MEASUREMENT ERROR IN MACROECONOMIC DATA AND ECONOMICS RESEARCH: DATA REVISIONS,GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT,AND GROSS DOMESTIC INCOME

We use a preanalysis plan to analyze the effect of measurement error on economics research using the fact that the Bureau of Economic Analysis both revises its gross domestic product (GDP) data and also publishes a second, theoretically identical estimate of U.S. output that only differs from GDP due to measurement error: gross domestic income (GDI). Using a sample of 23 models published in top economics journals, we find that reestimating models using revised GDP always gives the same qualitative result as the original publication. Estimating models using GDI instead of GDP gives a different qualitative result for three of 23 models (13%). (JEL C80, C82, E01)     

Resilient and Vulnerable At-Risk Children

Data from a large representative sample of American kindergarten children were used to examine the role of risk and protective factors involved in vulnerability and resilience as they relate to the development of school-based competence. Better fine motor, gross motor, and interpersonal skills and internalizing behaviors were associated with good outcomes across competence domains, even among children from at-risk backgrounds. Resilient children (higher risk, higher competence) had much in common with their competent peers with no risk factors, including average or better fine and gross motor skills, parental educational expectations, home literacy environment, and social skills and behavior. Results suggest that center-based child care and literacy-rich home environments are tied to competence as well as resilience among at-risk children.     

CAN THE PRESIDENT REALLY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? PRESIDENTIAL EFFORT AND THE POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE

Presidential elections are often seen as referendums on the health of the economy; however, little evidence exists on the president's ability to influence gross domestic product (GDP). This study examines the effect of the incentive to be reelected and the resulting increase in presidential effort on GDP growth. Growth is found to rise in reelection years for first‐term presidents after 1932 and to fall in election years before 1932, when reelection was uncommon, and for second‐term presidents generally. This effect is largest for high‐quality presidents—who probably have the highest return to effort—and is spread across multiple sectors of the economy. (JEL D78, D72, E32, J24)     

Vertical Mystical Homoeros An Altered Form of Desire in Fundamentalism

This paper inquires into the kind of desire specific to the fundamentalist mode. The author suggests that the simplistic, black-and-white, ostensibly “horizontal” divisions between good and evil, right and wrong, pure and impure that characterize the fundamentalist sensibility create at the same time two phenomena: (a) gross emotional intensity that endows experience with a stark quality (e.g., grandiosity and abjection), and (b) a “vertical” division that constructs basic inequalities. The “vertical” difference between the believer and his God intensifies longing and mystical desire. The longing of the holder of such desire is to merge with a tantalizing, perfect, and cruel God and to renounce his individuality and even life. The concept of a “regression-to-the father” is a tempting and potentially dangerous process of abnegation if not countered by the need to overcome the “father” one so submissively desires.     

Medical students' exposure to formaldehyde in a gross anatomy dissection laboratory.

The authors studied 150 first-year medical students exposed to formaldehyde during the dissection of cadavers in a gross anatomy laboratory. As a reference group, they used 189 third- and fourth-year medical students matched for sex, ethnic group, and age. Environmental and personal samples were collected to determine the exposure to formaldehyde among the first-year students. The mean concentration of formaldehyde in parts per million (ppm) in the area was 0.50 ppm (range = 0.40-0.60 ppm) and the personal sample was 0.74 ppm (range = 0.41-1.20 ppm). No significant differences were noted in the pre- and post-exposure mean FEV1 (forced expiratory volume in 1 second) and FVC (forced vital capacity) among the 22 randomly selected exposed male and female subjects. Significant differences, however, were observed in the exposed group for symptoms of decreased ability to smell, eye irritation, throat irritation, and dry mouth in comparison with the reference group. These symptoms were also significantly related to the time and place of occurrence. Medical schools should take more concrete measures to reduce students' exposure to formaldehyde. Meanwhile, although it is not now the practice in most medical schools, students should have ready access to goggles and respirators when working in dissection laboratories.     

