县级财政生产性支出偏向研究(英文)

中国县级决策者主要对上级负责,追求尽可能高的经济增长率,而非居民福利最大化,导致其财政决策偏向生产性支出。基于2067个县（市）2001-2005年财政经济数据的实证检验,为县级财政生产性支出偏向的存在提供了有力的证据。生产性支出偏向严重地妨碍公共财政体制的建设和向公共服务型政府的转型。解决这一问题的根本出路在于逐步增强县级政府满足本地居民需求的激励。     

Vertical Distribution of Fiscal Revenue and Its Effect on Balancing Economic Growth

不断扩大的地区间差异困扰着中国发展, 并成为社会稳定的重要隐患。为了缓解 地区间差距可能引发的各种矛盾 ,中国政府在1994年分税体制改革之后确立了具有集 权倾向的财政收入垂直分配关系。通过财政资金的大规模双向流动, 这种财政收入垂 直分配关系促进了财政资金的跨区域配置和财政能力的地区间均等。但作为分权体制 的重要制度安排, 其在均衡地区间经济增长方面的作用却很有限, 主要表现为大规模 收入集中对经济发达地区的增长抑制。财政收入垂直分配关系的这些影响与地方财政 非税收入依赖程度以及中央专项补助水平存在明显交互作用, 前者显著弱化了财政收 入过度集中的不利增长效应, 后者却显著弱化了中央补助的增长激励。

关键词: 财政收入 集权倾向 均衡增长

Widening interregional disparity is an obstacle to China’s development and a serious latent threat to social stability. To alleviate conflicts that may arise from this disparity, the Chinese government established centrally-oriented vertical distribution of fiscal revenue following the 1994 tax-sharing reform. Through massive two-way funding flows, this vertical distribution has promoted the allocation of financial resources and equalization of fiscal capacity across regions. However, as an important institutional arrangement in decentralization, it has played a limited role in balancing interregional economic growth. This is mainly evident in the growth constraint on economically developed regions under large-scale revenue centralization. The effect of the vertical distribution of fiscal revenue clearly interacts with local reliance on non-tax revenue and the level of earmarked grant from the central government, with the former significantly weakening the anti-growth effect of excessive centralization of fiscal revenue and the latter markedly reducing the growth incentive of central government subsidies.     

Growth with Optimal Taxation and Public Spending Composition

本文将Barro模型关于内生公共支出的基本特征引入Chamley模型,考察了经济增 长中的最优税收与公共支出结构问题。利用两阶段逆向归纳法, 分别探讨了社会第一 优和次优的税收与公共支出结构的一般条件, 并通过一个具体例子给出了最优公共支 出与税收的显示路径。最后通过数值计算, 对中国的最优宏观税负水平进行了估计。 关键词: 最优税收 最优公共支出结构 经济增长 宏观税负

Incorporating endogenous public spending, the basic characteristic of the Barro model, into the Chamley model, this paper discusses the optimal taxation and public spending composition in economic growth. The two-stage backward induction method is adopted to explore the general optimality (including the first and second best) conditions for taxation and public spending, and the explicit solutions to optimal taxation and public spending composition are showed in a specific example. Finally, we estimate China’s optimal level of macro tax burden with the help of numerical calculation.     

The Scale of Government‐financed Persons in China and the Variables Affecting It: The Experience of the Last Ten Years of Institutional Reform

财政供养人员是政府的行政之基,其规模大小直接影响政府效能与社会和谐。1998年以来的政府机构改革,有效地抑制了财政供养规模的膨胀,中国当前的财政供养规模总体上处于安全水平、受控状态,但在优化财政供养人员的结构与功能方面仍然面临巨大挑战。中国的财政供养问题绝非是一个孤立的问题,而是与更深层的政府体制改革息息相关。财政供养问题其实是中国政府体制改革的一个缩影,政府体制很多深层次的问题都会在财政供养问题中得到集中反映,而财政供养存在的各种现实问题,也只有通过政府体制改革才能够从根本上解决。

关键词: 财政供养?机构改革?政府规模

Government‐financed persons (GFPs) form the basis of government administration and the number of the GFPs has a direct bearing on government efficiency and social harmony. Government restructuring since 1998 has effectively curbed inflation in the number of the GFPs, which at present remains at a safe overall level and under control. However, optimizing the structure and functions of GFPs still poses a huge challenge to the central government. The issue of GFPs is by no means an isolated one, but is closely related to government restructuring at a deeper level. In a real sense, the issue of GFPs is a microcosm of China's government restructuring and many of the underlying problems in the government system find a concentrated reflection in the question of GFPs. Conversely, many of the real problems in GFPs can only be thoroughly resolved by government restructuring.     

