relationships between urban form and both mortality and morbidity in such areas. In modeling area-level mortality, geographic relationships between counties warrant consideration because geographically adjacent areas tend to have more in common than areas farther from each other. We modify county-level indices of urban form found in the literature so that they can be applied to exurban and rural counties. We then use these indices in a Bayesian spatial model that accounts for spatial autocorrelation to determine if there is a relationship between such measures and cardiovascular disease mortality for white males age 35 and older for the time period 1999–2001. Issues related to the formation and usefulness of the indices, and issues related to the spatial model, are discussed. Maps of observed and expected relative risk of mortality are presented. Jimmie Givens retired from his service.     

The Changing Safety Net for Low-Income Parents and Their Children: Structural or Cyclical Changes in Income Support Policy?

Refundable tax credits and food assistance are the largest transfer programs available to able-bodied working poor and near-poor families in the United States, and simultaneous participation in these programs has more than doubled since the early 2000s. To understand this growth, we construct a series of two-year panels from the 1981–2013 waves of the Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement to estimate the effect of state labor-market conditions, federal and state transfer program policy choices, and household demographics governing joint participation in food and refundable tax credit programs. Overall, changing policy drives much of the increase in the simultaneous, biennial use of food assistance and refundable tax credits. This stands in stark contrast from the factors accounting for the growth in food assistance alone, where cyclical and structural labor market factors account for at least one-half of the growth, and demographics play a more prominent role. Moreover, since 2000, the business cycle factors as the leading determinant in biennial participation decisions in food programs and refundable tax credits, suggesting a recent strengthening in the relationship between economic conditions and transfer programs.     

Developing an Index to Measure Sub-municipal Level Urban Sprawl

The present study aims to develop an index composed of different spatial variables to measure the urban sprawl levels of a municipality located in Southern Spain. According to the findings, urban sprawl can be measured not only on the metropolitan level but also on a more detailed and precise level, such as sub-municipal. A group of experts chosen for their suitability in measuring urban sprawl select six spatial variables (population density, net residential density, coverage ratio, land use types, percentage of residential land use, and average year of construction). These variables are aggregated using Choquet integral, a technique that combines interactions between those variables providing greater coherence to the complexity that is inherent in the creation of composite sprawl indexes. This methodology has been demonstrated to be valid and appropriate in evaluating urban expansion at sub-municipal level, but can also be applied to other scales once it is clearly a phenomenon in which interaction between criteria exists. The resulting composite index allows the assignment of different levels of sprawl to the urban areas consistent with their morphology and landscape.     

城市老年人养老“时间储蓄”的实证研究——老年社会参与的视角

社会参与是老年人的基本需求和权利,健康长寿时代养老＂时间储蓄＂是老年社会参与领域出现的新实践。目前城市老年人对养老＂时间储蓄＂的知晓度较低,参与意愿仍有提升的空间。随着我国经济社会的发展、人口预期寿命的延长,老年社会保障制度的日臻完善,城市中低年龄老年人参与养老＂时间储蓄＂的需求和意愿较高,却在一定程度上受到健康、收入、文化技能以及家庭、社区环境的制约。促进养老＂时间储蓄＂常态化制度化是一项社会系统工程,需要动员政府和全社会的共同力量,营造我为人人、人人为我的社会风尚,加强老年教育和终身学习,引入地区差异的视角,通过完善政策和实施项目的途经,积极发挥老年人在社区和家庭中的作用。     

Massive drive to reenergize the family planning programme

A massive drive has been launched throughout India in an effort to reenergize the family planning program. The Prime Minister has made a special appeal to the nation from radio and television networks and through the press to adopt the small family norm as a way of life. The Chief Ministers and the Health Ministers in the States have made similar appeals to the people and the doctors. The current drive was preceded by 18 months of concentrated efforts to vitalize the family planning program. The change in nomenclature from "family planning" to "family welfare" created some misunderstanding regarding the government's own commitment to the program, but it is now widely understood that while family welfare aims at the total welfare of the family, family planning is an essential part of it. The government has tried to involve all sectors of society in program efforts. The mass media is now focusing attention on "family welfare" almost continuously. In villages, a large-scale program of organizing education camps of opinion leaders is now underway. The rural health scheme, initiated in October 1977, promises to bring about increased participation of the people in village programs. 54,000 community health workers have already started serving the rural population in their areas. In 2-3 years there will be 1 trained community health worker in every Indian village.     

