A conditional expected utility model for myopic decision makers

An expected utility model is formulated and axiomatized which allows the decision maker to specify his actions in the form of partial rather than complete contingency plans, and to simultaneously choose goals and actions in end-mean pairs. Both utility and probability are conditioned on selected goals and actions, and both are defined over the same set of events. For adaptive sequential decision problems this symmetrical treatment of utility and probability permits the expected utility criterion function to be directly updated in each decision period via transitional utility assessments in a manner analogous to Bayes' rule for updating probability distributions.This study is a condensed revised version of discussion papers [14] and [15]. Research underlying this paper was supported by National Science Foundation Grants GS-31276X and GS-35682X. Valuable comments by Professors J. S. Chipman, C. Hildreth, L. Hurwicz, I. Richards, and M. K. Richter are gratefully acknowledged.     

Combining strength and uncertainty for preferences in the graph model for conflict resolution with multiple decision makers

A hybrid preference framework is proposed for strategic conflict analysis to integrate preference strength and preference uncertainty into the paradigm of the graph model for conflict resolution (GMCR) under multiple decision makers. This structure offers decision makers a more flexible mechanism for preference expression, which can include strong or mild preference of one state or scenario over another, as well as equal preference. In addition, preference between two states can be uncertain. The result is a preference framework that is more general than existing models which consider preference strength and preference uncertainty separately. Within the hybrid preference structure, four kinds of stability are defined as solution concepts and a post-stability analysis, called status quo analysis, which can be used to track the evolution of a given conflict. Algorithms are provided for implementing the key inputs of stability analysis and status quo analysis within the extended preference structure. The new stability concepts under the hybrid preference structure can be used to model complex strategic conflicts arising in practical applications, and can provide new insights for the conflicts. The method is illustrated using the conflict over proposed bulk water exports from Lake Gisborne in Newfoundland, Canada.     

反思“发展”：21世纪“发展哲学”之主题

20世纪留给人们值得咀嚼的东西真是太多太多 ,甚至超过了他们的承受能力。 2 0世纪是人类社会的发展高歌猛进的时代 ,如后工业社会的来临、信息时代的开辟、知识经济的出现、数字化生存的诞生……极大地改变以至重建了人类存在方式 ,这一切足以使人类引以为自豪 ;同时它又是一个充满种种危机的时代 ,如全球性问题凸显、两次世界大战的爆发、冷战格局的形成、人的自我迷失……把人类抛入了一个又一个的困境之中。按照进步主义的理解 ,2 0世纪应该是文明程度最高的世纪 ,然而具有反讽意味的是 ,它同时又是人类自相杀戮达到登峰造极的世纪。有…     

新农村建设背景下农村劳务经济发展的再审视

改革开放以来,劳务经济对农村发展的贡献呈现出阶段性、补充性和差异性等特征.劳务经济对新农村建设的现实价值在于:通过增加农民收入,拓宽新农村建设的资金来源;通过推进现代农业,务实新农村建设的产业基础;通过塑造新型农民,强化新农村建设的人力支撑.思想认识偏误、市场发育不全、产业结构欠佳、制度供给不足、人力资本短缺,是目前劳务经济发展面临的五大困境.促进劳务经济发展,必须矫正思想认识偏见,提供热情周到服务;发展城乡二三产业,撑大农外就业空间;破除制度政策壁垒,开通城乡劳务市场;增加人力资本投资,提升农民综合素质.     

Learning to cooperate with Pavlov an adaptive strategy for the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma with noise

Conflict of interest may be modeled, heuristically, by the iterated Prisoner's Dilemma game. Although several researchers have shown that the Tit-For-Tat strategy can encourage the evolution of cooperation, this strategy can never outscore any opponent and it does poorly against its clone in a noisy environment. Here we examine the family of Pavlovian strategies which adapts its play by positive and negative conditioning, much as many animals do. Mutual cooperation will evolve in a contest with Pavlov against a wide variety of opponents and in particular against its clone. And the strategy is quite stable in a noisy environment. Although this strategy cooperates and retaliates, as does Tit-For-Tat, it is not forgiving; Pavlov will exploit altruistic strategies until he is punished by mutual defection. Moreover, Pavlovian strategies are natural models for many real life conflict-of-interest encounters as well as human and computer simulations.     

