中国经济开始进入较快增长的上升通道——2002年回顾与2003年展望

2002 is the first year since China entered WTO. In the circumstance of the unstable and even decreasing recovery of world economy, the whole national economy of China shows a well-orientated developing trend, gets rid of the old model of "first half high, second half low". In 2002, the economy accelerates one season after another, the quality of development improves step by step. It is strengthened obviously the market-orientated self-grewth capability. The economic growth rate for 2002 will be nearly 8 %. Considering the developing trend of the economy, we can comprehensively infer that the Chinese economy will keep the trend of relatively high-speed development and the growth rate for 2003 will be above 7.5 %.     

城市低收入流动劳动力消费结构的实证分

The floating of rural surplus labor force play a significant role not only in increasing peasants' income, development and urbanization of the countryside, but also in the modernization of china. "Basket-carry" is the typical form of the floating of rural surplus labor force in Guizhou Province. As a weak group, their state of life evokes so much concern. The thesis studies on the state of consumption of Guizhou "Basket-carry' with the data of survey and different methods comprehensively. At last, some suggestions and measures are put forward.     

江西与中部省份发展状况比较研究

In a common sense, a transforming process of industrial structure is the process of the economicdevelopment. Firstly, this thesis reviews the past and the current of the industrial development in thecentral China after the PRC was established. Secondly, The thesis deeply analyses the reasons thatindustrial development of Jiangxi province lays behind the others in the central China in six aspects assystem, investment, level of opening-up, and so on. Finally, after realizing Jiangxi's present situation andusing the successful experiences on industrial development of developed countries and areas for reference,we pose six suggestions and measures to focus on accelerting to deyelop economy and upgrade industrialstructure of Jiangxi Province.     

FDI技术外溢的动态测算及原因解释

A dyanmic model of measuring technology spillover effects from FDI has been established in thispaper by introducing the adaptive expectation process into the original Feder model, and China' seconomic data are used to calculate the time-series of technology spillovers for China' s FDI. A furtherstudy demonstrates that the interaction of human capital and FDI well explains the changes of spillovereffects, while the degree of openness and the improvement of infrastructure also have a positive impact ontechnology spillover. However, it's hard to make certain the relationship between the technology gap,competitive intensity of domestic market and technology spillovers.     

我国市场调查与研究公司现状的调查分析

As an emerging industry with the amplitude prospect, the industry of market research and investigation should be a focus of attention in china. Firstly, this article analyzes the status of the development of the industry. Secondly, it puts forward some problems of the industry in China. Finally, it gives some countermeasures.     

关于一国统计能力建设的研究

First of all, the definition of the statistical capacity for a country was given in this paper. Based upon it, author discussed how to evaluate a country's statistical capacity both from input side and output side. A possible way of evaluating a country's statistical capacity qualitatively was given. Finally it discussed how to building-up statistical capacity for a country.     

基于指数方法的中国劳动生产率增长实证分析

On the base of analyzing the shortcomings of produetion function, the author analyses the factors affecting the growth of productivity of China since the reform and opening up by using index method. The results show that 44.73% of the change of productivity is induced by the shift of employed persons between industries.     

我国外资利用的经济增长效应——基于内生经济增长模型的分析

The flowing of foreign capital is related with the economic security of one countries. The experiencesand lessons of many developing countries show that the impact of the foreign capital to the domesticeconomic is often the most important factors of the financial crisis. So it is important to a analysis theforeign capital economic growth effect. Based on the endogenous economic growth model, this paper firstdistricts the three cases of the foreign capital impact and give the three factors of the foreign capitalaffecting to the economic path. The using the sample data of China, we analyze the three factors. Theresults show that all the three factor effets are all positive, which means that the foreign capital utility ofChina is efficiency.     

论生产函数调整模型

Cobb-Douglas production function is a nonlinear model which is most frequently used and can beenchanged into linear model. There is no doubt for the reasonability of this logarithm linearization. Thispaper gives an new proposition on the basis of deeper analysis that there is a defect with this linearization,hence adjustable production function model is proposed to eliminate it.     

