Regional mismatch and unemployment: theory and evidence from Italy, 1977–1998

We describe the functioning of a two-region economy characterized by asymmetric wage setting. Labour market tightness in the leading-region affects wages in the whole economy. In equilibrium, net labour demand shifts towards the leading region raise unemployment elsewhere and leave regional wages unchanged, causing an increase in aggregate unemployment. Based on SHIW micro-data on earnings, we find strong evidence that wages in Italy only respond to Northern unemployment. We estimate that around 33% of the increase in Italian unemployment during 1977–1998 can be explained by regional mismatch, mainly due to an excess labour supply growth in the South.

NIVAH: a composite index measuring violence and harm in the U.S.

The National Index of Violence and Harm (NIVAH) tracks levels of violence and harm in the United States and identifies trends over the study period 1995–2003. NIVAH is comprised of nineteen variables in the areas of interpersonal, intrapersonal, institutional and structural violence and harm as experienced by people in the U.S. Two composite indexes are formed to describe overall trends in the realms of personal and societal violence. In addition to describing the Index’s construction and most recent conclusions, various methodological issues and their impacts on index findings are investigated.

Population dynamics and monetary policy

This paper shows that in a general equilibrium model with interest-rate feedback rules of the Taylor-type population dynamics give rise to multiple steady states. Under an active monetary policy, real determinacy occurs only around the steady state with zero net financial wealth, where aggregate consumption is equally distributed among agents of different generations. By contrast, in a neighborhood of the steady state displaying a positive stock of financial wealth and intergenerational inequality, real determinacy requires monetary policy to be passive. Changes in the demographic profile of the economy are shown to have relevant implications for the aggregate accumulation of wealth.

Forecasting German mortality using panel data procedures

Reliable forecasts of life expectancies are of importance for the financial stability of social security systems and the life insurance industry. A discrete-time stochastic process and a continuous-time stochastic process are proposed to model the dynamics of German mortality rates from which life expectancies are calculated. More precisely, a panel data model is utilized, which distinguishes between a common time effect and a common age effect. The model is easy to fit, yields interpretable parameters, and allows for a simple analysis of the forecast error. The main applications of the model are the forecast of mortality rates—and the resulting life expectancies—and the pricing of mortality derivatives.

Investment in health when health is stochastic

This paper applies stochastic control theory to the Grossman model of investment in health to characterize the case of a serious illness, i.e., one that permanently reduces the individual’s stock of health capital. Health itself is modelled as a stochastic variable, whose variation over time is determined partly by a deterministic factor and partly by a random factor with a Poisson distribution. After setting out the equations for the deterministic and stochastic approaches, phase diagrams illustrate how the introduction of uncertainty alters the model. The framework is also used to consider the effect of the introduction of a vaccine.

A Demographic Analysis of the Rise in the Prevalence of the US Population Overweight and/or Obese

Using data from the National Health Interview Survey for years spanning 1976 and 2001, this paper presents an age–period–cohort analysis of weight gain throughout the life cycle. We find that while all ages experienced an increase in the prevalence of those overweight and/or obese, the prevalence among young adults has grown at a faster rate than that of older age groups. The increases in body mass index are primarily due to period effects, not cohort or age effects. From the ordered logistical regression analyses, we find that the protective influence of factors such as education, income, and age on an individual’s body mass index have decreased over time. The analyses suggest that the increase in the prevalence of those overweight or obese is a phenomenon experienced by all demographic groups in the US, albeit to differing degrees.

Explaining trends in UK immigration

Since the 1970s Britain has gone from being a country of net emigration to one of net immigration, with a trend increase in immigration of more than 100,000 per year. This paper represents the first attempt to model the variations in net migration for British and for foreign citizens, across countries and over time. A simple economic model, which includes the selection effects of differing income distributions at home and abroad, largely accounts for the variations in the data. The results suggest that although improved economic performance in the UK relative to overseas has tended to increase immigration, rising UK inequality has had an even larger effect. Immigration policies at home and abroad have also increased net immigration, particularly in the 1990s.

Temporary Employment and Social Inequality in Canada: Exploring Intersections of Gender, Race and Immigration Status

Using data from the 2002–2004 waves of Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, this article investigates the consequences of different types of temporary employment—fixed-term or contract, casual, agency and seasonal employment—for differently situated workers in Canada. Attention to intersecting social locations of gender, race and immigrant status helps capture the complex implications of temporary work for inequality. In particular, it highlights the salience of gender relations in shaping workers’ experience of insecurity in different types of temporary employment.

How important is homeland education for refugees’ economic position in The Netherlands?

We use data on refugees admitted to The Netherlands that include registration of education in their homeland by immigration officers. Such data are seldom available. We investigate the quality and reliability of the registrations and then use them to assess effects on refugees’ economic position during the first 5 years after arrival. The most remarkable finding is the absence of returns to higher education.

Imperfect goods and labor markets, and the union wage gap

Existing theoretical literature fails to explain satisfactorily the differences between the pay of workers who are covered by collective agreements and others who are not. This study aims at providing a model framework that is amenable to an analysis of this issue. Our general-equilibrium approach integrates a dual labor market and a two-sector product market. The results suggest that the so-called “union wage gap” is largely determined by the degree of centralization of the bargains and, to a somewhat lesser extent, by the expenditure share of the unionized sector's goods.