A representation of preferences by the Choquet integral with respect to a 2-additive capacity

In the context of Multiple criteria decision analysis, we present the necessary and sufficient conditions allowing to represent an ordinal preferential information provided by the decision maker by a Choquet integral w.r.t a 2-additive capacity. We provide also a characterization of this type of preferential information by a belief function which can be viewed as a capacity. These characterizations are based on three axioms, namely strict cycle-free preferences and some monotonicity conditions called MOPI and 2-MOPI.     

法律传统与中国经济法之争

法律传统是招致法学之争的惯常因素。中国法经过近代变革承袭了成文法传统,而正是大陆法学理优先、注重法体系结构的特点,引发了以经济法的生存与归宿为核心的学术纷争。同时,前苏联传统法学中的法部门划分理论、现代经济法理论以及意识形态法学的深重影响,也是引发中国经济法之争的重要原因。透过对法律传统与中国经济法之争的分析,可以进一步窥见法的历史和现实的内在关联性。     

A decision support system for the graph model of conflicts

A comprehensive decision support system called GMCA (Graph Model for Conflict Analysis) implementing the multi-player graph model for analyzing conflicts is developed. GMCA contains algorithms for the rapid computation of a wide range of solution concepts, thereby enabling decision makers to take account of the diversity of human behavior. Using an engineering case study, the key features of GMCA are illustrated.     

Causality in the logic of decision

In recent years there has been an active debate between proponents of two different models of rational decision. One model is evidential decision theory, which is characterized by the fact that it holds the principle of maximizing expected utility to be appropriate whenever the states are probabilistically independent of the acts. The other model, causal decision theory, holds that the principle of maximizing expected utility is appropriate whenever the states are causally independent of the acts. The proponents of evidential decision theory include Richard Jeffrey and Ellery Eells, who claim that evidential decision theory has significant advantages over causal decision theory. In this paper I discuss the two main advantages which have been claimed for evidential decision theory, and show that in fact evidential decision theory does not possess either of these advantages.     

Regulating inclusivity: reforming adoption law for the 21st century

ABSTRACT The process of the reform of current adoption law in England and Wales to better meet the needs of adoption practice has been a lengthy one. The extent to which the regulatory framework set out in the Adoption Act 1976 reflects an exclusive model of adoption no longer suited to current practice is well recognized. In this paper the reforms (about to be) enacted in the Adoption and Children Act 2002 are critically considered in the light of the identified requirements of a regulatory system supportive of an inclusive model better suited to the changed nature of adoption. Key themes running through the requirements are explored in the context of the reforms, and the extent to which the paramountcy of the welfare of the child will be underpinned by respect and support for the needs and rights of all parties to the so‐called adoption triangle. Whilst the new legislation is specific to England and Wales, the issues discussed are relevant not only in other common law jurisdictions but throughout the developed world.     

Decentralization of decision making: the case of payment policies for children's daycare

To bring about equality, the Nordic welfare states have provided a broad range of services with as homogenous eligibility criteria as possible. This homogeneity of social benefits has been obtained by centralized decision making and a high degree of statutory regulation. Recent trends in all welfare states veer towards greater local independence and decentralization. This article examines how the decentralization of decision making in Finland has affected the realization of basic welfare state principles. The specific aspect from which the topic is examined are user fee policies for children's daycare. The analysis gives a rather inconsistent picture of possible explanations for the differences between daycare payment policies. Municipal decision making is influenced by economic rather than political or structural factors. However, logical economic explanations are found only in large municipalities. This study highlights that decentralization of decision making has put families in very different economic positions in different municipalities - municipal traps are emerging. The relationship between welfare services and income redistribution has become ever more complicated as decision-making powers have been localized. A family may, for example, be paying the highest daycare fees but at the same time be entitled to social assistance.     

