2010年大选:伊拉克前途命运的转折点

2005年大选之后的经历给伊拉克国内各政治力量留下了深刻教训,他们意识到国家的安全和稳定需要一个有什叶派、逊尼派以及库尔德人代表参加的联合政府。2010年大选产生了一个联合政府,该政府将有机会实现国家统一,并向邻国传递积极的信号,即伊拉克不会对它们产生威胁,同时新政府也将面临巨大挑战。选举产生的政府将承担起领导国家走向主权独立的历史责任,并努力提高伊拉克在该地区的地位和影响力,尤其是在2011年底美军撤出伊拉克之后。2010年12月21日,新内阁获得国民议会投票表决通过,从而开启了多党派联合执政的架构。     

血雨腥风中的伊拉克大选

伊拉克选举委员会发言人阿亚尔,于2005年2月13日宣布了伊拉克大选的结果:什叶派政党联盟“伊拉克团结联盟”获得407.5万张选票,约占48% ,位居第一;库尔德政党联盟获得217.5万张选票,居第二位;阿 拉 维 领 导 的 政 党 联 盟 获 得116.8万张选票,居第三位。这么一来,在伊拉克过渡国民议会275个议席的分配上,伊拉克团结联盟将获得132席,库尔德政党联盟占71席,阿拉维的政党联盟占38席。 2005年1月30日举行 的伊拉克大选,是根据2004年3月8日通过的伊拉克临时宪法而安排的。此次选举产生的伊拉克过渡国民议会,将主要有两个任务,一是选举产生新的…     

伊拉克议会大选：改写历史，还是重蹈覆辙？

3月7日,伊拉克国民议会选举投票在炸弹爆炸声中照样进行,大约6000多名来自伊拉克不同政治派别和宗教背景的候选人竞逐325个国民议会席位。伊拉克此次大选之所以备受各方关注,是因为它既肩负着多重使命,同时又包含着多种选择。选举结果不仅直接决定伊拉克未来四年的政局走向,还将深刻影响到伊拉克未来的国家命运。大选,改写历史还是重蹈覆辙,将取决于伊拉克举国上下的政治智慧和勇气。     

伊拉克战争以来中国与伊拉克的关系

伊战前中伊两国间保持着长期的友好交往。伊战结束后，中国积极参与了联合国倡导的伊拉克重建，并与美国等西方国家及俄国、阿拉伯国家合作，与伊拉克新政权建立了良好的关系。中国公司也积极参与了伊拉克的经济重建。与战前相比，中伊经济关系发生重大变化，即贸易规模迅速扩大，能源合作的地位上升，中国从贸易顺差变为逆差，而中国公司的投资从一般制造业和建筑承包转向能源和高层次的制造业。中国对伊拉克新政权的外交政策和经济合作对于伊的稳定和发展起到了积极作用，同时保证了中国在伊的权益，在2014年6月以来伊拉克的动荡中，中国和伊拉克共同努力妥善保障了中国的利益。     

美国对伊动武难点多

美国打击了阿富汗塔利班政权后,在抛出"邪恶轴心"说的同时,矛头直指伊拉克,表示决心要推翻萨达姆政权,并派副总统切尼到中东游说,寻求阿拉伯国家的支持.但是,从伊拉克的反对派力量、阿拉伯国家的反应及世界舆论看,美国要对伊拉克动武有相当多的难点.     

记1958年伊拉克革命胜利与艾森豪威尔主义破产

20世纪50年代，阿拉伯国家独立运动风起云涌，继1952年7月埃及革命成功之后，最突出的事件是1958年7月伊拉克革命胜利。当时我在埃及和叙利亚统一后的大马士革总领馆帮助调研工作，深深感受到这一事件对阿拉伯世界的巨大冲击，它导致了艾森豪威尔主义破产。现将有关情况追述于下，可能有助于对当前伊拉克和中东局势的了解。     

聚焦俄罗斯总统大选

2012年是一个世界性的选举之年,全球有58个国家要在今年进行政府或议会选举,占到联合国成员国四分之一强的规模,这无疑将对全球经济和地缘政治产生重大影响。俄罗斯是今年最早进行大选的国家,3月5日,俄罗斯中     

伊拉克泛阿拉伯主义探析

泛阿拉伯主义萌芽于奥斯曼帝国统治时期,主张阿拉伯人是一个民族共同体,目标是建立一个统一独立的阿拉伯国家。本文简要论述了泛阿拉伯民族主义的兴起和发展;伊拉克和泛阿拉伯主义的关系;伊拉克复兴党的泛阿拉伯主义实践,最后分析了伊拉克在历史上长期成为泛阿拉伯主义民族中心和泛阿拉伯主义在伊拉克恒久不衰的原因。     