东西部地区财政支出的实证分析

This article analysed the scale, structure and effects of finance expenditure in western and easternregions of China from 1996 to 2000. The conclusion indicates that both ablolute scale and relative scale offinance expenditure in the two regions have increased. The western regions put the emphasis of financeexpenditure on infrastructure while the eastern regions on science and technology. Compared with easternregions, the problem of finance expenditure in western regions lies in the government expenditure washigher than normal level; the gap in science and education expenditure of every person between westernand eastern regions have been increasing. How to increase the effects of finance expenditure is the mainproblem which western and eastern regions must face, and this problem means more improtance to westernregions.     

中国加入WTO对全球福利影响的模拟分析

一、引言关税与贸易总协定(ｔｈｅＧｅｎｅｒａｌＡｇｒｅｅｍｅｎｔｏｎＴａｒｉｆｆｓａｎｄＴｒａｄｅ,ＧＡＴＴ),从前被人们看作是一个置发展中国家的利益于不顾、而专门解决发达国家之间的贸易争端的机构。近20年来,发展中国家逐渐认识到将本国经济与世界市场整合的重要性,许多发展中国家将加入世界贸易组织(ＷｏｒｌｄＴｒａｄｅＯｒｇａｎｉｚａｔｉｏｎ,ＷＴＯ,以前的ＧＡＴＴ)看作是整合过程的重要组成部分。尽管广大发展中国家积极参与了乌拉圭回合中的相互市场准入谈判,但在现行的基本上为西方发达资本主义国家所主宰的国际经济…     

全球价值链分工位置及其演进规律

出口上游度可以测算全球价值链分工位置。本文首先指出已有文献在测算出口上游度时存在方法上的缺陷,然后运用改进的方法和世界投入产出数据库进行准确测算,并使用半参数估计方法研究了出口上游度和人均国内生产总值之间的关系。半参数估计结果表明,随着人均国内生产总值的提升,一国的出口上游度会越来越低,这一结果非常稳健。对出口上游度的测算表明,中国在加入世界贸易组织之前,出口上游度的变动符合一般规律;但是在加入世界贸易组织之后到全球金融危机爆发的时期,出口上游度的变动违反了一般规律;金融危机之后,中国出口上游度的变动趋势又开始符合一般规律。综合起来看,中国目前的出口上游度依然较高,未来还需继续往下游扩展。努力发展服务业出口无疑有利于降低中国的出口上游度。     

偏最小二乘通径模型在贸易发展指数中的应用

设计了一套3层综合指数所构成的中国对外贸易发展指数体系,利用偏最小二乘路径模型对中国1999—2009年的相关数据进行了计算和分析,对中国10余年来的贸易发展情况进行总体的把握和描述。经贸易发展指数运算表明,中国自加入WTO以来,对外贸易的贸易流量、贸易结构等各方面水平均有大幅度提高,但是从2009年开始,由于受到国际金融危机的影响,各方面的贸易指数出现下滑并快速反弹的趋势。     

Likelihood ratio tests for testing for multiple contaminants in the shocks and labelled slippage models

In the literature related to the study of lifelengths of experimental units, little attention has been paid to the models where shocks to the units generate outliers. In the present article, we consider a situation where n experimental units under investigation receive shocks at several time points. The parameter values of the lifelength distribution may change due to each shock, resulting in the generation of outliers. We derive the likelihood ratio test statistic to investigate if the shocks have significantly altered the parameter values. We also derive a likelihood ratio test under the labelled slippage alternative with multiple contaminations. Monte Carlo studies have been carried out to investigate the power of the proposed test statistics.     

