Construal Processes in Preference Assessment

Interpreting people's preferences requires understanding how they have construed their tasks, interpreting the proposed alternatives in the context where the evaluation is being made. With stylized experimental or survey choices, researchers' challenge is typically identifying the features that people add in order to make their task real enough to answer (i.e., how they read between the lines). With rich “real world” choices, researchers' challenge is typically identifying the features that people neglect, as they reduce their task to manageable complexity (i.e., which lines they choose to read). In either case, if people misunderstand or mistrust the stated transaction, they may evaluate a different offer than the one that was proposed. Such misconstruals are a nuisance for investigators, insofar as dealing with them delays the measurements that motivated the research. However, they can also provide an opportunity, by focusing attention on how people give meaning to choice situations. This article describes procedures for studying construal processes, strategies for getting people to answer the questions that interest researchers, and options for interpreting responses when people construe questions differently than was intended.     

When the Name Says it All: Preschoolers' Recognition and Use of the Gendered Nature of Common Proper Names

By the time they enter preschool children have acquired extensive knowledge of gender stereotypes. There has been little work on their use of this knowledge to make inferences about behavior; there is virtually no information as to how the explicitness of gender-category information influences the reliability of inferences. In two experiments we tested 3-112-year-old children's recognition and use of less-than-explicit, yet highly reliable, cues to gender-category membership: common proper names. In Experiment 1 children reliably associated feminine-stereotyped names with pictures of girls and masculine-stereotyped names with pictures of boys; they did not reliably associate gender-neutral names with pictures of girls and boys. In Experiment 2 children used their knowledge of same-gender-category names to make predictions about the preferences of otherwise sex-unspecified targets; they did not make reliable predictions when the targets were labeled with opposite-gender-category names. In contrast, when the targets were labeled with gendered common nouns (“girl” and “boy”) performance was reliable and was not affected by match or mismatch between the sex of the child and the gender category of the target. The findings indicate differential patterns of development and application of gender-category consistent versus gender-category inconsistent knowledge.     

Theory‐of‐mind during childhood: Investigating syntactic and executive contributions

Both syntax and Executive Functions (EF) are involved in Theory‐of‐Mind (ToM) but their contributory roles have mainly been studied separately. Moreover, researchers have mostly administered False Belief (FB) tasks while they may not be representative of all ToM abilities. Studies of adults give valuable information regarding whether syntax and EF are useful for ToM reasoning (i.e., Reasoning account), however, only the study of children brings direct evidence in favor of ToM emergence (i.e., Emergence account). Also, because the ToM tasks used often entail verbal and executive demands, the links observed could mostly result from such confounds (i.e., Expression account). We evaluated ToM, syntactic and EF abilities in 126 children (3‐11 y.o.) using a set of ToM tasks with minimal verbal and executive demands. Our goals were to assess (1) the hierarchical contribution of syntax and EF to ToM, (2) whether results previously obtained for FB tasks are representative of ToM in general, (3) whether the ToM‐syntax and ToM‐EF links are constant (i.e., Reasoning account) or decrease during development (i.e., Emergence accounts). Results of stepwise regression analyses showed a predominant role of syntax over EF to predict ToM abilities. The comparison of results for ToM and FB tasks showed that FB is not always representative of ToM. Finally, there was no moderating effect of age on the syntax‐ToM or EF‐ToM relations, thus suggestive of the Reasoning account rather than the Emergence account.     

Contingencies of Self‐worth in Early Adolescence: The Antecedent Role of Perceived Parenting

Contingent self‐esteem (i.e., the degree to which one's self‐esteem is dependent on meeting particular conditions) has been shown to predict a wide range of psychosocial and academic problems. This study extends previous research on contingent self‐esteem by examining the predictive role of perceived parenting dimensions in a sample of early adolescents (N = 240; age range 11–15 years). Additionally, the effect of perceived parenting on contingent self‐esteem is compared with its effect on global self‐esteem. Our main findings showed that both responsiveness and psychological control were unique predictors of global self‐esteem whereas only psychological control uniquely predicted contingent self‐esteem. Although the effect of responsiveness on global self‐esteem was increased when combined with high levels of behavioral control, this effect did not depend on the level of psychological control. The effect of psychological control on contingent self‐esteem, however, generally increased when combined with high levels of responsiveness.     

