Uncontained subjects: Population and household in remote aboriginal Australia

The particular abstractions represented by the terms population and house-hold are central categories in modern demographic analysis. They form the organizing principles of national censuses in Western liberal democracies such as Australia, and profoundly influence both the collection methodology and the content of the collection instrument. This paper argues that these categories are founded on a particular metaphor, the ‘bounded container’, that broadly reflects the population and household structures of sedentary societies such as mainstream Australia. Bounded discrete categories are conducive to the collection of reliable census data in such societies, since unbounded behaviours can be controlled for by statistical means. However, remote Abprogoma; populations behave in radically unbounded ways. This paper proposes that the dominant metaphor underlying Yolngu (and much remote Aboriginal) sociality is, instead, the nodal network. It then explores the consequences of attempting to capture nodal network societies in terms of models based on the bounded container.     

How bad will it be? Modelling the AIDS epidemic in Eastern Africa

The spread of HIV infection and the subsequent AIDS morbidity and mortality threatens to have a substantial impact on societies in subSaharan Africa. Infection levels are increasing rapidly in many regions, especially in urban areas. The consequences of high levels of infection are inescapable, although, due to the long incubation period, morbidity and mortality increases lag several years behind increases in infection levels. The impact of a serious AIDS epidemic will be felt by many sectors of the society. Mortality levels will substantially increase, especially among newborns and adults under age 50. This mortality will remove many productive members from the economy, while HIV-related illness will reduce the productivity of the infected population. Health care facilities will be severely strained to bear the increases in hospitalized populations. Those without access to the formal health care system will rely on family members for support and care.     

Malthus in state space: Macro economic-demographic relations in English history, 1540 to 1870

. The history of preindustrial Europe provides an opportunity to examine the causes and consequences of population change at a macro level. However, serious statistical problems arise from the endogeneity of all observed variables in a Malthusian system (fertility, mortality, population size, and real wages), and from unobserved influences such as shifts in the demand for labor and variations in health. These problems have undermined both informal inference from the data and more complex econometric investigations. This paper takes a new statistical approach, finding the maximum likelihood estimate of a state space representation of the Malthusian system by repeated application of Kalman filter methods, using annual data from England, 1540 to 1870. The new estimates confirm some findings of the earlier literature and contradict others. Some variables are estimated for the first time. Implications are discussed for the interpretation of English economic-demographic history. Received: 3 January 2000/Accepted: 22 January 2001     

DETERMINANTS AND INDICATORS OF HEALTH AND WELL-BEING: TOOLS FOR EDUCATING SOCIETY

Over the last 50 years, industrial countries have seen dramatic increases in the health and well being of their citizens. Life expectancy, infant and maternal mortality, key measures of population health, have shown continuous improvements since the turn of the century. Yet changes in the economic and social fabric such as increasing income disparity, psychological stressors such as high unemployment levels, and health care reforms with reductions in service provisions that are currently being experienced in industrialized countries, are threatening the sustainability of human health and well-being. With government resources dwindling for health services, expectations are increasing for communities to take charge of their own health and well-being. This paper presents some of the issues and dilemmas surrounding the sustainability of human health, and identifies the importance of developing educated and mobilized communities. By highlighting examples from the Community Health and Well-being in Southwestern Ontario: A Resource for Planning report, it suggests that the provision of key local health and well-being indicators is an important first step to community education and mobilization.     

Thinking beyond polemics: Approaching the health society through Foucault

This paper offers a synthetic outline of the contribution of a foucauldian approach to the analysis of health, with specific attention to the dynamics of the relation between health promotion and the ‘health society’. Through the concept of ‘biopower’, this approach was among the first in sociology to highlight the general relevance of health to the constitutive dynamics of modern (and eventually late-modern) societies. Through the concept of ‘governmentality’, scholars in a range of disciplines offered early critical analyses of health promotion discourse in the specific context of neo-liberalism, highlighting some of its paradoxical features. To the extent that such paradoxes are now more widely articulated as an explicit subject for public debate through the notion of a ‘health society’, it might be argued that the critical function initially offered through the notion of governmentality has become somewhat redundant. Against this background, the paper concludes by discussing, through examples relating to new biotechnologies and to drug policy, how a foucauldian approach continues to be relevant in the contemporary context.     

