The effect of climate on migration: United States, 1995–2000

This paper examines the effect of climate on migration. We examine whether climate is an influential factor in internal migration. We assume that most persons tend to avoid exposure to bitter and cold winters, and excessively hot and humid summers, preferring climates between these extremes. When engaging in-migration decision-making, therefore, to the extent possible, considerations involving climate are believed to be brought into the calculus. There is a very limited demographic literature on the effects of climate on migration.In this paper, we undertake an aggregate-based analysis of the effect of climate on migration. We examine this relationship among the 50 states of the United States. We focus attention on the varying effects of climate on three migration measures for the 1995–2000 time period, namely, in-migration, out-migration, and net migration. We next evaluate the effect of climate on migration in the context of a broad application of human ecology. Here climate, a manifestation of the physical environment, is measured with three major independent variables. The other ecological predictors pertaining to organization, population, technology, and the social environment are used as controls. This enables us to examine the effects of climate on migration in the context of competing ecological hypotheses.     

Parental Family Experiences, the Timing of First Sex, and Contraception

By investigating the intergenerational consequences of multiple aspects of family experiences across the life course this paper advances what we know about the forces shaping children's initiation of sexual and contraceptive behaviors. Our aim is to advance the scientific understanding of early sexual experiences by explicitly considering contraceptive use and by differentiating between the consequences of parental family experiences during childhood and those during adolescence and young adulthood. Thanks to unique, highly detailed data measuring parental family experiences throughout the life course and sexual dynamics early in life it is possible to provide detailed empirical estimates of the relationship between parental family experiences and contraceptive use at first sex-a relationship about which we know relatively little. Findings reveal (1) significant simultaneous consequences of many different dimensions of parental family experiences for the timing of first sex and the likelihood of using contraception at first sex, but the specific dimensions of family important for the specific behavior vary across racial groups; and (2) that parental family experiences influence the timing of sex and contraceptive use differently.     

The expansion of religious affiliation: An explanation of the growth of church participation in the United States 1850–1930

This paper focuses on the period in U.S. history that experienced the most rapid rate of increase of church membership—the decades between 1850 and 1930—in order to explain synchronic and diachronic variation in those rates. Using pooled cross-sectional time series analysis, different predictions are derived and tested from theories of secularization/social control, comparative disadvantage, resource mobilization, and pluralism. The effects of spatial diffusion and the momentum of religious tradition also are estimated. Our conclusion is that religious monopoly—not diversity—fuels religious expansion. This finding is bolstered by the complementary result that ethnic homogeneity is also conducive to religious expansion. Together these results highlight the importance for mobilization of religious and ethnocultural dominance in a particular niche.     

A dynamic macro social indicator model of changes in marriage, family, and population in the United States: 1947–1974

This paper presents an integrated 21-equation model of how marriage, family, and population conditions, as indexed by macro social indicators, affect each other and are affected by other social, demographic, and economic forces. An opportunity structures theoretical paradigm is applied to the specification of dynamic structural equations for determining changes (both trends and cyclical fluctuations) in marriage formation and dissolution, family and household composition, fertility, mortality, population growth, and population distribution. The equations are estimated on annual national data for the United States during the post-World War II years 1947 to 1972, and then they are used to make conditional forecasts of the values of some of the endogenous variables for 1973 and 1974. It is found that the equations fit the observed data well, lack demonstrable autocorrelation of disturbances, and forecast the 1973 and 1974 values usually with less than 2% error. Strategies are sketched for further refining some of the equations, and it is suggested that this model should be integrated into a larger societal model in order to estimate some of the effects of changes in demographic phenomena on other social conditions.     

阶级阶层形成的家庭背景作用

本文运用了美国学者赖特的新马克思主义者阶级分层的操作性架构,并结合中国的国情对该架构模型进行了修改.为了验证该模型的可行性,我们选择了上海、浙江、福建三地进行了调研.调研显示该模型较符合中国的国情,同时我们也发现了家庭背景对人们阶级阶层形成的影响与作用.     

企业竞争力的源泉:基于企业家背景的分析

不同的学派曾分别从企业的外部环境、产业结构、内部要素、企业家等多个角度去探讨企业的可持续成长问题。本项研究将企业能力分解为企业家能力和组织能力,在此基础上试图从企业家背景因素的角度来探讨企业市场竞争力差异性之根源。企业家的背景特征不仅会影响企业家经营能力的发挥、组织能力的培育,还会进一步影响企业的竞争绩效。基于253份有效调查问卷的数据,运用SPSS12.0等统计软件就企业家背景因素与企业竞争力之间的相关性进行了假设检验。数据分析结果发现:企业家的背景因素,如企业家的年龄、受教育程度、企业家的在位时间、所处的职位、努力工作程度等显著地影响到企业家能力的发挥、组织能力的培育,以及企业的市场盈利能力和成长潜力。     

Background characteristics in the U.S. adult population 1952–1973: A survey-metric model