Labor market transitions of immigrants with emphasis on marginalization and self-employment

In developed countries, immigrants are more likely to be nonemployed and self-employed compared to natives. Based on register data of male immigrants in Denmark, we performed a detailed investigation of the immigrant–native difference in transition patterns across labor market states. We find that a high proportion of immigrants from non-Western countries tend to be marginalized relative to natives, and they tend to use self-employment to escape marginalization.

On voters’ attitudes towards unemployment insurance subsidies across regions: a Canadian simulation

The Canadian unemployment insurance program is designed to reflect the varying risk of joblessness across regions. Regions that are considered low-risk areas subsidize higher-risk ones. A region’s risk is typically proxied by its relative unemployment rate. We use a dynamic, heterogeneous-agent model calibrated to Canada to analyze voters’ preferences between a uniformly generous unemployment insurance and the current system with asymmetric generosity. We find that Canada’s unusual unemployment insurance system is surprisingly close to what voters would choose in spite of the possibilities of shirking and self-insurance through asset buildup.

Money Does not Buy Happiness: Or Does It? A Reassessment Based on the Combined Effects of Wealth,Income and Consumption

The paper uses household economic panel data from five countries—Australia, Britain, Germany, Hungary and The Netherlands—to provide a reassessment of the impact of economic well-being on happiness. The main conclusion is that happiness is considerably more affected by economic circumstances than previously believed. In all five countries wealth affects life satisfaction more than income. In the countries for which consumption data are available (Britain and Hungary), non-durable consumption expenditures also prove at least as important to happiness as income.

Avowed Happiness in Confucian Asia: Ascertaining its Distribution,Patterns, and Sources

This study reviewed three philosophical accounts of happiness, and then tested those accounts with the Asiabarometer surveys conducted in six Confucian societies during the summer of 2006. Statistical analyses of these surveys reveal that East Asians tend to experience happiness to a greater extent when they experience enjoyment together with achievement and/or satisfaction. The preponderance of such multi-dimensional conceptions in all those societies poses a direct challenge to a single dimensional account of happiness in the West. The analyses also reveal that positive assessments of interpersonal relationships matter more than the amount of knowledge or wealth in living a happy life in Confucian societies.

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The substitutability of labor between immigrants and natives in the Canadian labor market: circa 1995

This paper examines the substitutability or complementarity between Canadian-born and immigrant workers. These are examined by estimating a set of wage equations using a generalized Leontief production function. The paper finds that, in general, there is no displacement of Canadian-born workers by immigrants. Recent immigrants affect the native-born positively, while older immigrants are neither substitute nor complement for natives. However, the effects differ across industries. Overall, the evidence that immigrants harm the opportunities of native-born workers is scant.

The political economy of social exclusion, with implications for immigration policy

Minorities such as ethnic and immigration groups have often been subject to exclusion through labor market discrimination, residential and employment segregation policies, business ownership regulations, restrictions on political participation, access to public services, and more. This paper studies the dynamics of minority exclusion. From the viewpoint of the dominant majority, the exclusion decision balances the motive to redistribute income in its favor and the interest in avoiding potential civic unrest or even violent confrontation with the minority. The analysis also has implications for immigration policies, suggesting that they have to take this group dynamics into account.

“Backslanted X” fertility dynamics and macroeconomics

A large number of pairs of countries exhibit a dynamic pattern in which: (1) Fertility in both countries declines across time; (2) initially, one country has a higher fertility and a lower per-capita income than the other; and (3) in time, as per-capita incomes converge, fertility rates in the poorer country become lower than in the richer one. This article documents the prevalence of such dynamics and offers a theoretical model in which these dynamics emerge endogenously. Assuming differences in the degree of utility substitution between consumption and rearing children across countries generates all three components of these dynamics.

Spatial Regression Models for Demographic Analysis

While spatial data analysis has received increasing attention in demographic studies, it remains a difficult subject to learn for practitioners due to its complexity and various unresolved issues. Here we give a practical guide to spatial demographic analysis, with a focus on the use of spatial regression models. We first summarize spatially explicit and implicit theories of population dynamics. We then describe basic concepts in exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial regression modeling through an illustration of population change in the 1990s at the minor civil division level in the state of Wisconsin. We also review spatial regression models including spatial lag models, spatial error models, and spatial autoregressive moving average models and use these models for analyzing the data example. We finally suggest opportunities and directions for future research on spatial demographic theories and practice.

Ability and rates of return to schooling—making use of the Swedish enlistment battery test

Using the Swedish military enlistment test, this paper estimates the return to schooling for individuals belonging to different parts of the ability distribution. It also attempts to predict whether an endogenous test score causes bias in the “ability-specific” returns to schooling that varies with the test score. A significant finding is that a higher score in the test is associated with a higher return to schooling, but that the positive association is diminishing in the test score. In general, the bias in the ability-specific returns to schooling does not seem to vary with the test score level.

Extremism within the family

This paper considers an economic analysis of intergenerational transition of ethnic and social trait. We consider the level of social traits chosen by parents and its effect on their children’s choice of ethnic and social traits when reaching adulthood. We develop a theory that suggests that parents will chose extreme ethnic and social traits to increase the cost that their children will pay if they wish to deviate from their parents’ “ideal.” The extreme choice of the ethnic social traits of parents has an effect on the segregation of minorities and migrants.