The Death of the West: An alternative view

Much has been written about the ‘Death of the West’, a demise threatened by the low level of reproduction in Western countries. That fate is contrasted unfavourably with the rapid growth of the populations and economies of less developed countries, and the prospect of the numerical and political marginalization of the formerly dominant developed world. We believe that trends in European fertility have been misunderstood and that, with effort and some pain, their consequences for age structure are manageable. Many European societies also enjoy the advantages of demographic and social maturity, the resilience of established consensual democratic institutions, the rule of law, and civil society. The sizes of China and India raise problems of resource sustainability and vulnerability to climate change. China risks falling into a low-fertility trap, reinforced by urban working conditions unfriendly to family formation. Traditional patriarchal and familist cultures may depress fertility rates to unhelpfully low levels in other less developed countries.     

Never Waste a Good Crisis: Towards Social Sustainable Development

The report by the Stiglitz Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress highlighted the idea that sustainability in essence is about quality of life. This paper discusses and elaborates this notion. It argues that sustainable development should be seen as a process which does not focus on economic development alone, but which also includes well-balanced ecological and social development. Social aspects of sustainability deserve attention because of their instrumental and intrinsic relevance. A society needs a sense of community and commitment. The presence of social capital is very important for the liveability of a society. It is argued that the amount of social capital may fluctuate over time. This means that in the long term, future societies may be better in a social respect (more trust, more participation, less inequality) than today’s. Ensuring social sustainability is thus not only a matter of ensuring that present social cohesion is preserved, but also ensuring that this cohesion will increase or improve. The paper ends by addressing lines of research on social sustainability. The following research themes are mentioned: (1) Quality of life, social capital and social cohesion in a longitudinal perspective. (2) ‘Sustainability of what, why and for whom?’ Sustainability as an issue of choice: trade-offs. (3) Civil society and governance aspects of sustainability. (4) Public perceptions, values and opinions with regard to sustainability issues and (5) Fairness and inequality in relation to sustainability policy, both nationally and internationally.     

Life Potential as a Basic Demographic Indicator

This paper proposes an indicator that integrates life expectancy with the demographic structure of the population for a given society. By doing this, we have a simple indicator of mortality and aging combined, which could be very useful for developed societies. As is widely known, life expectancy at birth is independent of the demographic structure of the population, and therefore is adequate for measuring overall mortality. However, it neglects to take into account the fact that as life expectancy increases society ages, and so looking at life expectancy alone can produce an overly optimistic view of the development process, especially if we pay attention to future sustainability. Aging can in fact affect quality of life and sustainability in the long run. The indicators for aging are usually very crude, such as providing information on the share of the population who are 65 and over. We propose a simple indicator that integrates life expectancy at different ages, not only at birth, with the demographic structure of the population at a given point in time. The indicator has an intuitive interpretation in terms of the life potential, or biological capital, of society; and given that it is a weighted average, its changes can be easily decomposed into reductions in mortality (gains in life expectancy) and aging for different age intervals.     

基于状态转移矩阵（STM）旗型的城镇职工基本养老保险制度可持续性研究

本文应用系统工程的理论方法,通过构建状态转移矩阵（STM）模型,定量分析了人口“城乡-年龄”结构联动对城镇职工基本养老保险制度可持续性的影响机理．研究表明城镇职工基本养老保险制度的可持续性受到“农村人口、农民工和城镇人口”数量及其结构变动、“未成年人口、劳动年龄人口、老年人口”数量及其结构变动的双重影响。基于模型推导结果和研究结论,本文提出实现城镇职工基本养老保险制度的可持续发展的相关对策建议．以期为加快建立覆盖城乡居民的养老保险体系提供决策依据和实践参考。     

新型农村合作医疗制度可持续性因素分析基本框架

新型农村合作医疗制度是提供农民医疗保障、构建农村卫生体系的重要载体,对于其可持续性从以下三方面来分析;以筹资为中心的医疗制度系统构成角度理论性分析;保险制度设计方案分析和不同地区的制度可持续性要点分析结合医疗制度的其他评价指标进行拓展型分析,如制度的公平和效率等。     

