Lifetime probability of additional births by age and parity for American women, 1935–1968: A new measurement of period fertility

A new fertility measurement, probability that a woman of specified parity and age will bear a given number of births in her remaining lifetime, is proposed in this article. The measurement is a summary index of a set of age-parity-specific birth probabilities and in a particular case it is conceptually analogous to the total fertility by birth order but free from the influence of the parity distribution. Fertility of American women for the period 1935-1968 was studied by use of such lifetime probabilities. It appears that the trend of fertility of high birth orders has been parallel with that of low orders. Initiation of the recent decline in fertility depends on parity and age of woman.     

Knowledge and attitudes about HIV/AIDS among community-living older women: reexamining issues of age and gender

Although older women face unique risks related to HIV/ AIDS, little empirical data is available regarding HIV/AIDS among women over the age of 65. In the present study, 160 community-living older women and men completed questionnaires regarding knowledge and attitudes about HIV/AIDS. Findings showed that although older women were less likely to talk to their physician about HIV than men, they maintained greater knowledge and generally dispelled myths about viral transmission. However, most older women believed that HIV/AIDS had limited personal relevance, possessed virtually no knowledge of age and gender specific risk factors, and professed HIV-associated stigma. These findings highlight the need for gender and age specific prevention programs.     

Knowledge and Attitudes About HIV/AIDS Among Community-Living Older Women: Reexamining Issues of Age and Gender

ABSTRACT

Although older women face unique risks related to HIV/AIDS, little empirical data is available regarding HIV/AIDS among women over the age of 65. In the present study, 160 community-living older women and men completed questionnaires regarding knowledge and attitudes about HIV/AIDS. Findings showed that although older women were less likely to talk to their physician about HIV than men, they maintained greater knowledge and generally dispelled myths about viral transmission. However, most older women believed that HIV/AIDS had limited personal relevance, possessed virtually no knowledge of age and gender specific risk factors, and professed HIV-associated stigma. These findings highlight the need for gender and age specific prevention programs.     

Pregnancy wantedness and the early initiation of prenatal care

The study examines the impact of the wantedness of a pregnancy on the demand for early prenatal care. Using a cohort of pregnant women in New York City, we estimate a prenatal care demand function in which we control for the probability of giving birth, given a woman is pregnant. We interpret this control as a measure of wantedness. The results indicate that if the black and Hispanic women who aborted had instead given birth, they would have delayed the initiation of prenatal care, on average, more than three-quarters of a month longer than the mean number of months of delay that were actually observed for the women who gave birth. By allowing women to terminate an unwanted pregnancy, induced abortion increases the average use of prenatal care among black and Hispanic women relative to what would have been observed if the women who aborted had instead given birth.     

The United Nations on the Demographic Impact of the AIDS Epidemic

A report prepared by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and released in Geneva on 27 June 2000 (just prior to the XIIIth International AIDS Conference held in Durban, South Africa) updates estimates of the demographic impact of the epidemic. It characterizes AIDS in the new millennium as presenting “a grim picture with glimmers of hope”—the latter based on the expectation that national responses aimed at preventing and fighting the disease are in some places becoming more effective. According to the report, which emphasizes the considerable statistical weaknesses of its global estimates, the number of people living with HIV/AIDS in 1999 was 34.3 million (of which 33.0 million were adults and 1.3 million were children under age 15; slightly less than half of the adults affected, 15.7 million, were women). Deaths attributed to AIDS in 1999 amounted to 2.8 million, bringing the total since the beginning of the epidemic to 18.8 million. These figures represent moderate upward revisions of earlier UN estimates shown in the Documents section of PDR 25, no. 4. The revised estimate of the number of persons newly infected with HIV in 1999 is, in contrast, slightly lower: 5.4 million, of which 4.7 million were adults and 2.3 million were women. An excerpt from the 135‐page Report on the Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic, focusing on countries in the worst‐affected area, sub‐Saharan Africa, is reproduced below. (Figures shown have been renumbered.)     

