交互式多目标协商模型在谈判领域中的应用研究

本文将经典协商理论与多目标决策理论进行了综合集成,并应用于面向电子商务的谈判支持系统中.本文重点探讨了系统利用该种方法搜索冲突瓶颈问题的算法.     

面向电子商务的一对多谈判支持模型

谈判支持系统(NSS)是群决策支持系统的一个重要分支,其目的是促进电子商务购销交易,协调交易中存在的冲突。目前的谈判支持系统主要以支持两方谈判为主,但企业往往就某一问题需同时与多个可能合作伙伴展开谈判。这类谈判称为一对多谈判,有着与两方谈判不同的特点。因此,现有的谈判支持模型无法完成对一对多谈判的支持。为了满足企业现实中大量存在的一对多谈判需求,本文提出并详细描述了一种一对多谈判支持模型。     

基于期间收益的企业并购谈判模型

借鉴协商和讨价还价理论,建立了企业并购谈判模型,利用博弈论工具对模型进行了求 解. 同时,针对一些并购谈判需要时间较长的现实情况,对目标企业在谈判期间具有期间收益 的并购谈判模型进行了一些初步的研究.     

基于协调人的多对多谈判支持研究

为了解决多对多谈判难于组织和难与决策支持的问题,协调人被引入到多对多谈判研究,构建了基于协调人的多对多谈判冲突模型,对基于协调人的多对多谈判问题进行分解,利用启发式算法对协调入问题求解帕累托解,通过帕累托解点的移动获取帕累托最优解,最后通过一个实例分析验证了基于协调人的多对多谈判支持模型的有效性和实用性.     

基于Agent的电子商务交易协商静态模型研究

电子商务的成功与否,协商、谈判等活动是至关重要的,为了提高交易效率和降低交易成本,有必要实现电子交易的自动或半自动协商.本文在现有的一些成果基础上,提出了采用Agent技术的交易协商模型.该模型的建立是基于对策论基础上产生的,讨论了在具有多目标属性及信息不完全性情形下的协商过程,最后得出了在这种情形下进行多回合协商时应如何采取最优策略使自己获得最大的满意结果.     

面向电子商务的基本遗传算法的Agent 谈判模型

探讨Agent 技术和遗传算法在电子商务网上谈判中的应用,为网上谈判的开展提供定量 和优化模型. 首先对三种基于Agent 的主流谈判模型进行比较研究;其次,从三个角度对谈判 模型进行分类,并确定基于Agent 技术的谈判系统的目标和特征;进一步研究基于遗传算法的 Agent 谈判模型,并对模型进行仿真实验,以证明模型的有效性. 该模型的特点是Agent 能在谈 判过程中学习和发展新的谈判策略.     

人工免疫算法在面向电子商务的自动谈判系统中的应用研究

随着分布式人工智能和电子商务的迅猛发展,面向电子商务的自动谈判系统正变得日益重要.自动谈判系统是利用谈判软件Agent部分或全部代替人进行网上谈判,能够提高谈判效率,降低采购和销售成本,在未来电子商务发展中将具有非常重要的作用.但是目前在实践中仍然缺乏理想的谈判策略模型.本文应用人工免疫算法设计软件Agent的谈判策略,以尽量减少人的参与,并为自动谈判系统的研究提供一种新的解决思路.     

基于Kuipers定性仿真算法的多议题谈判模型研究

本文结合谈判问题的相关研究,应用Kuipers的定性仿真算法对多属性谈判问题进行了仿真,仿真过程符合谈判的逻辑和人们的直观推测,能够清晰反映谈判的变化趋势,该定性仿真谈判模型对具体谈判问题具有更强的适应性,解决了传统定量仿真中由于不确定性产生的问题,能够为谈判各方的决策提供有力支持。     