海湾地区“什叶派新月带”兴起的宗教政治影响

伊拉克战争推翻萨达姆政权造成的一个最重要结果就是,解除了伊拉克对伊朗什叶派神权政府的多年遏制,还使得伊拉克什叶派在战后政治重建中逐步占据了政治主导地位.随着伊朗什叶派政权和伊拉克什叶派势力的联系日益加强,他们已在海湾地区形成了一股强大的什叶派宗教政治势力.在其影响下,周边其他逊尼派国家内部的什叶派民众纷纷要求扩大政治权力,逊尼派君主制国家政府也感到了什叶派神权思想反对君主制度的严峻压力.目前,正在日益兴起并标志着伊朗伊斯兰革命第二阶段的"什叶派新月带",已经改变了海湾地区什叶派长期遭受逊尼派压制的传统局面,并直接关系到拥有世界最大石油资源的海湾地区的安全秩序和政治前景.     

海湾地区“什叶派新月带”兴起的宗教政治影响

伊拉克战争推翻萨达姆政权造成的一个最重要结果就是,解除了伊拉克对伊朗什叶派神权政府的多年遏制,还使得伊拉克什叶派在战后政治重建中逐步占据了政治主导地位。随着伊朗什叶派政权和伊拉克什叶派势力的联系日益加强,他们已在海湾地区形成了一股强大的什叶派宗教政治势力。在其影响下,周边其他逊尼派国家内部的什叶派民众纷纷要求扩大政治权力,逊尼派君主制国家政府也感到了什叶派神权思想反对君主制度的严峻压力。目前,正在日益兴起并标志着伊朗伊斯兰革命第二阶段的“什叶派新月带”,已经改变了海湾地区什叶派长期遭受逊尼派压制的传统局面,并直接关系到拥有世界最大石油资源的海湾地区的安全秩序和政治前景。     

Political equilibria with electoral uncertainty

After an election, when party positions and strengths are known, there may be a centrally located large party at the core position. Theory suggests that such a core party is able to form a minority government and control policy. In the absence of a core party, theory suggests that the outcome be a lottery associated with coalition risk. Stochastic models of elections typically indicate that all parties, in equilibrium, will adopt positions at the electoral center. This paper first presents an existence theorem for local Nash equilibrium (LNE) under vote maximization, and then constructs a more general model using the notion of coalition risk. The model allows for the balancing of office and policy motivations. Empirical analyses of elections in the Netherlands and Israel are used as illustrations of the model and of the concept of a structurally stable LNE. The figures and tables are reproduced from Schofield and Sened (2006) with permission from Cambridge University Press.     

The elites’ collective subjectivities of the history of ethnic politics in Malaysia

ABSTRACT

Malaysia is one of the multi-ethnic, multi-cultural and multi-religious countries in Southeast Asia. Due to the pluralistic nature of Malaysia, it has a political structure based on ethnic politics. The ethnic preferential policies affected most domains of this country. The objective of this article is to examine the origin and background of ethnic politics in Malaysia. Findings of this study indicate that, ethnic politics originated during the British colonial period, it became a tool used by the Barisan Nasional for the legitimacy of regime. Moreover, ethnic politics in Malaysia today is intertwined with religion. Besides, there is the dilemma of the choice between the interest of certain ethnic group and national interests. However, with the opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan won the election in 9th May, UMNO-led BN lost power and interrupted its 61 years control, which leaves us an interesting topic to think about the future of Malaysian ethnic politics.     

The politics of immigration policy in Israel

"This article examines the policies adopted by the former Likud government--and largely continued by the present Labour-led coalition government which took office in the second half of 1992--to absorb the 400,000 new immigrants (most from the former Soviet Union) who arrived in Israel between 1989 and 1992. As part of that examination, we will critically review the major features of current absorption policies, such as the policy of 'direct absorption', the 'basket of absorption services' provided as a right to new immigrants, and immigration-related housing policies. In addition, we will explore the effects of employment policy on the new immigrant population." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

A new model of coalition formation

In this paper, a new model of multidimensional coalition formation in politics is presented. The model provides an opportunity to analyze a number of different kinds of issues at the same time. A policy space consists of a finite number of independent sub-spaces (policy spaces on certain issues), which can be multidimensional. Any policy sub-space on a certain sub-issue can be either a Euclidean space or (in principle) any other type of set. So, it is possible to include issues which cannot be represented by a Euclidean space or a fixed sum. A government is defined as a pair consisting of a majority coalition and a policy supported by this coalition. The majority coalition may be not minimal winning. Each party is allowed to give one qualification to a policy on a certain issue and to a majority coalition: desirable of a certain degree, acceptable, or unacceptable. By representing party preferences the way we do, we can include both rent-seeking and idealistic motivations in one consistent model. We define the value of a policy/coalition/government to a party, and the notions of a feasible and stable policy/coalition/government. The model uses party preferences in order to predict government policy. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of a stable government are investigated. Moreover, some alternative definitions of a stable government are introduced, and relations between these definitions and the chosen definition of a stable government are established.For Agnieszka Rusinowska the research for this paper was done during a stay as a Marie Curie fellow at Tilburg University, Department of Philosophy.     