A probability model applicable to the study of inter-live birth intervals and random segments of the same

Abstract This paper deals with an analytical study of two types of birth intervals, viz. 'closed intervals' and 'open intervals' through the application of simple probability theory. The 'closed interval' stands for the time interval between two successive live births of a woman, and the 'open interval' denotes the interval between the date of last live birth and the date of survey for a married woman in the reproductive age group surveyed at a point of time. The study considers the 'closed interval' as the sum of independent random variables, each representing a particular component like post-partum amenorrhea, waiting time in the susceptible state, etc. Approximations to the patterns of distributions of these component random variables are made from the available data collected in fertility surveys at Gandhigram. The 'open interval' for any parity is studied separately for two different (mutually exclusive) categories of women, viz. those who have at least one more live birth at some time or other during their reproductive period and those who cease childbearing. In the first case the 'open interval' is considered as a random segment or partition of the corresponding 'closed interval'; in the second as a random segment of the interval between the date of birth of the last child and date at which the woman attains 45 years of age. The mean and variance of the 'open interval' is obtained separately in each case, and the moments of the 'open interval' distribution for women chosen at random from the population are obtained as an appropriate mixture of the two types.     

HIV and fertility in Africa: first evidence from population-based surveys

The historical pattern of the demographic transition suggests that fertility declines follow mortality declines, followed by a rise in human capital accumulation and economic growth. The HIV/AIDS epidemic threatens to reverse this path. We utilize recent rounds of the demographic and health surveys that link an individual woman’s fertility outcomes to her HIV status based on testing. The data allow us to distinguish the effect of own positive HIV status on fertility (which may be due to lower fecundity and other physiological reasons) from the behavioral response to higher mortality risk, as measured by the local community HIV prevalence. We show that although HIV-infected women have significantly lower fertility, local community HIV prevalence has no significant effect on noninfected women’s fertility.     

HIV testing,perceptions of AIDS risk,and condom use motivation among US women

As STD infections including HIV increase in the United States, it has become increasingly important to policy makers to ascertain the extent to which knowledge and perceptions of AIDS risk affect an individual's probability of altering their sexual or contraceptive behavior to avoid infection. This paper examines the extent to which women's perceptions of their own and their partners' risk of HIV infection affects the probability of using a condom for protection against sexually transmitted diseases. This paper also examines the extent to which HIV testing may affect motivation for condom use. Crosstabulations reveal that prophylactic condom use is more prevalent among women who have been tested for HIV and increase as perceptions of their chance (and their partner's chance) of being positive increases. The multivariate results from this study indicate that having an HIV test significantly predicts the likelihood of using a condom for STD prevention for US women. Furthermore, women who perceive themselves to be at least somewhat likely to be HIV positive have a higher probability of using a condom to prevent sexually transmitted disease, and women who perceive their partners to be HIV positive are twice as likely as other women to use a condom for STD prevention. However, women who consider themselves likely to be HIV positive are no more likely to use a condom than those who consider themselves not at risk.     

Family formation and the life cycle

Mathematical expressions are developed for certain life cycles when only the age-specific birth and death rates are known. The probability at birth that a woman will have a specified number of children and the expected length of time spent before the first birth, between the first and the last child, and between the last child and the time of the woman's death are shown to be calculable. Expressions for the probability of at least one child outliving the mother and for the expected number of children outliving the mother are also developed and are evaluated for three selected countries with different birth and death rates to show how these life cycles depend on birth and death rates.     

Introducing the female condom to drug users in Brazil

Brazil is currently the number two country in the world for reported cases of AIDS, and the rate of heterosexually acquired cases is on the rise. Moreover, because of the changing focus of the epidemic, the ratio of male to female cases dropped from 28 : 1 in 1984 to 2.7 : 1 in 1997. While women's risk of infection continues to grow, there is evidence to suggest that traditional approaches to HIV risk reduction have not effectively addressed women's special needs. Within such a setting this study sought to introduce drug-involved women to the female condom – a female-controlled method of protection from HIV. As part of a larger HIV/AIDS intervention study targeting low-income, cocaine users, the primary aim of this initiative was to assess the level of acceptability of this new device among women at high-risk for HIV infection in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. In conjunction with individual pre-test HIV prevention counseling, clients participated in a detailed education/demonstration session with the female condom. Women were asked to try the female condom with their partners and to report their experiences at two points of contact. Outcome data indicate that a sizable proportion (71.1%) of the sexually active women used the female condom during vaginal sex on one or more occasions. In addition, many women continued to use the female condom as a method of risk reduction over the three-month follow-up period. These data suggest that the female condom can have an important role in HIV prevention efforts in Brazil.     