The social bases of language acquisition

A language is composed of conventional symbols shaped by their social-communicative functions. Children acquire these symbols, both lexical and syntactic, in the context of culturally constituted event structures that make salient these functions. In the acquisition process children rely on cultural learning skills (i.e., imitative learning). These skills emanate from their ability to participate intersubjectively with adults in cultural activities (i.e., joint attention), which underlies their ability to understand the ways adults are using particular pieces of language. The development of communicative competence as a whole, including not only lexical and syntactic skills but also various pragmatic skills, depends largely on feedback about communicative efficacy that children receive from different interactants. This feedback is used by children to make further inferences about the conventional functional significance of particular linguistic expressions. This social-pragmatic view of language acquisition obviates the need for a priori, specifically linguistic, format constraints on the language acquisition process.     

Separating curvature and elevation: A parametric probability weighting function

This paper presents a preference foundation for a two-parameter family of probability weighting functions. We provide a theoretical link between the well-established notions of probabilistic risk attitudes (i.e., optimism and pessimism) used in economics and the important independent measures for individual behavior used in the psychology literature (i.e., curvature and elevation). One of the parameters in our model measures curvature and represents the diminishing effect of optimism and pessimism when moving away from extreme probabilities 0 and 1. The other parameter measures elevation and represents the relative strength of optimism vs. pessimism. Our empirical analysis indicates that the new weighting function fits elicited probability weights well, and that it can explain differences in the treatment of probabilities for gains compared to that for probabilities of losses.     

Identity Styles and Interpersonal Behavior in Emerging Adulthood: The Intervening Role of Empathy

This study examined the intervening role of empathy in the relations between identity styles (i.e., information‐oriented, normative, and diffuse‐avoidant styles), and inter‐personal behaviors (i.e., prosocial behavior, self‐ and other‐oriented helping, and physical and relational aggression). In a sample of 341 emerging adults, it was found that an information‐oriented style relates to a more adaptive pattern of interpersonal behaviors whereas a normative or a diffuse‐avoidant identity style relate to a more maladaptive pattern of interpersonal behaviors. Empathy played an intervening role between the information‐oriented style and interpersonal behavior, and between the diffuse‐avoidant style and interpersonal behavior. However, empathy did not intervene between the normative style and interpersonal behavior. Implications for future research are discussed.     

Newcomb's paradox

This note proposes a new solution to the problem based on the information states available to the two opponents. The demon or predictor has two possible states on which to choose his course of action. These states are his predictions of the agents choice. The agent has only one state on which to make his choice. It is shown that unless the reward is small, the agent should make his choice probabilistically, using the same odds as the demon's chances of correct prediction.     

Effects of sharing the parental leave on pensioners’ poverty and gender inequality in old age: A simulation in IFSIM

Female old age poverty is affected by family policy reforms which are meant to promote gender equality when young. Using our in house agent based simulation model IFSIM we show that sharing equally the parental leave can increase or reduce poverty among elderly women depending on the macro and behavioural (i.e. labour supply) responses that the reform off-sets. In general, the reform can be good for highly educated women, who will have an incentive to work more full time thanks to their higher earnings, which can compensate any loss in household income due to the man's staying home. For lower educated however, work might not pay as much and a reduction in labour supply might actually ensue (e.g. to reduce childcare costs). This will reduce also their pension rights at retirement. Furthermore, keeping men at home might slow down economic growth, and consequently growth of income pension accounts will be lower. This effect, combined with lower pension contributions (due to reduced labour supply), might result in higher poverty rates for women with lower education, compared to a scenario where the woman takes the whole leave. Other policies, such as more subsidised child care, might be an alternative worth considering to reduce female poverty in old age more evenly across educational levels.     

Divide-the-Dollar Game Revisited

In the Divide-the-Dollar (DD) game, two players simultaneously make demands to divide a dollar. Each player receives his demand if the sum of the demands does not exceed one, a payoff of zero otherwise. Note that, in the latter case, both parties are punished severely. A major setback of DD is that each division of the dollar is a Nash equilibrium outcome. Observe that, when the sum of the two demands x and y exceeds one, it is as if Player 1's demand x (or his offer (1−x) to Player 2) suggests that Player 2 agrees to λ_x < 1 times his demand y so that Player 1's demand and Player 2's modified demand add up to exactly one; similarly, Player 2's demand y (or his offer (1−y) to Player 1) suggests that Player 1 agrees to λ_yx so that λ_yx+y = 1. Considering this fact, we change DD's payoff assignment rule when the sum of the demands exceeds one; here in this case, each player's payoff becomes his demand times his λ; i.e., each player has to make the sacrifice that he asks his opponent to make. We show that this modified version of DD has an iterated strict dominant strategy equilibrium in which each player makes the egalitarian demand 1/2. We also provide a natural N-person generalization of this procedure. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Indecisiveness aversion and preference for commitment