On the economic foundations of decision theory

Theory and Decision - Economics bases the choice theory on the mental experiment that introduces the choice correspondence, which associates to every set of possible actions the subset of preferred...     

试析法律国际化的历史进程

随着经济全球化的深入 ,法律国际化这一趋势进一步增强了。但法律国际化并不是最近几年才出现的新现象 ,它是有其产生、发展的历史进程的。根据法律国际化的推动力量的不同 ,可将法律国际化的历史进程分成三个时期———战争时期、意识形态时期和经济时期 ,并且从中可归纳出法律国际化历史进程中的一些发展特点 ,即法律国际化的成本越来越低 ,法律国际化的范围或目标越来越明确 ,法律国际化的意识越来越强     

Should policymaking account for market expectations? An estimate of their impact on commodity policy

Costs and effects of commodity price stabilization will depend on private price expectations, and these price expectations do respond to changes in public policy. Past empirical studies assumed that price expectations did not incorporate policy constraints on price. The following article examines the implications of correcting this weakness in earlier studies. Substantial differences in estimates of stabilization con result from this improvement in methodology.     

Impact of the Olmstead decision five years later:a national perspective for social workers

The Olmstead Decision of 1999 continues to have the potential to radically transform the long-term care system in the United States. This article will review the components of the decision and steps being taken by the federal and state governments to address its challenges and mandates. A number of key areas where social workers can play important roles will be described.     

On the foundations of decision making under partial information

We show how to model incompleteness in the decision maker's judgements, within a Bayesian context, providing axioms which lead us to work with families of values or probabilities and utilities. The proper solution concepts are suggested. On the whole, we provide a more robust decision theory, based on a weaker set of axioms, but embodying coherence, since it essentially implies carrying out a family of coherent decision analyses.     

彼得拉任斯基心理法学说述评

彼得拉任斯基心理法学说有着特定的历史背景和理论渊源 ,其主要内容包括 :法学方法论 ,法的概念及其分类 ,法和国家 ,法与正义、道德 ,法的功能与发展等。虽然彼氏关于法是具有命令和归属性的法律冲动的定义不可能揭示法的本质 ,但他的学说却可能成为后人在法学研究中建功立业的起     

The role of law in welfare reform: critical perspectives on the relationship between law and social work practice

This article considers the complex relationships between law, welfare policy and social work practice, in order to address the question of what role legal frameworks might play in achieving welfare policy and professional practice goals. It traces how law has developed as a core component of professional practice, and challenges some of the false expectations placed upon it. It then draws on findings from an international knowledge review of law teaching in social work education to propose a model for understanding how professional practice incorporates legal perspectives, and proposes ways in which legal frameworks can provide positive and constructive vehicles for accountable practice.     

知识产权强制许可中的反垄断法

知识产权是激励创新的机制,应得到保护;知识产权在市场竞争中又是重要乃至关键的因素,因此会受到反垄断法的制约。各国反垄断法一般不把与知识产权相关的限制竞争看成一个黑白分明的问题,仅当它们成为市场势力的决定性因素,且不合理地严重妨碍市场竞争的时候,才会受到禁止。考察与知识产权相关的限制竞争需进行综合分析：界定相关市场、认定当事人关系、确定当事人市场份额、评估限制竞争条款等等。中国的现行法规还不足以解决与知识产权相关的限制竞争问题,不过中国立法进程已经表明,滥用知识产权排除或严重限制竞争的行为不能从反垄断法得到豁免。     

民事法律行为的法理分析

一般认为 ,民事行为是民事法律行为的上位概念 ,民事行为以意思表示为要素 ,如果符合法律规定的有效要件 ,就产生法律效力 ,这种行为即为民事法律行为。民事行为之成立一般体现行为人意志 ,而民事行为之有效则是公权力对私法自治的管理与控制。民事行为概念的创立与运用 ,有利于建立和完善科学的民法概念体系 ,有利于将民法规定的行为和其他法律部门规定的行为严格区分开来。