中小企业掘金奥运商机

许多人认为，奥运营销是巨额金钱堆积的游戏。然而，北京奥运并非只是联想、海尔、三星、可口可乐等大企业的商机，对于资金和资源有限的中小企业采说，同样有机会在奥运营销中取得丰收的硕果。正如北京奥组委高级顾问魏纪中所说：“奥运会产生一些特殊的需求，但这些特殊需求不一定非要企业成为奥运市场开发计划里面的成员才能享受，关键看你是不是能看得到，抓得到。”     

非奥运赞助商：“擦”并快乐着

奥运会就像一个魔方，它给消费者造成的感觉是：能够成为奥运赞助商的企业都是“很厉害”的，这些企业的产品和服务自然也是可以信赖的。借助奥运会这个四年一次的体育盛事，可以在短时间内极大地提高知名度和美誉度，因而企业为了能在这个有限的平台上占有一席之地而绞尽脑汁。花费巨资成为奥运赞助商的自然可以名正言顺页顶着奥运会的光环进行营销，没有拿到奥运赞助入场券的企业也要千方百计沾上奥运的光，采取各种“擦边球”的营销手法，使消费者误以为自己就是奥运赞助商．从而达到不花钱也能取得与奥运赞助商差不多的营销效果的目的。     

“奥运经济”的理性预期

中国申奥成功，举国欢庆。国内众多人士几乎都认为２００８年奥运会会给中国带来巨大的经济收益。比如，北京奥运组委会的财政预算是收支相抵后结余 １６００万美元。还有人按最终投资估算奥运将每年拉动中国经济增长０．３％－０．４％，同时，会给各行业带来无限商机，为社会增加大量就业岗位等等，奥运将成为几年内或更长时间里促动我国经济发展明显和潜在的一个因素。这样的结果是我们所期望的。可事实会如我们所愿吗？或者说，我们应该对可能发生的情况作一下理性预期。 在西方经济学里有一个重要的流派叫理性预期学派。认为预期是人们…     

奥运舞台，媒体盛筵——2008奥运与媒介高峰论坛对话奥运与媒介新生态

（2008年7月9日，北京）在距08年北京奥运会还有近一个月时，“媒体的奥运会”已经进入了最后的冲刺。7月9日，“2008奥运与媒介高峰论坛”在京召开，对奥运时代和后奥运时代的传媒行业新的发展趋势进行了高峰对话。论坛由CSM媒介研究主办，国家广电总局领导，媒体机构、奥运赞助商、4A广告公司的高层管理人员，以及媒介研究机构、业界权威专家共同参与了本次论坛。     

四川传媒在奥运传播中的价值

从2001年7月13日起,第29届夏季奥运会就跟中国人产生了不可分割的联系,北京赢得2008年奥运会的主办权以后,奥运会的各项筹备工作正在按计划稳步推进,北京人、乃至所有中国人逐渐感觉到自己就是奥运会的主人。但是,普通人的奥运意识是比较肤浅的,他们对奥林匹克运动、奥林匹克文化的认知更是很模糊的,如何有效推进中国人、尤其是四川人的奥运意识,使他们对奥林匹克文化有更深刻的认识,是四川大众传媒不可回避的历史使命。四川传媒对奥运竞赛信息的传播电视与报纸在体育报道领域的激烈竞争,直接促进了体育竞赛报道水准的迅速提升,关于奥运会竞…     

奥运经济与绿色营销

现代奥运会既是人类体育盛会，也越来越成为含金量极高的市场蛋糕，对东道国经济和消费的拉动作用毋庸置疑。这也就是人们所称的“奥运经济”：2008年，奥运会将在北京举行，一时间，人们大谈特谈“奥运商机无限”，为各行业的发展出谋划策。     

李宁的奥运营销策略探究

奥运会是一个全球关注的体育盛宴，它不仅仅是运动员的竞技场同时也成为全球众多企业竞争赞助权的博弈场。奥运会作为营销平台的最大价值在于可以聚焦足够的消费者注意力，为赞助伙伴提供向世界展示产品、技术、服务和企业文化的大舞台，以提升品牌的知名度与美誉度，奥运营销战略在国际市场上已成为众多企业品牌国际化的重要选择。     

西部城市的奥运之梦

西部城市的奥运之梦由来已久。早在2010年，便有四川学者在论述中国再次举办奥运会的必要性与可行性的时候，提出了让西部城市代表国家申办奥运会的构想。其中，西部城市表现出来的对奥运盛会的渴望丝毫不亚于东部发达地区。     

观点传真

奥运会后北京房价将保持平稳 北京奥运经济研究会执行会长陈剑说，奥运会后北京的经济不会产生波动。他认为诸多因素决定房价在经过一段调整后，继续向前迈进。他说，奥运会筹办使北京房地产市场价值得到提升。奥运会后，城市基础设施水平进一步提高、土地资源的稀缺性、北京作为国际化大都市所具有的吸引力等诸多因素，让他认为奥运会后北京房价下降空间有限。他表示，在筹办奥运会7年间，北京净增常住人口200多万，而且奥运会推动了北京城市基础设施建设，比如轨道交通经过的地区，房价有所上扬，因此奥运会对房价有推动作用。     

