Trends in Marital Instability in Italy in the 1980s

ABSTRACT The authors describe the most recent trends in separation and divorce in Italy using ISTAT data for the 1980–1991 period. The analysis shows a rising instability of marriage and thus a lessening of the gap between Italy and other western countries. The total divorce rate rose from three percent in the early 1980s to eight percent at the end of the 1980s. The analysis shows that the increasing breakdown of marriages is not due to “changes in timing” but to a real trend of ending marriages. Older couples have contributed more than younger couples to more unstable marriages over the past decade. Other variables continue today, as in the past, to be closely related to the instability of marriage in Italy.     

小样本协整系统的检验

采用Mon te Carlo 模拟方法, 给出了小样本容量下协整检验临界值的响应面( respon se su rface) 方程. 结果表明小样本协整检验的临界值不仅与样本容量有关, 还依赖于协整检验中 的滞后阶数. 最后对中国城镇居民的食品消费进行了小样本协整分析.     

供应链的协作供应问题研究

当供应链某活动环节的物资需求量过大时, 一个供应点常常不能提供其全部所需物资. 因此, 实际应用中需要多个供应点共同参与. 针对供应链物资需求的特点, 提出了多点协作供 应的数学模型, 通过引入可行方案的定义, 给出了可行方案存在的判定定理, 以及可行方案的 构造方法. 然而一个可行方案可能包含太多的供应点(太多的供应点有时意味着较高的生产准 备费用) , 因此该方案可能并不实用. 考虑到方案可靠性及费用, 给出了求取优化方案的一个启 发式方法. 最后对模型的系统软件集成进行了简单探讨     

Changes in occupational mix in engineering 1964–1972

Changes in the occupational structure could arise from different rates of output, and hence employment, growth in sectors of engineering or from changes in the occupational mix of the sectors. Almost all the change arises from the latter and, more importantly, the rate of change is not constant. Changes in the sector occupational mix will follow from investment and an understanding of this relationship is crucial to progress in manpower demand forecasting.     

公共管理领域监察合谋防范机制

公共管理领域监察合谋行为极为常见,对其的分析不应只简单地考虑双边共谋,而应将监察者合谋可能性以及合谋防范纳入多层次代理完全合约框架中予以考虑.通过一个“政府/监察者/企业”三层次代理模型表明,事前的低成本、高效率惩罚机制对合谋防范合约的效率非常重要.纯粹依赖于支付防合谋激励报酬的合约安排难有效率,而纯粹依赖惩罚防范合谋的合约安排也只在某些条件下有效率.模型亦可考察政府在生产的社会利益和社会代价之间的权衡行为.     

Vom Controlling in der Gemeindeberatung zum Controlling in Kirchengemeinden

From controlling in parish advisory to controlling in church parishesThe author describes an internal controlling in a parish advisory organisation. He describes the various steps and the process of changing in the different committees involved, which lead to a changing in team advisory. From this he derives points of view to be considered when developing and implementing quality standards and controlling in the work with volunteers in parishes.     

寡头市场产量与价格推测变差之间的关系

用于研究寡头垄断市场的推测变差方法,可以将各种寡头行为模型进行统一,本文在这个基础上,考察了产量推测和价格推测之间的关系。这种对应关系对于我们理解和指导实践,尤其是战略管理,都有一家的帮助。     

网上创新竞争中解答者对发布者的信任问题研究

困扰网上创新竞争发展的一个重要因素是发布者作弊问题,它降低了解答者对发布者的信任,网络平台也采取各种方法监督作弊行为。为此,研究2个紧密关联的问题:①影响解答者对发布者信任的因素;②网络平台如何设定合适的监督水平。对问题①,基于信任理论构建研究模型,通过大样本问卷调研检验假设,结果表明:现有的信誉机制作用不显著,而网络平台本身的信誉和解答者满意度对信任有显著影响。实证研究结果凸显了网络平台服务水平的重要性,也是研究问题②的驱动因素。问题②的研究方法是博弈论,通过逆向求解,分析网络平台如何平衡成本和信誉来制定监督水平。最后,给出了主要结论以及未来的研究方向。     

Recent changes in long range corporate planning in Japan

In his article the author discusses an emerging new stage in Japanese long range corporate planning which reflects the struggles of Japanese companies against the new economic situation in which it is very difficult to enjoy a high economic growth rate. Among the many long range plans launched in 1976 and 1977 Hitachi's new long range plan provides an excellent illustration of the main features of the struggles. Using Hitachi as an example various new aspects manifested in Stage IV of Japanese long range corporate planning are described with reference to the economic and social background and its implications for Japanese companies.     

