Evaluation: Clinical results and research methodology

The favorable results of two major research reports-Progress on Family Problems by Beck and Jones and a series of studies ofDepressed Patients by Weissmanet al.—are reviewed for the purpose of comparing the methodologies of these studies with that of other well-known research reporting casework treatment to be noneffective. A number of the latter studies are critically examined for their use of social norms rather than client-oriented indicators of improvement, inadequate measuring devices, failure to select appropriate areas of measurement, inappropriate generalization from narrow study populations, overconcentration on delinquents, predelinquents, and multiproblem families, inadequate attention to motivation, inappropriate hypotheses, and serious errors in statistical procedures and in the selection of control groups.     

Ranking inequality: Applications of multivariate subset selection

Inequality measures are often presented in the form of a rank ordering to highlight their relative magnitudes. However, a rank ordering may produce misleading inference, because the inequality measures themselves are statistical estimators with different standard errors, and because a rank ordering necessarily implies multiple comparisons across all measures. Within this setting, if differences between several inequality measures are simultaneously and statistically insignificant, the interpretation of the ranking is changed. This study uses a multivariate subset selection procedure to make simultaneous distinctions across inequality measures at a pre-specified confidence level. Three applications of this procedure are explored using country-level data from the Luxembourg Income Study. The findings show that simultaneous precision plays an important role in relative inequality comparisons and should not be ignored. An erratum to this article can be found at     

VOLATILITY AND IRISH EXPORTS

We analyze the impact of volatility per se on real exports for a small open economy concentrating on Irish trade with the United Kingdom and the United States. An important element is that we take account of the time lag between the trade decision and the actual trade or payments taking place by using a flexible lag approach. Rather than adopting a single measure of risk, we adopt a spectrum of risk measures and detail varied size characteristics and statistical properties. We find that the ambiguous results found to date may be due to not taking account of the timing effect, which varies substantially depending on which volatility measure is used. (JEL C32, C51, F14, F31)     

Validation of the Consumption Screen for Problem Gambling (CSPG)

A 3 item screen for problem gambling was developed based on a conceptual analogue of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test—Consumption (Bush et al. in Arch Intern Med 158:1789–1795, 1998); a brief screen that measures consumption rather than harm. Data were collected from an email panel survey of 588 men and 810 women (n = 1,398) across all states in Australia. Respondents indicated their consumption of gambling products using the 3 items of the new Consumption Screen for Problem Gambling (CSPG). Receiver Operating Characteristics curve analysis was used to analyze the performance of the new items relative to the Problem Gambling Severity Index (Ferris and Wynne in The Canadian problem gambling index: Final report, 2001). Results show a 98% probability that the CSPG score for a randomly chosen positive case of problem gambling will exceed the score for a randomly chosen negative case. In addition, a score of 4+ on the CSPG identified all 14 cases of Problem Gambling correctly, while only 7.3% of non-problem gamblers had scores of 4+ (sensitivity = 100%; specificity = 92.7%). Lastly, only 3.0% of respondents without any gambling problems had CSPG scores of 4+. The current study suggests that the CSPG, a brief consumption-based measure for gambling products, can quickly and accurately identify people who are likely to be experiencing gambling problems.     

Value,Attitude, and Belief Determinants of Willingness to Accept a Facility for the Homeless

Basic values, attitudes toward the homeless, and specific beliefs about a proposed facility were examined, along with the NIMBY (Not In My BackYard) phenomenon, to explore if, and to what degree, these factors affect community acceptance or rejection of a facility for the homeless. Previously designed Protestant ethic (PE) and Humanitarian-Egalitarian (HE) scales were used to measure two basic values (Katz & Hass, 1988). Scales to measure attitudes toward the homeless and beliefs about a planned facility were developed. As predicted, values, attitudes, and beliefs correlated with each other and were related to plan acceptance, so that HE, pro-homeless attitudes, and positive beliefs about the plan were positively related to acceptance, and PE, anti-homeless attitudes, and negative beliefs about the plan were positively related to rejection. Also as predicted, four proximity measures were all related to acceptance of the plan.     

