Reporting "The Polls" in 2004

Media reports of polls indicate how well public opinion pollshave been integrated into campaign coverage. This article examineshow polls were used in 2004. Although there were relativelylimited methodological changes in how polls were conducted in2004, there were changes in how the polls were treated in themedia. Americans in 2004 were subjected to intense debates aboutpolls and to as much reporting about "the polls" as there wasof the polls themselves. The discussion of "the polls" in 2004included claims of electability during the Democratic nominatingprocess, increased reporting about methodological issues, andheightened political criticisms of "the polls." The articleconcludes with a discussion of the current state and the futureof news polling.     

Pollsters, the Press, and Political Polling in Britain

This article reviews the history of political polls in Britainsince 1945, when the first such poll was conducted, and examinescurrent topical issues, including the relationship between themedia and the polls.     

THE FIRST STRAW? A STUDY OF THE ORIGINS OF ELECTION POLLS

Proto-straw polls appeared in the presidential election of 1824.These precursors to modern election polls originated out ofa combination of short-term political changes associated withthe end of the first American party system in general and thedemise of the congressional caucus system of nomination in particularand long-term developments associated with growing democratization,centralization, and quantification.     

THE SHORT-TERM EFFECT OF ELECTION POLLS ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES: THE 1988 CANCDIAN FEDERAL ELECTION

Polls do not simply measure public opinion; they also providevital information that the public can use to form opinions andto make decisions. Using multiple regression analysis, the authorsfound that published polls had a powerful impact on the valueof the Canadian dollar during the 1988 Canadian federal election.This appears to have been due to the unprecedented importanceof economic issues in the federal campaign, the distinctivepositions taken by the major political parties with respectto the U.S.-Canadian Free Trade Agreement, and to the proliferationof "horse-race" polls in the media. These results have implicationsfor understanding the behavior of other elite groups, such asfinancial contributors and volunteer campaign workers, who mayalso use published horse-race polls to handicap election outcomes.     

A User's View of the Polls

The treatment of polls and surveys by the New York Times haschanged from casual to extensive use, both in its internal decision-makingand its political and social reporting, with many obvious benefits.But some implications of poll proliferation, especially theirdistorting effects on the political process, raise troublingthoughts.     

An Elite View of the Polls

This research note examines the views of election polls of asample of political activists: delegates elected to the 1980state conventions of the Oklahoma Democratic and Republicanparties. Findings show that although just l3 percent of thedelegates overall place high levels of trust in the resultsof major national polls, nearly a majority (45 percent) feelthat poll results affect voter behavior. Both trust in electionpolls and perception of their impact on voters are found toincrease with involvement or interest in electoral politics.     

Toward an Open-Source Methodology: What We Can Learn from the Blogosphere

During the 2004 election campaign, millions of political enthusiastsdownloaded poll data on the Internet, while "Weblogs" provideda new forum for commentary on survey methodology. At the sametime, traditional public opinion surveys came under pressurefrom declining cooperation, contact, and coverage rates, andmany automated and Internet surveys began to proliferate. Thisarticle provides some examples of "blog" commentary on automatedand Internet polls and then explores the lessons to be learnedfrom the spirit of innovation and openness of the Internet inevaluating new survey methods such as automated polls and thoseconducted over the Internet.     

POLLING ON THE ISSUES PUBLIC OPINION AND THE NUCLEAR FREEZE

Throughout the first term of the Reagan administration, thenuclear freeze movement headlined the news and scored numerouspolitical victories. Hundreds of state and local governments,as well as the U.S. House of Representatives, passed resolutionsin support of the freeze. Public opinion polls played a majorrole in the debate, as the media and freeze advocates citednumerous polls indicating overwhelming public support for theinitiative. Yet a comprehensive and detailed examination ofnational polls reveals that public support for the freeze cameheavily qualified. While Americans expressed strong supportfor the basic concept of a freeze, they expressed doubts aboutthe possibility of a verifiable and balanced freeze agreement.Furthermore, the public doubted that the Soviet Union genuinelydesired such an agreement. Most surprisingly, the public didnot pay much attention to the debate. Few Americans claimedto know or care much about the freeze initiative, and fewerstill felt positively toward the political activists behindthe freeze.     

