The E nigma of Under-urbanization: An Explanation Based on International Trade

To study the relationship between under-urbanization and international trade, we set up a model of the transfer of surplus rural labor in an open economy using 1995-2010 data from 40 countries and regions where industrialization was incomplete. Our findings indicate that if, in an open economy, there is a substantial labor surplus and in which domestic goods and services can be sold to foreign markets, there will be a significantly positive correlation between the net export ratio and the degree to which urbanization lags behind industrialization; countries or regions with higher marketization level, lower urban unemployment rate and poorer public health facilities are more likely to be under- urbanized; and an inverted U-shaped relationship exists between under-urbanization and per capita GDP.     

Macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A global CGE analysis

This paper analyzes the ex-ante short-term impacts of the Chinese RMB appreciation on the Chinese and world economy, using a novel approach of modeling nominal exchange rate adjustment in the GTAP, a global CGE model. Scenario results show that Chinese economy will be affected negatively, with lower real GDP, lower employment rates, and a decline in the trade surplus. Chinese currency appreciation has positive impact on the GDP of the major countries and regions, although by a small margin. With higher Chinese exchange rate, trade balance for other trading partner countries improves with the exception of the U.S.     

North-South relations: Alternative policy simulations for the world economy in the 1980s

This article makes projections of the world economy in the North-South context for the period 1981–1990 using a latest global version of a macroeconomic model named FUGI-GNEM type IV 011–62. The model classifies the world into 62 countries/regions, where the North-South interdependence is incorporated into an integral part of the world economy through international economic linkages. Based on alternative simulations, the author presents future images of the North-South interdependent world economy through changes in economic growth rates, employment, wages, prices, money supply, interest rates, public finance, trade, capital movement, international balance of payments, foreign exchange rates, etc., in each country or region. The model forecasts that the real economic growth of the developing countries as a whole in the 1980s will likely be around 4%–7% annual rate according to alternative policy scenarios.     

Prospects for trade in manufactured goods between industrial and developing countries, 1978–1990

This paper examines prospective changes in trade in manufactured goods between the industrial and the developing countries. Assuming the continuation of the policies followed by the industrial countries, it is projected that the manufactured imports of these countries from the developing countries would rise at an average annual rate of 12.5% between 1978 and 1980 while their manufactured exports would increase 9 7% a year. Nonetheless, the export surplus of the industrial countries in trade in manufactured goods would rise, contributing to the growth of industrial output. The expansion of their exports of manufactured goods would also contribute to economic growth in the developing countries, and both groups of countries would benefit from specialization according to comparative advantage.     

论发展旅游业对黑龙江县域经济的推动作用

黑龙江是农业大省,县域经济在全省经济中占有十分重要的地位。我省旅游资源丰富,这些资源是发展县域经济的物质基础和宝贵财富。搞好旅游资源开发,培育旅游产业,对于推动县域经济结构调整,解决农村剩余劳动力,带动第三产业发展,推动城镇化建设将起到非常积极的作用。     

The Influence of “Made in China” on the Great Moderation of the Global Economy：An Empirical Test Based on Value Chains*

We have collected data on China’s 22 main trading partners for 1984-2012 and used System GMM to study the influence of “Made in China” on the “Great Moderation” of the global economy. Our research shows that although trade scale, real effective exchange rate, oil prices, fixed capital investment and other variables have significantly expanded global economic volatility, “Made in China” has markedly restrained output growth rate fluctuations in countries around the world and price fluctuations in developed countries, helping the global economy develop with “high growth, low volatility.” “Made in China” is a long-term variable in the context of the global value chain. China needs to take advantage of global value chain restructuring to further upgrade and develop processing and manufacturing industry and expand its presence in the international market. It could choose to adopt a “mirror strategy” and launch trade sanctions targeting counterpart industries or enterprises to counter irrational trade sanctions from the developed countries. At the same time, however, it is important for China to make its own contribution to improve global economic governance and building a new international economic order in the era of global value chains by strengthening its policy coordination with other countries.     

Trade options for a small open economy: The different impact of Taiwan exports to China and to other countries

This study aims to explore advantageous trade arrangements for a small open economy. To discover the arrangement, the fundamental question to ask is how trade affects a small economy. Due to the differential factor mobility, the two main streams of trade theory—new economic geography and comparative advantage—make divergent predictions of trade effects. This study identifies the differences in factor mobility and distinguishes the differential impacts of exports to China and other countries on Taiwan’s manufacturing clusters. Using Taiwan’s 2006 and 2011 census data and trade statistics, this study applies the two-stage least squares method to test the differential impacts. The findings reveal that the growth in Taiwan’s exports to other countries significantly increased the employment level of manufacturing clusters in Taiwan. However, such effects have not been found for exports to China. The lack of response in Taiwan’s local employment to exports to China can be inferred as a short-term exhibition of the long-run core-periphery effect. The policy implication of this study is that trade involving low factor mobility is more beneficial than that involving high factor mobility for a small open economy. Thus, for a small economy, trade liberalization that will ‘not’ attract large factor outflows from the small economy is more desirable.     