A theory of policy differentiation in single issue electoral politics

Voter preferences are characterized by a parameter s (say, income) distributed on a set S according to a probability measure F. There is a single issue (say, a tax rate) whose level, b, is to be politically decided. There are two parties, each of which is a perfect agent of some constituency of voters, voters with a given value of s. An equilibrium of the electoral game is a pair of policies, b ₁ and b ₂, proposed by the two parties, such that b _i maximizes the expected utility of the voters whom party i represents, given the policy proposed by the opposition. Under reasonable assumptions, the unique electoral equilibrium consists in both parties proposing the favorite policy of the median voter. What theory can explain why, historically, we observe electoral equilibria where the ‘right’ and ‘left’ parties propose different policies? Uncertainty concerning the distribution of voters is introduced. Let {F(t)} _{t ε T} be a class of probability measures on S; all voters and parties share a common prior that the distribution of t is described by a probability measure H on T. If H has finite support, there is in general no electoral equilibrium. However, if H is continuous, then electoral equilibrium generally exists, and in equilibrium the parties propose different policies. Convergence of equilibrium to median voter politics is proved as uncertainty about the distribution of voter traits becomes small.     

Does injustice reduce cognitive performance? An experimental test / ¿Provoca la injusticia una disminución en el rendimiento cognitivo? Una prueba empírica

In this paper we report two experimental studies showing for the first time that injustice causes a reduction in cognitive performance in complex tasks. The two experiments (Study 1, n = 106, Study 2, n = 90) used two different paradigms. In Study 1 participants were exposed to injustice happening to other people. In Study 2 participants themselves were the targets of injustice. In both studies the dependent variable was cognitive performance in a complex task. Specifically, in Study 1, participants solved anagrams, and in Study 2, they solved several Raven matrices. The dependent measures were the number of anagrams and Raven matrices solved correctly. We found that cognitive performance was worse in the unjust condition compared to the just condition (i.e., fewer items solved correctly). These results imply that unfairness in everyday life may have a deleterious effect on individuals’ capacity to think in a complex way. Possible mediators for this effect are proposed.     

WHAT WAS THE MARKET VALUE OF DAIMLER DURING THE GERMAN HYPERINFLATION?

The claim of Bresciani‐Turroni that Daimler's equity capital reached the equivalent of only 327 of their cars during the German hyperinflation has spread widely through the hyperinflation literature. There are two critical errors in Bresciani‐Turroni's calculation, and the minimum market value of Daimler in November 1922 was far lower, at around 94 cars. (JEL E31, G12)     

Measurement error in network data: A re-classification

Research on measurement error in network data has typically focused on missing data. We embed missing data, which we term false negative nodes and edges, in a broader classification of error scenarios. This includes false positive nodes and edges and falsely aggregated and disaggregated nodes. We simulate these six measurement errors using an online social network and a publication citation network, reporting their effects on four node-level measures – degree centrality, clustering coefficient, network constraint, and eigenvector centrality. Our results suggest that in networks with more positively-skewed degree distributions and higher average clustering, these measures tend to be less resistant to most forms of measurement error. In addition, we argue that the sensitivity of a given measure to an error scenario depends on the idiosyncracies of the measure's calculation, thus revising the general claim from past research that the more ‘global’ a measure, the less resistant it is to measurement error. Finally, we anchor our discussion to commonly-used networks in past research that suffer from these different forms of measurement error and make recommendations for correction strategies.     

From neustadt to Alaska, 1939: A failed attempt of community resettlement

Between 1939 and 1941, members of the Jewish community in the German village of Neustadt (Hesse) attempted to immigrate to Alaska under a resettlement plan proposed by the US Department of the Interior. The plan failed and no one from Neustadt reached Alaska. The situation of Neustadt Jews during the 1930s is examined, focusing particularly on the effects of anti‐Jewish measures. The two‐year attempt to resettle in Alaska is followed through correspondence between the spokesman of the community and officials in Washington. The article concludes with an account of the fate of the Neustadt Jews.     