We present an axiomatic model of preferences over menus that is motivated by three assumptions. First, the decision maker is uncertain ex ante (i.e., at the time of choosing a menu) about her ex post (i.e., at the time of choosing an option within her chosen menu) preferences over options, and she anticipates that this subjective uncertainty will not resolve before the ex post stage. Second, she is averse to ex post indecisiveness (i.e., to having to choose between options that she cannot rank with certainty). Third, when evaluating a menu she discards options that are dominated (i.e., inferior to another option whatever her ex post preferences may be) and restricts attention to the undominated ones. Under these assumptions, the decision maker has a preference for commitment in the sense of preferring menus with fewer undominated alternatives. We derive a representation in which the decision maker’s uncertainty about her ex post preferences is captured by means of a subjective state space, which in turn determines which options are undominated in a given menu, and in which the decision maker fears, whenever indecisive, to choose an option that will turn out to be the worst (undominated) one according to the realization of her ex post preferences.     

The impact of governmental assistance on insurance demand under ambiguity: a theoretical model and an experimental test

This article deals with the impact of governmental assistance on insurance demand under ambiguity, i.e., in situations where probabilities are uncertain. First, using a model of insurance demand under ambiguity, we derive theoretical predictions about the impact of several governmental assistance programmes on optimal insurance demand. For example, governmental assistance through a fixed public support scheme implies that partial insurance is always optimal under fair insurance with ambiguity. Second, we present the results of an experiment designed to test these predictions. We find support for several of our theoretical predictions. For example, the presence of governmental assistance through a fixed public support scheme decreases individuals’ willingness to pay to be fully insured. Finally, we compare these results with those obtained for a risk situation. We find that, regardless of the form of governmental assistance, participants in the ambiguity context are consistently willing to pay more to be fully insured than participants in the risk situation.     

Hindu-Muslim differential fertility: how much religious and how much socio?

Data from the Bangladesh Fertility Survey (BFS) of 1975 were used to test the hypotheses that the higher the socioeconomic status, the lower the fertility and the narrower the difference in fertility between Muslims and Hindus; and the lower the socioeconomic status, the higher the fertility and the greater the difference in fertility between Muslims and Hindus. The core group for analysis in this study of women married only once and reported to fecund includes 3914 Muslims and 824 Hindus. Actual analysis was based on fewer than these 4738 because of nonresponse to 1 or more pertinent interview questions used in this study. Multiple classification analysis (MCA) was used to analyze the data. Prior to adjustment for the effect of other variables, the fertility of Muslims was a little lower than that of Hindus. The average number of children born to Muslims was 3.89; it was 3.95 for Hindus. Fertility tended to decline with improvement in socioeconomic status, i.e., increase in the level of education, i.e., no formal and primary level, and this almost converged at the middle and higher educational levels. At the lower levels of education, i.e., no formal and 1-5 grades, Muslims had .19-.34 children more than Hindus. This difference was reduced to .07 children at the middle level education, i.e., 6-9 grades. At the higher level of education, Muslims had .09 fewer children than Hindus, and this difference was statistically significant. Prior to adjustment for the effect of other variables, the fertility of Muslims was higher than that of Hindus at almost every level of age at marriage. This picture was reversed when adjustment was made for the effect of other variables. At the lower levels of age at marriage, Muslims has .23-.20 more children than Hindus. At the middle age at marriage, Muslims had .08 fewer children than Hindus. This difference was statistically significant. There was virtually no difference between the 2 groups at the higher age at marriage, i.e., 20-21 years. The effect of urbanization on fertility by education differed for Hindus and Muslims. For Hindus, fertility at each level of education was higher in urban than in rural areas. For Muslims, fertility at each level of education, particularly at higher levels, was lower in urban than in rural areas. No significant difference was found in the use of contraception between Muslims and Hindus at higher levels of education, but at lower levels of education contraceptive use among Hindus was significantly higher than for Muslims. The findings suggest that with an improvement in education, fertility will decline with a corresponding increase in the use of contraception and the difference in fertility and use of contraception between Muslims and Hindus will disappear. The findings also support the tenet that development, especially education, is the best formula for reducing fertility in poor countries.     

Different ways of knowing a child and their relations to mother‐reported autonomy support

We considered how different forms of child knowledge (i.e., mothers’ reports of taking their child's perspective, their accurate knowledge in the form of precise predictions of their child's ratings regarding distress/comforting and compliance/discipline situations, and their perceived knowledge) are differentially associated with mother‐reported autonomy support (i.e., providing meaningful rationales, providing choice, and acknowledging feelings; Koestner, Ryan, Bernieri, & Holt, 1984 ). Mothers and their children (141 dyads, M = 11 years old at Time 1) participated in a two‐wave longitudinal study with assessments made two years apart. The only form of knowledge that predicted changes in autonomy support was perspective‐taking. Autonomy support, in turn, indirectly predicted changes in distress/comforting accuracy through child‐reported self‐disclosure and directly predicted changes in perceived knowledge. These findings underline the importance of differentiating among forms of child knowledge in the study of socialization processes.     