核心-外围论对中国的分析--贸易条件-贸易结构-国民经济结构分析

核心-外围论一定程度上反映了在开放的经济中发达国家和发展中国家的关系.文章从贸易条件角度,对核心-外围论进行了实证分析,并使用包括净贸易条件、收入贸易条件和要素贸易条件,对我国贸易状况进行了具体分析.贸易结构是贸易条件的重要影响因素,而贸易结构是依附于生产结构的,经济或生产结构决定了贸易结构的合理程度.文章在此基础上分析核心-外围论在中国的适用性及其意义.     

Intellectual property rights,informal economy,and FDI into developing countries

We explore the relationship between intellectual property rights (IPR), the informal economy, and foreign direct investment (FDI) into developing countries. Intuitively, stronger IPR protection attracts more FDI in countries with small informal economies but not in countries with large informal economies. The intuition is that the informal economy is a proxy for the quality of institutions. In institutionally strong countries, IPR protection promotes FDI by reducing illegal imitation and freeing up more resources for MNCs. Our empirical analysis, based on a threshold effect model, provides some evidence supportive of our model.     

Sudden stop and trade balance reversal after Asian crisis: Investment drought impact versus exchange rate depreciation

After the Asian crisis in 1997, the respective trade balances of Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand reversed suddenly from deficit to surplus. By particularly addressing the sudden cessation of investment caused by the financial crisis, it is demonstrated that the IS balance adjustment dominates real exchange rate depreciation, indicating that to reform the large external imbalance of Asian countries, which is a major component of global imbalance, policymakers should target domestic absorption. Furthermore, it can be demonstrated that the large trade balance surplus of Asian countries will decrease along with recovery. Finally, policy implications related to the recent Euro crisis are provided.     

WTO贸易政策对中国林产品贸易政策的影响

以世界贸易组织原则为核心的国际贸易政策越来越多地影响着各种贸易行为和贸易政策制定。林产品贸易是一个国家国际贸易总和的一部分 ,对许多发展中国家来说 ,林产品的进出口蕴藏着极有经济价值的潜能并将为其服务。为适应多边自由贸易体制 ,阐述了WTO贸易政策的一般规范与扩展 ,分析了其对中国林产品贸易政策的影响以及我国林产品贸易面对WTO的贸易政策所应采取的战略对策。     

Empirical aspects of protectionism: LINK results

General aspects of protectionism as they are revealed or treated in the LINK system are discussed in this paper. Attention is focused on the macroeconomic aspects of protection, about which relatively little is known: most of the vast body of knowledge on this subject concerns the microeconomic aspects of protection. Some simulations of trade liberalization (opposite of protectionism) and of protection within the context of the LINK system are reported. A movement away from protection would benefit the present world economy but not by a large enough extent to deal effectively with pressing international economic problems; therefore, trade liberalization within the context of a larger program of coordination policy among major industrial countries is examined. Finally, the relationship between protectionism and inflation is explored.     

越南加入WTO后经贸形势及前景

2007年1月，越南正式成为世贸组织的成员国，其经济日益融入世界经济。随着世界市场组织形式和贸易方式的变化，全球化趋势越来越明显，越南加入WTO后其贸易获得发展良机，缩短了与世界经济的距离。同时，碰到的问题也是前所未有的。特别是2008年初，遭到通货膨胀打击，导致经济发展减缓。但随着世界经济的好转，越南贸易也将在2009年随着国内经济的复苏而出现较大发展。     

Convergence of ecological footprint and sustainable policy options

Human activities impact on environment and resources needs policy actions. We provide a new multivariate model which helps to assess how to shape and quantify appropriate policy responses taking into account equity and sustainability. The model analyzes the joint dynamic growth rate of three relevant components of ecological footprint: cropland factor; water resources usage; CO2 emissions, estimating their joint rate of convergence, explicitly including conditioning variables, in the period 1971–2018. This model provides a quantitative assessment of the determinants of convergence across countries, that might help policy makers to take measures to enhance the success of achieving the target. Results show that countries with lowest levels of the ecological footprint components are growing faster than those countries with the highest level of these components. In addition, a higher participation to the international trade (openness of the economy) and a higher investment share is beneficial to accelerate the countries’ dynamics toward a converging path characterized by a more sustainable ecological footprint.     