Economic,Social, and Cultural Contexts for Market and Product Diversification of the Lithuanian Tourism Sector

Lithuania has shown a 7% or greater increase in gross domestic product since joining the European Union, an increasing employment rate, and in part because of the greater incorporation of older people, especially females, a numerical increase in the employed; yet its population is declining because of both a low birth rate and migration. Both domestic and inbound tourism are rising. Yet because of the greater population in the Vilnius–Kaunas corridor, and because many people have left other counties to work there, tourist income in less developed parts of the country would help correct income disparities and foster sustainable regional development. While tourism attracts limited foreign direct investment, tourist infrastructure (boutique hotels, upgraded houses in the countryside, local restaurants, culture and language tourism) would be a good investment for smaller investors if strategically placed alongside a designated publicity campaign, in tandem with other eastern Baltic states or sponsored by EC delegations outside the EU, to attract small investors (including Lithuanians resident abroad) to the less developed regions of the country.      

REDISTRIBUTING INCOMES: EX ANTE OR EX POST

The standard analyses of optimal income taxation assume that the distribution of gross wages in the economy is immutable depending as it does on the distribution of innate abilities. In this paper I assume that wage distribution is not fixed but that it can be varied, up to a point, by more or less precise measurement of workers' innate abilities. I demonstrate that complete knowledge of abilities is not desirable if income can only be distributed using a linear tax. I isolate those variables which favor the narrowing of wage inequality measured by the variance with the mean held constant. This section of the paper is related to the existing literature on the desirability of price randomization.
In the second part of the paper I consider the consequences of spreading wage distributions on the optimal tax rate. It is shown that those consequences are ambiguous and dependent on the form of the social welfare function.     

Economic Dependency,Repression, and Deforestation: A Quantitative,Cross‐National Analysis*

This research builds upon previous cross‐national studies of deforestation. In doing so, I examine how various world‐systems indicators interact with political conditions within a nation. I test the hypothesis that repressive nations create a “good business climate” for multinational capital, which, in turn, affects deforestation. This “good business climate” consists of economic incentives (e.g., tax holidays), regulatory concessions (e.g., environmental law exemptions), and imposed political stability (e.g., outlawing strikes, protests, and unions). The results indicate that export partner concentration, commodity concentration, multinational corporate penetration, and International Monetary Fund conditionality increase deforestation more at higher rather than at lower levels of repression. I also confirm previous findings that gross domestic product per capita decreases deforestation, indicating that richer nations are able to externalize their environmental costs onto poorer nations. I conclude with the theoretical implications of this research, policy implications, and possible directions for future research.     

Changes in Income Concentration: Taxes or Macroeconomic Conditions?

We examine the relative importance of tax rates and macroeconomic fluctuations in explaining the share of national adjusted gross income (AGI) reported by the top 0.5% of all taxpayers. Results indicate that cutting the top income or capital gains tax rate would increase the top AGI share but not by enough to increase revenues. The preponderance of evidence suggests that the top AGI share is affected more by the capital gains tax rate than by the income tax rate but that real gross domestic product fluctuations have even larger effects.     

Emigration dynamics in Pakistan

This study of emigration dynamics in Pakistan focuses on Pakistan's position as one of the world's leading manpower exporters. The study opens with a review of the history of international labor from the subcontinent. The second section looks at the problems with the collection of data on international migration and then considers the volume of international migration, migrant destinations, return migration, undocumented migration, and the stock of migrant workers abroad. The third section describes the economic and demographic context for overseas migration through a consideration of gross national product and the remittances of migrant workers, growth in gross domestic product, poverty and income distribution, the state of the population, labor force and employment, a profile of migrant workers, and the government's employment policy. The political and social context for overseas migration is the topic of the next section, and the discussion centers on emigration policy, institutional arrangements for manpower export and the welfare of migrants, and the economic resettlement of return migrants. Consideration of the future trends in international migration from Pakistan focuses on the cyclic nature of overseas labor migration, the existence of networks to facilitate such migration, uneven distribution of enabling resources in Pakistan, the paucity of available data, and governmental/cultural factors that promote and restrict such migration. It is concluded that both individual Pakistanis and the government consider overseas migration a positive force but that a reliance on such an ad hoc measure has costs that have not been considered by Pakistan's policy-makers.     