On the Economic Significance of Morality

道德作为特殊的生产性资源具有独特的经济价值, 不仅体现在创造使用价值的过 程中, 也体现在创造价值的过程中。现代企业的经营实践, 全面印证了道德与现代经 济的这种正向价值关联。但道德所具有的经济价值有其合理限度, 应在复杂的经济关 系中去理解、分析和利用道德的经济作用。

关键词: 道德 使用价值 价值 企业经营

As a special productive resource, morality has unique economic significance that is displayed in the process of production not only of use-value, but also of value. This positive value correlation has long been confirmed by the management practice of modern enterprises. The economic value of morality has, however, a rational limit; its economic role should be understood, analyzed and utilized in complex economic relations.     

Public policies affecting ethnic minorities in China

The original hypothesis of this research was that China has developed public policies to protect the rights and interests of its ethnic minorities. Using literature and web materials from different sources, however, the authors were unable to obtain findings to test this hypothesis. Nevertheless, from an analysis of 31 articles and books, eight research and news websites, and three Chinese government websites, we found three discussion areas on the relationship between public policies and ethnic minorities in China. These three areas are the characteristics of ethnic minorities in China, the theoretical underpinnings of studies of ethnic minorities in China, and recent migration patterns that affect ethnic minority populations. Limited by using scarce resources from existing literature, including general demographic and government websites, this article analyses whether policies have been formed to help ethnic minorities to be economically and politically productive.

本研究最原先的假设是中国已发展了一系列的公共政策以保护境内少数民族的权益。但是,作者无法从不同的文献和网络等获得资料以考证这个假设。不过,通过对三十一篇文章和书籍,八个研究及新闻网站,和三个中国政府的官方网站的分析后,我们发现有关研究中国公共政策和少数民族关系的三个范畴。这三个领域包括:中国少数民族的特征,中国少数民族的理论基础研究,以及近代移民模式对少数民族的影响。用现今有限的文献,包括一般人口资料和政府网站,本文分析了协助少数民族提高经济和政治生产力的政策是否已经形成。     

Performance Management in China: Its Characteristics in Practice and Its Theoretical Value

中西方国家政府绩效管理在宏观环境, 制度基础,功能定位等方面存在着诸多差 异,政府绩效管理的价值定位,指标体系,实施机制等要素也不尽相同。我国各地政 府在实施绩效管理的实践中借鉴西方绩效管理的经验, 又不单纯停留在制度移植与 照搬层面,而是着眼于我国经济社会发展, 人文环境,政府改革现状等实际,立足比 较,反思与超越的眼界,建设体现中国国情的中国式绩效管理模式,以积极推进政府 管理改革事业。基于政府绩效管理中西方之间经验的比较,分析中国特色的政府绩效 管理的实质和理论价值,可以发现这是一种新模式, 即创效式绩效管理模式,这一模 式涵括的体制,机制,功能, 辅助性创效等内在结构是完善的, 其未来发展路径还有 待深入探讨

Chinese and Western government performance management differs in terms of their macro-environment, institutional foundation and functional definition, as well as in their values, indicator systems and implementation mechanisms. In their practice, local governments in China go beyond institutional transplantation and imitation while learning from Western experience in performance management. Through comparison, reflection and efforts to surpass the West, and on the basis of the realities of China’s socioeconomic development, cultural conditions and governmental reform, they have initiated a Chinese performance management model that fits China’s conditions, with a view to vigorously advancing the enterprise of administrative reform. From comparing experience in China and the West and analyzing the essence and the theoretical value of the Chinese model, we can conclude that it is a new model that pursues innovation-led performance improvement. It has a well-established internal structure that seeks performance improvement across the dimensions of institutions, mechanisms, functions and supplementary aspects. Nevertheless, the approach to be taken in its future development remains to be further studied.     