Demographic Change and Fiscal Sustainability in Asia

Changes in the population age structure can have significant effects on fiscal sustainability since they can affect both government revenue and expenditure. In this paper, we project government revenue, expenditure, and fiscal balance in developing Asia up to 2050 using a simple stylized model and the National Transfer Accounts data set. Rapidly aging countries are likely to suffer a tangible deterioration of fiscal sustainability under their current tax and expenditure system. On the other hand, rapid economic growth can improve fiscal health in poorer, relatively young countries with still-growing working-age populations. Overall, our results indicate that Asia’s population aging will adversely affect its fiscal sustainability, pointing to a need for Asian countries to further examine the impact of demographic shifts on their fiscal health.     

The Study on the Satisfaction of the Elderly People Living with Their Children

In today’s society, with the aging population, the satisfaction of the elderly people is highly connected with the social sustainability. This article used the data of the Chinese Health and the Pension Follow-up Survey from CHARLS in 2013 to analyze the relation between the elderly people’s satisfaction and their living arrangement. Based on the control of the influential factors on the individual, family and the regional level, this article used ordinary least square regression method to find out that the elderly people’s satisfaction will be deceased because of living with their children. However, the elderly people’s dissatisfaction will be vanished along with the growth of the age of the elderly. Therefore, the elderly people’s living arrangements have been changed, to maintain the satisfaction of the elderly in China, the appropriate health care and other activities should be redesigned and developed for the elderly who live by themselves.     

Income and reproductive motivation

It is often assumed that family size and income would be positively related if unwanted births among the less advantaged were prevented. But this assumption rests on a prior expectation that family-size preferences bear a direct relation to income in modern societies. Data on such reproductive preferences in relation to economic status from 13 studies in the United States dating between 1936 and 1966 do not support the notion of a positive association between reproductive preferences and income. Only when Catholics are considered is there even a U-shaped relation between family-size desires and income. These results cast doubt on the notion that the economic theory of demand for consumer durables is relevant to reproductive motivation. Rather, the data lend credence to the idea that significant non-economic influences associated with prosperity depress family-size desires among the well-to-do. Only if these influences are specifically weakened by a counter-force (such as Catholicism) do wealthier people show a preference for somewhat larger families. In no case, however, are the Catholic/non-Catholic differences in reproductive preference large. Moreover, no economic group, even among non-Catholics, prefers very small families.     

Income and reproductive motivation

Abstract It is often assumed that family size and income would be positively related if unwanted births among the less advantaged were prevented. But this assumption rests on a prior expectation that family-size preferences bear a direct relation to income in modern societies. Data on such reproductive preferences in relation to economic status from 13 studies in the United States dating between 1936 and 1966 do not support the notion of a positive association between reproductive preferences and income. Only when Catholics are considered is there even a U-shaped relation between family-size desires and income. These results cast doubt on the notion that the economic theory of demand for consumer durables is relevant to reproductive motivation. Rather, the data lend credence to the idea that significant non-economic influences associated with prosperity depress family-size desires among the well-to-do. Only if these influences are specifically weakened by a counter-force (such as Catholicism) do wealthier people show a preference for somewhat larger families. In no case, however, are the Catholic/non-Catholic differences in reproductive preference large. Moreover, no economic group, even among non-Catholics, prefers very small families.     

Inter- and transdisciplinary approaches to population–environment research for sustainability aims: a review and appraisal

The causes and consequences of demographic changes for the environment, and the possible ways of influencing population dynamics to achieve ‘sustainability’, have been the subject of many debates in science and policy in recent decades. However, the body of knowledge concerning relationships between population dynamics and sustainability is quite fragmented, dispersed over many disciplines, and encompasses diverse theories, paradigms and methodologies. This paper reviews four selected frameworks: linear, multiplicative, mediated, and system-theoretical approaches and perspectives. We represent how population–environment relationships are conceptualized, provide examples of research questions and accepted approaches, and critically assess their utility for different sorts of research for sustainable development. We note the growing recognition of the value of embracing complexity in population–environment research, and how this is consistent with normative aims of development.     