The Rise in Union Wage Premiums in South Africa

The earnings premium received by African, urban, male union members in South Africa, as compared to other regular, urban male employees, is explored using two national sample surveys conducted in 1985 and 1993. The historical setting of this change is of particular interest, in the light of the transformation from the apartheid regime. Union membership grew very rapidly during this interval, as earlier prohibitions on African unions were lifted. Subsequently, the high rates of unemployment and segmentation of the labor force have been issues of central concern to the new government, elected in 1994. In this context, the paper extends prior methodology, by systematically comparing possible approaches to estimation, in addition to contributing fresh empirical results. Four approaches to estimation are adopted, allowing for: a single earnings regime with union dummy variable; the possibility of different earnings regimes among union members as compared to non‐members; endogenous switching between such regimes; sample selection arising from lack of employment and from division between regular and informal work. A series of tests on nested specifications indicate the importance of recognizing endogenous switching between differing pay structures in the covered and uncovered sectors. However (as with previous research on the South African labor market), no sample selection is detected with respect to employment status. The results suggest that collective bargaining resulted in wage compression among the expanding union membership while significantly widening the gap between members and non‐members. The latter widening gap cannot be attributed to the changing composition of union membership as reflected in observed characteristics of employees.     

论村级负债的区域差异--农民行动单位的视角

学界与政策部门往往从地方政府积极性的差异,及区域经济发展水平的差异,来解释乡村治理的区域差异。本文以村级债务的区域差异为例,试图从农村社会内部的差异:其中之一即农民认同与行动单位差异的角度,来解释乡村治理的区域差异。本文不仅提供了一个理论框架,而且借公开发表的关于全国及地区村级债务报告的数据,检验了从农民行动单位视角解释村级债务区域差异的有效性。     

Distances in Organizations: Innovation in an R&D Lab

The distance between actors in an organization affects how they interact with each other, and particularly whether they will exchange (innovative) knowledge with each other. Actors in each other's proximity have fewer conflicts, more trust towards each other, for example, and are thus more involved in knowledge transfer. Actors close to others thus are believed to perform better: by being more innovative, for instance. This theory of propinquity's claim resonates widely in the literature and has intuitive appeal: ‘people are most likely to be attracted towards those in closest contact with them’ (Newcomb, Th. (1956). American Psychologist, 11, p. 575). Knowledge that a focal actor receives from alters who are close is more readily accessed, better understood and more readily useable. At the same time, however, and in contrast to the what the theory of propinquity suggests, knowledge that a focal actor receives from alters who are at a greater distance may be more diverse, offer unexpected and valuable insights, and therefore give rise to innovation. In order to understand these opposing expectations, scholars have indicated that distance must be conceived of as multifaceted: individuals can be close to each other in one way, while at the same time distant in another. No prior paper has extensively studied the effects of distance as a multifaceted concept, however. This study offers two distinct contributions. It argues, first, why some instances of distance affect the opportunity to interact with alters, potentially lowering an actor's performance, while other instances of distance affect the expected benefits from interaction. The latter would increase an actor's performance. Secondly, this paper is the first study to test empirically the expectations about how seven different measures of distance affect an actor's innovative performance. Innovative performance is measured as both creative contribution and contribution to knowledge that has immediate commercial use (patents). In the setting of a large research lab, it is found, contrary to expectations, that distance does not hurt individual innovative performance and sometimes helps it in unexpected ways.     

Dairy clusters in Latin America in the context of globalization

The milk clusters in the Latin American countries studied share key characteristics in their patterns of development in the 1990s, in particular the rising importance of multinationals and large domestic firms in the processing and distribution segments of the milk products chains. This tends to reduce reliance on and transactions with smaller domestic firms in the milk industry, and induce intra-industry concentration and shifts toward use of more capital-intensive technology as well as shift of activity toward urban centers.     

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment of nontyphoidal Salmonella in ground pork in households in Chengdu,China

Foodborne disease caused by nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) is one of the most important food safety issues worldwide. The objectives of this study were to carry out microbial monitoring on the prevalence of NTS in commercial ground pork, investigate consumption patterns, and conduct a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) that considers cross-contamination to determine the risk caused by consuming ground pork and ready-to-eat food contaminated during food handling in the kitchen in Chengdu, China. The food pathway of ground pork was simplified and assumed to be several units according to the actual situation and our survey data, which were collected from our research or references and substituted into the QMRA model for simulation. The results showed that the prevalence of NTS in ground pork purchased in Chengdu was 69.64% (95% confidence interval [CI], 60.2–78.0), with a mean contamination level of −0.164 log CFU/g. After general cooking, NTS in ground pork could be eliminated (contamination level of zero). The estimated probability of causing salmonellosis per day was 9.43E-06 (95% CI: 8.82E-06–1.00E-05), while the estimated salmonellosis cases per million people per year were 3442 (95% CI: 3218–3666). According to the sensitivity analysis, the occurrence of cross-contamination was the most important factor affecting the probability of salmonellosis. To reduce the risk of salmonellosis caused by NTS through ground pork consumption, reasonable hygiene prevention and control measures should be adopted during food preparation to reduce cross-contamination. This study provides valuable information for household cooking and food safety management in China.     