Market Reform and the Widening of the Income Gap

在市场化过程中,中国出现了收入差距不断扩大的趋势,从而社会上出现了一些将收入差距扩大的原因归结为市场化改革的错误认识。本文通过对我国改革开放以来收入分配格局变化的主要特点和导致收入差距扩大的原因加以细致实证分析, 对一些模糊认识加以澄清。本文认为在个人收入差距扩大的诸多因素中,传统计划 体制遗留下来的一些制度和政策,在部门利益和地方利益驱使下新形成的有悖于市 场体制规则的制度和政策,政府对市场缺失和市场扭曲采取的不作为态度,对资本 节制和劳动保护的不足,政府对经济的过度干预,成为导致收入差距扩大和收入分 配不公的最重要因素。

关键词: 收入差距?改革?城乡?中国

In the course of marketization in China, there has been a trend for the income gap to become ever wider. Some people have mistakenly attributed the gap to market reforms. This article provides a detailed empirical analysis of the changes in income distribution patterns and the reasons for the increasing income gap to clear up such misunderstandings. We believe the most important factors in the widening of the income gap and unequal income distribution are institutions and policies inherited from traditional economic planning; newly emerging systems and policies driven by departmental and local interests that run counter to market laws; lack of government action on gaps or distortions in the market; insufficient capital regulation and labor protection; and excessive government intervention in the economy.     

Urbanization of Migrant Workers and Expansion of Domestic Demand

本文从一般均衡的视角，揭示农民工市民化与扩大内需的关系。中国之所以要立 足内需发展经济，应对外需下滑只是一个短暂的原因，其根本原因在于改变当前经济 内外失衡和产业结构失衡的“双失衡”格局，以及充分利用国内市场优势更好更快实 现工业化的需要。如果采取切实措施加快农民工市民化进程，则其潜在的消费需求就 可以充分释放出来。这不仅有助于抵消外需下滑对经济增长的负面影响，而且有助于 中国经济摆脱“双失衡”格局，全面提升中国工业化和城市化水平。

关键词: 农民工市民化?扩大内需?中国经济

This paper explores, from the perspective of general equilibrium, the relationship between urbanizing migrant workers and increasing domestic demand. Why should China adopt the strategy of relying on domestic demand to develop its economy? Countering the impact of declining external demand is only a temporary reason for doing so, and the more fundamental reason is the need to change the “dual imbalance” in today's economy: the imbalance between internal and external economic arrangements and the industry structural imbalance, as well as the need to take full advantage of the domestic market to achieve the goal of industrialization. The latent consumption demand of migrant workers will be fully released if realistic measures are taken to accelerate the pace of turning migrant workers into urban residents. This will help neutralize the negative impact of reduced external demand, as well as rectifying the structural imbalances in the Chinese economy and upgrading China's industrialization and urbanization.     

The Project System: A New Form of State Governance

作为新双轨制的增量部分, 项目制旨在通过国家财政的专项转移支付等项目手 段,突破以单位制为代表的原有科层体制的束缚,遏制市场体制所造成的分化效应, 加大民生工程和公共服务的有效投入. 以项目制为核心确立的新的国家治理体制,形 成了中央与地方政府之间的分级治理机制,并对基层社会产生了诸多意外后果。项目 制所引起的基层集体债务, 部门利益化以及体制的系统风险,对于可持续的社会发展 将产生重要影响.

As the incremental component of the new dual track system, the project system aims to use special transfer payments from state finances and other strategies to break the shackles of the existing bureaucratic order, as represented by the work unit system. This approach seeks to curb the polarization arising from marketization and increase investment in people’s livelihood and public services. The new project-centered system of governance has encouraged the formation of hierarchical central-local governance mechanisms, leading to a number of unforeseen outcomes for grassroots society. Collective debt at the grassroots level, departmental interests and the systemic risk brought about by the project system will have important implications for the sustainable development of society.     

