The effects of income and inflation on personal satisfaction: Functional measurement in economic psychology

Controlled experimental designs and functional measurement procedures were used to study how people perceive the effects of changes in major economic variables. In experiment I one group of subjects rated economic well-being and another group of subjects rated personal satisfaction for a variety of economic scenarios described by variations in salary, rate of increase in salary (annual raise), and annual rate of inflation. Stimulus interaction effects were found for each response scale showing that there is not a simple subtractive relationship between wage gains and inflation in determining perceived economic impact. Experiment 2 further investigated the interactive effects of raise and inflation on personal satisfaction. Results were discussed in terms of two complementary psychological processes: a “negativity effect” whereby unfavorable levels of raise and inflation have disproportionate weight, and a comparison of raise and inflation rate whereby personal satisfaction is incremented disproportionately when raise changes from below the inflation rate to above the inflation rate. Psychological concepts revealed in this study were related to economic concepts of “elasticity of demand” and “money illusion”.     

Central bank independence, economic freedom, and inflation rates

Measures of central bank independence combine many attributes that may or may not affect inflation. Central bank attributes are chosen as a result of political calculations over the distribution of resources between competing interest groups. Simultaneity bias results from regressions of central bank independence or of economic and political freedom on inflation or growth. Our estimates demonstrate the connections between economic and political freedom and central bank attributes that lead to inflation. Countries showing high degrees of economic freedom adopt structures that lead to lower inflation; those that show high degrees of political freedom do not adopt inflation-reducing institutional structures.     

Has the rise in globalization reduced U.S. inflation in the 1990s?

This article investigates whether increased globalization of the U.S. economy has helped hold down inflation in the 1990s. Based on several measures, we find that globalization has increased. Further, we find that import prices exert a greater impact on prices of products in industries faced with greater import penetration. High foreign excess capacity accounts for much of the recent decline in U.S. inflation. Our results suggest that the decline in inflation is explained by the interaction of increased globalization and high excess foreign capacity. Globalization by itself does not lead to less inflation, just greater sensitivity to foreign economic conditions.     

How changes in price and salary affect economic satisfaction: Information integration models and inference processes

Preliminary studies demonstrated the interactive effects of changes in salary and inflation rate on feelings of personal satisfaction, and showed that the effects of price increases in different cost categories could he described by a weighted average model. Participants in the main study were presented with varying hypothetical economic situations which included salary changes (raises) as well as specific price changes. A ratio model was found to describe how raise levels and price increases were combined. The rationality of this model was discussed in terms of how variations in price and income would affect the amount of a given commodity that could he purchased. On some trials only partial information was presented. Low ratings of personal satisfaction were produced when information about raises was missing, and high ratings were produced when information about price increases was missing. These results were discussed in terms of inferences people make when a key source of information is missing.     

Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework

Drawing on relevant literature from a diverse range of academic disciplines we present a conceptual framework intended to further our understanding of perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation. Based on this framework, we provide a detailed review of the literature and an analysis of open issues in current research. The review is primarily concerned with individuals’ perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation, which can influence individuals’ economic behaviour (e.g. spending and saving decisions). The main insight from the review is that while consumers may have a limited ability to store and recall specific prices, and even succumb to a number of biases in the way in which they form perceptions and expectations of global price changes, they do seem to have some feel for, and ability to judge and forecast, inflation. How they achieve this, however, is still an open question, although plausible explanations have been proposed. While much important research has been undertaken and significant progress made in our understanding of the psychology of inflation, there remain many unanswered questions and interesting avenues for future research, which are discussed in the final part of the paper.     

2012年宏观调控要处理好四大关系

随着经济增长的不确定性和风险进一步增加,2012年,中国继续保持经济持续平稳增长的关键,是在宏观调控上要处理好国际经济与国内经济的关系,“松银根”与“抑通胀”的关系,“抑通胀”、“惠民生”与“控成本”的关系,“稳增长”与“调结构”的关系。要处理好上述四大关系问题,关键是要坚持科学发展观,更加深入地推进转变经济发展方式。其中非常关键的举措,就是要在“稳增长”的前提下,适度调低经济增长率指标,加大结构调整的力度。     

Financial Literacy: Building Economic Empowerment with Survivors of Violence

The purpose of this paper is to outline key constructs including financial literacy, economic self-efficacy, economic self-sufficiency, and economic empowerment, and then present findings from an exploratory study that sought to understand the relationship among these variables in a sample of abused women. The results revealed positive and significant relationships between financial literacy with economic empowerment, economic self-efficacy and economic-self sufficiency. Results also indicated that financial literacy, race, and economic self-sufficiency were significant predictors of economic empowerment. By focusing this research on abused women, it is our intention to raise awareness about the importance of financial literacy curricula with advocates, policy-makers and researchers, so more focus can be given to economically empowering IPV survivors.     