The sensitivity of weight selection for scoring rules to profile proximity to single-peaked preferences

Niemi (Am Polit Sci Rev 63:488–497, 1969) proposed a simple measure of the cohesiveness of a group of n voters’ preferences that reflects the proximity of their preferences to single-peakedness. For three-candidate elections, this measure, k, reduces to the minimum number of voters who rank one of the candidates as being least preferred. The current study develops closed form representations for the conditional probability, PASW(n,IAC|k), that all weighted scoring rules will elect the Condorcet winner in an election, given a specified value of k. Results show a very strong relationship between PASW(n,IAC|k) and k, such that the determination of the voting rule to be used in an election becomes significantly less critical relative to the likelihood of electing the Condorcet winner as voters in a society have more structured preferences. As voters’ preferences become more unstructured as measured by their distance from single-peakedness, it becomes much more likely that different voting rules will select different winners.A preliminary version of this paper was presented at the European Public Choice Society Conference in Berlin, Germany, April 15–18, 2004.     

A method for evaluating the behavior of power indices in weighted plurality games

In this paper, a systematic method to facilitate the comparison of a priori measures of power in an n-player r-candidate (n, r) weighted plurality game is proposed. This method, which exploits the notion of a structure of embedded winning coalitions (SEWC), enables the listing of all power profiles relevant to an (n, r) game under a given index and permits the computation of the probability of occurrence of each of these profiles. The vulnerability of an index to different paradoxes of power can also be systematically studied. For the purpose of illustration, we apply this method to the analysis of four well-known 2-candidate power indices namely the Shapley-Shubik index, the Banzhaf index, the Johnston index and the Deegan-Packel index. In each case, the set of power profiles and the likelihood of occurrence of each of these profiles are enumerated. The superadditivity property of these indices is also studied. Received: 20 October 1999/Accepted: 25 April 2001     

A Review and Proposal for a New Measure of Poll Accuracy

This article proposes a new measure of the predictive accuracy(A) of election polls that permits examination of both accuracyand bias, and it applies the new measure to summarize the resultsof a number of preelection polls. We first briefly review pastmeasures of accuracy, then introduce the new measure. Afterthe new measure is described, the general strategy is to applyit to three presidential elections (1948, 1996, and 2000) andto compare the results derived from it to the results obtainedwith the Mosteller measures. Then, the new measure is appliedto the results of 548 state polls from gubernatorial and senatorialraces in the 2002 elections to illustrate its application toa large body of preelection polls conducted in "off-year" raceswith different outcomes. We believe that this new measure willbe useful as a summary measure of accuracy in election forecasts.It is easily computed and summarized, and it can be used asa dependent variable in multivariate statistical analyses ofthe nature and extent of biases that affect election forecastsand to identify their potential sources. It is comparable acrosselections with different outcomes and among polls that varyin their treatment or numbers of undecided voters.     

CRIME AND PUNISHMENT IN MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL: THE CASE OF THE DESIGNATED HITTER AND HIT BATTERS

Past studies have found a positive correlation between the use of the designated hitter in baseball and hit batters, but the reason for this is debatable. Using a new micro‐level data set of individual plate appearances, we control for detailed cost‐benefit attributes that affect the decision calculus of the pitcher to isolate the deterrent impact of requiring the pitcher to bat. We find that pitchers hit batters strategically, and the deterrent effect of requiring pitchers to bat explains 60%–80% of the difference in hit batsmen between leagues. We also identify evidence of direct retaliation against plunking pitchers. (JEL D81, KC42, L83)     

Typical and Atypical Development of Visual Attention in 3‐ to 9‐Month‐Old Infants

The interactions between attention and stimulus encoding in infancy were examined using heart rate (HR) and visual habituation measures. At 3, 6, and 9 months of age, infants (N = 119) were habituated to an adult face; longest look (LL) duration was measured as an indicator of encoding speed. Three groups were formed based on LL change from 3 to 9 months: Large Decrease, Small Decrease, and Increase. Using concurrent electrocardiograph recordings, attention was measured through the percentage of looking time in orienting, sustained attention, and attention termination. We partially replicated previous findings regarding developmental patterns of attention in these three groups, notably that these patterns were different for the Increase group. Looks away from the stimulus were also assessed in each attentional phase and, as predicted, HR acceleration phases showed less visual engagement than HR deceleration phases. We also found anomalous behavior for the LL Increase group. In general, this small but distinct group showed similarities at 3 months to the presumably more mature behavior of typical 9 month olds, but by 9 months, they behaved more like typical 3 month olds regarding some, but not all, cognitive measures. These results are discussed in the context of the development of endogenous attention.     

