可持续发展测度指标:"生态脚印"评述

一、“生态脚印”的阐释“生态脚印”为ＥＦ)的概念和计算方法是由威克内格尔 (Ｗａｃｋｅｒｎａｇｅｌ)和瑞斯 (Ｒｅｅｓ)于 1996年提出的 ,其核心观点是把人类对资源和环境的利用换算成对土地和水域面积的占用 ,反映资源消耗和废物吸收所需要的生产性土地面积。它测算的是一个人、城市、国家为维持生活实际占用的土地面积。“生态脚印”值大的对生态的影响力大 ,“生态脚印”值小的对生态的影响力相对较小。也就是说 ,在不影响人类生存的前提下 ,“生态脚印”值越小越好。“生态脚印”是一个简明的可操作的指标 ,旨在监测向可持续或不可持…     

1997年国际统计会议概览

１９９７年国际统计会议概览１９９７年将有一系列国际统计会议在世界各地举行。请国内学者、统计工作者有选择地参加。２月１３－１８日，在美国华盛顿举行美国科技进步协会的年度会议。联系方式：ＡＡＡＳＭｅｔｉｎｇｓ－ｏｆｉｃｅ，１３３３Ｈｓｔ．，ＮＷ，Ｗａｓｈ...     

2001年中国的国际竞争力:来自LMD和WEF的报告

一、关于ＷＥＦ和ＩＭＤ的国际竞争力报告　　发端于 2 0世纪后期的经济全球化导致了人们对国家经济竞争力的关注。 1 980年 ,位于日内瓦的瑞士世界经济论坛 (ＷｏｒｌｄＥｃｏｎｏｍｉｃＦｏｒｕｍ ,ＷＥＦ)初步创立了一套评价国家和地区经济增长与国际竞争力的理论原则、研究方法、评估体系以及数据指标 ,开始对全球主要国家和地区的经济与国际竞争力进行评价和排序 ,并出版《世界竞争力报告》(ＴｈｅＷｏｒｌｄＣｏｍｐｅｔｉｔｉｖｅｎｅｓｓＲｅｐｏｒｔ)公布研究和分析的结果。 1 989年 ,位于瑞士洛桑的国际管理发展学院 (Ｉｎｔｅｒ…     

统计软件包SPSS8.0在社会经济统计中的应用

ＳＰＳＳ（ＳｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌＰａｃｋａｇｅｆｏｒｔｈｅｓｏｃｉａｌｓｃｉｅｎｃｅ）社会科学统计软件包是世界上著名的统计分析软件之一。它和ＳＡＳ（Ｓｔａ－ｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓＳｙｓｔｅｍ，统计分析系统）及ＢＭＤＰ（Ｂｉｏｍｅｄｉｃａｌｐ...     

浅谈季节调整的方法及其应用

早在５０年代初，西方国家在统计 领域就开展了对季节调整方法的研究和应用。美国人口普查局在５０年代的人口统计中率先研制并应用了季节调整方法Ｘ－１，此种方法经过近几十年的不断实践、完善，逐步发展为Ｘ－１１ ＡＲＩＭＡ和Ｘ－１２ｒｅｇＡＲＩＭＡ，并为西方各大工业国广泛应用。在我国，由于数理统计基础相对薄弱，统计界对季节调整方法应用的系统研究起步较晚。在１９９３年国家统计局组织Ｂｕｓｉｎｅｓｓ ＣｙｃｌｅＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓ＆Ｆｏｒｅｃａｓｔ）—经济周期波动分析软件（ＢＣＡＭ）操作培训时，我国政府系统的统计工…     

国际统计学会诞生经过

国际统计学会诞生经过文／龚鉴尧国际统计学会（ＩｎｔｅｒｎａｔｉｏｎａｌＳｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅ）于１８８５年６月２４日在伦敦成立，至今已有１１０年的历史．它是现存的最古老的国际组织之一，也是目前国际声望较高的学术团体，在联合国经社理事...     

SPSS统计分析研究的有利工具

ＰＳＳ（ｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌｐａｃｋａｇｅｆｏｒｔｈｅｓｏｃｉａｌｓｃｉｅｎｃｅ）———社会科学软件包是世界上著名的统计分析软件之一。它和ＳＡＳ（ＳｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃａｌＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓＳｙｓｔｅｍ,统计分析系统）、ＢＭＤＡ（ＢｉｏｍｅｄｉｃａｌＰｒｏｇｒａｍｓ,生物医学程序）并称为国际上最有影响的三大统计软件。ＳＰＳＳ目前已应用于经济学、生物学、医学以及工、农、林业、商业和金融等各个领域,在社会科学和自然科学各个领域发挥了巨大作用。ＳＰＳＳ有两个窗口,一个是ＳＰＳＳ数据编辑窗口,另一个是ＳＰＳＳ输…     

