Effects of societal intergration, period, region, and culture of suicide on male age-specific suicide rates: 20 developed countries, 1955-1989

Multiple indicators of societal integration and proxies for the culture of suicide form the model used to explain variation in male age-specific suicide rates from 1955 to 1989 in 20 developed countries. The hypothesis that certain determinants of suicide rates have changed over the period between 1955 and 1989 was rejected, as was the hypothesis that there are effects of period, net of measured predictors. The determinants of suicide rates do vary by age, with the culture of suicide playing an especially important role in the 35-64 age group.     

Societal integration and age-standardized suicide rates in 21 developed countries, 1955-1989

Gender-specific age-standardized suicide rates for 21 developed countries over seven 5-year periods (1955-59...1985-89) form the two dependent variables. Durkheim's theory of societal integration is the framework used to generate the independent variables, although several recent theories are also examined. The results from a MGLS multiple regression analysis of both male and female rates provide overwhelming support for a multidimensional theory of societal integration and suicide, as first suggested by Durkheim.     

Explaining Life Chances in China's Economic Transformation: A Life Course Approach

In this study, we develop a life course argument to link institutional change and individuals' life chances. We argue that timing (in terms of a particular cohort's stage in the life course) plays a critical role in moderating potential impacts of large-scale social changes on individual life chances because (1) life stage induces distinctive cohort responses to opportunities and risks in socioeconomic transformations, and (2) life stage (and, hence, cohort) is also closely correlated with one's position in the existing social structure. We situate our study in the context of the recent socioeconomic changes in the People's Republic of China, 1980–1994. We test our theoretical arguments and hypotheses in an empirical study of career pathways, using a national sample of urban workers drawn from 20 Chinese cities. Our findings show distinctive cohort variations in (1) patterns of job shifts, indicating cohort-based responses to opportunities and risks, and (2) the determinants of economic resources (personal income), reflecting variations in allocative mechanisms in shaping career pathways across cohorts.     

Intergenerational transmission of sex-specific differential treatments: The allocation of education resources among siblings

Using a unique data set of 3-generation education information, in this article we extend the analysis of Greenhalgh [Greenhalgh, Susan, 1985. Sexual Stratification: The other side of ‘growth with equity’ in East Asia. Population and Development Review 11, 265–314] and study the question of intergenerational transmission of sex-specific differential treatments. The rich data are obtained from Taiwan’s Panel Study of Family Dynamics project. As far as the macro pattern is concerned, we found that although there is a clear tendency of differential treatment against females in the old generation, this tendency is significantly weakened and nearly vanishes in the young generation. Furthermore, the supporting effect of senior siblings in the old generation becomes a crowding (resource-dilution) effect in the young generation. However, within each micro lineage, there is a mild “habitus” effect in the sense that parents who experienced gender-specific differential treatment tend to treat their children in a similar fashion. We find that parents’ education contributes to the elimination of sex-based differential treatment, consistent with the finding in Thronton et al. [Thornton, Arland, Alwin, Duane F. and Camburn, Donald, 1983. Causes and consequences of sex-role attitudes and attitude change. American Sociological Review 48, 211–227].     

中国制成品出口的技术结构变迁——基于动态化分类方法的考察

本文使用1985-2006年53个国家人均GDP数据和制成品出口数据,运用动态化分类方法,考察了中国制成品出口的技术结构变迁。本文发现:(1)在过去二十多年中,同其他经济体一样,中国制成品出口的技术结构仍然主要遵循比较优势原则发生变迁;(2)尽管中国制成品出口的技术结构已得到大幅度提升,但是中国目前依然没有摆脱以低技术制成品出口为主导的局面。基于世界制成品出口技术结构的演进规律,本文预计,在未来一段时期内,中国低技术制成品的出口份额将继续下降,中偏下技术制成品的出口份额不会大幅上升,甚至有可能开始小幅回落,中等、中偏上技术制成品的出口份额会表现不俗,高技术制成品的出口份额也会有所提升,但大幅提升的可能性很小。当然,出口技术结构升级的道路并不平坦,依然充满着挑战。     

A global risk assessment model for civil wars

In this study, we construct a multivariate model that assesses the risk of an outbreak of civil war in a country over a period of 5 years into the future. In addition to structural factors of state weakness, which have dominated the literature on civil war onset, this model includes repression of basic human rights to personal integrity – an important harbinger of wars to come – as an aspect of state behavior. Our aim is not to explore the causal factors of civil war onset, but to build a model that includes indicators that correlate with civil war outbreak and may be used to predict it. Based on two versions of the model – logit and neural network – out-of-sample risk assessments for three different time periods are generated and compared to the historical record of civil war outbreak during those years. In addition, the model’s ability to produce in-sample risk assessments over a 5-year period is tested. Finally, we compute truly predictive civil war risk assessments for all countries for which data are available, for the years 2008–2012. The analyses show that with a relatively simple model and based on publicly available data sources, meaningful civil war risk assessments can be computed. The quality of the predictions exceeds that of prominent studies, in which the risk of interstate war is assessed.     