Labor Market Segmentation,Job Mobility and the Two-track Model of Chinese Urban Workers’ Acquisition of Economic Status

使用“2009年中国社会网络与职业经历调查” (JSNET2009) 广州、上海、厦门、 济南和西安五城市数据, 检验了改革以后影响中国城市劳动者职业流动模式以及经济 地位获得的因素。研究结果表明, 高学历劳动者与低学历劳动者群体处于两个分割的 劳动力市场中, 他们的经济地位获得路径完全不同。对于低学历劳动者, 职业流动是 提升他们收入水平的最重要因素, 而人力资本因素 (受教育年限和工作经验) 对他们 的收入没有影响。高学历劳动者的情况刚好相反, 职业流动对收入获得没有任何作 用, 影响他们收入分层的最重要因素是人力资本。本研究揭示了转型期中国城市地区 不同劳动力市场劳动者的经济地位获得的二元路径模式。

关键词: 劳动力市场分割 职业流动 收入分层 人力资本回报

Using data from the “Survey of Social Networks and Occupational Experience in Chinese Cities in 2009” on five cities (Guangzhou, Shanghai, Xiamen, Jinan and Xi’an), this paper examines factors influencing Chinese urban workers’ patterns of job mobility and acquisition of economic status in the post-reform era. The results show that workers with high educational levels and those with low educational levels occupy different segments of the labor market and have completely different paths to economic status acquisition. In the case of workers with a low educational level, job mobility is the most important factor boosting income levels, while human capital variables (years of schooling and work experience) have no effect on income. By contrast, job mobility has no effect on the income of workers with a high educational level, whose income stratification is most affected by their human capital. This research reveals the two-track model of urban workers’ acquisition of economic status in different urban labor markets in transitional China.     

Asset‐based policy in rural China: an innovation in the retirement social insurance programme1

In response to growing rural–urban inequality, China is undertaking a series of policy initiatives to promote rural development. In addition to redistributive policy aiming at social protection, asset‐based policy, which integrates social protection and social investment, are a viable option for progressive rural development. In 1998, the Hutubi local government in Xinjiang, China, implemented an innovative retirement programme that allows account holders to use accounts as legal collateral to borrow small loans and invest in productive assets, education, and small businesses. Using the data gathered by the programme organizers and in‐depth interviews with programme participants, this case study closely examines the Hutubi programme. We examine the programme's key features, which have effectively encouraged asset building in a rural community, and identify the programme's strengths and weaknesses. The success of the Hutubi programme has implications for asset‐based policy development in rural China.

为了回应城乡日益扩大的不平等, 中国现正实施一系列新政策以鼓励农村发展。 除了以社会保护为目的的再分配政策外, 资产为本的政策综合了社会保护和社会投资, 是推进农村进步性发展的可行选择。 1998年, 中国新疆呼图壁地区政府实施了崭新的养老计划, 容许户口持有人利用保险户口作为法律担保, 借出小额贷款及投资在具有效益的资产、教育及小型企业上。

透过项目组织者所收集的数据, 以及与参与者进行的深入访谈, 本研究个案将详细剖析呼图壁项目。 我们检视了项目的主要特征, 这些特征有效地促成了农村社区资产的建立。 我们还分析了项目的优缺点。 呼图壁项目的成功对中国农村实行资产为本的政策发展有着深远的启示。     

A resilience perspective on family adjustment to cross‐border work arrangements of Hong Kong residents

With the close economic relationship between Hong Kong and the Mainland, cross‐border commutes for work have become an increasingly common work‐family arrangement for Hong Kong residents. Due to the special social context of Mainland China, the impact of the cross‐border work arrangement is mostly understood in terms of the cost or its negative impact on the families involved. However, this overlooks positive adjustment and its protective factors, which are present in many families. A clear conceptual framework is also lacking in previous studies. The different perspectives on work‐related mobility and family adjustment are reviewed. The resiliency perspective helps to provide a more inclusive understanding of the phenomenon. Based on the findings of in‐depth interviews with 20 families, this paper discusses the protective factors of family adjustment in relation to the cross‐border arrangements of Hong Kong residents.