INFLATION AND ASYMMETRIC OUTPUT ADJUSTMENTS BY FIRMS

Using ordered probit analyses of a unique micro data set, we find evidence of output asymmetry that is systematically related to inflation and to price asymmetry. As predicted by theory, firms are more likely at higher rates of inflation to raise prices in response to positive cost and demand shocks and less likely to lower prices in response to negative cost and demand shocks. The expected effects of higher inflation on output asymmetry, however, come primarily from cost and demand increases and to a lesser (and statistically insignificant) extent from cost and demand decreases. (JEL E3, D4)     

The Conundrum of Low Saving Rates in Latin America

Despite extensive economic reforms during the late 1980s/early 1990s, Latin America's saving rates remain low. This article examines the saving behaviour of 18 Latin American countries in the 1976‐2000 period and compares it with that of 25 other developing countries. It finds that lower inflation, income growth and increased real interest rates on deposits have not had the expected effects on saving rates in Latin America. Instead, the determinants of saving behaviour appear to differ between the two groups of countries, and saving rates are affected by a degree of inertia. Although more research is needed, this indicates that the focus of the neoliberal economic reforms of the 1980s was misplaced.     

Mental economics: Subjective representations of factors related to expected inflation

This paper presents three different methods for obtaining and representing information about cognitive representations of economic variables. In the first study, variables considered related to a focal variable (inflation) were elicited. The second study presents numerical ratio scales for the strengths of relationships between different economic variables related to the focal variable. The third study gives a method for deriving causal chains of variables linked to each other so that a change in the first variable in the chain ultimately may lead to a change in the focal variable. The cognitive representation of this was mapped onto a causal tree structure. This study also presents causal chains for the effects of a change in the focal variable (viz., effects of inflation directly and indirectly). Although the paper was primarily methodological in character a few observations of differences between economists and non-experts were reported.     

Yugoslavian children in a situation of rapid economic changes

The object of this research was to examine the economic socialization of Yugoslavian children in a time of rapid economic and political changes. The analysis of the interviews showed that the level of knowledge of complex economic problems was rather limited, perhaps because the interview was oriented toward aspects of the economy which are not common in the Yugoslavian economic system.The level of economic understanding increased with age. While the knowledge of the youngest group was at a very concrete level, the older children gave a greater variety of more complex answers. Answers of all groups, especially those of the older ones, clearly reflect certain aspects, such as inflation, of the current economic conditions. In principle, the answers reveal the same characteristics of the economic socialization as reported by other authors.     

推进结构性减税,深化税制改革

为应对全球经济危机的冲击,保持经济持续健康发展,我国2008年底及时出台了积极的财政政策,采取了多项结构性减税措施,取得了明显成效。随着急速扩张的经济刺激计划的逐步淡出,以及防范和化解潜在财政风险的需要,大规模增加财政支出已不可能,出于对防范通胀的考虑,货币政策刺激经济的作用也不能高估,因此,深入推进结构性减税,不失为保持经济持续健康发展的一种良策。这就需要适当加大结构性减税力度,选准深化税制改革的主攻方向。     

Expectations of inflation: The biasing effect of thoughts about specific prices

National surveys follow consumers’ expectations of future inflation, because these may directly affect the economic choices they make, indirectly affect macro-economic outcomes, and are considered in monetary policy. Yet, relatively little is known about how individuals form the inflation expectations they report on consumer surveys. Medians of reported inflation expectations tend to track official estimates of realized inflation, but show large heterogeneity between respondents, due to some expecting seemingly extreme inflation. We present two studies to examine whether individuals who consider specific price changes when forming their inflation expectations report more extreme and disagreeing inflation expectations due to focusing on specific extreme price changes. In Study 1, participants who were instructed to recall any price changes or to recall the largest price changes both thought of items for which price changes were perceived to have been extreme. Moreover, they reported more extreme year-ahead inflation expectations and showed more disagreement than did a third group that had been asked to recall the average change in price changes. Study 2 asked participants to report their year-ahead expectations of inflation, without first prompting them to recall specific price changes. Half of participants nevertheless thought of specific prices when generating their inflation expectations. Those who thought of specific prices reported more extreme and more disagreeing inflation expectations, because they were biased towards various items associated with more extreme perceived price changes. Our findings provide new insights into expectation formation processes and have implications for the design of survey-based measures of inflation.     

