Pooling in Dynamic Panel-Data Models: An Application to Forecasting GDP Growth Rates

In this article, we analyze issues of pooling models for a given set of N individual units observed over T periods of time. When the parameters of the models are different but exhibit some similarity, pooling may lead to a reduction of the mean squared error of the estimates and forecasts. We investigate theoretically and through simulations the conditions that lead to improved performance of forecasts based on pooled estimates. We show that the superiority of pooled forecasts in small samples can deteriorate as the sample size grows. Empirical results for postwar international real gross domestic product growth rates of 18 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries using a model put forward by Garcia-Ferrer, Highfield, Palm, and Zellner and Hong, among others illustrate these findings. When allowing for contemporaneous residual correlation across countries, pooling restrictions and criteria have to be rejected when formally tested, but generalized least squares (GLS)-based pooled forecasts are found to outperform GLS-based individual and ordinary least squares-based pooled and individual forecasts.     

Pooling reliability functions

In this article large sample pooling procedures for reliability functions of an exponential life testing model is considered. Asymptotic properties of shrinkage estimation procedure subsequent to preliminary tests are developed. It is shown that the proposed estimator possesses substantially snakker asymptotic mean squared error than the usual estimator in a region of the lparameter space. Relative efficiencies of the purposed estimators to the usual estimators are obtained and recommendations of the level of the preliminary tests are provided. Relative dominance picture of the estimators is presented. It is shown that the proposed estimator provides a wider dominance range over usual estimator than the usual preliminary test estimator. More importantly, the size of the preliminary test is meaningful. Simulation studies is also carried out to appraise the performance of the estimators when samples are small.     

Two separate effects of variance heterogeneity on the validity and power of significance tests of location

Heterogeneity of variances of treatment groups influences the validity and power of significance tests of location in two distinct ways. First, if sample sizes are unequal, the Type I error rate and power are depressed if a larger variance is associated with a larger sample size, and elevated if a larger variance is associated with a smaller sample size. This well-established effect, which occurs in t and F tests, and to a lesser degree in nonparametric rank tests, results from unequal contributions of pooled estimates of error variance in the computation of test statistics. It is observed in samples from normal distributions, as well as non-normal distributions of various shapes. Second, transformation of scores from skewed distributions with unequal variances to ranks produces differences in the means of the ranks assigned to the respective groups, even if the means of the initial groups are equal, and a subsequent inflation of Type I error rates and power. This effect occurs for all sample sizes, equal and unequal. For the t test, the discrepancy diminishes, and for the Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test, it becomes larger, as sample size increases. The Welch separate-variance t test overcomes the first effect but not the second. Because of interaction of these separate effects, the validity and power of both parametric and nonparametric tests performed on samples of any size from unknown distributions with possibly unequal variances can be distorted in unpredictable ways.     

District-level poverty estimation: a proposed method

This paper develops a method of estimating micro-level poverty in cases where data are scarce. The method is applied to estimate district-level poverty using the household level Indian national sample survey data for two states, viz., West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh. The method involves estimation of state-level poverty indices from the data formed by pooling data of all the districts (each time excluding one district) and multiplying this poverty vector with a known weight matrix to obtain the unknown district-level poverty vector. The proposed method is expected to yield reliable estimates at the district level, because the district-level estimate is now based on a much larger sample size obtained by pooling data of several districts. This method can be an alternative to the “small area estimation technique” for estimating poverty at sub-state levels in developing countries.     

Optimal sample size planning for the Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney and van Elteren tests under cost constraints

Sampling cost is a crucial factor in sample size planning, particularly when the treatment group is more expensive than the control group. To either minimize the total cost or maximize the statistical power of the test, we used the distribution-free Wilcoxon–Mann–Whitney test for two independent samples and the van Elteren test for randomized block design, respectively. We then developed approximate sample size formulas when the distribution of data is abnormal and/or unknown. This study derived the optimal sample size allocation ratio for a given statistical power by considering the cost constraints, so that the resulting sample sizes could minimize either the total cost or the total sample size. Moreover, for a given total cost, the optimal sample size allocation is recommended to maximize the statistical power of the test. The proposed formula is not only innovative, but also quick and easy. We also applied real data from a clinical trial to illustrate how to choose the sample size for a randomized two-block design. For nonparametric methods, no existing commercial software for sample size planning has considered the cost factor, and therefore the proposed methods can provide important insights related to the impact of cost constraints.     