PERCEIVED GAME UNCERTAINTY,SUSPENSE AND THE DEMAND FOR SPORT

This study tries bridging between different behavioral economic explanations for the lack of support of the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis in spectator sports. We test a measure of perceived game uncertainty that is comparable to objective measures frequently tested in the literature. Econometric results suggest that fans do not perceive closeness of a game differently than how economists have tended to measure it. However, fans' perceptions of suspensefulness are distinct from their perceptions of game uncertainty. Moreover, the finding that fans' preferences for game uncertainty are dominated by loss aversion also emerges—independently of fanship status—in our stated‐preference setting. (JEL L83, D12, Z2)     

Inequality of opportunity in the land of opportunities, 1968–2001

We measure inequality of opportunity for earnings acquisition in the U.S. between 1968 and 2001. Following recent theories of social justice, earnings determinants are divided into two parts: Circumstances, which are characteristics outside individual control and effort representing factors impacting earnings but under individuals’ responsibility. Equality of opportunity requires that inequality of circumstances must be corrected while differences of effort must remain unaltered. Circumstances are represented by parental education and occupation, ethnic origin, place of birth and age. Effort is modeled with schooling choices and labour supply decisions. Using the PSID from 1968 to 2001, we provide two alternative assessments of inequality of opportunity using counterfactual distributions. The statistical framework is semi-parametric and builds on duration models. Finally, we conclude that inequality of opportunity represents between 20 and 43% of earnings inequality, but decreases all over the period reaching around 18% in 2001.     

The relationship between stimulus equivalence and verbal behavior

Despite the apparent similarity between stimulus equivalence and verbal behavior, these phenomena have been described in different terms. With different terminologies for each phenomenon, the precise nature of their relationship is difficult to determine. To explore this relationship, this paper first defines stimulus equivalence using a synthesis of the mathematical definition of the equivalence relation and Sidman and Tailby’s (1982) definition. Selected examples of stimulus equivalence are then described as verbal behavior using Skinner’s (1957) terminology. The paper then cites instances of verbal behavior that cannot be described as stimulus equivalence and considers whether there are instances of stimulus equivalence that cannot be described as verbal behavior.

     

The likelihood of inefficiency,a prisoner's dilemma and suboptimality in games of binary voluntary provision of public goods

This paper focuses on one possible measure for the severity of the problems of inefficiency, suboptimality and the Prisoner's Dilemma in voluntary public-good provision. The proposed measure is the probability of the emergence of the respective problem in an impartial environment where all feasible combinations of the parameters of the voluntary public good provision game are equally likely. These probabilities are derived using the game of voluntary binary contributions to the provision of public goods recently analyzed by Gradstein and Nitzan (1990). The severity of the three problems (Prisoner's Dilemma, suboptimality and inefficiency) is computed, respectively for games with up to N=12, N=6 and N=4 players. The decreasing order of N reflects the increasing complexity of the problems and, in turn, computation of their likelihood. It turns out that the likelihoods of all three problems are increasing with the number of players, N. More importantly, social optimality is more likely than suboptimality when N2, efficiency is more likely than inefficiency when N3 and no Prisoner's Dilemma is more likely than a Prisoner's Dilemma when N5.     

The NTEE classification system: tests of reliability/validity in the field of higher education

An analysis of the field of higher education reveals a surprisingly large number of classification errors within the (US) National Taxonomy of Exempt Entities database. Of the nearly 4,000 non-profit entities coded within the universe of institutions of higher education, we estimate that approximately 60 per cent were incorrectly included (Type II errors). Institutions incorrectly excluded from the higher education universe (Type I errors) represent roughly 10 per cent of the institutions coded correctly. These errors result primarily from assigning codes on the basis of the names of organisations (for example, College Park Towers is classified as a college, when it is in fact a housing complex for senior citizens) and from trying too hard to assign codes in ambiguous situations. The consequences can be significant for the users of these data, and we recommend raising bright warning flags while simultaneously enlisting the help of the entire non-profit sector in improving the classification coding process.The authors are with The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation. In addition to our colleagues on the staff of the Foundation, we wish to thank Helmut Anheier, Ted Bozovich, Harvey Dale, Virginia Hodgkinson, Stephen Noga and Christopher Toppe for helpful suggestions.