Price-quality relationships in the fresh produce industry in Bali

As the number of tourist arrivals in Bali (Indonesia) continues to increase, a greater number of opportunities are emerging for local farmers to expand production to meet the increasing demand for food. While there are various production and marketing constraints which limit the ability of small farmers to individually meet the hotels quality specifications, this paper demonstrates how collector agents and distributors are able to assemble sufficient produce to meet the quality specifications imposed by the high class hotels. Intense competition between the many distributors for a share of the hotels patronage has resulted in a significant reduction in price, so much so, that the second grade produce which fails to meet the specifications of the high class hotels, often achieves a higher price in the wet market. Consequently, the small, lower class hotels, who purchase the majority of fresh produce they require from the wet market, experience much greater problems with both variable product quality and price. Not unexpectedly, under the current system of marketing, there are no financial incentives to encourage local farmers to improve product quality.     

Exploring the generation gap in the workplace in South Korea

This study reviewed current literature on generational issues in Korea, specifically in relation to the workplace. Based on the results, this study concluded that distinct generations of workers exist in Korea. While there are similar generational characteristics between Korea and the United States because of the unique societal, historical, and cultural factors in each country, there are noticeable differences such as the existence of Generation 386 in Korea. Due to rapid industrialization and social transformation during the past few decades, Korean society seems to exhibit wider gaps between older and younger generations than the United States. The roles of Generation 386 and Generation Y in organizations should be considered for the future.     

Organizational identity in acculturation in cross-border acquisitions: Implications for HRD practitioners in global M&A

The purpose of this study is to explore the role of organizational identity in acculturation, or organizational culture development, between the acquired and the acquiring organizations during a cross-border acquisition. The goal is to identify how long-term and short-term employees identify with the acquired organization, and the implications for acculturation for both groups. It is also to help identify implications for Human Resource Development Practitioners in this process. The long-term employees (more than seven years) of the acquired organization identified more strongly with the organization than the short-term (three or less years) employees in this study. The short-term employees seemed to welcome the acquiring Multinational Company (MNC), and readily adapted to their multicultural identity, while long-term employees were more concerned with maintaining the reputation of the original organization. The study provides Human Resource Development (HRD) practitioners with a better understanding of how and why organizational identity is an important aspect to consider in the acculturation process in cross-border mergers and acquisitions. It also provides insight into how to work with organizational identity with acquired organizations in integration and adaptation to the new organization by understanding the differences in organizational identity of long-term and short-term employees in India.     

Modelling police success in catching burglars in the act

This paper is concerned with determining which factors influence the chances of the police catching the domestic burglar in the act. It is based on a 6-month study of ‘in progress’ burglary,¹ funded by the UK Home Office’s Policing and Crime Reducing Unit. Data were collected from the police records for the whole of a Regional Police Force. Binary regression models are developed which indicate the relative importance of individual burglary characteristics and the nature of the police response in determining the chance of a successful arrest at, or near, the crime-scene. Adjustments to the resourcing and organisation of police patrolling in order to improve capture rates are likely to prove successful only where burglary circumstances are favourable.     

Public Trust in Government Concerning Tobacco Control in Japan

This study investigated public trust and its determinants concerning the government's control of tobacco in Japan. We focused on the two issues of government policies to ban smoking by minors and increase taxes on tobacco. We conducted a questionnaire survey in which respondents were asked to assess their trust in the government, the government's fairness and competency, and their value similarity with the government. One thousand three hundred and ninety-four respondents agreed to participate in the survey out of 2,600 randomly sampled adults over 20 years old from all over Japan. The results of multiple regression analysis confirmed that value similarity is the strongest predictor of public trust in the government. On the affirmatively supported issue of prohibiting smoking among minors, the results further indicated that assessment of competency is a stronger predictor than assessment of fairness. In contrast, assessment of fairness is a stronger predictor than assessment of competency for the still divided issue of increasing tobacco tax. Respondents who had low concern and had not formed clear opinions on the issues showed a weak link between assessment of value similarity and trust. Based on these findings, we considered the implications for the government's implementation of tobacco controls.     

Evaluating cost efficiency in central administrative services in UK universities

This paper describes an attempt to evaluate cost efficiency in UK university central administration. The funding councils of higher education institutions have progressively evolved elaborate systems for measuring university performance in teaching quality and research. Indeed, funding of universities is linked to their performance in research. The allocation of resources between academic and administrative activities, on the other hand, has so far not been subject to scrutiny. Yet, expenditure on administration is typically some 30% of that allocated to academic activities. This paper sets up a data envelopment analysis (DEA) framework to identify practices leading to cost-efficient central administrative services in UK universities. The problems in defining the unit of assessment and the relationship between the inputs and the outputs are clearly demonstrated.