North Americans' Attitudes Toward Illegal Drugs

Public opinion polls conducted from 1969 to 2003 found a variety of opinions on the use, possession, and legalization of marijuana. Public opinion about legalizing marijuana use is increasing, but it is also increasing toward harsher penalties for those who possess a small amount of marijuana. Public opinion regarding the legalization of illegal drugs appears to be influenced by the times. The majority of Americans increasingly believe that the country has made some progress in dealing with the problems of illegal drugs, but Americans are also reporting more difficulty within their families related to marijuana. This article examines trends based in public opinion polls on the use of marijuana in the United States and Canada and discusses the social and political history of marijuana and the biophysical effects, medical uses, definitions, and previous research related to marijuana.     

Political Marriages:

The married lives of political leaders, women in particular, have recently gained the attention of the U.S. public. To date, research has not directly examined the perceptions and attitudes of political couples, especially when the wife is the politician. This research toward sex roles as reported by political women and their spouses. Participants consisted of women political candidates running for state level office in two New England states as well as a sample of husbands. Results revealed differential perceptions between political women and husbands on the two major variables. Significant differences were also found for husbands of elected and unelected women. The classification of participants into subgroups reflecting election outcome is not to imply that the variables examined in this research determine success or lack thereof at the polls, or within the marital relationship.     

Political Polling and the New Media Culture: A Case of More Being Less

Changes in journalism—including newsroom cutbacks, anemphasis on repackaging secondhand material, and the demandsof 24-hour news—have expanded the reliance on polls asnews, including polls of a sort once considered not reliablefor publication, and led to a more superficial understandingof the 2004 presidential race. The proliferation of outletsoffering news, which has resulted in greater competition foraudience, has also intensified the motivation of using pollsin part for their marketing value rather than purely their probativejournalistic value. The more "synthetic" style of contemporaryjournalism has increased the tendency to allow polls to createa context for journalists to explain and organize other news—becomingthe lens through which reporters see and order a more interpretativenews environment. A greater dependence on horse race trackingpolls by the media has reinforced these tendencies and furtherthinned the public’s understanding toward who won andaway from why. Growing audience skepticism and political polarizationhave created an environment of distrust about the methodologyand integrity of polling. All of these factors, in turn, arefrustrating the efforts of academic and commercial pollstersto maintain standards and deepen understanding among journalistsabout public opinion research and how to use it as journalism.     

Conformity to AAPOR Standards in Newspaper Reporting of Public Opinion Polls

This study examines three newspapers' level of conformity toAAPOR standards of minimal disclosure in their reporting ofpublic opinion polls. Analysis of 116 polls published in theperiod of 1972–79 indicates a dramatic increase in thenumber of polls reported, but not in the level of conformityto AAPOR standards. Conformity is higher when the polls concernelections rather than nonelection topics, and when newspapersthemselves, rather than external sources, are the sources ofthe polls.     

Lyndon Johnson and the Public Polls

This article examines the relationship between President LyndonJohnson and those who take published polls. As his poll ratingsdeclined, Johnson used a number of methods to convince thosewith influence that he was more popular than the polls indicated.These methods included direct and indirect attacks on the polls,leaks of private polls, attempts to influence the results, andcourting the pollsters. The article argues that the last ofthese poses a danger to the objectivity of the pollsters. Secretlygiving advice to and taking private polls for a president areincompatible with the role of objective measurer of public opinion.     

Pre-election polling and third party candidates

I analyze voters’ incentives in responding to pre-election polls with a third party candidate. Third party supporters normally have an incentive to vote strategically in the election by voting for one of the major candidates. But these voters would vote third party if the third party candidate is doing surprisingly well in the polls. Because voters are more likely to vote third party if the third party candidate is doing well in polls, voters who like the third party candidate best have an incentive to claim they will vote third party in the polls so that more voters will ultimately vote third party in the election. The differing incentives faced during polls and elections accounts for why third party candidates do better in polls than in elections.     