Legalized Abortion and the Homicide of Young Children: An Empirical Investigation

Recent research has drawn a link, sometimes a causal link, between the legalization of abortion in the late 1960s and early 1970s and the precipitous decline in crime in the 1990s. Abortion is posited to have reduced the number of potential victims and potential perpetrators, and the potential effect is examined when these individuals would be reaching their high-crime years. We examined a more proximal potential association between legalized abortion and homicide, specifically, the homicide of young children. Assuming that abortions occurred when the family had insufficient resources for the birth, one could hypothesize that children would have been at higher risk of homicide if born into these circumstances. We examined 1960-1998 U.S. mortality data for children under 5 years of age using an interrupted time series design. The legalization of abortion was not associated with a sudden change in child homicide trends. It was, however, associated with a steady decrease in the homicides of toddlers (i.e., 1- to 4-year-olds) in subsequent years. Although in the predicted direction, the decrease in homicides of children under 1 year of age was not statistically significant. Competing explanations that could be examined in the data (e.g., changes in mortality classification) do not account for the findings.     

Preferences for information on probabilities versus prizes: The role of risk-taking attitudes

Many real-world decisions entail choices between information on either probabilities or payoffs (i.e., prizes). Simplified versions of such decisions are examined to gain insight into preferences for different types of information as a function of risk-attitudes. General and simple decision rules are derived for cases where the utility function is concave (or convex) over the relevant payoff interval.The article further describes several experiments to test business students' intuitions concerning these optimal decision rules. In general, risk-taking attitudes did not correlate significantly with subjects' preferences for information, in violation of theorems regarding mean-preserving spreads of risk. Other tests, e.g., narrowing certain probability ranges, also resulted in preferences contrary to expected utility (EU) theory.     

Reconsidering the common ratio effect: the roles of compound independence,reduction, and coalescing

Common ratio effects should be ruled out if subjects’ preferences satisfy compound independence, reduction of compound lotteries, and coalescing. In other words, at least one of these axioms should be violated in order to generate a common ratio effect. Relying on a simple experiment, we investigate which failure of these axioms is concomitant with the empirical observation of common ratio effects. We observe that compound independence and reduction of compound lotteries hold, whereas coalescing is systematically violated. This result provides support for theories which explain the common ratio effect by violations of coalescing (i.e., configural weight theory) instead of violations of compound independence (i.e., rank-dependent utility or cumulative prospect theory).     

Making sense of social pretense: The effect of the dyad,sex, and language ability in a large observational study of children’s behaviors in a social pretend play context

Pretend play with peers is purportedly an important driver of social development in the preschool period; however, fundamental questions regarding the features of children's pretend play with a peer, and the effect of the dyad for pretend play, have been overlooked. The current study undertook detailed behavioral coding of social pretend play in 134 pairs of 5‐year‐old children (54% boys) in order to address three main aims: (a) describe the duration and proportion of children engaging in key social pretend play behaviors, namely calls for attention, negotiation (comprising role assignment and joint proposals) and enactment of pretend play, (b) examine the effect of the dyad in influencing the occurrence of different social pretend play behaviors, and (c) assess the independent and combined effect of individual child characteristics (i.e., language ability and sex) that may influence social pretend play behaviors beyond the influence of the dyad. Results demonstrated the overwhelming effect of the dyad in shaping children's social pretend play behaviors, with language ability and sex explaining relatively little of the total variability in play behaviors. Results are discussed considering the contribution that this type of study can make to theories of associations between children's social development and social pretend play.     

Collecting text messages from college students: Evaluating a novel methodology

Social interaction, particularly in older adolescents, increasingly involves computer‐mediated communication. Although studies of public computer‐mediated communication are increasingly common, studies of private text messaging remain rare. As approaches for obtaining such data evolve with technological advances, developmental scientists need designs in which to use such approaches that reduce sampling biases in both participants and text messages. In this study (n = 854; 46% male; 22% African American, 60% European American), we examined selection biases in the participant sample (i.e., factors associated with actual participation), procedural biases in the participant sample (i.e., factors related to failed data capture due to technological or procedural issues), and selection biases in the sample of text messages (i.e., based on self‐reported reasons for texting). Findings from our study suggest that studying human interaction directly through analysis of text message data is not only feasible, but also may be successfully undertaken with minimal biases regarding sample selection and text message selection among those who are engaged in research and engaged in text messaging outside of the study context. However, biases may occur depending on the type of platform (iPhone vs. Android) used by participants for texting.