The elephant in the room is awake and takes things personally: The North Korean nuclear threat and the general public's estimation of American diplomacy

The general audience for a global crisis can become a grassroots force in the ultimate fate of policy decisions. Focusing on the North Korean nuclear crisis case, certain contingent factors (dominant coalition characteristics, external threat, and external public characteristics) were overall strong predictors for public estimation about the government stance. Further, perception of situational factors (external threat and external public characteristics) was a stronger predictor for the participants’ stance estimation than perception of predisposing factors (dominant coalition characteristics). Implications for international diplomacy were discussed.     

The Alliance for Jobs in Germany: The Promise and Failure of Gender Mainstreaming

SUMMARY

The German Alliance for Jobs, Education and Competitiveness, a new policy instrument for reducing unemployment, was introduced by the red-green coalition government in 1998. In 2000, this policy instrument was abandoned, largely because business, labor, and government could not find sufficient common ground to continue working together. I argue that this policy instrument had the potential to affect the female workforce positively but that leaders from all sectors failed to incorporate gender considerations. In my view, the German economy will continue to lag behind its competitors unless it adopts gender mainstreaming, increases opportunities for women, and transforms its economy into a more service-oriented economy.     

The evolution of French immigration policy after May 1981

Changes and continuities in French immigration policies, following the assumption of power by the socialist government in 1981, are described. Attention is focused on the political implications of immigration and on the role of immigrants in French politics. Efforts to restrict immigration to France were initiated in 1931, but clandestine immigration, especially from Portugal, remained largely unchecked for 4 decades. In the early 1970s, stricter enforcement measures were adopted, but these measures met with considerable international and national opposition. In 1977, the government altered its approach to immigration by offering financial aid to help illegal migrants return to their countries of origin. These efforts met with little success, and in 1980 the government initiated measures to promote the integration of immigrants into French society. The socialistic government basically adhered to the immigration policies of the preceding government. The current government seeks: 1) to stop further illegal immigration through the intensification of border controls, 2) to grant amnesty to illegal aliens who currently reside in the country and who meet certain employment requirements, 3) to penalize employers who hire illegal aliens or who contract to bring illegal aliens into the country, and 4) to improve living conditions for legal immigrants. The politicalization of immigration has increased in recent years. Current issues center on the human and political rights of migrants and on arbitary administrative efforts to control immigration. It was expected that migrants would acquire political rights after the 1981 election; however, this expectation was not realized, and the political status of immigrants remains an unsettled issue. Consequently migrants have become pawns in the political struggle between different groups in the population both at the national and the local level. Immigration threatens to become an explosive issue. At the same time, migrants themselves are playing an increasingly prominent role in political activities, such as rent strikes and protest movements.     

The election of Jewish deputies in Vilna in 1818: government projects and Jewish claims

This article focuses on the election of the so-called deputies of the Jewish people in Vil'na (Vilnius) in 1818. At the time, the Russian government perceived Jewish society as a “state within a state” with its own secret government. Russian rule tried to legalise and control that imagined government or to neutralise and repress it. The Jewish elite used these mental constructs of the Russian ruling circles and positioned themselves as the holders of the “Jewish rule,” demanding the usual prerogatives of nobility.     

From tragedy to triumph: a segue to community building for children and families

In 2000, more than 60 nonprofit agencies, health care providers, government officials, and community advocates in Tarrant County, Texas, came together to work for systemic change in the mental health care system. The coalition, known as the Mental Health Connection, began working toward a "No Wrong Door" approach to mental health services, which required aggressive coordination between federal, private, and nonprofit resources. The result is a five- to six-year plan for implementation of a new systems of care model for children with severe emotional disturbances and their families. The Mental Health Connection also focuses on legislative advocacy to bring about necessary policy changes at the local, state, and federal levels. Finally, the coalition focuses on developing sustainable revenue streams that will allow the new systems to remain in place once the group accomplishes the initial mission of the Mental Health Connection.     

中国(上海)自由贸易试验区试行GPA规则的建议

在上海自贸试验区内按照GPA规则开放政府采购市场,一方面可以扩大我国的对外开放,充实上海自贸试验区的内涵;另一方面也可发挥上海自贸区先行先试的"制度试验田"作用,为我国加入GPA后按GPA规则实施政府采购积累经验。对照GPA规则,上海自贸区管理机构实施政府采购,首先必须解决以下问题:现行有关法律在上海自贸区范围内的适用、上海自贸区政府采购体制调整和制度建设、政府采购制度和采购信息公开、政府采购程序与管理、争议申述与解决制度建设及机构设置、对外开放的范围。