Wealth Accumulation across the Adult Life Course: Stability and Change in Sociodemographic Covariate Structures of Net Worth Data in the Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1984–1991

This paper reports microlevel Tobit regression analyses of sociodemographic covariates of the life course accumulation of total household net worth data in eight waves of five distinct panels—spanning over 6 years from late 1984 through early 1991—of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). It is found that the quadratic age–wealth relationship predicted by Modigliani's Life Cycle Hypothesis is evident in aggregate age–median wealth profiles as well as in the micro data for households with positive net worth. However, when adult status attainment variables are entered into the regression models either by themselves or in combination with marital/family status variables, the age of household head at which net worth begins to decline is far beyond the typical retirement age. In addition, the traditional criterion variables of sociological status attainment theory—educational attainment, occupational status, and earnings—are found to be positively associated with household net worth, although the net effect of occupational status generally is not statistically significant and the earnings effect is nonlinear. Further, consistent with status attainment theory, householder minority status (black, Hispanic) is negatively associated with the accumulation of net worth. It is found that both single male and single female householder status are negatively associated with the accumulation of household net worth (relative to married couple households) as is the size of the household (measured by the number of children under age 18 present). Separate logistic regression analyses show that households with zero and negative net worth are more likely than households with positive net worth to be black and have low earnings. Higher levels of educational and occupational status attainment reduce the probability of zero net worth but not the probability of negative net worth. Male- and female-headed households and households headed by Hispanics also are more likely to have zero net worth, but not negative net worth. The estimated sociodemographic covariate structures of household net worth are found to exhibit substantial stability across both waves and panels in the SIPP—although effects of the 1990–1991 recession are detectable in estimates for the 1990 panel. Possible applications of the estimated models in demographic projections of household net worth are suggested.     

Are there sex differences in the utilization of educational capital among college-educated workers?

This paper introduces the concept of educational utilization as an overlooked part of the education-to-work transition and a potential mechanism by which occupational sex segregation is generated among the college-educated labor force. The paper begins with a critical discussion of the operationalization approaches that have been used in prior research that implicitly measures educational utilization. Multiple empirical measure of the concept are then developed using data from the O*NET and the National Surveys of College Graduates. The explanatory power of each measure is assessed using conditional logit models of occupational attainment. A combined measure is then used to assess sex differences in educational utilization using data from the 1993 and 2003 National Surveys of College Graduates for 2 cohorts of college graduates—those who earned their baccalaureate or post-baccalaureate degrees and entered the labor market in the years 1985–1993 and 1995–2003. The analysis identifies sex differences in educational utilization that vary across field, degree level and cohort and concludes with an examination of the implications of sex differences in educational utilization for occupational segregation.     

Employment among married female college graduates

This paper investigates the effect of attitudinal factors on the employment of white married female college graduates with and without children. A model of the employment status of these women 3 and 7 years after graduation is estimated using data from the NORC longitudinal study of 1961 college graduates. Taste for housework was found to affect the employment of nonmothers only, whereas “child care ideology” affected the employment of mothers. Husband's income had a negative effect on the wife's working both in 1964 and in 1968. Age of youngest child in 1964 had a positive, and number of children a negative, impact on a mother's working in 1964. The negative effect on employment status in 1968 of the birth of a child between 1964 and 1968 was much greater for those women for whom it was a first birth than for those who already had children.     

论中日两国传统蒙学读物的差异

蒙学读物是传统文化的重要载体。中国的启蒙教育开展得很早,蒙学读物历史悠久。日本自平安时代后期开始也出现了本土的蒙学读物。由于它们是在不断引进和借鉴中国蒙学读物的过程中发展的,所以中日两国的传统蒙学读物具有一定的相似点。但是,由于两国的社会结构、民族传统等都有所不同,它们又体现出极大的差异,这些都反映出中日两国在近代之前教育文化的不同发展特点。     

Going most of the way: “Technical virginity” among American adolescents

Reports from academic and media sources assert that many young people substitute non-vaginal sexual activities for vaginal intercourse in order to maintain what could be called “technical virginity.” Explanations for technical virginity, however, are based on weak empirical evidence and considerable speculation. Using a sample of 15–19-year-olds from Cycle 6 of the National Survey of Family Growth, we examine technical virginity and its motivations. The results suggest that religious adolescents are less likely than less-religious ones to opt for non-vaginal sex over total abstinence. Abstinence pledgers who are virgins are neither more nor less likely than nonpledgers who are virgins to substitute non-vaginal sex for intercourse. Moreover, religion and morality are actually the weakest motivators of sexual substitution among adolescents who have not had vaginal sex. Preserving technical virginity is instead more common among virgins who are driven by a desire to avoid potential life-altering consequences, like pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases.     