供应链上企业间协同谈判模型和原型研究

本文对面向业务流程集成的协同谈判进行研究。这种新的谈判模式的特点是通过约束传播与约束放松来调整谈判各方的利益,达到共赢。本文建立了协同谈判中多线程间的状态机谈判协议,提出了多线程间基于域传播算法的协同谈判策略和谈判模型,并通过研制原型系统进行实验,证实了本文所提出的协同谈判理论和方法的正确性。本文提出的协同谈判模型可以解决供应链上企业同时与多个上、下游企业的谈判问题,可通过改变业务流程,使供应链上的企业达到双赢,提高谈判的效率。     

多方-多属性电子商务谈判支持系统研究

为了更好地对企业电子商务谈判提供支持,提高现有谈判支持系统实用性和可扩展性,建立了多方-多属性电子商务谈判系统。在对企业电子商务谈判支持需求分析的基础上,提出了基于通用多方谈判协议的多方-多属性谈判的过程支持和决策支持框架,建立了原型系统,并通过谈判实验的方式对该系统的实用性和易用性进行了检验。     

Introduction to Special Section on Sensitivity Analysis and Summary of NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis

This guest editorial is a summary of the NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis held June 11–12, 2001 at North Carolina State University and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis. The objective of the workshop was to learn across disciplines in identifying, evaluating, and recommending sensitivity analysis methods and practices for application to food‐safety process risk models. The workshop included presentations regarding the Hazard Assessment and Critical Control Points (HACCP) framework used in food‐safety risk assessment, a survey of sensitivity analysis methods, invited white papers on sensitivity analysis, and invited case studies regarding risk assessment of microbial pathogens in food. Based on the sharing of interdisciplinary information represented by the presentations, the workshop participants, divided into breakout sessions, responded to three trigger questions: What are the key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods applied to food‐safety risk assessment? What sensitivity analysis methods are most promising for application to food safety and risk assessment? and What are the key needs for implementation and demonstration of such methods? The workshop produced agreement regarding key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods and the need to use two or more methods to try to obtain robust insights. Recommendations were made regarding a guideline document to assist practitioners in selecting, applying, interpreting, and reporting the results of sensitivity analysis.     

Distinguishing traumatic, vicarious and routine operational stressor exposure and attendant adverse consequences in a sample of police officers

Problems in studying occupational stress within the police service are identified and the paucity of work on operational duties as potential stressors are discussed. The present study reports the results of a factor analysis of operational stressors (N = 601 serving British police officers) that revealed three factors: exposure to death and disaster; violence and injury; sexual crime. These were demonstrated to be reliable scales and were included in logistic regression models together with a range of demographic and psychological variables. Models were applied to men and women separately, which showed there to be different predictors of the likelihood of suffering distress (measured by the General Health Questionnaire, GHQ) in terms of the officer's gender and operational role. Overall the model for women officers was better at predicting psychological distress than that for men. These findings are related to aspects of the police occupational culture. Further discussion is offered that conceptualizes police operational stressors as traumatic, routine and vicarious. Finally, some implications are drawn for the provision of stress intervention in the light of this differentiation.     

Criteria for selecting a production control philosophy

Logistic objectives constitute a compromise between having short leadtimes and a low volume of work in progress on the one hand and a high resource loading and due date obligation on the other. Miscellaneous production planning approaches offered today provide different combinations of logistic objectives for satisfying a manufacturing strategy. To combine the strength of the various approaches into a unified system, a new approach based on a dynamic and distributed production planning methodology is proposed. To customize the approach, various analyses and specifications have to be made and for that reason some important characteristics and criteria for analysing production control philosophies will be given.     

