ESTIMATING TELEPHONE NONCOVERAGE BIAS WITH A TELEPHONE SURVEY

Nontelephone households are implicitly treated as a static populationin discussions of sampling frame noncoverage. Yet telephoneservice is known to be episodic for many households, who maygain or lose service as their financial situation changes orwhen they move. Thus the population of telephone householdsat any given time includes households that were recently a partof the nontelephone population. These households may be usedto characterize the nature of some noncoverage errors and evento estimate their magnitude. Using a panel constructed withthe 1992-93 Current Population Survey, "transient" telephonehouseholds-those who gained or lost service over the year coveredby the panel-are shown to comprise over half of the panel householdsreporting no telephone service in either the 1992 or 1993 surveys.These households are compared with the total nonphone populationand found to be similar on a variety of key demographic characteristics.Several statewide Virginia telephone surveys are used to comparehouseholds reporting "intermittent" phone service with nontelephonehouseholds surveyed through in-person interviews. Householdsreporting intermittent telephone service were very similar tonontelephone households in terms of health insurance coverageand other variables known to be related to telephone status.     

USING THE TELEPHONE IN FAMILY THERAPY

This article explores use of the telephone as a communication medium for engaging families in the therapy process. A review of related literature is followed by an exploration of some of the challenges involves. The author offers suggestions for conducting phone sessions, provides a case example, examines some of the ethical issues involves, and ponders the possible future impact of advanced telephone-related communication technology on family therapy.     

ESTIMATING BIAS DUE TO NONRESPONSE IN MAIL SURVEYS

A procedure for minimizing nonresponse error in a self-administeredmail waterfowl harvest survey was tested on a stratified sampleof 3,360 Canada Migratory Game Bird Hunting Permit purchasersin Ontario. On the assumption that follow-ups probe deeper intothe core of nonrespondents, a linear regression model for estimatingparameter values of the population while correcting for nonresponsebias was devised using cumulated responses over three successivemailings. It was estimated that nonrespondents who tended tohave a significantly lower level of participation and involvementin the topic investigated were younger and resided in ruralareas of the province. Nonresponse bias was as high as 14.4percent for waterfowl kill per day of hunting and 11.1 percentfor age of hunters. Results confirm the usefulness of follow-upsof nonrespondents as a means of exploring and correcting fornonresponse error     

USING DUAL FRAME DESIGNS TO REDUCE NONRESPONSE IN TELEPHONE SURVEYS

This article reports on the results of a series of experimentsdesigned to improve response rates for telephone surveys. Inthree surveys telephone households were selected using bothstandard random digit dialing (RDD) techniques and lists oftelephone numbers purchased from a commercial firm. In the RDDportions of the samples "cold contact" interviewing methodswere used; in the list frame portions advance letters were mailed,and the listed household name was used in the introduction.Experiments were designed to test the effects on response ratesof the advance letters and use of the listed household nameas a means of establishing rapport. The advance letters increasedresponse rates, but no difference could be attributed to theuse of names. The mixture of RDD and list sampling techniquesis also used to evaluate the effects of relative response rateson substantive findings. The cost consequences of these dualframe designs are assessed along a number of dimensions, andthe cost and error components of these designs are discussed.     

RESPONSE BIAS IN A POPULAR INDICATOR OF READING TO CHILDREN

This paper examines the hypothesis that parents exaggerate their reading with children aged 3 to 5 when asked typical single-item questions and that the extent of exaggeration is greater for better-educated parents. It examines differences in parental reporting of reading to children that may result from differences in response bias. It examines whether differences in reading with children by race/ethnicity, income, and family structure hold up after controlling for maternal education and other factors. Finally, it examines whether any bias we find affects the relationship between reading and achievement test scores. Data are from the Child Development Supplement to the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, a nationally representative sample of children and their parents who were asked detailed questions about their lives and activities in 1997.     

