基于投入产出技术的能源效率新指标——生产能耗综合指数

随着全世界对能源需求的增加,以及全球气候变化之于人类的负面影响逐渐加剧,能源效率的高低已成为衡量一国经济、政治和环境发展的重要标志。但是现有的能源效率指标在国内国际比较中并不能更好的发挥作用,鉴于此,本文在投入产出技术框架下,提出生产能耗综合指数这一比较能源效率的新指标,以此能更加完善我国能源效率的评价体系,更加科学合理的指导经济建设,指明节能工作的主要方向。     

A woman leader's experience in Korea

The methodology described in this article is of significance to HRD scholars seeking to better understand employee perceptions of the work environments in which practitioners seek to develop employees. Diagnostic instruments tailored to specific work settings can be developed simply and inexpensively with the approach described. A summated rating scale was developed to measure employee perception of a broad range of work environment variables that research has shown influence employee development and performance. An employee perception-based factor model was then developed based on factor analysis of data gathered with the study instrument. Analysis of the data indicated an interpretable five-factor model. Based on the salient variables of the factor model, a shorter diagnostic instrument was developed specifically for the work setting used in the study. The approach developed in this study can mitigate the obvious problem that arises if one attempts to generalize a single set of work environment factors as representing the perceptions of work groups which may have significantly different demographic or occupational characteristics, work settings and cultures. While the specific factor model and diagnostic tool generated in this study cannot be generalized beyond the study population, the instrumentation and methodology can be used to develop unique factor models in other work settings to provide the basis for diagnostic instruments appropriate for those settings and work groups.     

The Performance Effects of an Ability-Based Approach to Goal Assignment

Some organizations have begun to target their goal-setting method more closely to the ability levels of their employees. In this article, we report the results of a laboratory study of 138 undergraduate students, which shows that these “ability-based” goals are more effective at improving performance than a “one goal for all” approach, where everyone is assigned the same performance target. Results from repeated measure tests and other analysis of variance tests show that lower-ability individuals in the ability-based goal condition outperform those in the one goal for all condition. Lower- and moderate-ability participants in the one goal for all condition also experienced larger decreases in performance in later rounds.     

拯救哭泣的土地——抗击亚洲的沙漠化(英文)

1.D efin ition of D esertificationCalled“a major threat to humanity”by the UnitedNations,desertification is one of the world’s most a-larm ing processes of environmental degradation.De-fined by the United Nations Convention to Combat De-sertification(U…     

电子政务服务能力测评模型的结构与关系分析

结合我国电子政务服务的应用分析,提出电子政务服务能力的概念。由此,从服务提供方的视角构建了包括3个维度5个方面的电子政务服务能力测评模型;进一步应用探索性因子分析、两阶段验证性因子分析、路径分析方法,对模型的结构及各组成部分间的关系进行了实证。结果表明,模型能很好地解释我国电子政务服务能力,为电子政务服务能力的管理提供了一种测量工具,为服务能力的改善提供了思路。     

Summarizing Risk Using Risk Measures and Risk Indices

Our society is fascinated with risk in many different areas and disciplines. One of the main ways to describe and communicate the level of risk is through risk indices, which summarize risk using numbers or categories such as words, letters, or colors. These indices are used to communicate risks to the public, understand how risk is changing over time, compare among different risks, and support decision making. Given the different methods to construct risk indices, including flawed methods such as risk matrices, this article develops specific steps that analysts can follow to create a risk index. This article emphasizes the importance of describing risk with a probability distribution, developing a numerical risk measure that summarizes the probability distribution, and finally translating the risk measure to an index. Measuring the risk is the most difficult part and requires the analyst to summarize a probability distribution into one or possibly a few numbers. The risk measure can then be transformed to a numerical or categorical index. I apply the method outlined in this article to construct a risk index that compares the risk of fatalities in aviation and highway transportation.     

中国经济政策不确定性的跨国动态溢出效应

中国作为世界第二、亚洲最大的经济体，在国际事务中发挥的作用日益突出，其经济政策波动对其他国家的影响也日益显著。本文基于1997年1月至2017年5月经济政策不确定性（Economic Policy Uncertainty，EPU）指数，运用DCC-GARCH模型分析了中国与美国、日本和英国的经济政策不确定性的动态溢出效应。研究表明，样本国家的EPU指数波动率呈现尖峰、厚尾、非对称的特征，因而更适用非对称多元t分布DCC-GARCH模型；中国经济政策不确定性对美国、日本和英国均有一定程度的正向溢出效应，但影响程度不一。进一步分析表明，中美间EPU指数的动态相关性高于中英和中日，中美和中英间的EPU指数动态相关系数走势较为相似，且趋向稳定；受地缘政治关系的影响，中日间的EPU指数动态相关系数走势明显异于中美和中英。     