Beyond Profitability: The Dutch Transatlantic Slave Trade and its Economic Impact

Dutch research into the slave trade and its importance to the Dutch economy has often limited itself to investigating the financial success of slave trading companies, calculating the success of slaving by its profit rates. The central argument made in this article is that gross margin is a better indicator for the importance of the slave trade to the Dutch Republic. Even if a slave trading company did not make a net profit on a voyage, such a voyage led to extra activities such as shipbuilding or the production of trade goods. This article provides a reconstruction of this gross margin for the entire period that the Dutch were engaged in the trans-Atlantic slave trade by combining the most recent data on the size of the slave trade (including illicit trade) with data on both African and American price data of slaves.     

Developments in China's Provisions for Postdivorce Relief in the 21st Century and Suggestions for Their Improvement

Since entering the 21st century, China's divorce provisions for postdivorce relief have been substantially modified. Provisions for financial assistance and damages after divorce have been added. Since the 2001 amendments to the Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China, the changes to postdivorce relief show three characteristics: First, a wider range of relief is provided; second, housework is recognized and the homeless after divorce are protected; and third, loyalty to marriage is advocated and the party who commits statutory gross wrongs is obliged to make compensation. We think that some statutory requirements of the current divorce relief measures are so strict that few divorcees, especially women, are relieved with the system. Thus, the legislature should learn from foreign legislative experiences and relax the statutory conditions in accordance with the social reality in China.     

STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION OF LABOR ADJUSTMENT COSTS WITH TEMPORALLY DISAGGREGATED DATA

I estimate a dynamic optimization model of labor adjustment of establishments based on data that permit: specifying any desired adjustment frequency; estimating the model based on net and on gross employment flows; and allowing for simultaneous hirings and separations. The unit of observation is an establishment. Results for adjustment costs depend crucially on the model specification. Only a monthly adjustment model yields cost parameters in a reasonable range, while estimates from quarterly and annual adjustment models imply negative or excessive adjustment costs. Estimating the model on net employment changes implies hiring and separation costs of four annual median salaries, while the model on gross changes implies costs on the order of 1.7 annual median salaries. (JEL C25, D22, J23)     

Indonesian civic engagement among college students

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to analyze the overall picture of Indonesian civic engagement, particularly among Palangka Raya university students. Through a quantitative approach and survey method, the population and sample of the research include the students who were on their fourth (2015/2016) and second (2016/2017) semester about 2,422 students. The answers were then divided into three categories: good, moderate, and poor. As for the civic attitude and civic behavior variables, the maximum value is 5 and the minimum 1, and then the answers were divided into five categories: very high, high, moderate, low and very low. Findings reveal (i) the similarity of civic engagement in each faculty and level of the students who are on their fourth and second semester is in moderate category in terms of their knowledge based on identifying the governmental process, rights, and duties of citizens in terms of laws and politics, as well as the lecturers; (ii) the similarity of the high category of their attitude based on the values of humanity, empathy, openness, tolerance, ethics, and social responsibility; (iii) the difference of civic engagement between the second semester students who are low and the fourth semester who are high in terms of their behavior is determined by learning experience where the fourth semester students are more experienced in coping with the problems in community than the second semester counterparts. Recommendation for future research is the exploration of the reason behind the emerging unsynchronized results between the Indonesian civic knowledge, attitude, and behavior.     

Is What’s Good for the Business,Good for the Family: A Financial Assessment

Small business prosperity doesn’t necessarily translate into family prosperity. This study utilizes the first and second waves of the National Family Business Survey to explore the influence of changes in key business financial measures on objective and subjective measures of family success. Increases in the available cash in the business from higher gross sales or net profits brings more cash into the household, while increases in the market value of the business increases the amount of money spent on other household assets. A more subjective assessment suggests that positive changes in the business financial measures create a more positive perception of the business’ success; however, these positive changes have no influence on a more positive perception of the family’s success.     

