On semi-markov compartmental models with branching particles under the influence of disasters

A semi-Markov multi-compart mental system in which particles reproduce similar particles as a Markov branching process and being subjected to disasters is studied. Expressions for the mean number of particles alive at time t in each compartment are obtained. The results concerning irreversible, mammillarian and catenary compartmental systems have been discussed.     

A nonparametric bayesian approach to analysis of drug dependence data

In this paper, a nonparametric Bayesian approach to the analysis of binary response data is considered. Using a Dirichlet process prior, and squared error loss, the Bayes estimators of response probabilities are obtained. Finally, the results obtained are employed to analyze the ARC 090 Trial data.     

Characterizations of the poisson process using,the variance

Let γ(t) be the residual life at time t of the renewal process {A(t), t > 0}, which has F as the common distribution function of the inter-arrival times. In this article we prove that if Var(γ(t)) is constant, then F will be exponentially or geometrically distributed under the assumption F is continuous or discrete respectively. An application and a related example also are given.     

BERNOULLI SAMPLING

The concepts of the Bernoulli count process of a point process and Bernoulli sampling of a discrete parameter stochastic process are introduced. The Bernoulli count process determines the stochastic structure of the point process, and a process obtained by thinning a discrete parameter stochastic process by Bernoulli sampling satisfies the same property. Stationarity and the Markov property remain invariant under Bernoulli sampling.     

The occurrence of fingerprint characteristics as a two-dimensional poisson process

The individuality of n fingerprint is based on the configuration of occurences of the ten Galton characteristics ( ridge endings, forks, etc. ). A model ( Osterburg, Parthasarthy, Raghavan, Sclove, 1977 ) for the occurence of these characteristics, in terms of a grid of cells, is further developed. The occurence of the characteristics is modelled as a two-dimensional multivariate Poisson process. This approach allows one to treat multiple occurrences in a more satisfying way than in Osterburg, Parthasarathy, Raghavan and Sclove ( 1977 ) or Sclove ( 1978 )     

Some aspects of modern population mathematics

The purpose of this paper is to survey a number of the technical tools and models that have found use in the study of human and other populations, and to indicate some problems of current interest. These tools and models are varied: integral equations, nonlinear oscillations, differential geometry, dynamical systems, nonlinear operations, bifurcation theory, semigroup theory, martingale theory, Markov processes, diffusion processes, branching processes, ergodic theory, prediction theory and state-space models. A fairly extensive bibliography is provided. Also an Appendix has been added describing the analysis of a classical entomological data set.     

Markov Beta and Gamma Processes for Modelling Hazard Rates

This paper generalizes the discrete time independent increment beta process of Hjort (1990 ), for modelling discrete failure times, and also generalizes the independent gamma process for modelling piecewise constant hazard rates ( Walker and Mallick, 1997 ). The generalizations are from independent increment to Markov increment prior processes allowing the modelling of smoothness. We derive posterior distributions and undertake a full Bayesian analysis.     

Semiparametric regression for the mean and rate functions of recurrent events

The counting process with the Cox-type intensity function has been commonly used to analyse recurrent event data. This model essentially assumes that the underlying counting process is a time-transformed Poisson process and that the covariates have multiplicative effects on the mean and rate function of the counting process. Recently, Pepe and Cai, and Lawless and co-workers have proposed semiparametric procedures for making inferences about the mean and rate function of the counting process without the Poisson-type assumption. In this paper, we provide a rigorous justification of such robust procedures through modern empirical process theory. Furthermore, we present an approach to constructing simultaneous confidence bands for the mean function and describe a class of graphical and numerical techniques for checking the adequacy of the fitted mean–rate model. The advantages of the robust procedures are demonstrated through simulation studies. An illustration with multiple-infection data taken from a clinical study on chronic granulomatous disease is also provided.     

Estimation of the intensity function of an inhomogeneous Poisson process with a change‐point

Recent work on point processes includes studying posterior convergence rates of estimating a continuous intensity function. In this article, convergence rates for estimating the intensity function and change‐point are derived for the more general case of a piecewise continuous intensity function. We study the problem of estimating the intensity function of an inhomogeneous Poisson process with a change‐point using non‐parametric Bayesian methods. An Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is proposed to obtain estimates of the intensity function and the change‐point which is illustrated using simulation studies and applications. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 604–618; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

Bayes factors for goodness of fit testing

We propose the use of the generalized fractional Bayes factor for testing fit in multinomial models. This is a non-asymptotic method that can be used to quantify the evidence for or against a sub-model. We give expressions for the generalized fractional Bayes factor and we study its properties. In particular, we show that the generalized fractional Bayes factor has better properties than the fractional Bayes factor.     

Estimating capability index cpk for processes with asymmetric tolerances

Pearn and Chen (1996) considered the process capability index C_pk, and investigated the statistical properties of its natural estimator under various process conditions. Their investigation, however, was restricted to processes with symmetric tolerances. Recently, Pearn and Chen (1998) considered a generalization of C_pk, referred to as C^? _pk, to cover processes with asymmetric tolerances. They investigated the statistical properties of the natural estimator of C^? _pk, and obtained the exact formulae for the expected value and variance. In this paper, we consider a new estimator of C^? _pk, assuming the knowledge on P(LI > T) = p is available, where 0 > p > 1, which can be obtained from historical information of a stable process. We obtain the exact distribution of the new estimator assuming the process characteristic follows the normal distribution. We show that the new estimator is consistent, asymptotically unbiased, which converges to a mixture of two normal distributions. We also show that by adding suitable correction factors to the new estimator, we may obtain the UMVUE and the MLE of the generalization C^? _pk.     

