The impact of changes in child support policy

This paper measures the impact of child support reforms on payments to divorced mothers and welfare participation rates among them. A Stackelberg model of divorced parents’ behavior is calibrated to data from Wisconsin, where child support payments increased from $2,175.35 to $3,431.77 and welfare participation rates decreased from 33.5% to 9% between 1981 and 1992. Results show that new guidelines accounted for 24.4% and improved enforcement for 74% of the increase in payments. Higher payments accounted for a 3.9-percentage-point decline, decreasing welfare benefits an 8.4-percentage-point decline, and the two combined a 15-percentage-point decline in the welfare participation rate.      

The mismatch between employment and child care in Italy: the impact of rationing

In Italy the women’s participation is among the lowest in Europe. The female employment rate stands almost 13 percentage points below the EU average and 22 below the Lisbon target. One of the most important reasons is related to the characteristics of child care system. We analyze the characteristics of the child care system in Italy and its relationship to the labor market participation decision of mothers. The two decisions are jointly considered in a discrete choice framework, which also allows for simple forms of rationing. We go on to estimate a bivariate probit model of the child care and employment decisions and find evidence that rationing is an important factor in interpreting price effects on utilization rates and employment decisions. Responsible editors: Deborah Cobb-Clark & Tito Boeri     

State regulations and child care choice

While government regulations are designed to safeguard the health and well-being of children, they may also alter the cost and availability of child care, thus affecting parental use of such services. This paper investigates the total effects of regulation on parental choice of child care and the indirect effects of regulation through the price, quality, and availability of care. In our analysis of data from the National Child Care Survey 1990 we find strong evidence that state regulations requiring center-based providers to be trained are associated with a lower probability that parents choose a center, while state inspections are associated with more parental choice of center and home care. We end by discussing the policy implications of our findings.     

The dynamics of single mothers' living arrangements

Using a four-way definition of living arrangements (independent, live with parents, cohabit, share with others) and data from the 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation, I find that single mothers have a 26 percent probability of switching living arrangements at least once during a 32-month period. Mothers living independently are the least likely to change arrangements, and those sharing housing with individuals other than a boyfriend or parents are the most likely toswitch. Having lived for a longer period of time in any of the four arrangements decreases the probability of switching. Among those who change living arrangements, there appear to be some patterns of transition. Mothers living with their parentstend to move into either independent households or those that they share with individuals other than an unrelated man. If they leave, mothers who lived with their parents tend not to move back into their parents' household, at least withinthe time period examined. Women who share with others or cohabit tend to cycle between their current living arrangement and living independently. Among those who switch living arrangements, mothers who do not live independently tend to have transitions into independence or other arrangements which increase the probability they will choose independence in the future.     

Welfare reform and changes in the economic well-being of children*

Since the implementation of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program in late-1996, welfare rolls have declined by more than half. This paper explores whether improvements in the economic well-being of children have accompanied this dramatic reduction in welfare participation. Further, we examine the degree to which the success or failure of welfare reform has been shared equally among families of varying educational background. We analyze data from the March Current Population Surveys (CPS) over the years 1988 through 2001. Specifically, we link data for families with children who are interviewed in adjacent years and determine whether their economic circumstances either improved or deteriorated. We use two alternative approaches to address this general issue: a variety of regression models and a difference-in-differences methodology. These approaches provide consistent answers. In a bivariate framework TANF is associated with higher incomes; but this association becomes insignificant in the presence of business cycle controls. We also determine that children who were poor at an initial time period benefit differently, depending on their parents' educational attainment level. Poor children with parents who do not have a high school degree are significantly worse off in the TANF era, relative to the era prior to welfare reform, than are poor children of more educated parents.     

The effects of family caps on the subsequent fertility decisions of never-married mothers

Family caps seek to reduce fertility among welfare recipients by denying additional cash assistance to recipients who have children while on welfare. A necessary condition for family caps to be an effective policy tool is that welfare recipients respond to financial incentives in making decisions that affect subsequent fertility outcomes. This paper uses data from the 2001 and 2004 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to examine whether welfare mothers respond to the incentive provided by the Aid to Families with Dependent Children/Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (AFDC/TANF) system in determining whether or not to have a second child. The results show no evidence that family caps have an effect on the subsequent childbearing of never married women.

The effects of welfare and child support policies on union formation

We use data from a new longitudinal survey – the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study – to examine how welfare and child support policies, and local labor market conditions, affect union formation among unmarried parents who have just had a child together. We use multinomial logistic regression to estimate the effects of the policy variables along with economic, cultural/interpersonal, and other factors on whether (relative to being in a cohabiting relationship) parents are not romantically involved, romantically involved living apart, or married to each other about one year after the child's birth. We find that – contrary to some previous research – higher welfare benefits discourage couples from breaking up, while strong child support enforcement reduces the chances that unmarried parents will marry; local unemployment rates do not appear to be strongly associated with union formation decisions after a nonmarital birth.     