HEAPING‐INDUCED BIAS IN REGRESSION‐DISCONTINUITY DESIGNS

This study uses Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate that regression‐discontinuity designs arrive at biased estimates when attributes related to outcomes predict heaping in the running variable. After showing that our usual diagnostics may not be well suited to identifying this type of problem, we provide alternatives, and then discuss the usefulness of different approaches to addressing the bias. We then consider these issues in multiple non‐simulated environments. (JEL C21, C14, I12)     

MITIGATING HYPOTHETICAL BIAS IN STATED PREFERENCE DATA: EVIDENCE FROM SPORTS TOURISM

One of the major criticisms of stated preference data is hypothetical bias. Using a unique dataset of both stated and actual behavior, we test for hypothetical bias of stated preference survey responses. We consider whether respondents tend to overstate their participatory sporting event behavior ex ante when compared to their actual behavior at different registration fees. We find that stated behavior accurately predicts actual behavior at a middle level of respondent certainty, overpredicts actual behavior at a lower level of certainty, and underpredicts behavior at a higher level of certainty. This result suggests that respondent uncertainty corrections can be used to mitigate hypothetical bias and stated preference data can be used to better understand actual behavior in situations where no data exist. (JEL L83, Q51, Z2)     

OPTIMAL CALL SCHEDULING FOR A TELEPHONE SURVEY

Contacting a suitable respondent at home and securing the interviewis a significant component of the typical household telephonesurvey. An optimal calling schedule minimizes the number ofcallbacks required and thus conserves resources. This articlepresents an analysis of time-of-day and day-of-week effectson the probabilities of obtaining an answered outcome and aninterviewed outcome in a large national telephone survey ofadult males. The data presented indicate that, at least forthe survey population included in this study, the chances ofobtaining an answer and conducting an interview on the firstcall are much better on weekday evenings and on weekends thanthey are during weekday daytime hours. Moreover, there is someevidence to indicate that this finding also applies to secondcalls made to first-call no-answers, at least with regard tocontacting efforts. Time-of-day and/or day-of-week effects onfirst call outcomes appear to be generally consistent with respectto both contacting and interviewing, although Sunday has a decidedlyhigher interview response rate for answered calls than do theother calling periods analyzed.     

QUANTIFYING BIAS IN DRIVING‐UNDER‐THE‐INFLUENCE ENFORCEMENT

As the marginal suspect and propensity to commit crime are unobserved across racial categories, it is difficult to quantify racial bias with law enforcement outcomes data. We test for racial bias in driving‐under‐the‐influence of alcohol enforcement. The assessment outcome variable, blood alcohol content (BAC), provides information about motorist's choices and allows for a more refined test for racial bias compared with other law enforcement outcome data. We find no evidence of racial bias in the relevant range where our model applies. However, we do find differences in find rates at the lowest levels of BAC, where there should be no impairment. (JEL J7, K42)     

PREDICTING RETIREMENT SAVINGS USING SURVEY MEASURES OF EXPONENTIAL‐GROWTH BIAS AND PRESENT BIAS

In a nationally representative sample, we predict retirement savings using survey‐based elicitations of exponential‐growth bias (EGB) and present bias (PB). We find that EGB, the tendency to neglect compounding, and PB, the tendency to value the present over the future, are highly significant and economically meaningful predictors of retirement savings. These relationships hold controlling for cognitive ability, financial literacy, and a rich set of demographic controls. We address measurement error as a potential confound and explore mechanisms through which these biases may operate. Back of the envelope calculations suggest that eliminating EGB and PB would increase retirement savings by approximately 12%. (JEL D91, D14)     

THE BIAS TOWARDS ZERO IN AGGREGATE PERCEPTIONS: AN EXPLANATION BASED ON RATIONALLY CALCULATING INDIVIDUALS

We show that individuals' errors in identifying the relationships among variables cause downward biases in the aggregate that are equivalent to the public underestimating the strengths of the true relationships. We argue that rational expectations has considered only the "misestimation" type of error, which can "cancel out" in the aggregate, but that with errors in identifying relationships, there is no similar cancelling-out effect. The result is that the public appears "irrationally" to underestimate the strength of relationships among variables even when all individual agents behave rationally. Empirical evidence that forecasts are systematically biased is reinterpreted using our discussion.     

