Did Unilateral Divorce Laws Raise Divorce Rates in Western Europe?

The increase in European divorce rates over the past decades was accompanied by several changes in divorce laws. Yet for European countries, research on the effects of divorce law on the divorce rate is scarce. Most of the existing studies are based on data from North America and provide numerous, but inconsistent, results. We use fixed‐effects regression models to examine the impact of the introduction of unilateral divorce on the divorce rate in Western European countries. We find that de facto unilateral divorce practices led to a sustainable increase in the divorce rate, whereas legal rights to unilaterally divorce had no long‐run effects.     

How Do Workers’ Remittances Respond to Lending Rates?

The literature on migrants’ motivation to remit ranges from self‐interest to altruism where studies analyse the impact from home country interest rates or interest differentials between home and host countries. We reinterpret the interest rate elasticity of remittances as a form of debt‐repayment responsiveness rather than based on opportunistic motivation. Modelling altruistic transfer and debt‐repayment, we find that, for a panel of countries, the long‐run responsiveness of remittances to changes in real lending rates is negative. This suggests that an expansionary (contractionary) monetary policy is most likely to lead to an increase (reduction) in remittances in the long‐run. In contrast to this, the short‐run impact of interest rate changes on remittances is positive.     

Exploring the Urban–Rural Incarceration Divide: Drivers of Local Jail Incarceration Rates in the United States

ABSTRACT

A large body of research has focused on understanding mass incarceration in the United States through the lens of federal and state prison growth. However, local jail systems, with 11 million admissions each year, have received less research attention despite their broad impact on communities. Preliminary analysis conducted by the Vera Institute of Justice (Vera) uncovered geographical disparities in county jail incarceration rates. Contrary to assumptions that incarceration is an urban phenomenon, Vera discovered that, in recent decades, pretrial jail rates have declined or remained flat in many urban areas, whereas rates have grown in rural counties. In an effort to uncover factors contributing to continued jail growth in rural areas, Vera joined forces with Two Sigma’s Data Clinic, a volunteer-based program that leverages Two Sigma employees’ data science expertise. Determinants of local jail rates from 2000–2013 were examined using a generalized estimating equations (GEE) model to account for correlations within counties over time. Results revealed that county-level poverty, police expenditures, and spillover effects from other county and state authorities are significant predictors of local jail rates. Investigation of model residuals revealed clusters of counties where observed rates were much higher than expected conditioned upon county variables.     

The Effect of Unemployment Duration on National Suicide Rates: A Time Series Analysis, 1948–1982

Abstract

Periods of increasing unemployment are associated with increases in suicide rates. Unemployment increases suicide among laid off persons, new entrants, reentrants to the labor market, and groups indirectly affected—the underemployed, those fearing unemployment, the families of the unemployed, and even those suffering from falling real wages, a condition endemic in major recessions. The present investigation deals with a neglected unemployment measure: the duration of unemployment, a condition known to be critical to the generation of extreme behavior such as suicide. Controls are introduced from alternative perspectives on the problem including the incidence of divorce. The data analyzed refer to yearly measures of the variables over a 31 year period. The results of a Cochrane-Orcutt iterative regression analysis indicate that the greater the duration of unemployment the greater the suicide rate. Using ex post forecasting techniques it is estimated that increases in unemployment during the Reagan administration have been associated with at least 929 additional deaths from suicide. The duration of unemployment increases suicide rates for both males and females. The model explains between 59 and 88 percent of the variance in suicide.     

Rising Rates of Cohabitation and the Odds of Repartnering: Does the Gap Between Men and Women Disappear?

Men are more likely to repartner than women. This pattern might reflect gender disparities in barriers to repartnering. When rates of cohabitation increase, the gender disparity might shrink, as cohabitation is a less institutionalized form of coresidential partnership and therefore has lower entry barriers in comparison to marriage. Using event-history models applied to Czech data from the Generations and Gender Survey, we show that the odds of repartnering were indeed higher among men than among women in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. No significant change in the gender effect, however, was found. Similarly, the analysis revealed no change in the effect of gender on the odds of entering cohabitation rather than marriage.