组合证券投资风险最小化模型研究

组合证券投资风险最小化模型研究①杨桂元马永开唐小我ＡＢＳＴＲＡＣＴ①国家教委优秀年轻教师基金资助项目。ＢａｓｅｄｏｎｇｅｎｅｒａｌＭｉｎｉｍｉｚｅｄＲｉｓｋＭｏｄｅｌｏｆＣｏｍｂｉｎｅｄＳｅｃｕｒｉｔｉｅｓｉｎｖｅｓｔｍｅｎｔ,ｔｈｅａｕｔｈｏｒｓｓ...     

数据挖掘及其对统计学的挑战

一、引言随着科学技术的发展 ,利用数据库技术来存储管理数据 ,利用机器学习的方法来分析数据 ,从而挖掘出大量的隐藏在数据背后的知识 ,这种思想的结合形成了现在深受人们关注的非常热门的研究领域 :数据库中的知识发现———ＫＤＤ(ＫｎｏｗｌｅｄｇｅＤｉｓｃｏｖ ｅｒｙｉｎＤａｔａｂａｓｅｓ) ,其中 ,数据挖掘技术便是ＫＤＤ中的一个最为关键的环节。1995年 ,在加拿大的蒙特利尔召开了第一届“知识发现和数据挖掘”国际学术会议 ,数据挖掘一词被很快流传开来。数据挖掘———ＤＭ(ＤａｔａＭｉｎｉｎｇ)就是从大量的、不完全的、有噪…     

国际准则框架下货币总量测度研究及对中国的启示

货币总量统计在货币政策制定中起着至关重要的作用。国际货币基金组织（简称IMF）于2000年推出了世界上第一个货币与金融统计的国际准则——《货币与金融统计手册》（简称MFS），它无疑是各国编制或公布经济和金融数据的指南。在探讨国际准则MFS货币总量界定及其选择标准的基础上，评价国际准则MFS货币总量测度方法，从中得到启示，以期为中国货币总量的测度提供科学的参考依据。     

福祉测量方法评述

人们生活质量和生活水平的综合表达是＂福祉＂,对＂福祉＂的量化测度方式总体趋势上更加注重综合的多层面的评估,关注生态环境的因素。着重对经济统计方法如人均国民收入、真实储蓄、可持续经济福利指数、真实进步指标等所形成的福祉量化方法以及社会学调查方法如人文发展指数、社会生产函数所形成的福祉量化方法进行了评述。     

Mixed-Poisson Point Process with Partially-Observed Covariates: Ecological Momentary Assessment of Smoking

Ecological Momentary Assessment is an emerging method of data collection in behavioral research that may be used to capture the times of repeated behavioral events on electronic devices, and information on subjects' psychological states through the electronic administration of questionnaires at times selected from a probability-based design as well as the event times. A method for fitting a mixed Poisson point process model is proposed for the impact of partially-observed, time-varying covariates on the timing of repeated behavioral events. A random frailty is included in the point-process intensity to describe variation among subjects in baseline rates of event occurrence. Covariate coefficients are estimated using estimating equations constructed by replacing the integrated intensity in the Poisson score equations with a design-unbiased estimator. An estimator is also proposed for the variance of the random frailties. Our estimators are robust in the sense that no model assumptions are made regarding the distribution of the time-varying covariates or the distribution of the random effects. However, subject effects are estimated under gamma frailties using an approximate hierarchical likelihood. The proposed approach is illustrated using smoking data.     

建立生态安全评价指标体系的几个理论问题

全球环境日趋恶化已是不争的事实。人类未能从生态系统的角度去思考问题 ,其根源在于缺乏关于生态系统如何影响我们以及它们 (生态系统 )所处状态的信息 ,而缺少这些信息 ,在宏观上要制定有效的环境政策是不可能的。而在微观上 ,公众和企业的行为选择和行为调整也会因信息缺损而一事无成。　　一、生态安全的概念及本质关于生态安全的概念 ,学术界并没有一个标准的定义。笔者认为 ,生态安全是指生态系统保持过程连续、结构稳定和功能完整的一种超稳定状态。实现生态安全 ,就是要使生态环境能够有利于经济活动效率的提高 ,有利于人类健康和生…     

区域核心竞争力的资源依托与产业设计——以浐灞生态区为例

区域核心竞争力是国家整体竞争力的动力源。在新一轮西部大开发中,为避免产业同质竞争而引致的低效,在区域发展的主导产业定位上,需要打造具有核心竞争力的产业体系。运用投入产出测度方法,通过对现代服务业效率的比较,探讨适合于浐灞生态区核心竞争力形成的可行模式与经济发展可持续的有效路径。     

Models, assumptions and model checking in ecological regressions

Ecological regression is based on assumptions that are untestable from aggregate data. However, these assumptions seem more questionable in some applications than in others. There has been some research on implicit models of individual data underlying aggregate ecological regression modelling. We discuss ways in which these implicit models can be checked from aggregate data. We also explore the differences in applications of ecological regressions in two examples: estimating the effect of radon on lung cancer in the United States and estimating voting patterns for different ethnic groups in New York City.     