Combining p-Values in Non-Stationary Panels

This article summarizes and discusses the existing p-value pooling approaches and compares their performances in the context of panel unit root tests. When the data are free of contemporaneous correlation, most tests achieve very high power. However, in the presence of contemporaneous correlation, most tests suffer from moderate to severe size distortions. When the panel contains both stationary and nonstationary series, the power of tests increases as the cross-sectional units grows. Among all the tests under study, the mean-of-Z test yields the highest power for the benchmark model, while the Fisher test is most robust for complicated model structures.     

More powerful sign test using median ranked set sample: Finite sample power comparison

Sign test using median ranked set samples (MRSS) is introduced and investigated. We show that, this test is more powerful than the sign tests based on simple random sample (SRS) and ranked set sample (RSS) for finite sample size. It is found that, when the set size of MRSS is odd, the null distribution of the MRSS sign test is the same as the sign test obtained by using SRS. The exact null distributions and the power functions, in case of finite sample sizes, of these tests are derived. Also, the asymptotic distribution of the MRSS sign tests are derived. Numerical comparison of the MRSS sign test power with the power of the SRS sign test and the RSS sign test is given. Illustration of the procedure, using real data set of bilirubin level in Jaundice babies who stay in neonatal intensive care is introduced.     

Evaluating the Risk in Sample Size Determination

This article considers experimental costs, besides power evaluation, in order to determine the sample size of an experiment. We focus on the use of standard tools of decision theory in the context of sample size determination. The loss function is defined, from the perspective of an experimenter which adopts the classical frequentist approach, and the risk function is computed. Then, we show the behavior of the risk function in the two-sample t-test, for a small sample experimental setting, with a medium-sized sample, and with large samples. Moreover, an objective criterion for a convenient sample size choice is introduced. Finally, a practical example of sample size determination, which also considers risk computation, is shown.     

Testing for the presence of disease by pooling samples

Screening of pooled urine samples was suggested during the Second World War as a method of detecting syphilis in US soldiers. Recently, pooling has been used in screening blood for Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) antibody to help curb the further spread of the deadly virus. Pooling reduces the cost and also reduces the rates of false‐negative results in samples that are not disease‐free, a factor that has led to pooling not being adopted as an efficient procedure for screening HIV. This paper generalizes a common pooling strategy with retesting, and discusses its characteristics. Furthermore, it suggests a new testing strategy with retesting.     

Efficient sample size allocation with cost constraints for heterogeneous-variance group comparison

When conducting research with controlled experiments, sample size planning is one of the important decisions that researchers have to make. However, current methods do not adequately address this issue with regard to variance heterogeneity with some cost constraints for comparing several treatment means. This paper proposes a sample size allocation ratio in the fixed-effect heterogeneous analysis of variance when group variances are unequal and in cases where the sampling and/or variable cost has some constraints. The efficient sample size allocation is determined for the purpose of minimizing total cost with a designated power or maximizing the power with a given total cost. Finally, the proposed method is verified by using the index of relative efficiency and the corresponding total cost and the total sample size needed. We also apply our method in a pain management trial to decide an efficient sample size. Simulation studies also show that the proposed sample size formulas are efficient in terms of statistical power. SAS and R codes are provided in the appendix for easy application.     

Combining an Internal Pilot with an Interim Analysis for Single Degree of Freedom Tests

An internal pilot with interim analysis (IPIA) design combines interim power analysis (an internal pilot) with interim data analysis (two stage group sequential). We provide IPIA methods for single df hypotheses within the Gaussian general linear model, including one and two group t tests. The design allows early stopping for efficacy and futility while also re-estimating sample size based on an interim variance estimate. Study planning in small samples requires the exact and computable forms reported here. The formulation gives fast and accurate calculations of power, type I error rate, and expected sample size.     