A Disinflation Trade-Off: Speed Versus Final Destination

When introducing a new monetary regime designed to reduce inflation, does a central bank prefer more or fewer economic agents who form informed forecasts of inflation? The relevance of the question arises because the central bank can make a decision about how much information to disseminate about the nature of the new regime. We find that the central bank will prefer a higher proportion of agents who form rational expectations if it disinflates from a high level of inflation, but not so if it disinflates from a moderate or low inflation level.     

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION AND SEIGNIORAGE IN A SIMPLE MODEL OF MONEY

This paper investigates the economic signcance of currency substitution using a small, open economy model of money. The main result is that in a low-inflation economy the seigniorage-maximizing inflation rate can be quite large despite a very high elasticity of currency substitution when the share of foreign real balances in producing domestic liquidity services is small (as some recent econometric estimates indicate in the case of Canada). This suggests that currency substitution is likely to be of second-order importance to policymakers in a low-inflation economy where foreign real balances provide economically small domestic liquidity services.     

当前应对我国通货膨胀的思考

当前国内外环境仍然极为复杂,物价上涨比较快、通胀预期增强。造成这轮通货膨胀的主要原因,在于应对金融危机而采取强力的救市政策、流动性过剩、CPI体系、大宗商品价格等方面。抗通胀不能一味地紧缩货币,搞不好会打压经济增长,很可能出现＂通胀没有管住,经济却出现下滑＂的滞胀危险。治理当前通货膨胀的思路,应结合当前国家宏观政策,从控制信贷、人民币升值、融资、税收、改善收入分配等方面着手。     

ESTIMATING THE FISHER EFFECT AND THE STOCHASTIC MONEY GROWTH PROCESS

This paper demonstrates that a change in the stochastic process generating money can alter the relationships between money and inflation and between inflation and interest rates. The extent to which inflation is forecastable is shown to depend significantly on the extent to which money is forecastable. Thus, the greater the persistence and forecastability of money, the greater the likelihood of observing a statistically significant Fisher effect.
US. data over the 1953–86 period are used to demonstrate that instability in the Fisher effect coincides with changes in the stochastic process generating money. There is a significantly stronger Fisher effect during a subsample in which money—and hence inflation—are more predictable.     

新世纪中国对中东产油国的石油外交

石油需求在中国能源发展中以不以人们意志为转移的方式增长。中国的石油外交也成为新世纪中国外交的主旋律。中东石油在中国海外油源中占有特殊地位，中国非常重视发展与中东产油国的能源合作关系。国家利益是国际关系中驱动国家互动的最基本要素，中国石油外交最重要的考量亦是国家利益，中国对中东产油国的石油外交具有政治与经济利益相辅相成、互动互利的特点。石油对中国经济持续高速增长极为重要，“石油经济”成为中国经济持续增长的关键，由此凸现了石油外交对中国经济发展的重要性。     

INFLATION DYNAMICS AND THE OUTPUT‐INFLATION TRADE‐OFF: INTERNATIONAL PANEL DATA EVIDENCE

We explore the impact of inflation and its variability on the output‐inflation trade‐off using a single‐step approach in a panel data context. Previous empirical approaches focus on either cross‐country or country‐by‐country time‐series analyses. We employ a dynamic heterogeneous panel specification using an all‐encompassing estimation framework accounting for parameter heterogeneity, cross‐sectional dependence, dynamics, and nonstationarity. Our sample covers 60 countries from 1970 to 2010. While inflation variability reduces the trade‐off for specific periods and country groups, an unambiguous and more pronounced negative relation emerges between the inflation rate and the trade‐off. The findings are consistent with the New Keynesian view. (JEL E31, E12, C23)     

Trade unions,corporatism, and inflation

This paper examines the argument that the exchange of powers and responsibilities between government and producer group interests (and, in particular, trade unions) under a bargained form of corporatism confers industrial relations benefits in the form of reduced strikes and economic benefits via lessened inflationary pressures. Focusing largely on the inflation question, an alternative argument is entered to the effect that corporatist experimentation threatens directly to exacerbate the problem in part correctly diagnosed by certain corporatist analysts in their discussion of the fundamental determinants of inflation. Empirical evidence with a bearing on these issues is evaluated. Helpful comments from Joe Reid Jr., Ken Mayhew, Stan Siebert, and the participants in the labor workshop at Hannover are gratefully acknowledged. The usual disclaimers attach.