The Multi-scale Marked Area-interaction Point Process: A Model for the Spatial Pattern of Trees

Abstract.  The spatial pattern of trees in forests often combines different types of structure (regularity, clustering or randomness) at different scales. Taking species or size into account leads to marked patterns. The question addressed is to model such multi-scale marked patterns using a single process. Within the category of Markov processes, the area-interaction process has the advantage of being locally stable, whether it is attractive or repulsive. This process was originally defined as a one-scale non-marked process. We propose an extension as a multi-scale marked process. Three examples are presented to show the adequacy of this process to model tree patterns: 1. A pine pattern showing anisotropic regularity and clustering at different scales. 2. A bivariate (adult/juvenile) kimboto pattern in French Guiana, showing regularity for one type, clustering for the other and repulsion between the two. 3. A marked pattern in Gabon where the mark is tree diameter.     

Information loss on the mean for spatial processes when some values are missing

The loss of information on the mean due to the presence of missing values is discussed for a Gaussian univariate process on a rectangular lattice. The exact as well as the approximate formulae for this loss are given for general conditional autoregressive (CAR) and simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) processes. The formulae are evaluated for some low order CAR and SAR processes. The approximate formula is shown to give a good insight into how the loss varies over the different configurations of missing sites.     

Optimal Maintenance Time for Repairable Systems Under Two Types of Failures

Determination of preventive maintenance is an important issue for systems under degradation. A typical maintenance policy calls for complete preventive repair actions at pre-scheduled times and minimal repair actions whenever a failure occurs. Under minimal repair, failures are modeled according to a non homogeneous Poisson process. A perfect preventive maintenance restores the system to the as good as new condition. The motivation for this article was a maintenance data set related to power switch disconnectors. Two different types of failures could be observed for these systems according to their causes. The major difference between these types of failures is their costs. Assuming that the system will be in operation for an infinite time, we find the expected cost per unit of time for each preventive maintenance policy and hence obtain the optimal strategy as a function of the processes intensities. Assuming a parametrical form for the intensity function, large sample estimates for the optimal maintenance check points are obtained and discussed.     

A semi-Markov decision model for the optimal control of a simple immigration-birth-death process through the introduction of a predator

ABSTRACT

This article is concerned with the problem of controlling a simple immigration-birth-death process, which represents a pest population, by the introduction of a predator in the habitat of the pests. The optimization criterion is the minimization of the expected long-run average cost per unit time. It is possible to construct an appropriate semi-Markov decision model with a finite set of states if and only if the difference between the per capita birth rate and the per capita death rate of the pests is smaller than half of the rate at which the predator is introduced in the habitat.     

An Immigration-Death Process with a Time-Dependent Delay

In this article, a non homogeneous immigration-death process with delay in the death rate parameter is considered. A process with a time-dependent delay is developed and shown to result in a non homogeneous Poisson process.     

Regression Diagnostics of the Semiparametric Proportional Rate Model for Irregularly Spaced Repeated Measurements

Counting process techniques have been successfully introduced to semiparametric inference of repeated measurements. Cheng and Wei (2000 Cheng , S. C. , Wei , L. J. ( 2000 ). Inference for a semiparametric model with panel data . Biometrika 87 : 89 – 97 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) proposed a simple inference procedure for the semiparametric proportional rate model, which reduces to relative risk regression models for binary data. While the baseline mean functions are completely unspecified, it still requires several assumptions for valid inference. In this article, a goodness-of-fit test for it is proposed based on cumulative residuals. Theoretical justification is provided and an illustration with a dataset from a clinical trial is given. Results of simulation studies to evaluate finite sample performance are also provided.     

A Bayesian nonparametric estimator based on left censored data

Summary This paper introduces a Bayesian nonparametric estimator for an unknown distribution function based on left censored observations. Hjort (1990)/Lo (1993) introduced Bayesian nonparametric estimators derived from beta/beta-neutral processes which allow for right censoring. These processes are taken as priors from the class ofneutral to the right processes (Doksum, 1974). The Kaplan-Meier nonparametric product limit estimator can be obtained from these Bayesian nonparametric estimators in the limiting case of a vague prior. The present paper introduces what can be seen as the correspondingleft beta/beta-neutral process prior which allow for left censoring. The Bayesian nonparametyric estimator is obtained as in the corresponding product limit estimator based on left censored data.     

Asymptotic Behavior of Conditional Least Squares Estimators for Unstable Integer‐valued Autoregressive Models of Order 2

In this paper, the asymptotic behavior of the conditional least squares estimators of the autoregressive parameters, of the mean of the innovations, and of the stability parameter for unstable integer‐valued autoregressive processes of order 2 is described. The limit distributions and the scaling factors are different according to the following three cases: (i) decomposable, (ii) indecomposable but not positively regular, and (iii) positively regular models.     

Estimation of the Intensity Parameter of the Germ‐Grain Quermass‐Interaction Model when the Number of Germs is not Observed

The Quermass‐interaction model allows to generalize the classical germ‐grain Boolean model in adding a morphological interaction between the grains. It enables to model random structures with specific morphologies, which are unlikely to be generated from a Boolean model. The Quermass‐interaction model depends in particular on an intensity parameter, which is impossible to estimate from classical likelihood or pseudo‐likelihood approaches because the number of points is not observable from a germ‐grain set. In this paper, we present a procedure based on the Takacs–Fiksel method, which is able to estimate all parameters of the Quermass‐interaction model, including the intensity. An intensive simulation study is conducted to assess the efficiency of the procedure and to provide practical recommendations. It also illustrates that the estimation of the intensity parameter is crucial in order to identify the model. The Quermass‐interaction model is finally fitted by our method to P. Diggle's heather data set.