Labor market competitiveness and the size of the informal sector

This paper formalizes the dynamics of the informal sector with a special emphasis on the levels of labor market competitiveness in the formal and informal sectors. Specifically, it analyzes the effects of improved productivity and higher entry costs into the formal sector on the size of the informal sector for different degrees of competitiveness in the labor markets. We show that when the informal labor market is competitive while the formal labor market is not, lower production technology in the formal sector or a higher entry cost reduces the size of the informal sector in the long run.     

The growth of the service sector in the Canadian economy

This paper examines some of the important long-term changes that have occurred in the structure of the Canadian economy over the 1950–79 period. In particular, the paper focusses on the growth of service industries relative to goods-producing industries during this period. The performance of these industries is assessed in terms of output and employment and the reasons for the rapid growth of employment in the service sector are examined. The paper also examines the producitivity performance of the goods and service sectors and assesses the implication of low productivity growth in service industries on the overall productivity performance of the economy.     

Short-term, population-based forecasting in the public sector

There has recently been a tremendous expansion of the range of problems to which the demographic perspective is applied. Development of a new population-based method to solve the problem of forecasting income assistance caseloads for the state of Washington represents yet another effort in which the demographic perspective helps solve two major public-policy problems: (1) providing accurate and useful forecasts of caseloads, and (2) creating a dynamic model with which to analyze alternative policy proposals. When forecasting or examining the caseload history, it is also common to look at these caseload levels as a time-series. A caseload grows and shrinks as time passes because new members enter the caseload from a population of potential clients while other members exit the caseload. Population-based forecasting, as reported here, is really quite a novel approach to forecasting public assistance caseloads. In most situations, simple extrapolations of past trends or econometric time-series models are used. Characteristics associated with entries and exits can be used to develop dynamic models of current and future caseload changes. For budgeting purposes, these models can be readily translated into average annual caseload levels and can be directly used to examine policy alternatives and programmatic options. Entry and exit rates and volumes can be related to historical, current, and anticipated changes in economic, social, and programmatic conditions to develop models of caseload behavior, and ultimately, forecasts of caseload levels that are used for budget development.     

Settlement size and fertility in the Nordic countries

While the variation in childbearing patterns across countries and between socio-economic groups within a country has been studied in detail, less is known about the differences in fertility patterns across settlements within a country. Using aggregate and individual-level register data, we examine fertility variation across settlements in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. We observe a significant variation in fertility level by settlement size in all four of these Nordic countries - the larger the settlement, the lower the fertility. Second, the variation in fertility level has decreased over time, but significant differences in fertility between settlements of different size persist. Third, the timing of childbearing also varies across settlements - the larger the settlement, the later the peak of fertility. Fourth, our analysis of parity-specific fertility in Sweden shows that the major socio-economic characteristics of women account for only a small portion of fertility variation across settlements.     

Immigration and the public sector: Income effects for the native population in Sweden

The immigrants' age structure and labour market situation are major determinants for their net contribution to the public sector. During the 50s, 60s and the 70s the immigrants' net contributions gave positive income effects for the native Swedes. Nowadays there are negative income effects due to the deteriorating employment situation among the immigrants. The yearly positive or negative income effects have at most been 1–2% of the gross national product. A change in the immigrants' employment rate by 1 percentage unit will change their yearly net contribution to the public sector by 0.1% of the gross national product. Received: 2 February 1996/Accepted: 28 July 1998     

Older women public sector workers in Ireland: Decisions about retirement timing

Older women workers’ decision making around retirement is increasingly important given the increasing involvement of older women in paid employment. This article explores influences on the retirement decision making of older women workers in Ireland. It is based on a case study of 57 interviews with women in the Irish civil service exploring work-life decision making. It finds that retirement choices vary according to initial socioeconomic resources and/or life-course trajectories and are particularly affected by gendered caring norms, employment policy, job tenure, and place in organizational hierarchies. Those women with interrupted careers and low pay have fewer choices around retirement timing.     

Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions

During the last two decades fertility rates have decreased and have become positively correlated with female participation rates across OECD countries. I use a panel of 23 OECD nations to study how different labor market arrangements shaped these trends. High unemployment and unstable contracts, common in Southern Europe, depress fertility, particularly of younger women. To increase lifetime income though early skill-acquisition and minimize unemployment risk, young women postpone (or abandon) childbearing. Further, both a large share of public employment, by providing employment stability, and generous maternity benefits linked to previous employment, such as those in Scandinavia, boost fertility of the 25–29 and 30–34 year old women.Financial help from a CRB grant from the University of Illinois is gratefully acknowledged. I would like to thank Carles Boix, Barry Chiswick, Carmel Chiswick, Evelyn Lehrer, three anonymous referees and seminar participants at ESPE 2000 (Bonn), Illinois Economic Meetings 2000 (Chicago), Simposi dAnalisi Economica 2000 (Barcelona), 2001 Winter meetings of the Econometric Society in New Orleans, ESPE 2001 (Athens), Braga (Portugal), University of Chicago, De Paul University, PAA 2002 (Atlanta) for helpful comments; Gosta Esping-Andersen for providing some data and Cristina Mora for excellent research assistance. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