随着香港与内地密切经济关系的建立,跨境工作已成为一种越来越常见于香港居民的工作与家庭安排。由于中国大陆特殊的社会环境,多数对跨境工作的理解都集中于这种工作安排对家庭的负面影响而忽略了其积极的调整和保护因素。同时,以往的研究也往往缺乏清晰的概念框架。本文回顾了不同角度讨论与就业相关的人口流动和家庭适应的研究,希望有助于提供一个更全面的理解。本文根据与二十个家庭深度访谈的结果,讨论了家庭适应的保护因素与香港居民跨境工作安排的关系。     

The Relationship between Government on One Side and the Market and Society on the Other in China's Agricultural and Rural Development: An Analytical Framework

统筹城乡发展要求政府承担促进农业农村发展的责任。我国政府以国家干预、政 府主导为特征的农业农村政策,在农业发展、农民增收和城乡协调发展等方面都已取 得较大进展,但现有农业政策在提高农业生产率方面的限度日益显现。有鉴于此,急 需构建一个政府调控和引导农业农村发展的新的分析框架,在其中,政府需要界分与 市场、农村社会组织之间的行为边界,在充分尊重市场配置资源的基础性作用、尊 重农村社会自主管理的基础上,体现政府职能的“兜底”特征;而且,政府在构建市 场/社会运行的基本制度、匡正和补充市场/社会失灵、培育市场/社会主体等职能中需 要进行逻辑先后排序。应用这一新分析框架,加强和改善政府对农业农村发展的调控 和引导,就需要基于农业市场化取向改革农村基本经营制度和农业支持保护体系,注 重对农业生产市场主体的培育;需要以政府为主体构建城乡一体化的基本公共服务体 系,创新农村社会管理体制,充分调动社会力量参与公共事务治理;需要基于城乡一 体化要求重构政府行政管理体制,确保农业农村发展政策的落实。

关键词: 统筹城乡发展?政府?市场?社会

The integrated development of urban and rural areas requires that the government take responsibility for the overall development of the countryside. Chinese agricultural and rural policies characterized by state intervention and government leadership have played an important role in promoting agricultural development and increasing farmers' incomes as well as balancing development in urban and rural areas. However, the effectiveness of current agricultural policies in promoting agricultural productivity is now clearly leveling off. Given this situation, the authors argue that it is imperative to construct a new analytical framework featuring government regulation and guidance of agricultural and rural development. In this framework, the government must clearly define the boundaries between its activities and those of the market and rural social organizations. While fully respecting the fundamental role of the market in allocation of resources and rural self‐management, the government should exercise its power as a backstop. Further, the government needs to establish a logical sequence for government functions such as formulating the basic operating system of the market and society, correcting market failure and social dysfunction and cultivating market/social entities. To use this new analytical framework to strengthen and improve its regulation and guidance of agricultural and rural development, the government needs to reform the basic rural management and agricultural support and protection systems and to pay attention to the cultivation of market entities in agricultural production on the basis of agricultural marketization. Furthermore, it needs to construct a basic urban‐rural integrated public service system with the government as the leading actor, carry out innovations in the management system of rural society and fully mobilize the social forces to take part in the administration of public affairs. It also needs to reconstruct the system of government administration and management to ensure the thorough implementation of agricultural and rural development policies.     

The Development of Early Modern Chinese Economics: Based on Investigation of Doctoral Dissertations by Chinese Students Studying Abroad in the Late Qing and Republican Periods

在早期移植西方经济理论的过程中, 近代留学生群体对中国现代经济学的产生、 发展起了极其重要的作用。他们一方面运用现代经济理论分析中国经济问题, 促进经 济学的中国化、本土化, 为解决中国经济问题寻求答案; 另一方面敏锐把握经济学发 展的时代脉搏, 勇于创新, 跻身世界经济学学术之林。

关键词: 近代留学生 现代经济学 博士论文

In the initial period of transplanting Western economic theory, Chinese students studying abroad in the late Qing and Republican periods played a very important role in the formation and development of modern Chinese economics. On the one hand, by applying modern economic theory to Chinese economic problems, they sought solutions to these problems and facilitated the Sinicization and localization of economics; on the other, they kept pace with the latest developments in economics and were bold innovators, with some entering the ranks of world famous economists.     