股份回购法律制度探析

股份回购是国外成熟资本市场上一种常见的资本运作方式,但在我国还仅仅属于一种金融创新行为。股份回购对调整我国上市公司的股权结构,推行员工持股计划,保护少数异议股东和推动上市公司实质重组具有极强的现实针对性。在股份回购时,中小股东和债权人的利益最易受到侵害。因此,在进行股份回购立法中,应坚持股东实质平等和保护债权人利益两项原则。此外,在如何完善股份回购制度方面,提出了放宽回购事由、限制回购数量、限制回购财源等六项立法建议。     

历史尽头的自觉——新世纪中国长篇小说的艺术流变

新世纪十多年来的长篇小说在艺术上发生了一些变化,由此形成了新的艺术特质。当我们始终站在20世纪文学发展源流的语境中来考察新世纪长篇小说,尤其是与上世纪八九十年代的长篇小说加以比较,才能看出新世纪长篇小说更为独特的艺术追求和面临的严峻考验。同时,汉语白话文学经历了百年的变革与发展,今天它在艺术上正在趋向于成熟。然而,也正是在现代以来的百年历史变革中,今天的文学走到了最后的路途,所有的艺术成就、成熟和新的突破,都是在历史的尽头,也是文学的尽头作出的坚韧努力。     

Latent structures of vertical control in intergovernmental relations

Much of the work on interorganizational (IO) relations focuses on intracommunity bases of resource exchange, or what a number of writers have referred to as the “horizontal axes” of community organization and resource control. Building on earlier work in the field, the present paper extends this conceptual framework to include “vertical” dimensions of resource control as they pertain to the work relations of governmental units at the local and extralocal level. In this context, vertical control is viewed as a power-dependence relation between county-based public service agencies and their “parent” units at the state and federal level. Variations in these control relations are used to identify alaternate structures of vertical control within a set of public service programs spanning several units of government. The analysis reveals three basic types of vertical control structure each of which is shown to foster a distinct pattern of exchange relations among these units.     

“写真实”在20世纪中国小说中的历史命运

"写真实"在20世纪中国小说中经历了曲折道路,其经验,其教训,都值得当今小说家和后代小说家们所借鉴.     

Global biodiversity decline of marine and freshwater fish: A cross-national analysis of economic, demographic, and ecological influences

We test competing hypotheses from political–economic and neo-liberal theories about the effects of economic growth and urbanization on a neglected, but important, indicator of environmental health: aquatic biodiversity. We analyze cross-national data on the number of threatened fish species within national territorial waters using negative binomial regression. We find that, counter to the expectations of neo-liberal theories, economic growth increases the likelihood of fish species becoming threatened within nations. Urbanization, however, appears to have no additional effect. The “environmental Kuznets curve” does not hold for aquatic biodiversity, suggesting that further economic growth in nations is likely to escalate the biodiversity crisis.     

新合作主义能否整合中国的劳资关系?——以上海市的实践为例

20世纪欧美国家的实践证明,新合作主义体制是工业化国家处理劳资关系的一条共同经验。随着中国经济由传统形态向工业化、市场化和现代化的快速转型,借鉴新合作主义经验,建立新合作主义的劳资关系体制十分必要。上海是中国工业化发展的先锋,具备一定的基础,可以通过工会组织创新、集体协商谈判、签订集体合同等方式,建立新合作主义体制,形成平衡的劳资关系。     

A stochastic model of organizational mortality: Review and reanalysis

An effort is made to integrate the research literatures of business policy and organizational sociology as they concern organizational mortality. The previous empirical studies of organizational mortality are reviewed and considered in light of current theoretical arguments. Three stochastic models are developed to test hypotheses concerning organizational mortality: the constant rate model, the Gompertz model, and Makeham's Law. The parameters of these models are estimated for 52 sets of data on organizational mortality. The findings show that Makeham's Law is the best-fitting model, although its estimation requires data with low levels of censoring. Substantively, the findings show strong support for Stinchombe's liability-of-newness hypothesis [A. L. Stinchcombe (1965), “Organizations and social structure,” in Handbook of Organizations (J. G. March, Ed.), pp. 153–193, Rand McNally, Chicago].     

20世纪中国小说与现代西方小说的社会学比较研究

由于中国小说和西方小说在形成过程中所存在的差异以及这种差异在后来所产生的不同的影响,同时也由于中国社会和西方社会所具有的不同文化内涵、民族个性、心理特征、审美追求和价值取向等等,这使得20世纪的中国小说和西方现代小说在社会学的内容表现方面出现了许多重大的差异,由此人们可以看到20世纪中国小说和现代西方小说所呈现的不同创作特征和发展风貌。     

Durkheim and pierce on suicide and economic change

This paper is an attempt to build upon Pierce's important finding, a confirmation of Durkheim, that any form of economic disruption or change increases suicide. In this paper, certain aspects of Pierce's method are criticized. The analysis of an expanded and updated data set, using analytic techniques designed for time-series data, suggests that economic disruption per se is not as relevant to the suicide rate as are economic hardship and economic deterioration or improvement.