Immigration and Immigrants

Abstract

Public opinion polls conducted from 1964 to 1999 found that Americans' desire to reduce immigration increased dramatically, but there existed a wide variation regarding which nationalities were to be restricted. Furthermore, the majority believed that many immigrants wind up on welfare and raise taxes for Americans and, hence, cause problems for the United States. This article reports on these findings and their implications for current political attitudes toward immigration and recent change and proposed changes inimmigration laws and programs.     

Pollsters Under Attack: 2004 Election Incivility and Its Consequences

The 2004 election was remarkable for a number of reasons, includingthe harsh, personal attacks from all parts of the politicalspectrum on a number of media pollsters. The idea of "killingthe messenger" has been around long enough for the phenomenonto have its own name, but it appears to have intensified muchmore than in the past. The article details the experiences oftwo polls and their pollsters, one national and one statewide.These attacks are part of a growing practice of trying to mitigateperceived damage by any message in the political marketplace.The article suggests that while there are positive effects fromthese developments, including heightened awareness among votersof polling methods, negative effects can damage the credibilityof specific polls and their sponsors, as well as the professionin general, including market and other public opinion research.The article ends with a call for researchers to be more openwith their methods and measures, and to strongly defend properlydone research against critics; for journalists to be more discerningin evaluating poll criticisms before publishing them; and forprofessional organizations to help the public better understandpolling, market research, and other public opinion researchand their benefits to society.     

The Poll as a News Event in the 1980 Presidential Campaign

Public opinion polls made up 15 percent of the news events coveredduring the 1980 presidential election campaign, but news storiesgenerated by polls were no more likely to receive better playin the 50 newspapers studied than other stories about the campaign.Horserace polls were popular with editors during the last twoweeks of the campaign.     

Do Exit Polls Influence Voting Behavior?

This article summarizes the findings of the effect of exit pollson voting behavior. Both macro and micro methods have been used,and no methods are perfect. Exit polls appear to cause smalldeclines in total voting in areas where the polls close latefor those elections where the exit polls predict a clear winnerwhen previously the race had been considered close.     

Evaluating Polls with Poll Data

The Roper Organization conducted two surveys in 1985 on thepublic's attitudes toward polls. One was a 10-question interviewand the other was a single question asking for reactions toletters both critical and laudatory of polls. Results of thetwo surveys, which were asked of national samples of adults,indicate that although there is skepticism among the publicabout polls, few people are entirely negative. However, therise in the last 10 years in the percentage of those who arecritical of polls suggests that there is cause for concern.The author makes suggestions for improving polling from therespondent's point of view.     

Testing the Permanence of the Permanent Campaign: An Analysis of Presidential Polling Expenditures, 1977 2002

Many presidential observers argue that the modern White Houseis the site of more-or-less permanent campaigning. In a recentPOQ piece, Murray and Howard (2002) [Public Opinion Quarterly66:527–558] explore one indicator of the "permanent campaign,"the extent to which Presidents Carter, Reagan, G.H.W. Bush,and Clinton commissioned independent opinion polls and focusgroups to assist in policymaking and political maneuvering.Murray and Howard suggest that while a sophisticated pollingoperation has been institutionalized in the White House, thereis substantial variation in how much a president uses this operation.In this article, we model presidential polling expendituresover time using monthly figures. We find that presidents donot vary significantly in the average amount spent per monthon polls. There are, however, two recurring patterns of variationwithin presidential administrations: Presidents tend to spendsignificantly more on internal polling during the most intensemonths of a presidential reelection campaign; and polling expendituresincrease over the course of each presidential term. These findingssuggest that there are common forces (e.g., elections, naturaldecline in support) that have driven all presidents since Fordto poll.