Marriage behavior response to prime-age adult mortality: evidence from malawi

This article examines the effect of AIDS-related mortality of the prime-age adult population on marriage behavior among women in Malawi. A rise in prime-age adult mortality increases risks associated with the search for a marriage partner in the marriage market. A possible behavioral change in the marriage market in response to an increase in prime-age adult mortality is to marry earlier to avoid exposure to HIV/AIDS risks. We test this hypothesis by using micro data from Malawi, where prime-age adult mortality has drastically increased. In the analysis, we estimate the probability of prime-age adult mortality that sample women have observed during their adolescent period by utilizing retrospective information on deaths of their siblings. Empirical analysis shows that excess prime-age adult mortality in the local marriage market lowers the marriage age for females and shortens the interval between the first sex and first marriage.     

Theory-Based Policy Development for HIV Prevention in Racial/Ethnic Minority Midlife and Older Women

ABSTRACT

In 2008, there were more than a million persons with HIV/AIDS in the United States. The CDC (2007) estimates that 15% of persons with HIV/AIDS are over age 50. At greater risk are women of color. Most intervention efforts have focused on intrapersonal aspects of an individual and his or her sexual-risk behaviors, with little or no attention directed toward interpersonal and socioenvironmental considerations of risk and prevention. This paper considers the limitations of current national policies relating to HIV prevention in minority populations, especially among midlife and older women of color. In particular, this paper examines risk and prevention policies in light of ecological perspectives, social capital, and dialogical theories.     

A useful method of calculating age-specific fertility rates]

The practical use of mathematical formulas on the Chinese birth rate as broken down into age groups is analyzed. Through the use of mathematical formulas which are changed to accommodate various parameters, the report comes to 3 conclusions. 1st, the death rate among childbearing women from year T-1 to year T fits the normal distribution. 2nd, the birth rate by age for year T-1 for the above childbearing women seems to be equal to the birth rate by age in year T for all childbearing women. 3rd, every woman who died during childbirth gave birth to 1 live child in the year T-1. The main finding of the report, however, is that formula (1), when used to calculate the birth population for 1981, is quite satisfactory. This finding is supported by the fact that based on the data for 1982 from the general population survey, the birth population in 1981 as calculated by formula (1) is 20,713,434 persons. This figure is higher by 23,730 persons than the figure of 20,689,704 persons which was obtained from the general survey. The relative calculation error is 1.15%. Considering that this error absorbs the impact of 1.83% lost birth registration reports and an error in the number of women by age for 1981, the formula is sufficient.     

No One Is Immune: A Community Education Partnership Addressing HIV/AIDS and Older Adults

There has been a dramatic increase in the number of new HIV diagnoses among people aged 50 to 64 in the United States, and according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), in just 7 years (by 2015) 50% of those living with AIDS will be aged 50 or older. To address this public health concern, viable HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment options for individuals over the age of 50 are necessary. This article discusses the No One Is Immune initiative that planned, implemented, and coordinated evidence- based HIV/AIDS prevention and education programs specifically tailored for middle-aged and older adults. Guided by the health belief model, an educational conference entitled "Sexuality, Medication, and HIV/AIDS in Middle and Later Adulthood" was conducted along with research activities that assessed HIV/AIDS knowledge gained using both qualitative and quantitative measures. This project can be replicated by other providers within the aging network.     

HIV/AIDS and Urbanization

It is well known that levels of HIV prevalence tend to be appreciably higher inurban areas. This article considers the reasons for this and shows that within world regions that are relatively homogeneous with respect to their experience of HIV/AIDS, variation in the level of urbanization corresponds to about one‐third of variation in estimated HIV prevalence. Furthermore, for populations in the world's worst‐affected area—eastern and southern Africa—there are signs that, partly by differentially raising urban death rates and depressing urban birth rates, HIV/AIDS is slowing the pace of urbanization. Finally, in countries with very high levels of HIV infection and relatively low birth rates, such as in South Africa, the urban sector will soon constitute a “demographic sink”—with death rates exceeding birth rates.     