Cost-efficient designs based on linearly associated biomarkers

A major limiting factor in much of the epidemiological and environmental researches is the cost of measuring the biomarkers or analytes of interest. Often, the number of specimens available for analysis is greater than the number of assays that is budgeted for. These assays are then performed on a random sample of specimens. Regression calibration is then utilized to infer biomarker levels of expensive assays from other correlated biomarkers that are relatively inexpensive to obtain and analyze. In other contexts, use of pooled specimens has been shown to increase efficiency in estimation. In this article, we examine two types of pooling in lieu of a random sample. The first is random (or traditional) pooling, and we characterize the second as “optimal” pooling. The second, which we propose for regression analysis, is pooling based on specimens ranked on the less expensive biomarker. The more expensive assay is then performed on the pool of relatively similar measurements. The optimal nature of this technique is also exemplified via Monte Carlo evaluations and real biomarker data. By displaying the considerable robustness of our method via a Monte Carlo study, it is shown that the proposed pooling design is a viable option whenever expensive assays are considered.     

Combining an Internal Pilot with an Interim Analysis for Single Degree of Freedom Tests

An internal pilot with interim analysis (IPIA) design combines interim power analysis (an internal pilot) with interim data analysis (two-stage group sequential). We provide IPIA methods for single df hypotheses within the Gaussian general linear model, including one and two group t tests. The design allows early stopping for efficacy and futility while also re-estimating sample size based on an interim variance estimate. Study planning in small samples requires the exact and computable forms reported here. The formulation gives fast and accurate calculations of power, Type I error rate, and expected sample size.     

A new jackknife test for homogeneity of variances

A new jackknife test is proposed to test the equality of variances in several populations. The new test is based on jackknifing one group of observations at a time, instead of one observation in each group as recommended by Miller for a two sample case, and by Layard for several samples. The proposed test is examined, and compared with other tests, in terms of power and robustness with respect to a wide variety of non-normal distributions. It is found that the new test is robust and has reasonably high power for normal as well as for non-normal observations, irrespective of the sample size. Furthermore, the proposed test is certainly superior to all other tests considered here in small to moderate size samples, and is as good as or better than the other tests in large samples, irrespective of the distribution of sampling observations.     

Sample size determination for the parallel model in a survey with sensitive questions

Recently, a new non-randomized parallel design is proposed by Tian (2013) for surveys with sensitive topics. However, the sample size formulae associated with testing hypotheses for the parallel model are not yet available. As a crucial component in surveys, the sample size formulae with the parallel design are developed in this paper by using the power analysis method for both the one- and two-sample problems. We consider both the one- and two-sample problems. The asymptotic power functions and the corresponding sample size formulae for both the one- and two-sided tests based on the large-sample normal approximation are derived. The performance is assessed through comparing the asymptotic power with the exact power and reporting the ratio of the sample sizes with the parallel model and the design of direct questioning. We numerically compare the sample sizes needed for the parallel design with those required for the crosswise and triangular models. Two theoretical justifications are also provided. An example from a survey on ‘sexual practices’ in San Francisco, Las Vegas and Portland is used to illustrate the proposed methods.     

Power and Sample Size for Fixed-Effects Inference in Reversible Linear Mixed Models