Ecological inference in the social sciences

Ecological inference is a problem of partial identification, and therefore precise conclusions are rarely possible without the collection of individual level (identifying) data. Without such data, sensitivity analyses provide the only recourse. In this paper we review and critique recent approaches to ecological inference in the social sciences, and describe in detail hierarchical models, which allow both sensitivity analysis and the incorporation of individual level data into an ecological analysis. A crucial element of a sensitivity analysis in such models is prior specification, and we detail how this may be carried out. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the inclusion of a small amount of individual level data from a small number of ecological areas can dramatically improve the properties of such estimates.     

An investigation of the impact of various geographical scales for the specification of spatial dependence

Ecological studies are based on characteristics of groups of individuals, which are common in various disciplines including epidemiology. It is of great interest for epidemiologists to study the geographical variation of a disease by accounting for the positive spatial dependence between neighbouring areas. However, the choice of scale of the spatial correlation requires much attention. In view of a lack of studies in this area, this study aims to investigate the impact of differing definitions of geographical scales using a multilevel model. We propose a new approach – the grid-based partitions and compare it with the popular census region approach. Unexplained geographical variation is accounted for via area-specific unstructured random effects and spatially structured random effects specified as an intrinsic conditional autoregressive process. Using grid-based modelling of random effects in contrast to the census region approach, we illustrate conditions where improvements are observed in the estimation of the linear predictor, random effects, parameters, and the identification of the distribution of residual risk and the aggregate risk in a study region. The study has found that grid-based modelling is a valuable approach for spatially sparse data while the statistical local area-based and grid-based approaches perform equally well for spatially dense data.     

Time-varying coefficient cumulative gap time models for intensive longitudinal ecological momentary assessment data with missingness

Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) studies investigate intensive repeated observations of the current behavior and experiences of subjects in real time. In particular, such studies aim to minimize recall bias and maximize ecological validity, thereby strengthening the investigation and inference of microprocesses that influence behavior in real-world contexts by gathering intensive information on the temporal patterning of behavior of study subjects. Throughout this paper, we focus on the data analysis of an EMA study that examined behavior of intermittent smokers (ITS). Specifically, we sought to explore the pattern of clustered smoking behavior of ITS, or smoking ‘bouts’, as well as the covariates that predict such smoking behavior. To do this, in this paper we introduce a framework for characterizing the temporal behavior of ITS via the functions of event gap time to distinguish the smoking bouts. We used the time-varying coefficient models for the cumulative log gap time and to characterize the temporal patterns of smoking behavior, while simultaneously adjusting for behavioral covariates, and incorporated the inverse probability weighting into the models to accommodate missing data. Simulation studies showed that irrespective of whether missing by design or missing at random, the model was able to reliably determine prespecified time-varying functional forms of a given covariate coefficient, provided the the within-subject level was small.     

PPP模式提升了新型城镇化建设的质量吗?

推进以人为核心的新型城镇化建设背景下,能否践行以人为核心是其质量评判的重要标准。创新性地基于产城融合视角,从理论和实证两个方面研究了PPP模式如何通过宏微观层面的产城融合,进而影响新型城镇化建设质量。研究发现:①新型城镇化建设过程中,PPP模式拓宽了资金来源渠道、提升了项目建设效率、强化了政府监督职能、增强了公众参与水平,整体促进了产城融合,有助于实现新型城镇化建设的提质增效。②PPP模式既直接影响新型城镇化建设质量,又通过宏微观层面的产城融合间接影响新型城镇化建设质量。③生态环境保护和优秀文化传承对宏观层面产城融合具有较好的解释力,而公众生活便利性和生活水平改善则较好地解释了微观层面的产城融合。④新型城镇化建设过程中,PPP模式显著增强了宏微观层面的产城融合水平,微观层面的产城融合对新型城镇化建设质量具有显著影响,宏观层面的产城融合不直接对新型城镇化建设质量产生显著影响,而是经由微观层面的产城融合间接地对新型城镇化建设质量产生显著影响。因而,以人为核心的新型城镇化建设过程中,既要充分发挥PPP模式的优点,又要重视宏微观层面产城融合的作用,从多方面提升公众生活质量,进而实现新型城镇化建设的高质量发展。