中国老年艾滋病的流行状况分析

艾滋病在中国的迅速流行已是不争的事实,但是人们普遍认为“艾滋病是年轻人的病”。调查资料显示,50岁及以上的老年艾滋病病毒感染者报告人数已达到全国感染者的1/10,并呈快速增长趋势。老年感染人群的主要感染渠道以既往有偿献血感染为主。老年艾滋病病毒(HIV)感染者和艾滋病(AIDS)病人增多无论对家庭还是对社会均产生严重的后果,在艾滋病预防和控制战役中,老年是一个不可忽略的人群,应引起高度重视。     

"But of course he is led by God": pastoral influence on an HIV/AIDS ministry

HIV/AIDS is spreading more rapidly in black communities than any other in the United States, with black women being 23 times more likely to become infected than any other subgroup in the country. Some African-American churches are becoming involved by creating HIV/AIDS ministries that cater to various needs of local populations. Through an examination of deictic markers, this article analyzes ideologies surrounding HIV/AIDS and the pastor's influence on the HIV/AIDS ministry at College Street Baptist Church.     

The effects of children on divorce and re-marriage: a multivariate analysis of life table probabilities

Summary Using proportional hazards models and multiple decrement life tables to analyse data from the 1973 National Survey of Family Growth, this study tests the hypotheses that, net of the effects of such factors as age at separation or divorce, the probabilities of divorce after separation and of re-marriage after divorce would be lower for women with larger numbers of children or younger children, and that these transitions would take longer than for women with fewer or older children or women who were childless; and that there would be an interaction between number of children and age of youngest child. Results included: (1) the probability that mothers of two or more children would divorce after separation was significantly lower than for childless women, or those with only one child; (2) among whites, mothers of three or more children were at a significant disadvantage regarding their chances of re-marriage, whereas the probability that a black mother of three or more children would re-marry was no smaller than that of a woman with fewer or no children; (3) among whites, the presence of a youngest child aged between two and five years at separation decreased the probability of divorce after separation; (4) there was no interaction effect between number and age of children; and (5) in each category of family size and age of youngest child, the probability that a black woman would divorce after separation or re-marry after divorce was lower than for white women. The results have important implications for the study of divorce and re-marriage, and for understanding of problems of single-parent families.     

Are young people in the Philippines taking chances with HIV / AIDS?

The numbers of AIDS cases and HIV infections detected in the Philippines have risen slowly but steadily since the first AIDS case in the country was diagnosed in 1984. By the end of 1995, 234 AIDS cases and 470 HIV infections had been reported to the country's Department of Health. However, given the limited extent to which people have been tested for HIV infection, there are most likely many more cases than reported. The HIV/AIDS epidemic is spreading within the Filipino population. The country's substantial commercial sex trade, reports suggesting that many unmarried young men have sexual intercourse with girlfriends and acquaintances, and IV drug use among a small number of young people are factors which contribute to the potential for a serious HIV/AIDS epidemic in the Philippines. Findings from the 1994 national Young Adult Fertility and Sexuality Study, a household survey covering 10,879 men and women aged 15-24 years in 959 different communities, are presented. Almost all respondents had heard of AIDS, but there was some degree of ignorance and misinformation on the modes of HIV transmission. 13% of all single men reported having had only one sex partner, 10% reported two or more partners, and 3% reported five or more. 98% of sexually active men had heard of condoms, 58% knew that condom use can protect against HIV infection, 23% reported ever having used one, and 4% reported using a condom during the most recent act of sexual intercourse.     

An inquiry into expected lifetime fertility]

Expected lifetime fertility rate, or completed fertility rate, refers specifically to the cumulative fertility rate of a cohort of women after the age of reproducibility; however, in China's case, "reproduccibility" virtually ends after a woman gives birth to a 2nd child (assuming both children live). Hypothetical situations specific to China's system of family planning are presented and analyzed; statistical formulas and lifetime fertility rates (including allowances for violations of the e child policy), are provided.