Does the Modernization of Environmental Enforcement Reduce Toxic Releases? An Examination of Self-policing,Criminal Prosecutions,and Toxic Releases in the United States, 1988–2014

According to modernization theory, enforcement schemes that rely on end-of-the-pipe regulation are not as effective at achieving improved environmental performance as market-based approaches that encourage pollution prevention. Consistent with that observation, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency transitioned to the use of self-policing to encourage pollution prevention. Other studies note that environmental compliance is significantly affected by traditional “command-and-control” strategies. Using Prais Winston regression we examine these contrasting views by estimating the relationship between toxic releases, self-policing, and criminal prosecutions from 1988 through 2014. Initial correlations suggest that (1) self-policing is not associated with toxic releases but that (2) criminal prosecutions may reduce toxic releases through general deterrence signals. Subsequent analyses controlling for gross domestic product revealed that neither self-policing nor criminal enforcement correlate with toxic releases but that gross domestic product was the strongest predictor of emissions. The implications of these findings for the control of toxic emissions are discussed.     

Small Business Success Among Men- and Women-Owned Firms in Rural Areas1

Abstract Rural women have difficulty finding good jobs. Ownership of small businesses offers an alternative but the sales and income of women-owned firms are significantly lower than those of men-owned firms. Compared with men, women owners are more likely to operate smaller and newer businesses; however, these differences do not completely account for the gap in gross sales between men- and women-owned businesses. The strongest influences on business success are firm size, corporate status, and industrial sector. Though significant, the owner's gender is less important than these organizational characteristics. The factors influencing success of small businesses generally are the same for men- and women-owned businesses. More research on business networks and the start-up phase of small businesses is necessary for a better understanding of the sources of gender differences in success.     

提高高职学生学习主动性方法刍议——兼论高职院校的学风建设和校园文化建设

学风建设是一个学校内涵建设特别是校园文化建设的重要方面,学生学习主动性的提升又是形成良好学风的基础。文章就如何提升学生的学习主动性,形成良好学风提出三点看法。一是帮学生完成一个转变,二是为学生树立一个目标,三是给学生以学习创业就业之渔。     

The Extended Metropolitan Area in a New EU Member State: Implications for a Rural Development Approach

I examine the role of rural development strategies in a new member state (Romania) of the European Union and, in particular, analyse the case of the metropolitan area of the Bucharest-Ilfov region. The analysis concerns the selected strategies for rural development in the programming period 2007–2013. It must be noted that Romania is divided into nonadministrative development regions and that the process of land privatisation is not yet concluded. These factors could have a negative influence on the implementation of the interventions. The analysed region is situated in the Southern part of the country and in the central part of the Romanian Plan. The total surface is about 1.8 square kilometres, of which 12.5% are occupied by the town of Bucharest and 87.5% by Ilfov County; however, approximately 88% of the population is concentrated in the urban center and only 12% in Ilfov County. The case study is characterised on the one hand by a high growth rate of the gross domestic product, a relatively low unemployment rate, and increasing consumer good sales (mainly food and beverages); on the other, by some marked disparities in macroeconomic indicators among regions and between rural and urban areas and an enormous lack of infrastructures. The case study thus calls for a local approach in order to identify the strategies required to improve the quality of life of the regional inhabitants (both in rural and urban areas) and to prevent pressure from the urban centre from compromising the rich rural heritage      

TIE-IN SALES AND PRICE DISCRIMINATION

This paper analyzes a class of contracts between buyers and sellers which specifies that the purchase of one good cannot be effectuated unless a second good is also purchased. The economic forces resulting from a tie-in are shown to be influenced by factors such as depreciation of the tying good, the sales policy of the firm and the discount rate. Price discrimination, the traditional hypothesis for this tie-in, is seen to make sense only when these factors align themselves in particular ways although an alternative hypothesis, risk reduction, is unaffected by these factors. The price-discrimination hypothesis, therefore, loses much of its appeal, relative to the alternative.