奥运赛后的遗憾

【正】伦敦奥运会上,留下了太多的精彩,也留下了太多的遗憾。金牌银牌的巨大差别已经是不争的事实。从中国女举的"周俊事件",到吴景彪因亚军而"公开道歉事件";从杭州要为奥运会冠军树雕像,到那些被遗忘的亚军、季军们……"金牌至上"观念,已成为比赛背后各种利益的惯性而不可阻挡。然而,金牌之上,还有更重要、更可贵的东西……     

Counting certain binary strings

Consider a sequence of exchangeable or independent binary (i.e. zero-one) random variables. Numbers of strings with a fixed number of ones between two subsequent zeros are studied under an overlapping enumeration scheme. The respective waiting times are examined as well. Exact probability functions are obtained by means of combinatorial analysis and via recursive schemes in the case of an exchangeable and of an independent sequence, respectively. Explicit formulae for the mean values and variances of the number of strings are provided for both types of the sequences. For a Bernoulli sequence the asymptotic normality of the numbers of strings is established too. Indicative exchangeable and independent sequences, combined with numerical examples, clarify further the theoretical results.     

A Statistical Analysis of Probabilistic Counting Algorithms

Abstract. This article considers the problem of cardinality estimation in data stream applications. We present a statistical analysis of probabilistic counting algorithms, focusing on two techniques that use pseudo‐random variates to form low‐dimensional data sketches. We apply conventional statistical methods to compare probabilistic algorithms based on storing either selected order statistics, or random projections. We derive estimators of the cardinality in both cases, and show that the maximal‐term estimator is recursively computable and has exponentially decreasing error bounds. Furthermore, we show that the estimators have comparable asymptotic efficiency, and explain this result by demonstrating an unexpected connection between the two approaches.     

A Note on a Path Counting Formula

ABSTRACT

A path counting formula pivotal in the development of certain ladder determinantal ideals is revisited and recast in a probabilistic framework. Results from large-sample distribution theory are exploited to provide an approximate enumeration formula. The results in this note reside on the interface of statistics and combinatorics and hopefully stimulate further research in this direction.     

Limit Theorems for the Counting Process of Near-Records

Near-records of a sequence, as defined in Balakrishnan et al. (2005 Balakrishnan , N. , Pakes , A. G. , Stepanov , A. ( 2005 ). On the number and sum of near-record observations . Advances in Applied Probability 37 : 765 – 780 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), are observations lying within a fixed distance of the current record. In this article we study the asymptotic behavior of the number of near-records, among the first n observations in a sequence of independent, identically distributed and absolutely continuous random variables. We give conditions for the finiteness of the total number of near-records as well as laws of large numbers for their counting process. For distributions with a finite number of near-records, we carry out a simulation study suggesting that the total number of near-records has a geometric distribution.     

Truncated Sequential Change-point Detection based on Renewal Counting Processes

The typical approach in change-point theory is to perform the statistical analysis based on a sample of fixed size. Alternatively, one observes some random phenomenon sequentially and takes action as soon as one observes some statistically significant deviation from the "normal" behaviour. Based on the, perhaps, more realistic situation that the process can only be partially observed, we consider the counting process related to the original process observed at equidistant time points, after which action is taken or not depending on the number of observations between those time points. In order for the procedure to stop also when everything is in order, we introduce a fixed time horizon n at which we stop declaring "no change" if the observed data did not suggest any action until then. We propose some stopping rules and consider their asymptotics under the null hypothesis as well as under alternatives. The main basis for the proofs are strong invariance principles for renewal processes and extreme value asymptotics for Gaussian processes.     

Counting by weighing: construction of two-sided confidence intervals

Counting by weighing is widely used in industry and often more efficient than counting manually which is time consuming and prone to human errors especially when the number of items is large. Lower confidence bounds on the numbers of items in infinitely many future bags based on the weights of the bags have been proposed recently in Liu et al. [Counting by weighing: Know your numbers with confidence, J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. C 65(4) (2016), pp. 641–648]. These confidence bounds are constructed using the data from one calibration experiment and for different parameters (or numbers), but have the frequency interpretation similar to a usual confidence set for one parameter only. In this paper, the more challenging problem of constructing two-sided confidence intervals is studied. A simulation-based method for computing the critical constant is proposed. This method is proven to give the required critical constant when the number of simulations goes to infinity, and shown to be easily implemented on an ordinary computer to compute the critical constant accurately and quickly. The methodology is illustrated with a real data example.     

Counting strings at height j in Dyck paths

Let τ be an arbitrary lattice path, called in this context string, consisting of two kinds of steps (rises and falls) and let j be a non-negative integer.In this paper, the explicit formula for the generating function F_j associated with the Dyck path statistic “number of occurrences of τ at height j” is evaluated.For the expression of F_j some basic characteristics of the string are used, namely its number of rises, height, depth and periodicity, as well as the generating function of the Catalan numbers.     

Test of Homogeneity for Some Population Models Based on Counting Processes

This work deals with hypothesis testing for some population models based on counting processes. An asymptotic hypothesis testing to find out certain homogeneity conditions about the parameters of these models is carried out. Some local alternatives are considered and these results are applied to prove homogeneity of the resistance level of susceptible individuals in a population which is subdivided into sub populations and is being attacked by an infectious disease.