Business Innovation through Customer Value Creation-Type Businesses

In the last few years, Japan has seen rapid growth in the multipoint connection service market, which is associated with multimedia videoconferencing systems. Behind this trend was the birth and explosive growth of the multipoint video communications market, which was initiated by NTT, Japan's largest telecommunications carrier, in alliance with a joint venture business (NTT Phoenix Network Communication Inc.: hereafter, NTT Phoenix) comprised of heterogeneous U.S.-Japan joint businesses. This article takes up the case of the world's largest multi-point connection venture business, and considers how an NTT Phoenix's customer value creation-type business created a new video network service market in Japan.     

Establishing a financial objective— A practical approach

Just about the only feature of the business environment which has remained constant in recent years is its rate of change. In particular, changes in the internal and external values of the world's leading currencies, in taxation laws, and in accounting practice, have combined to confuse the tasks of objective setting and performance measurement.

This article sets out to clear a path through that confusion. It considers the various factors to be taken into account when establishing a financial objective for use as a criterion in resource allocation decisions. It shows how, in the U.K., a growth rate objective is an essential companion to a return on investment objective.     

Conflict,collaboration and commitment in British industrial relations

In this article, the author takes to task those who use the indicator of “strike activity” to measure the state of industrial relations. The case study is specifically that of the United Kingdom, but it has applications elsewhere as well.When this is done, and when it is pointed out that such a measure ignores complexities like the distribution curve of strikes and the qualitative gains from negotiations, it becomes clear that strike-prone British industry is a chimera.Nonetheless, Marchington warns against complacency. Even techniques of increased employee involvement and workplace flexibility, like briefing committees and quality circles, may not bring equal benefits to employers and employees.     

The Cultural Dimension of Metagovernance: Why Governance Doctrines May Fail

National cultures often reflect a preference for one of the ideal-types hierarchical, network or market governance. A comparison of four similar policy cases in the UK, the Netherlands, Germany and the European Commission reveals that successful public managers under certain conditions are able to construct and design productive mixtures of the three styles. They applied metagovernance, a process of designing and managing situationally optimal combinations of the three competing, and to an extent mutually undermining, governance styles. Their national cultures and politico-administrative traditions co-determined the governance mixture which would work in a given situation. The research reinforces the case already made by others, that governance doctrines cannot be transferred as ‘best practices’ from one nation to another without adaptation. The article suggests that the future does not lie in inventing new management and governance doctrines, but in investing in post-dogmatic public management.     

Applying the Partitioned Multiobjective Risk Method (PMRM) to Portfolio Selection

The analysis of risk-return tradeoffs and their practical applications to portfolio analysis paved the way for Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which won Harry Markowitz a 1992 Nobel Prize in Economics. A typical approach in measuring a portfolio's expected return is based on the historical returns of the assets included in a portfolio. On the other hand, portfolio risk is usually measured using volatility, which is derived from the historical variance-covariance relationships among the portfolio assets. This article focuses on assessing portfolio risk, with emphasis on extreme risks. To date, volatility is a major measure of risk owing to its simplicity and validity for relatively small asset price fluctuations. Volatility is a justified measure for stable market performance, but it is weak in addressing portfolio risk under aberrant market fluctuations. Extreme market crashes such as that on October 19, 1987 ("Black Monday") and catastrophic events such as the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 that led to a four-day suspension of trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) are a few examples where measuring risk via volatility can lead to inaccurate predictions. Thus, there is a need for a more robust metric of risk. By invoking the principles of the extreme-risk-analysis method through the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM), this article contributes to the modeling of extreme risks in portfolio performance. A measure of an extreme portfolio risk, denoted by f(4), is defined as the conditional expectation for a lower-tail region of the distribution of the possible portfolio returns. This article presents a multiobjective problem formulation consisting of optimizing expected return and f(4), whose solution is determined using Evolver-a software that implements a genetic algorithm. Under business-as-usual market scenarios, the results of the proposed PMRM portfolio selection model are found to be compatible with those of the volatility-based model. However, under extremely unfavorable market conditions, results indicate that f(4) can be a more valid measure of risk than volatility.     