Data from 30 surveys (46,356 cases from 10 Michigan Election Surveys and 20 Gallup polls) are analyzed to study the interrelations of cohort, sex, race, region, and education from 1952 to 1973.A d-system model is developed that pools results from the various surveys into a set of parameters forming a flowgraph model. This technique allows one to see whether the surveys used are consistent and whether the results are consistent with outside sources such as census reports. (Generally speaking, the surveys were found to be consistent and the model showed generally good fit with census and NORC General Social Survey estimates, but significant differences in two or three parameters.) A computer model of the system is used to generate implications and extrapolations.Substantively, the main results were: (1) a definite trend away from sex equality in education, especially for college attendance; (2) very little narrowing in race, region, and religious differences in education, until the most recent cohorts where Northern White Catholics and Southern White Protestants show virtual parity with “Yankees” (Northern White Protestant); and (3) a projection that shows discouragingly little narrowing of intergroup education differences in the general population for the next 5 years.     

中、美、日国家信息政策比较研究

中国在对信息政策的认识上,在信息政策的目标上,在信息管理体制上,在信息政策的内容上,都相对落后于美国和日本.为此,我们要借鉴美、日的成功经验,并结合我国国情,尽快在提高认识的基础上,制定具有中国特色的国家信息政策.     

The growth of survey research in the United States: Government-sponsored surveys, 1984-2004

Although it is widely assumed that survey requests to the general public have grown steadily over time, there are no good studies documenting the trend. This article describes the growth in survey requests from one sector of the industry: the US government. Using the 83-I clearance forms that agencies must file with the Office of Management and Budget in order to collect information from the public, we estimate the changes between 1984 and 2004 in the number of federal government surveys, number of respondents interviewed, average survey lengths, and total survey hours. In addition, we compare the changes in these variables with the changes in a measure of dollars spent on the surveys. The results are discussed in the context of the “over-surveying” explanation for the long-term decline in response rates to surveys.     

中日战争时期的苏联、美国和国共"统一战线"

抗日战争时期发生在中国的重大事件至今仍受到历史学者们的关注.原因有很多,其中之一就是肯定中国战场上的军事行动在整个第二次世界大战当中的重大意义.中国进行的抗日战争是反法西斯同盟与轴心国进行斗争以及太平洋战争的制衡因素.对其形成的原因条件进行研究将帮助我们修正一些在史学界已经形成的关于国际对华政策的观点,以及抗日战争期间中国国内外因素的相互作用和影响的固有认识.通过研究史料我们可以看到,1943-1945年间,抗日民主统一战线成为中国政府坚持抗击日本侵略斗争的保障,因此维持国共统一战线的问题不仅成为苏联外交工作的重点,也居于美国外交活动的首要地位.我们认为,以往的史学研究没有充分揭示这一点.     

Race,deprivation, and immigrant isolation: The spatial demography of air-toxic clusters in the continental United States

This article contributes to environmental inequality outcomes research on the spatial and demographic factors associated with cumulative air-toxic health risks at multiple geographic scales across the United States. It employs a rigorous spatial cluster analysis of census tract-level 2005 estimated lifetime cancer risk (LCR) of ambient air-toxic emissions from stationary (e.g., facility) and mobile (e.g., vehicular) sources to locate spatial clusters of air-toxic LCR risk in the continental United States. It then tests intersectional environmental inequality hypotheses on the predictors of tract presence in air-toxic LCR clusters with tract-level principal component factor measures of economic deprivation by race and immigrant status. Logistic regression analyses show that net of controls, isolated Latino immigrant-economic deprivation is the strongest positive demographic predictor of tract presence in air-toxic LCR clusters, followed by black-economic deprivation and isolated Asian/Pacific Islander immigrant-economic deprivation. Findings suggest scholarly and practical implications for future research, advocacy, and policy.     

The academic attitudes of American teenagers, 1990–2002: Cohort and gender effects on math achievement

Using data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 and the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002, I compare the academic attitudes of high school students from Generation X and the Millennial Generation. I then analyze the effects these attitudes have on mathematics achievement test scores. Compared to the earlier group, students in the later cohort were less likely to indicate academic reasons for attending school and largely perceived their friends as being less engaged academically. Students in both cohorts whose friends held academic values experienced an increase in math scores. The more students in the earlier cohort disagreed that they came to school for academic reasons, the more their math scores decreased; this relationship did not appear for the later cohort. Females in each cohort showed stronger academic attitudes than males; additionally, believing that popularity was important was associated with lower test scores for females, but not males, in the Millennial cohort.     

从甲骨文“姓”、“娶”、“妻”诸字的构形看古代婚姻形态的演进

中国古代的婚姻形态曾经经历了由母系氏族社会的群婚制向父系氏族社会的专偶婚制的过渡,而在其过渡过程中,曾经发生过抢婚习俗.甲骨文"姓"、"娶"、"妻"诸字的构形就像一幅全息图像,透示了其过渡的轨迹.     