Childbearing Across Partnerships in Australia,the United States,Norway, and Sweden

This article compares mothers’ experience of having children with more than one partner in two liberal welfare regimes (the United States and Australia) and two social democratic regimes (Sweden and Norway). We use survey-based union and birth histories in Australia and the United States and data from national population registers in Norway and Sweden to estimate the likelihood of experiencing childbearing across partnerships at any point in the childbearing career. We find that births with new partners constitute a substantial proportion of all births in each country we study. Despite quite different arrangements for social welfare, the determinants of childbearing across partnerships are very similar. Women who had their first birth at a very young age or who are less well-educated are most likely to have children with different partners. The educational gradient in childbearing across partnerships is also consistently negative across countries, particularly in contrast to educational gradients in childbearing with the same partner. The risk of childbearing across partnerships increased dramatically in all countries from the 1980s to the 2000s, and educational differences also increased, again, in both liberal and social democratic welfare regimes.     

We must pay attention to the difference between the original intention and the current status of family planning]

Due to imperfections in the current family planning (FP) policy, and the differences un program implementation in urban and rural areas, the fertility of the urban population with higher IQ scores is under control but this is not the case for the rural population. Among rural couples, one child is rare and two or three are commonplace, while in cities over 70% of couples are having one child. In the metropolitan cities, this figure is about 90%. In the rural areas, provision of education is a serious problem because of insufficient resources, a lack of qualified teachers and inadequate facilities. At the present, at least 3 million school age children in rural areas can not go to primary school. Besides there is a big contrast in FP practice between Han nationality and minorities. Population growth is basically under control among the more advanced Han nationally but not among the less advances minority nationalities. This growth rate among the minority population was about 50.27/1000 in the past five years, which is alarming. Furthermore, the couples given opportunity to have a second child are often those whose first child had birth defects or is mentally retarded, whereas couples with a normal child can have only one child. This has become a vicious circle, since subsequent children are more likely to have the same birth defects. It was discovered from a 1983-85 survey that the prevalence of birth defects was 12.8/1000. The current situation is that the fertility of urban, educated, and healthy people is restricted while the less educated, those living in less developed areas, and those with health defects are having more children. The outcome of this situation is the decline of national population quality, which greatly deviates from the original intention of the FP.     

A multilevel model of family planning availability and contraceptive use in rural Thailand

This paper assesses the ways in which the availability of family planning program outlets influences the likelihood of contraceptive use in rural Thailand. It focuses on a village-level measure of actual availability of sources rather than respondent perceptions of availability. Individuallevel and village-level data collected as part of the second Thailand Contraceptive Prevalence Survey are used to test three hypotheses about the effects of actual availability: that (a) availability of family planning outlets increases the likelihood of contraceptive use; (b) it enhances the effect of a desire for no more children on the likelihood of use; and (c) it weakens the positive relationship between education and the likelihood of use.     

中国老年人口迁移的选择性

本文利用2005年全国1％人口抽样调查数据,描述老年人口跨地市级迁移的结构特征。研究发现,我国老年人口依旧把经济发达地带、大城市作为主要迁入地,与青壮年人口迁移方向产生同构。城乡老年迁移人口在迁移动机上存在很大的差别,城市户籍老年迁移人口受家庭因素驱动更大,农村户籍老年人的迁移原因更多元。从对迁入地的影响来看,国内老年迁移人口的迁入地过于集中,将对迁入地的社会医疗服务设施等构成巨大的压力。