INTERNATIONAL TAX COMPETITION AND THE DEFICIT BIAS

I analyze the dynamic effects of tax competition on public budget deficits. I find that stronger tax competition leads to a fiscal deficit bias at the early stages of financial liberalization. When countries differ in terms of capital mobility, further liberalization leads to external imbalances and diverging fiscal deficits while corporate tax rates converge. Consistent with theory, I find that stronger tax competition increases deficits in a sample of OECD countries, controlling for tax revenues and other standard determinants of fiscal deficits. (JEL E62, F62)     

THE ANSWERING MACHINE POSES MANY QUESTIONS FOR TELEPHONE SURVEY RESEARCHERS

The proliferation of the telephone answering machine raisesa number of questions about the continued efficiency of thetelephone as a data-gathering mechanism. The most critical ofthese is what effect the use of these machines might have onestablishing contact with potential respondents. If individualsroutinely use these machines to screen calls, then their accessibilityto telephone survey researchers will be restricted. A secondquestion is the degree to which respondents who own answeringmachines and are reachable are likely to participate in a survey.A third question is the extent to which the incidence of theanswering machine as a response disposition might vary by thetime of calling and the respondent's place of residence. Thefindings of this study, based on a nationwide survey, pointto a significant proportion of answering machine owners beingreachable and willing to participate. Furthermore, the answeringmachine appears to be in use more on weekends than on weekdayevenings and in more urbanized areas than in areas with fewerinhabitants.     

DECISION TIME,CONSIDERATION TIME,AND STATUS QUO BIAS

Economists increasingly appreciate the value of studying the time taken to make decisions in order to provide insights into decision makers' choices. This article shows that studying how time is allocated among individual options is also valuable in helping researchers to understand the impact default options have on decision makers' attention allocation, as approximated by how the time is allocated. The study of this impact generates new insights into the well‐known choice phenomenon of status quo bias, which typically refers to decision makers' tendency to stick to a default option. By designing a series of novel experiments, I find that this bias arises even when the choice is among prizes of fixed monetary value expressed in arithmetic form. I also find asymmetric attention (i.e., more time devoted to default options) and strikingly asymmetric choice errors; specifically, decision makers fail to select an alternative better than the default 28% of the time, while they incorrectly select an alternative worse than the default only 11% of the time; and provide evidence supporting a causal relationship between asymmetric attention and asymmetric errors. (JEL D03, D12, D83)     

INFLUENCE OF AN INVITATION TO ANSWER BY TELEPHONE ON RESPONSE TO CENSUS QUESTIONNAIRES

An experimental test was made of whether completion rates fora census questionnaire could be improved by offering the optionof calling a toll-free number and providing the requested informationto an interviewer as an alternative to mailing it back. Conductedon a national probability sample of house holds, five treatmentpanels were created to examine the effect of delivering, indifferent ways, the invitation to respond by telephone or mail.Offering such invitations did not improve completion rates exceptwhen included with a follow-up letter that did not also includea replacement questionnaire.     

RELEASING THE TRAP: A METHOD TO REDUCE INATTENTION BIAS IN SURVEY DATA WITH APPLICATION TO U.S. BEER TAXES

This study uses discrete choice experiments to explore the efficacy of prompts targeted at reducing inattention bias. Upon receiving feedback, inattentive respondents are given the opportunity to reanswer a so‐called “trap question” that checks for attentiveness. We find that individuals who miss trap questions and do not correctly revise their responses have significantly different choice patterns as compared to individuals who correctly answer the trap question. Adjusting for these inattentive responses has a substantive impact on policy impacts. Results, based on attentive participant responses, indicate that a minimum beer price would have to be substantial to substantially reduce beer demand. (JEL C83, Q18, Q51)     

COMPETITION AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: THE CASE OF THE U.S. TELEPHONE INDUSTRY

The article focuses on the relation of competition to changes in productivity. Specifically, it compares the experience of AT&T Long Lines, operating in an increasingly competitive market, with that of eight local telephone monopolies. Both the estimation of total factor productivity growth and the analysis of shifts in cost functions show a markedly faster change in efficiency in the effectively competitive market than for the local monopolies. The article also examines three channels through which competition produces differential changes in efficiency. The results support, by implication, a policy of permitting entry and increasing competition in local telephone markets. ( JEL L11, L96)