Analysis of China's Unequal Income Distribution from the Perspective of Functional Income Distribution

中国收入分配的不平等在很大程度上表现为功能性收入分配的不平等,即随着经 济的发展,工资性收入占国民收入的比例越来越小,而现阶段中国二元经济结构下的 无限劳动力供给则是其主要原因。在一个具有凯恩斯主义特征的非均衡动态模型框架 下,我们的分析表明,劳动力的无限供给,不仅使工资无法对劳动力市场的供求状况 进行反应,而且使劳动生产率和物价变化对工资的影响也不敏感。这意味着,当存在 着劳动生产率的提高或由经济增长所带动的物价上涨时,工资的提高不够显著,从而 由经济增长或劳动生产率的提高所带来的利益大部分转化为利润而非工资。基于此, 要彻底扭转中国收入分配恶化趋势,根本途径仍然是保持经济的高速增长,加快工业 化和城市化进程,从而使农村剩余劳动力能够尽快被吸收。

关键词: 功能性收入?二元经济?劳动力供给

China's unequal income distribution is to a large extent expressed in unequal functional income distribution, that is, as China's economy develops, the share of wage income in national income falls. The unlimited supply of labor under China's current dual economic structure is the major reason for this. In a disequilibrium dynamic model framework with Keynesian features, empirical analysis shows that the unlimited supply of labor not only prevents wages from responding to supply and demand situation in the labor market, but also makes them insensitive to labor productivity and price changes. This suggests that when there is a rise in labor productivity or prices following economic growth, the rise in wages may not be sufficiently marked. The benefits derived from economic growth or labor productivity increases have been, to a very large extent, converted into profits and not wages. Therefore, if we are to reverse China's worsening income distribution, our fundamental path should remain the maintenance of high‐speed growth and the acceleration of urbanization and industrialization so that surplus rural labor can be absorbed as soon as possible.     

Confucian Filial Piety,Economic Growth and Divergence among Civilizations

应用经济学方法研究儒家孝道思想对古代社会经济增长的影响机制, 可以发现, 在信贷市场极不完备的古代, 孝道作为一个独特的代际契约履约机制, 能在一定程度 上克服代际契约中的证实和承诺问题, 从而以一种增加储蓄的方式有效促进古代社会 的经济增长。然而, 实施和维持孝道却不完全是自发的, 需要来自统治者的干预。而 对于统治者来说, 他需要将资源在配置给生产和配置给战争之间权衡。这一权衡决定 了一个社会均衡的孝道水平。通过比较中原文明、匈奴游牧文明和罗马文明的历史, 证明了上述观点, 从而在一定程度上解释了东西方文明的差异。

This paper employs an economic approach to analyze the influence of Confucian filial piety on economic growth in ancient China. In the highly imperfect credit market of the time, filial piety, as a unique mechanism for fulfilling intergenerational contracts, could to some extent solve problems of verifiability and commitment and thus effectively promote economic growth by increasing savings. However, the implementation and maintenance of filial piety were not spontaneous; it required external intervention by the rulers. Rulers faced a tradeoff when allocating resources between production and war. It was this tradeoff that determined the level of filial piety in society. A comparison between the civilizations of the Central Plains, nomadic Xiongnu society and ancient Rome verifies our proposition and thus explains in some degree the difference between Eastern and Western civilizations.     

Capital-embodied Technological Change and Its Contribution to Economic Growth: 1981-2007∗

本文将资本分为建筑资本和设备资本两类,利用内生经济增长模型阐释资本体现 式技术进步对经济增长的作用,并利用资本质量指数调整设备资本存量,考察资本即 期服务效率调整后的资本体现式技术进步对我国经济增长的贡献率,结果显示:设备 资本投资中的体现式技术进步年均增长率为4.78%,对经济增长的贡献率为10.6%, 占资本贡献的14.8%。技术进步贡献呈阶段性变化,且不同类型技术进步贡献出现分 化。相对于20世纪80年代,90年代后资本体现式技术进步贡献呈下降趋势,而中性技 术进步贡献呈现先降后升的变化特征,但降幅大、升幅小。