The fortunes of one's birth: Relative cohort size and the youth labor market in the United States

Using two different measures of relative cohort size – one indicating the size and placement of an individual's own birth cohort, and the other, the ratio of young to prime age adults in the United States in that year – it has been possible to isolate strong effects of the population age structure on wages in the United States over the past thirty-three years. These effects have been strong enough that virtually all of the observed change in the experience premium, and a substantial proportion of the changes in the college wage premium, can be explained by the relative cohort size variables alone. Even changes in the amount of within-group variance in wages appear to be largely a function of changing age structure, and absolute wage levels have been strongly affected by these demographic changes, suggesting that population growth can have positive effects on the economy. Received: 27 January 1998/Accepted: 6 June 1998     

On the political economy of social security and public education

This paper analyzes simultaneous voting on the wage tax rate and investment in public education with three overlapping generations and ability differences inside each cohort. Wage tax revenue finances public education and social security benefits. The presence of ability differences introduces a time-consistency problem with repeated voting. This can be solved by trigger strategies, which do not punish upward deviations in the wage tax rate. If there are multiple equilibria, then higher tax rates are associated with more education. Surprisingly, the median voter may be a young citizen, even when cohorts are of the same size.

Measuring housing quality in the absence of a monetized real estate market

Measuring housing quality or value or both has been a weak component of demographic and development research in less developed countries that lack an active real estate (housing) market. We describe a new method based on a standardized subjective rating process. It is designed to be used in settings that do not have an active, monetized housing market. The method is applied in an ongoing longitudinal study in north-east Thailand and could be straightforwardly used in many other settings. We develop a conceptual model of the process whereby households come to reside in high-quality or low-quality housing units. We use this theoretical model in conjunction with longitudinal data to show that the new method of measuring housing quality behaves as theoretically expected, thus providing evidence of face validity.     

A dynamic general equilibrium analysis of the political economy of public education

The primary objective of this paper is to highlight the distinct roles of altruism and of self-interest in the political determination of a public education policy. I assess the relative importance of three factors in the determination of the equilibrium level of this policy: altruism, the impact of public funding of education on social security benefits, and its impact on factor prices. I then focus on the impact of implementing a social security system on the equilibrium levels of education funding and on welfare. I find that although in the benchmark economy, the presence of social security might generate support for public funding of education, its overall effect on the well-being of individuals is negative for any level of social security taxation.

流动人口社会保障问题的公共政策思考

随着社会经济改革开放的深入发展,以农民工为主体的流动人口数量还将持续增加,作为一个特殊的人口群体将长期存在。流动人口突破了城乡二元结构的樊篱,为就业增加了竞争力,为城市增加了活力,为现代化增添了动力,也有力地推动了政府职能转变和管理服务方式转变。然而,绝大部分流动的劳动力没有养老、工伤、医疗、失业等基本的社会保障。流动人口在我国经济发展中扮演了重要角色,但现有的社会保障机制并没有完全覆盖每年近2亿的流动人口。由于一些流动人口缺乏基本的就业、医疗、保险等社会保障,因此可能会引发一些治安问题和不安定因素。所以,建立有效的流动人口保障机制,是"以人为本"精神和社会公正的最好体现,也是实现社会安定团结局面的一个治本之策。本文简要分析了当前我国流动人口社会保障的现状以及建立流动人口社会保障的必要性和紧迫性,并从公共政策的角度提出了若干建议。     

青海省人口与经济社会协调发展问题研究

人口与经济社会协调发展问题是区域经济持续增长的重要内容。本文分析了人口与经济社会发展的关联性,论证了人口与经济社会协调发展是提升区域竞争力的动力机制,并依据青海省人口发展状况实际,阐述了人口对青海经济社会的影响,提出了加快人口与经济社会协调发展、提升区域竞争力的对策建议。     

An idea whose time has not come: comparable worth and the market salary problem

This article analyzes the most recent decision by a U.S. court to reject implementing the doctrine of comparable worth under the disparate impact approach to Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. The case involved an employer that based compensation for employees upon competitive market rates. The disparate impact model would appear on the surface to be the appropriate vehicle to address wage inequalities that result from a market rate system, since market rates would seem to qualify as a facially neutral employer policy which has a discriminatory impact. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, however, found the model was inappropriate to challenge wide-ranging general compensation policies and particularly the practice of basing compensation for employees upon the competitive market.     