A disaggregated model of world production and trade: An estimate of the impact of the Tokyo Round

We present in this paper a computational model of world production, trade, and employment that is disaggregated by country and sector and report on the application of the model to the changes in tariffs and quantifiable nontariff barriers negotiated in the Tokyo Round that was concluded in 1979. The model incorporates supply and demand functions and market-clearing conditions for 22 tradable industries, plus markets for 7 nontradable industries, in each of the 18 major industrialized countries and 16 major developing countries. The equations of the model are presented in the text and the explicit functional forms in an appendix. The implementation of the model is discussed briefly.Application of the model to the Tokyo Round suggested that there will be small but beneficial effects on trade, domestic prices, and economic welfare in practically all the major industrialized countries and in some of the major developing countries. Because many of the NTB codes negotiated in the Tokyo Round were stated in advisory terms, their impact cannot be evaluated unambiguously at present. Further, many existing NTBs of importance were exempted altogether from the negotiations. The Tokyò Round must be viewed accordingly as having dealt with a somewhat limited part of all interferences with trade.     

The transfer of arms and the diffusion of democracy: do arms promote or undermine the “third wave”?

The post–Cold War world has witnessed a proliferation of countries governed by democratic rule. Consequently, optimism has arisen about the prospects for the spread of freedom along with democratic peace and prosperity. Along these lines, many democratic countries have made the active promotion of democracy an explicit goal and a condition for third world countries’ assistance. However, such intentions may be threatened by the ever-present arms trade. Not only do arms transfers play a key role in the foreign policies of many democratic countries, but many developing countries continue to purchase arms from abroad at a steady rate. From the perspective of the developing recipients, this study seeks to empirically assess the impact of the arms trade on democratization. To this end, this paper utilizes an exploratory data technique, locally weighted scatterplot smoother (LOWESS) to examine data for developing countries between 1982 and 1992. By exploring graphically the patterns and distributions revealed by these indicators, the implications of the international arms trade for the spread of democracy are assessed.     

Agricultural economic reforms,gender inequality and poverty in Senegal

In Senegal, as in many developing countries, the agricultural sector plays a key role in the economy. In addition to supplying food, agriculture is the most important source of employment, especially for women. Through the Plan for an Emerging Senegal (PES), the Senegalese government is implementing an ambitious financing plan to improve the productivity of the agricultural sector and enhance employment opportunities for women. Our study assesses the impact of two PES measures (investment subsidies and an increase in production subsidies for the agricultural sectors) on economic growth, women's employment, poverty and inequality using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model. The results show that both policies have generally positive effects in reducing poverty and gender inequalities. However, investment subsidies in the agricultural sectors have stronger impacts in reducing gender inequality and poverty in the long term.     

Child Malnutrition and Mortality in Developing Countries: Evidence from a Cross-Country Analysis

In this article, after having identified the main clusters of food-insecure households worldwide, and summarily analyzed their livelihood profiles, we discuss the interaction and relevance of the most relevant key economic and social factors causing child malnutrition and mortality. On the basis of an essential but consistent World Bank database, covering all developing and transition countries, we also carry out a cross-country econometric analysis on relations of income and non-income factors with child malnutrition and mortality. Our main findings are threefold. First, among income factors, each country's overall level of economic development is paramount, but income distribution also plays an important role. Second, taking into account that public provision of basic services tends to increase with economic growth, each country's relative propensity to spend on basic services is significantly and negatively correlated with child malnutrition and mortality. Third, gender-related cultural factors also play a large role.     

An international trade model to capture linkages among supply-constrained economies

The development of a country's domestic and international markets depends on its own actions as much as on those of its trading partners. The study of market linkages is thus vital for policy making. Borrowing from the conceptual framework of Leontief's input-output analysis and from the national accounts equation, this paper presents a new model to calculate multilateral trade multipliers while minimizing data requirements. The novelty of the approach consists in the column-wise (supply-oriented) normalization of trade as opposed to the row-wise (demand-oriented) normalization that prevails in the literature. The explanatory power of the model has been successfully tested on data that refer to 1973–1974. Divergence from reality inevitably reflects the great fluidity that characterized trade during that period. Although most successful when applied to trade among supply-oriented economies (such as those of socialist or developing countries), at present empirical tests have been run only for a handful of OECD and OPEC countries.     

Globalization and income inequality: Implications for intellectual property rights

This paper examines the impact of globalization on income inequality for a cross-section of 62 developing countries over a period of 17 years (1985–2001). The results of the study indicate that globalization explains only 15% of the variance in income inequality. More specifically, the results show that (1) strengthening intellectual property rights and openness are positively correlated with income inequality; (2) foreign direct investment is negative and significantly correlated with income inequality but this is not robust to different model specifications; (3) the institutional infrastructure is negatively correlated with income inequality. The study's findings and the review of the literature suggest that globalization has both costs and benefits and that the opportunity for economic gains can be best realized within an environment that supports and promotes sound and credible government institutions, education and technological development.