Fertility, child care outside the home, and pay-as-you-go social security

We examine the long-run effects of the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security scheme on fertility and welfare of individuals in an overlapping generations model, assuming that child-care services are available in the market. We show that the impact of a tax increase on fertility depends on the relative magnitudes of the standard intergenerational redistribution effect through the social security system, the (implicit) subsidy effect through tax-exemption of child rearing at home, and the price effect through changes in the relative price of market child care, and that if parental child-rearing time is inelastic, a tax cut could bring about a Pareto-improving allocation.

The determinants of paternity establishment and child support award rates among unmarried women

This paper examines the relationships between several child support policies, paternity establishment, and child support award rates among never-married women. We use several state policies and practices in place throughout the 1980s to examine their effectiveness at increasing paternity establishment rates and at increasing the proportion of unmarried women who have child support awards. We also examine the direct relationship between paternity establishment rates and child support award rates. We estimate these relationships using a variety of specifications, using cross-state variation in child support enforcement to identify the effects of policies. To date, child support remains largely the province of state family law, and, although policies have changed dramatically in response to two decades of federal mandates, state laws and practices still vary.     

Effects of child support and welfare policies on nonmarital teenage childbearing and motherhood

This paper is an assessment of the impact of child support enforcement and welfare policies on nonmarital teenage childbearing and motherhood. We derive four hypotheses about the effects of policies on nonmarital teenage childbearing and motherhood. We propose that teenage motherhood and school enrollment are joint decisions for teenage girls. Based on individual trajectories during ages 12–19, our analysis uses an event history model for nonmarital teenage childbearing and a dynamic model of motherhood that is jointly determined with school enrollment. We find some evidence that child support policies indirectly reduce teen motherhood by increasing the probability of school enrollment, which, in turn, reduces the probability of teen motherhood. This finding suggests that welfare offices may wish to place greater weight on outreach programs that inform more teenagers of the existence of strong child support enforcement measures. Such programs might reduce nonmarital teen motherhood further and thus reduce the need for welfare support and child support enforcement in the long run.

Will workfare work? Job availability for welfare recipients in rural and urban America

Ongoing concern over welfare dependency has stimulated the US Government to enact welfare reform legislation that features work requirements. Under the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996, millions of able-bodied welfare recipients will now be expected to find work within two years. We analyze data from the March 1994 Current Population Survey to address the neglected question of whether a sufficient number of jobs will be available for those looking for work. Using two methods to estimate job availability, and a variety of assumptions about which welfare recipients will be required to work, we estimate that as few as 18 and as many as 54 welfare recipients and other unemployed individuals would be competing for each available job. Separate analyses by residence provided equivocal evidence on whether metropolitan or nonmetropolitan welfare recipients will have the more difficult time finding gainful employment.     

A qualitative study of innovations implemented to improve transition of care from maternity to child and family health (CFH) services in Australia

BackgroundThe transition of care (ToC) from maternity services, particularly from midwifery care to child and family health (CFH) nursing services, is a critical time in the support of women as they transition into early parenting. However significant issues in service provision exist, particularly meeting the needs of women with social and emotional health risk factors. These include insufficient resources, poor communication and information transfer, limited interface between private and public health systems and tension around role boundaries. In response some services are implementing strategies to improve the transition of care from maternity to CFH services.AimThis paper describes a range of innovations developed to improve transition of care between maternity and child and family health services and identifies the characteristics common to all innovations.MethodsData reported were collected in phase three of a mixed methods study investigating the feasibility of implementing a national approach to child and family health services in Australia (CHoRUS study). Data were collected from 33 professionals including midwives, child and family health nurses, allied health staff and managers, at seven sites across four Australian states. Data were analysed thematically, guided by Braun and Clarke's six-step process of thematic analysis.FindingsThe range of innovations implemented included those which addressed; information sharing, the efficient use of funding and resources, development of new roles to improve co-ordination of care, the co-location of services and working together. Four of the seven sites implemented innovations that specifically targeted families with additional needs. Successful implementation was dependent on the preliminary work undertaken which required professionals and/or organisations to work collaboratively.ConclusionImproving the transition of care requires co-ordination and collaboration to ensure families are adequately supported. Collaboration between professionals and services facilitated innovative practice and was core to successful change.     

The influence of market wages and parental history on child labour and schooling in Egypt

This paper examines the influence of adult market wages and having parents who were child labourers on child labour, when this decision is jointly determined with child schooling, using data from Egypt. The empirical results suggest that low adult market wages are key determinants of child labour; a 10% increase in the illiterate male market wage decreases the probability of child labour by 22% for boys and 13% for girls. The findings also indicate the importance of social norms in the intergenerational persistence of child labour: parents who were child labourers themselves are on average 10% more likely to send their children to work. In addition, higher local regional income inequality increases the likelihood of child labour.