关键词:设备资本 资本体现式技术进步 资本服务效率

This paper classifies capital into structure capital and equipment capital and uses the endogenous economic growth model to illustrate the role of capital-embodied technological change in economic growth. In addition it adopts the capital quality index to adjust equipment capital stocks in order to examine the contribution to economic growth of capital- embodied technological change after adjusting for current capital service efficiency. The results show that embodied technological change (ETC) in equipment capital has an average annual growth rate of 4.78 percent accounting for 10.6 percent of economic growth and 14.8 percent of the total capital contribution. The contribution of technological change varies with development stage and the contribution of different types of technological change varies. Compared with the 1980s the period starting from the 1990s has seen a steady fall in the contribution of capital-embodied technological change and a V-shaped evolution in the contribution of neutral technological change (NTC) with the fall being larger than the rise     

Current Situation and Prospects for the Urbanization of Chinese Migrant Workers

本论文运用年龄结构—生命周期方法分析农民工就业状况对他们城镇化的影响。基于中国企业用工年轻化、农民工失业中年化的现状，论文首先运用年龄结构—生命周期模型进行了估算，指出为了全家城镇化，农民工夫妻婚后一般需要连续工作30年。在此基础上，论文构建了农民工工作寿命表，用以估算中国具备城镇化最低限度经济能力的农民工总量。考虑到未来企业用工年龄结构的变化，预计2006年时年龄在30岁以下的6900多万农民工及其家属都已具备在城镇定居的最起码的经济条件。

关键词: 农民工城镇化?农民工就业?年龄结构—生命周期模型?工作年限?中年失业

This article uses the age‐structure/life‐cycle method to analyze the impact of migrant workers’ employment on their urbanization. Since enterprises tend to employ younger workers and unemployed migrant workers tend to be middle‐aged, we first apply the age structure/life cycle model to carry out our estimations, pointing out that in order to complete the urbanization of their families, migrant worker couples usually have to work for thirty years consecutively after marriage. On this basis, the article constructs a working life table for migrant workers and uses it to estimate the total quantity of Chinese migrant workers who have the minimum economic capacity required for urbanization. Taking into consideration future changes in the age structure of enterprise employment, we estimate that over the sixty‐ nine million migrant workers who were under thirty years old in 2006, together with their families, would already be in possession of the minimum economic conditions for settling in urban areas.     

Rise and Fall: Deciphering Urban Sites and their Environment in Overlapping Agrarian/Pastoral Regions — Based on Examination of the Border Fortified Camps along the Yansui Section of the Great Wall during the Ming Dynasty

陕北长城沿线属黄土高原与鄂尔多斯沙地交接地带，也是北方农牧交错地带，历 史上经常是游牧民族与农耕民族争夺的地域。明延绥长城及沿线39营堡就是在蒙汉争 战过程中构筑起来的。由于营堡与交通走廊互为一体，带动了经济发展，历明清两代 三百多年，发挥了重要的政治、经济与交通中心作用。它的废毁是在晚清民国时期， 今天大多已沦为废城。究其原因，城址选择上过多考虑军事防守需要是主因，而边疆 内地化及沿边经济结构变动加速了其衰亡。因此，北方农牧交错地带城堡的兴衰与王 朝的政治、军事行动相关联，与民族、部落流转迁徙及文明演进过程相一致，其中的 历史成因极其复杂，地址废弃往往是多方面因素造成的。

关键词: 明清?鄂尔多斯南缘?农牧交错带?城址?环境

The area along the Grear Wall in northern Shaanxi between the Loess Plateau and the Ordos Desert is one of the major agrarian‐pastoral regions of northwest China. Historically, the land was fought over by the nomadic and the agrarian peoples of the region. The Yansui section of the Ming Great Wall and thirty‐nine fortified encampments along it were built during fighting between the Mongols and the Han people. As all of them were located along communication lines vital to economic development, they played an important role in politics, the economy and transport over three hundred years of Ming and Qing rule. However, they fell into disuse in the late Qing and the Republican period and are now in ruins. The main reason underlying their decline was that the sites had been chosen for their defensive value, so the subsequent northern expansion of China's borders and structural changes in the border economy hastened their decline. Thus the rise and fall of these fortified towns at the intersection of the agrarian and the pastoral regions was closely related to imperial political and military activity and was in line with ethnic and tribal movements and migrations and the evolution of civilizations. In sum, the reasons behind the demise of these fortified towns and camps were highly complex and usually involved multiple factors.