Zombies and Originals: How Cultural Theory Informs Stakeholder Management

The question of stakeholder salience has recently resurfaced in the suggestion that the ethical foundations of corporate cultures result in stakeholder cultures that largely explain how firms allocate resources among stakeholders. The present article seeks to complement this novel approach to understanding stakeholder management by adding insights from the multilevel influences that create the corporate culture in the first place, and ultimately affect managers in their stakeholder decisions. This article draws on cultural theory to examine how the individuals who compose firms present group and grid solidarity that results in cultural biases in the corporate culture. These cultural biases—individualism, hierarchy, fatalism, and egalitarianism—are then paired with the stakeholder cultures they enable, and inferences are extracted concerning the salience managers are likely to accord to various classes of stakeholders as a result. Future research and managerial implications stemming from this new view on stakeholder management conclude this article.     

Health care reform. Pan American Uni-Care Health Insurance Plan

Something is definitely wrong with the American health care system. Too many citizens are denied health care, and health care costs continue to rise at an uncomfortable and intolerable rate. Ensuring care for all is a paramount goal. There is no way to simultaneously cover everyone; leave the reimbursement of physicians unrestrained; ensure instantaneous access to every imaginable high-technology service; subsidize the world's costliest and least efficient health bureaucracy; and contain costs. Widespread dissatisfaction in all quarters--physicians, hospitals, third-party payers, regulators and consumers--has led to an avalanche of reform proposals. Rapidly changing social, political, and economic environments; rising fiscal pressure; and an evolving understanding of the major determinants of health have also created pressure for changes. There are some new and hopeful signs that America is facing up to the need for changes in the health care delivery system. The Pan American Uni-Care Health Plan that is described in this article may serve as a reasonable balance among these competing priorities.     

Cancer Anxiety and the Perception of Risk in Alarmed Communities

Cancer is a significant public health topic and is frequently a factor in public reactions to environmental hazards. It may be reasonable to suggest that a unique form of health anxiety exists - one specific to cancer. In this article, we explore a measure of cancer anxiety that has applicability to risk perception in the specific context of communities that are alarmed over suspect cancer rates thought to be associated with environmental hazards. A literature search was used to identify survey questions previously used to measure cancer worry, fear, anxiety, etc. A list of 24 items was employed in a mail survey sent to 30 communities in which cancer rates were under investigation (part of a broader study). An analysis of the dataset of 1,111 responses yields two versions of a cancer anxiety scale: one an additive combination of 21 items (alpha= 0.77) and the other a two-factor model consisting of nine- and four-item subscales (alpha= 0.74 and 0.69). The resulting scales are evaluated for their ability to predict perception of risk from the environmental hazards in these cases. Controlling for age, sex, and cancer status, the scales explain between 2% and 10% of risk perception (full R(2) values ranging from 0.17 to 0.24). Given the range of concepts required to model risk perception, we conclude that this measure of cancer anxiety is sufficiently reliable and robust to be recommended for use in circumstances involving hazards associated with cancer. Other uses and further development of the measure are discussed.     

A Learning Curve Analysis of Expert System Use*

In this article, we study how an expert system affects novice problem solving in a financial risk analysis domain. We demonstrate that novice performance is improved after exposure to an expert system. Further, we show that novice performance continues to improve when the system is withdrawn. By comparing learning curves for people with exposure to those without, we can assess how much the system has benefitted its users. We demonstrate a quantitative methodology to measure the increment of learning due to the use of an information technology. We also explore the issue of how expertise is transferred from the system to the user.     

Leadership and Overload Stress Orientations of German and Russian Working Adults: Does Government Work Experience Make a Difference?

This paper examines task, relationship, and overload stress orientations of people in the high-context cultures of Russia and in the low-context cultures of Germany based on their government work experience. A Two-way ANOVA methodology is used for hypotheses testing in this research. As a result of the comparative, cross-national analysis of 462 responses, some significant differences were found between the two samples. Russians have higher scores on task and relationship orientations than German respondents. There is a marginally significant difference in the task scores between respondents who have government experience and those who do not. Respondents who have government experience are more task-oriented and experience more stress than those who do not have government experience. Finding reveals significant interaction between government experience and country in the task scores. Literature on German and Russian cultures is presented along with practical applications, suggestions, and implications for future studies.     

Risk Perceptions,Optimism, and Natural Hazards

This article uses the panel survey developed for the Health and Retirement Study to evaluate whether Hurricane Andrew in 1992 altered longevity expectations of respondents who lived in Dade County, Florida, the location experiencing the majority of about 20 billion dollars of damage. Longevity expectations have been used as a proxy measure for both individual subjective risk assessments and dispositional optimism. The panel structure allows comparison of those respondents' longevity assessments when the timing of their survey responses bracket Andrew with those of individuals where it does not. After controlling for health effects, the results indicate a significant reduction in longevity expectations due to the information respondents appear to have associated with the storm.