The social construction of the meaning of acute stressors: a qualitative study of the personal accounts of police officers using a stress counselling service

The police profession is one in which acute stressors are encountered more frequently than in other occupations. Using the personal accounts of 35 police officers attending an in-house stress counselling clinic, the aim of the present study was to provide a qualitative examination of how the institutional context of policing influenced the ways in which acute stressors signified to individual police officers experiencing felt distress. Using the framework of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy as an analytical tool, it is argued that beliefs contributing to the experience of felt distress are related to the way in which policing as both an identity and an activity is constructed through the police organizational culture. Not only do these constructions influence the ways in which officers perceive themselves and their environments, but they also operate at the collective level to 'normalize' some emotional responses and to 'pathologize' others which, it is argued, could impact upon the outcomes of interventions such as stress counselling.     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Job stress, job strain, and psychological withdrawal among Dutch university staff: towards a dualprocess model for the effects of occupational stress

This study examined the antecedents of job strain (emotional exhaustion, health complaints) and withdrawal behaviour (e.g. lowered organizational commitment) among a cross-sectional sample of 131 academic staff members of the law department of a large Dutch university. Conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) provided the theoretical background for this study. Strains and withdrawal behaviours were expected to be most prominent among those who reported having few resources and/or who reported high job demands. Structural equation modelling revealed that this was indeed the case. As predicted, differential patterns of effects emerged for job demands and job resources. Analysis of the effects of four job-specific stressors revealed that especially the structural aspects of a staff member's teaching task (e.g. the number of students in their classes) contributed strongly to perceived job demands. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed.     

Dermal Uptake of 18 Dilute Aqueous Chemicals: In Vivo Disappearance‐Method Measures Greatly Exceed In Vitro‐Based Predictions

Average rates of total dermal uptake (K_up) from short‐term (e.g., bathing) contact with dilute aqueous organic chemicals (DAOCs) are typically estimated from steady‐state in vitro diffusion‐cell measures of chemical permeability (K_p) through skin into receptor solution. Widely used (“PCR‐vitro”) methods estimate K_up by applying diffusion theory to increase K_p predictions made by a physico‐chemical regression (PCR) model that was fit to a large set of K_p measures. Here, K_up predictions for 18 DAOCs made by three PCR‐vitro models (EPA, NIOSH, and MH) were compared to previous in vivo measures obtained by methods unlikely to underestimate K_up. A new PCR model fit to all 18 measures is accurate to within approximately threefold (r = 0.91, p < 10^?5), but the PCR‐vitro predictions (r > 0.63) all tend to underestimate the K_up measures by mean factors (UF, and p value for testing UF = 1) of 10 (EPA, p < 10^?6), 11 (NIOSH, p < 10^?8), and 6.2 (MH, p = 0.018). For all three PCR‐vitro models, log(UF) correlates negatively with molecular weight (r² = 0.31 to 0.84, p = 0.017 to < 10^?6) but not with log(vapor pressure) as an additional predictor (p > 0.05), so vapor pressure appears not to explain the significant in vivo/PCR‐vitro discrepancy. Until this discrepancy is explained, careful in vivo measures of K_up should be obtained for more chemicals, the expanded in vivo database should be compared to in vitro‐based predictions, and in vivo data should be considered in assessing aqueous dermal exposure and its uncertainty.     

Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

Employees' perceptions of organizational restructuring: the role of social support

Organizational change and restructuring is often perceived as leading to increased occupational stress, impacting negatively on the psychological well-being of employees. This pragmatic study investigates the role of social support and dispositional affect as moderators of role stress post-restructuring for employees in a public utility company. A total of 176 employees, including 37 managers, 60 graded staff and 78 industrial staff completed a self-report questionnaire, approximately 1 year postrestructuring, retrospectively assessing role conflict, ambiguity, overload and positive and negative feedback pre- and post-restructuring. Results suggested that overall role stress increased for managers/ senior officers and graded staff, but not for industrial staff. Social support was linked with lower role stress, more positive feedback and less negative feedback at post-restructuring. For certain role stressors this impact was moderated by dispositional affect, but the effect was not consistent across occupational groups. Positive affect enhanced the effect of manager support in reducing role conflict for graded staff, and the effect of co-worker support in increasing positive feedback and reducing negative feedback for industrial staff. Findings suggest that managers should pay particular attention to support and feedback for employees during periods of chronic occupational stress following organizational restructuring.