Labour market forecasting in Australia: The science of the art

Since 1987 nearly 50 labour market forecasts have been undertaken in Australia to assist decisions relating to government policy and budget, investment and career planning. More than 20 of these forecasts have been disaggregated by age, occupation, industry or regional labour markets. One of the chief aims of disaggregated forecasts is to help policy makers avoid future shortages or surpluses of skilled labour. A survey encompassing government departments, private research institutes and banks was undertaken to overview recent labour market forecasting exercises in Australia. This paper, which attempts to summarize these efforts, also discusses the main advantages and disadvantages of each major type of forecasting technique. Methods employed have ranged from anticipatory surveys to data-intensive input-output models. Formal evaluation of labour market forecasts requires considerable resources and no known assessments have been conducted in Australia to date. It is unclear how significant disaggregated labour market forecasts have been in guiding the allocation of funds between competing education and training courses. Nevertheless, governments eager to avoid future shortages and surpluses of skilled labour, but less enthusiastic about forecasting, could aim to make the labour market more flexible and responsive instead. Like forecasting, however, the effectiveness of this approach has yet to be scrutinized.     

Male-female differences in labor market outcomes during the early transition to market: The cases of Estonia and Slovenia

Changes in women's relative wages and employment are analyzed, using social security data from Slovenia (1987–1992) and a retrospective labor force survey in Estonia (1989–1994). Estonia adopted liberal labor market policies. Slovenia took an interventionist approach. Nevertheless, relative wages for women rose in both countries. Factors favoring women included: returns to human capital rose in transition, benefiting women; relative labor demand shifted toward predominantly female sectors; low-wage women had a disproportionate incentive to exit the labor market, especially in Estonia. However, women were less mobile across jobs in both countries, so men disproportionately filled new jobs in expanding sectors. Received: 27 November 1997/Accepted: 20 December 1998     

Measuring Wellbeing in Developing Countries: The Case of Algeria

The International Wellbeing Index (IWI) has been developed as a complementary measure to already well-known economic measures, and as a tool for cross-cultural comparisons. It comprises two subscales: the Personal Wellbeing Index (PWI) and the National Wellbeing Index (NWI). The aims of this paper are two-fold. Firstly, to test the psychometric characteristics of the IWI. Secondly, to study how people of Algeria, a third world country that is yet suffering from a harsch economical and social situation, respond to questions dealing with their own lives and life in their country in general, compared to samples from more developed countries where wellbeing was previously measured. The IWI items were presented to individuals either in a questionnaire form to be self-rated or in interview sessions. The total of 1417 answers were analysed. As was expected, a very low satisfaction on both scales was found, compared to the results that were reported in countries, such as Australia or Hong Kong. Comparisons on the demographic characteristics basis show that women are significantly more satisfied than men with their personal lives, though no differences were found with regard to NWI. Eldest and youngest age groups rated the PWI significantly higher than other age groups. Education groups comparisons showed higher ratings on both subscales in favour of groups with no education and those with university levels. Marginal statistically significant differences were found with regard to the PWI in favour of the higher earning group, but no differences in the NWI. No statistically significant results were found as far as marital status, number of children, and income are concerned. The results add to the evidence of the usefulness of the scale to predict satisfaction of people with their own lives and life in their country. Its psychometric performance was proved to be very high in terms of validity, reliability and sensitivity. The results were interpreted on the light of the Homeostasis Theory and the particular situation of the Algerian society.     

Women's empowerment as a public problem: A case study of the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development

Using the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) as a case study, I examine how women's empowerment amassed public attention. I investigate feminist preparations for the conference and suggest that by playing an active role in preparatory meetings and the conference, women gained recognition from governments throughout the world and from the United Nations, and helped frame issues in a way that motivated the press to highlight women's empowerment. I argue empowering women became a catch phrase for media coverage and that abortion surfaced as a symbol of this empowerment. UN publications and reports of proceedings prior to, and during the 1994 ICPD, and articles from The New York Times illustrate use of this media package. The paper raises questions about types of policies governments will use to improve the position of women and the political power women will have in decisions.     

The performance of immigrants in the Norwegian labor market

This paper tests the assimilation hypothesis with Norwegian data. Using both cross-section and cohort analyses, the results show that the 1970–1979 immigrant cohort experienced an earnings growth of about 11% between 1980 and 1990, when their earnings profile was compared to that of natives. This is lower than the 19% assimilation rate predicted by the cross-section method. On the contrary, the results reveal a rapid earnings divergence across cohorts, and between the 1960–1969 cohort and natives. It is also shown that the „quality” of successive immigrant waves has declined over time, thus biasing the cross-section estimates of assimilation. Received: 8 August 1995 / Accepted: 7 January 1997     

The Easterlin hypothesis in the recent experience of higher-income OECD countries: A panel-data approach

The Easterlin hypothesis emphasizes the effect of relative cohort size on fertility. Models based on the Easterlin hypothesis have performed well in explaining time series fertility data, although these results have been for long historical time series and have typically been restricted to single country studies. These models are not adequate to determine if the hypothesis still holds and if the success of the Easterlin hypothesis is an artifact of the time period chosen. We use panel data analysis and temporal causality tests to see of the Easterlin hypothesis holds for higher-income OECD countries. The results support the Easterlin hypothesis.All correspondence to Yongil Jeon. An earlier version, The Easterlin hypothesis in OECD countries, was presented at the annual conference of the European society for population economics, Bilbao, Spain, June 2002. We are grateful to two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. The usual caveat applies. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.