四川盆地农村人口婚姻迁移空间演变分析及对策探讨

婚姻迁移是我国农村人口迁移的重要方面,在不同的经济社会背景下,农村人口的婚姻迁移具有不同的空间特征,并随着时代的发展而演变。根据实地调研资料分析四川盆地农村人口六十余年来婚姻迁移的空间演变情况,发现婚迁距离总体呈逐年增大的趋势,受教育程度和婚前从业状况对其婚迁距离有较明显的影响,经济动因在婚迁地域选择中的作用越来越突出。农村人口婚迁空间演变带来的影响中积极性与消极性并存,从宣传引导、政策调整、经济扶持、教育培训等方面提出相应对策措施。     

Framing in Legislation: The Case of Population Policy in the Philippines

This paper investigates the political framing of population in policy discourse through an analysis of legislative documents. Semantic network analysis was conducted and results were interpreted through discourse analysis of the typical arguments identified. Policy texts were classified into three sets: population management, reproductive health and family planning, and anti-abortion and anti-FP. While the “population management” frame focuses on social and economic consequences of population growth, the “reproductive health” frame defines the problem from a health perspective. Both policies propose aggressive FP programs but each frame uses distinct political rhetoric and semantic approach in its arguments. The “anti-abortion and anti-FP” frame identifies two problems: rise in incidence of abortion and existing policy that prohibit health professionals from refusing patients information on contraception. By invoking a moral argument and anchoring on rights, these policies challenge the problem and solutions identified by the first two frames.     

Population Measures of Subjective Wellbeing: How Useful are they?

This article focuses on the contributions and, importantly, the limitations of subjective wellbeing (happiness/satisfaction) measures as indicators of broad population wellbeing and societal functioning. The popular practice of comparing happiness among countries gives a skewed view of how well their people are faring. Charting trends over time in happiness and mental health gives contradictory pictures of population wellbeing; even the responses to different questions within the same survey can yield very different findings. Asking people about their own lives and about social conditions produces contrasting results. These issues challenge the orthodox model of human development, which places Western liberal democracies at its leading edge. According to an alternative, psychosocial-dynamics, model, some, at least, may be societies in decline. Reconciling these views is no simple matter.     

人口死亡研究的展开

当前 ,在人口死亡现象和研究方面有一些新的内容值得注意 :(1 )人口寿命的延长趋势。发达国家的人口寿命增加的幅度虽然很小 ,但还有所增加 ,人口寿命增长是否有极限 ?发展中国家的平均寿命一度增加很快 ,但现在已放慢了速度。今后世界人口的寿命将如何变化 ?(2 )从人口死亡到人口健康的研究。随着人的平均寿命的延长和人口老龄化 ,不健康的人群绝对数和占全部人口的相对比例也增大。人们对生命质量的关心 ,呼唤着对人口健康研究的重视。 (3 )环境对人口健康 ,人口死亡的影响 ,人口、资源、环境问题已成为全球共同关注的问题。由于人们不合理的生产和生活方式导致了自然环境的破坏 ,已危及到人类的自身的生存。环境公害 ,有毒物质对人体的伤害 ,几乎无人能够幸免。 (4 )“安乐死”的问题。在人类历史上 ,自然死亡一直被人们认为是结束生命的唯一合理形式。这个理念现在受到了挑战。关于安乐死是否合理牵涉到现存的人性、伦理、道德和法律等诸多方面 ,要判断是非 ,可说是世界上的一道难题。     

Problem Solving: Complexity,History, Sustainability

Sustainability or collapse follow from the success or failure of problem-solving institutions. The factors that lead to long-term success or failure in problem solving have received little attention, so that this fundamental activity is poorly understood. The capacity of institutions to solve problems changes over time, suggesting that a science of problem solving, and thus a science of sustainability, must be historical. Complexity is a primary problem-solving strategy, which is often successful in the short-term, but cumulatively may become detrimental to sustainability. Historical case studies illustrate different outcomes to long-term development of complexity in problem solving. These cases clarify future options for contemporary societies: collapse, simplification, or increasing complexity based on increasing energy subsidies.