ABSTRACT

Despite the popularity of the general linear mixed model for data analysis, power and sample size methods and software are not generally available for commonly used test statistics and reference distributions. Statisticians resort to simulations with homegrown and uncertified programs or rough approximations which are misaligned with the data analysis. For a wide range of designs with longitudinal and clustering features, we provide accurate power and sample size approximations for inference about fixed effects in the linear models we call reversible. We show that under widely applicable conditions, the general linear mixed-model Wald test has noncentral distributions equivalent to well-studied multivariate tests. In turn, exact and approximate power and sample size results for the multivariate Hotelling–Lawley test provide exact and approximate power and sample size results for the mixed-model Wald test. The calculations are easily computed with a free, open-source product that requires only a web browser to use. Commercial software can be used for a smaller range of reversible models. Simple approximations allow accounting for modest amounts of missing data. A real-world example illustrates the methods. Sample size results are presented for a multicenter study on pregnancy. The proposed study, an extension of a funded project, has clustering within clinic. Exchangeability among the participants allows averaging across them to remove the clustering structure. The resulting simplified design is a single-level longitudinal study. Multivariate methods for power provide an approximate sample size. All proofs and inputs for the example are in the supplementary materials (available online).     

Stein's two sample test of a general linear hypothesis and a noncentral f–type distribution

Stein's two–sample procedure for a general linear model is studied and derived in terms of matrices in which the error tems are distributed as multivatriate student t–error terms. Tests and confidence regions are constructed in a similar way to classical linear models which involves percentage points of student t and F distributions. The advantages of taking two samples are: the variance of the error terms is known, and the power of tests are size of confidence regions are controllable. A new distribution called noncentral F–type distribution different from the nencentral F is found when considerinf the power of the test of general linear hypothesis.     

Power transformations to induce normality and their applications

Summary.  Random variables which are positive linear combinations of positive independent random variables can have heavily right-skewed finite sample distributions even though they might be asymptotically normally distributed. We provide a simple method of determining an appropriate power transformation to improve the normal approximation in small samples. Our method contains the Wilson–Hilferty cube root transformation for χ ² random variables as a special case. We also provide some important examples, including test statistics of goodness-of-fit and tail index estimators, where such power transformations can be applied. In particular, we study the small sample behaviour of two goodness-of-fit tests for time series models which have been proposed recently in the literature. Both tests are generalizations of the popular Box–Ljung–Pierce portmanteau test, one in the time domain and the other in the frequency domain. A power transformation with a finite sample mean and variance correction is proposed, which ameliorates the small sample effect. It is found that the corrected versions of the tests have markedly better size properties. The correction is also found to result in an overall increase in power which can be significant under certain alternatives. Furthermore, the corrected tests also have better power than the Box–Ljung–Pierce portmanteau test, unlike the uncorrected versions.     

Multiple-arm superiority and non-inferiority designs with various endpoints

Multiple-arm dose-response superiority trials are widely studied for continuous and binary endpoints, while non-inferiority designs have been studied recently in two-arm trials. In this paper, a unified asymptotic formulation of a sample size calculation for k-arm (k>0) trials with different endpoints (continuous, binary and survival endpoints) is derived for both superiority and non-inferiority designs. The proposed method covers the sample size calculation for single-arm and k-arm (k> or =2) designs with survival endpoints, which has not been covered in the statistic literature. A simple, closed form for power and sample size calculations is derived from a contrast test. Application examples are provided. The effect of the contrasts on the power is discussed, and a SAS program for sample size calculation is provided and ready to use.     

Nonparametric-likelihood inference based on cost-effectively-sampled-data

Costs associated with the evaluation of biomarkers can restrict the number of relevant biological samples to be measured. This common problem has been dealt with extensively in the epidemiologic and biostatistical literature that proposes to apply different cost-efficient procedures, including pooling and random sampling strategies. The pooling design has been widely addressed as a very efficient sampling method under certain parametric assumptions regarding data distribution. When cost is not a main factor in the evaluation of biomarkers but measurement is subject to a limit of detection, a common instrument limitation on the measurement process, the pooling design can partially overcome this instrumental limitation. In certain situations, the pooling design can provide data that is less informative than a simple random sample; however this is not always the case. Pooled-data-based nonparametric inferences have not been well addressed in the literature. In this article, a distribution-free method based on the empirical likelihood technique is proposed to substitute the traditional parametric-likelihood approach, providing the true coverage, confidence interval estimation and powerful tests based on data obtained after the cost-efficient designs. We also consider several nonparametric tests to compare with the proposed procedure. We examine the proposed methodology via a broad Monte Carlo study and a real data example.