Dropping out of post-compulsory education in the UK: an analysis of determinants and outcomes

We analyse the decision to drop out of post-compulsory education over the period 1985–1994 using data from the Youth Cohort Surveys. We show that the dropout rate declined between 1985 and 1994, in spite of the rising participation rate in education, but is still substantial. Dropping out is more or less constant over the period of study, though the risk of dropout does vary with young people’s prior attainment, ethnicity, family background and the state of the labour market. The course of study has a substantial effect on the risk of dropout.

The effect of female migration on infant and child survival in Uganda

This article uses data from the 1996 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey to examine whether migration of women improves the survival chances of their children to age five. We expand on prior research by testing not only the hypothesized positive effect of rural-urban migration, but also the effects of other migration stream behaviours on child survival. Results show that up to 10% of children die before age five and within-group differences in mortality exist among urban and rural children depending on their mother's migration status. Only urban-urban migration was significantly related to child survival, compared to rural non-migrants, after controlling for other factors, although other streams of migration (rural-urban, urban-rural, rural-rural) were positively related to child survival. Generally, migration explains a small component of the variance in child survival. Several other factors, including parents' education, household size, household headship, mother's age at birth, duration of breastfeeding, and place of delivery have a significant predictive power on child survival.     

福利多元主义视角下城市“老漂族”精神赡养问题研究——以广州市三个典型社区为例

本研究聚焦渐趋普遍的“老漂族”群体异地养老现象,关注其精神健康。以福利多元和精神赡养理论为分析框架,对广州市三个老年流动人口较集中地区的“老漂族”进行问卷调查及访谈,通过多元线性回归分析政府、家庭、社区、市场等主体的服务供给对“老漂族”异地养老精神需求产生的影响,剖析“老漂族”异地精神赡养的需求和供给现状。本文的主要结论是,目前的养老福利托底政策和市场补充供给的不足给“老漂族”带来异地养老尤其是精神赡养上一定的困难,建议更多地发挥家庭、社区和社会组织的作用,提倡养老资源供给模式应将物质服务和精神扶助结合起来,实现养老渠道多样化、社会福利供给主体多元化,形成多元供给主体之间的协调与互补,共同支撑起能够惠及“老漂族”异地精神赡养的养老服务体系。     

The impact of infant and child death on subsequent fertility in Ethiopia

This paper uses hazard regression models to assess the impact of experienced infant and child mortality on the risk of subsequent conceptions in Ethiopia. The purpose of this paper is to test for the presence of a fertility response to an infant or child death, net of the effects of truncated breastfeeding on fecundity. Using retrospective birth history data from a national survey in Ethiopia, we find a significantly higher risk of a conception in the months following the death of an index child, even after controlling for postpartum amenorrhoea and breastfeeding status. The fertility response is strongest after the death of the fourth or fifth child, which is when most women in Ethiopia are at or near their desired family size. However, we find no evidence of a fertility response to the death of a nonindex child. We attribute the higher risk of a conception following an index child’s death to the intentional efforts of couples to reduce the waiting time to a next birth and thereby replace the deceased child. However, absent evidence of replacement fertility in response to the death of older nonindex children, we interpret the response to the death of an index child as an emotional response to child loss rather than a conscious strategy to meet a fertility target.

Family structure and child outcomes in the USA and Sweden

Previous research shows that living in a non-intact family is associated with educational disadvantages. This paper compares the relationships between childhood family structure, schooling, and earnings in Sweden and the USA. This comparison is interesting because both family structure and public policies differ significantly. We find a negative relationship between living in a non-intact family and child outcomes, and the estimates are remarkably similar in both countries. After using sibling-difference models, the correlation with family structure is no longer significant. These results cast doubt on the causal interpretation of the negative relationship between non-intact family structures and child outcomes.     

独生子女规模估算及其对政府奖励性支出的影响——以苏州市为例

本文将抽样调查资料与人口普查资料相结合,利用多种统计方法、多方案推算苏州市独生子女存量规模以及未来各年数量,并据此测算了未来各年政府可能的配套奖励性支出。研究结果表明：独生子女大规模进入婚育年龄将势必引起政策生育率的上升,未来各年政府用于独生子女家庭及其父母养老等计划生育政策奖励性支出将逐年增加．财政负担日益加重。建议政府对计划生育配套奖励政策适时进行调整,由现行的提供物质奖励向提供优质服务和社会保障转变。     

Household income and other socio-economic determinants of long-term institutional care among older adults in Finland

An analysis of longitudinal data on Finnish older adults shows that the probability of admission to long-term institutional care is inversely associated with household income: women in the lowest income quintile are 35 per cent more likely, and men in the lowest quintile 59 per cent more likely to be admitted than those in the highest quintile, independently of age, first language, and area characteristics. Controlling for other socio-demographic characteristics and medical conditions reduces these differences by 59 and 78 per cent, respectively. Being a renter and living in poorly equipped housing increases the probability of admission to institutional care, while the possession of a car and living in a detached house decreases it, independently of other factors. These results imply that the future need for institutional care will depend not only on the increasing numbers of older people but also on socio-economic factors and housing conditions.