中国经济向新常态转换的冲击影响机制研究

本文分析了中国自2007年以来逐步向新常态经济转换的冲击影响机制。我们应用SV-TVP-VAR模型分析了2001Q1~2015Q3间以技术冲击和投资冲击代表的供求冲击对中国经济波动的动态影响机制,结果表明这两种冲击的影响机制都在2007年左右发生了结构性的变化,具体表现为：首先从影响的方向来看,投资冲击的短期影响为正但波动性加大,中长期的影响则变为负值且影响逐步增强,而无论是从短期还是中长期来看技术冲击对中国经济增长的正面影响逐步增强,但从2014年以来其影响有所下降;其次从影响的数量来看,分时段的方差分解表明2007年之后投资冲击对产出波动的解释力度大幅上升,而技术冲击的影响比较平稳。这些结论说明中国经济向新常态的转换主要源于需求侧的不利冲击,但最近以来供求冲击都呈现了不利影响的趋势,为此我们也提出了相应的政策建议。     

多样化水平与中国企业出口波动:基于产品和市场组合的研究

借鉴Markowitz资产组合理论的思想,本文利用中国制造业企业2000-2012年的出口交易数据,检验了企业在产品和市场组合上的多样化水平对其出口波动的影响,并对三者之间的作用机制进行了探讨。研究发现,中国企业多样化水平在经历了加入WTO之后的急速上升之后处于相对稳定的水平。但是,企业间的多样化水平在贸易方式、区域和产业等层面呈现明显的分化特征;其次,出口多样化指数对企业出口波动的影响呈现 “倒U型”的动态特征。从平抑出口波动的效果上来看,市场多样化要比产品多样化更为有效;另外,本文还进一步通过分解出口方差的方法,构建中介效应模型以揭示了市场多样化策略影响企业出口波动的机制。     

The Zellner Thesis Award in Business and Economic Statistics

We analyze the modifications that occur in indirect inference when a nuisance parameter is not identified under the null hypothesis. We develop a testing procedure adapted to this simulation-based estimation method, and detail its use for detecting the threshold effect in threshold moving average models with contemporaneous and lagged asymmetries. In contrast to existing threshold models, these models allow taking into account the presence of asymmetric effects of current and lagged random shocks. We use them to measure the persistence of shocks to U.S. output.     

中国商业银行效率：两种测度方法的比较

为了准确反映中国商业银行的效率水平,了解中国商业银行的效率现状,并对各商业银行之间、各类商业银行之间、中国商业银行与国际大银行之间的效率进行比较评价,有必要对中国商业银行效率进行准确的测度。分别从经济（财务）和技术（生产）的角度,采用财务指标分析法和数据包络分析DEA法来测度和评价中国商业银行的效率及排名,并对两种测度方法进行比较分析。     

The Increasingly Mixed Proportional Hazard Model: An Application to Socioeconomic Status,Health Shocks,and Mortality

We introduce a duration model that allows for unobserved cumulative individual-specific shocks, which are likely to be important in explaining variations in duration outcomes, such as length of life and time spent unemployed. The model is also a useful tool in situations where researchers observe a great deal of information about individuals when first interviewed in surveys but little thereafter. We call this model the “increasingly mixed proportional hazard” (IMPH) model. We compare and contrast this model with the mixed proportional hazard (MPH) model, which continues to be the workhorse of applied single-spell duration analysis in economics and the other social sciences. We apply the IMPH model to study the relationships among socioeconomic status, health shocks, and mortality, using 19 waves of data drawn from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP). The IMPH model is found to fit the data statistically better than the MPH model, and unobserved health shocks and socioeconomic status are shown to play powerful roles in predicting longevity.     

Dynamic Asymmetries in U.S. Unemployment

We examine dynamic asymmetries in U.S. unemployment using nonlinear time series models and Bayesian methods. We find strong statistical evidence in favor of a two-regime threshold auto-regressive model. Empirical results indicate that, once we take into account both parameter and model uncertainty, there are economically interesting asymmetries in the unemployment rate. One finding of particular interest is that shocks that lower the unemployment rate tend to have a smaller effect than shocks that raise the unemployment rate. This finding is consistent with unemployment rises being sudden and falls gradual.