美国学派:推进美国经济崛起的国民经济学说

保护主义和内向型工业化道路是美国经济崛起的秘诀,美国学派为之提供了由生产率立国、保护性关税、国内市场、利益和谐与国民银行构成的一整套国民经济学说和政策方针。这是一种有关落后国家特别是发展中大国如何实行经济赶超的经济学说,对德国和日本的崛起也产生了重要影响。在遭遇国际金融危机、美国保护主义抬头和全球化有可能发生重大变化的今天,重新发掘美国学派关于美国经济崛起的经济学逻辑,对于我国启动内需、重新审视外向型发展战略的得失和研究大国崛起的历史经验,具有现实意义。     

Buffering income loss due to unemployment: Family and welfare state influences on income after job loss in the United States and western Germany

This article analyzes how the family and the welfare state influence household income trajectories after job loss in the United States and in western Germany. Drawing on panel data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), I study the income buffering effects of the family and the welfare state in the short an in the long run after job loss. I demonstrate that household income trajectories after job loss in the two countries are similar for couple households. However, men in the United States rely relatively more on family resources to overcome income loss, whereas German men’s incomes are secured mostly by the welfare state. Women’s unemployment in both countries is mainly buffered by their partners’ higher earnings. Because single households have no access to family support, they face much higher losses in the United States than in Germany. I also show that the more generous German welfare state triggers less private self-help in the form of increased labor force participation on the part of women when their partners lose their jobs. Over time, the family has become more important in buffering incomes after job loss in the United States which smoothed men’s and roughened women’s income trajectories in couple households. In Germany, worsening re-employment chances increased income losses in the long run after job loss.     

国家与社会的互动:美国大麻管制政策的源起

20世纪初,美国州与联邦政府介入和参与大麻管制之时,社会反对大麻的一致性已经确立.随着社会的文化机理与道德因素的变迁,公众对待大麻的态度开始发生变化,逐步制造出一种"道德恐慌".大麻逐渐由社会问题的边缘向中心靠拢,问题中心化的结果聚合为社会一致性,这种一致性的确立不仅影响着大麻管制的起源,而且是政策强化与弱化的重要睛雨表.同时国家与社会都存有部分的"自我限制",致使二者之间的互动并不完全同步或对等.但是,可以肯定,国家与社会之间的互动无疑是政策调整的基点,而国家与社会的和谐则成为政策制订与实施的归宿.     

英、美、日等国依法治理大气污染的经验与启示

英国、美国、日本等国作为最早的工业化国家,大气环境经历了＂污染—治理＂全过程。这些国家制定行之有效的法律与相关制度,同时注重立法理念的更新和治理主体的多元化、发挥市场的作用,均取得了良好的社会效果。我国目前治理大气污染可以借鉴这些国家成功经验。     

关键时刻:美国精英眼中的中国、美国与世界

世界转型的深入、中国崛起的效应与美国衰落的焦虑促使中美关系进入关键时刻,其走向考验着两国精英的智慧。与114名美国权威人士的战略对话表明,在如何看待美国、中国、中美关系与世界的未来问题上,美国精英的基本观点是:美国面临严峻的国内外挑战,为维系全球领导地位,美国进行大幅战略调整,以国内稳定发展和亚太主导地位为优先诉求,其战略重心从欧洲大西洋向亚洲太平洋倾斜,并将亚太战略的矛头指向中国,对华战略遏制成分加重。有鉴于此,中国应以长远眼光来审视和处理中美关系,具体包括:清醒认识中美实力差距,坚持和平发展道路;推动战略信任建设,努力消除误解和误判;清晰划定国家利益的底线,坚决维护核心利益,积极扩大共同利益;坚持求同存异原则,妥善处理分歧;注重文化软实力建设,强化对外文化交流机制;积极建立科学完备的中国国家战略体系,加强马克思主义战略理论体系建设。     

The Republicanization of evangelical Protestants in the United States: An examination of the sources of political realignment

Although the association between evangelical Protestant and Republican affiliations is now a fundamental aspect of American politics, this was not the case as recently as the early 1980s. Following work on secular political realignment and the issue evolution model of partisan change, I use four decades of repeated cross-sectional survey data to examine the dynamic correlates of evangelical Protestant and Republican affiliations, and how these factors promote changes in partisanship. Results show that evangelical Protestants have become relatively more likely to attend religious services and to oppose homosexuality, abortion, and welfare spending. Period-specific mediation models show that opposition to abortion, homosexuality, and welfare spending have become more robust predictors of Republican affiliation. By the twenty-first century, differences in Republican affiliation between evangelical Protestants and other religious affiliates are fully mediated by views of homosexuality, abortion, and welfare spending; and differences in Republican affiliation between evangelicals and the religiously unaffiliated are substantially mediated by views of homosexuality, abortion, welfare spending, and military spending. These results further understanding of rapid changes in politico-religious alignments and the increasing importance of moral and cultural issues in American politics, which supports a culture wars depiction of the contemporary political landscape.