Monitoring process mean and dispersion with one double generally weighted moving average control chart

Control charts are widely known quality tools used to detect and control industrial process deviations in Statistical Process Control. In the current paper, we propose a new single memory-type control chart, called the maximum double generally weighted moving average chart (referred as Max-DGWMA), that simultaneously detects shifts in the process mean and/or process dispersion. The run length performance of the proposed Max-DGWMA chart is compared with that of the Max-EWMA, Max-DEWMA, Max-GWMA and SS-DGWMA charts, using time-varying control limits, through Monte–Carlo simulations. The comparisons reveal that the proposed chart is more efficient than the Max-EWMA, Max-DEWMA and Max-GWMA charts, while it is comparable with the SS-DGWMA chart. An automotive industry application is presented in order to implement the Max-DGWMA chart. The goal is to establish statistical control of the manufacturing process of the automobile engine piston rings. The source of the out-of-control signals is interpreted and the efficiency of the proposed chart in detecting shifts faster is evident.     

A test for lack-of-fit of zero-inflated negative binomial models

When a count data set has excessive zero counts, nonzero counts are overdispersed, and the effect of a continuous covariate might be nonlinear, for analysis a semiparametric zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression model is proposed. The unspecified smooth functional form for the continuous covariate effect is approximated by a cubic spline. The semiparametric ZINB regression model is fitted by maximizing the likelihood function. The likelihood ratio procedure is used to evaluate the adequacy of a postulated parametric functional form for the continuous covariate effect. An extensive simulation study is conducted to assess the finite-sample performance of the proposed test. The practicality of the proposed methodology is demonstrated with data of a motorcycle survey of traffic regulations conducted in 2007 in Taiwan by the Ministry of Transportation and Communication.     

Bayesian estimation and case influence diagnostics for the zero-inflated negative binomial regression model

In recent years, there has been considerable interest in regression models based on zero-inflated distributions. These models are commonly encountered in many disciplines, such as medicine, public health, and environmental sciences, among others. The zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model has been typically considered for these types of problems. However, the ZIP model can fail if the non-zero counts are overdispersed in relation to the Poisson distribution, hence the zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model may be more appropriate. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach for fitting the ZINB regression model. This model considers that an observed zero may come from a point mass distribution at zero or from the negative binomial model. The likelihood function is utilized to compute not only some Bayesian model selection measures, but also to develop Bayesian case-deletion influence diagnostics based on q-divergence measures. The approach can be easily implemented using standard Bayesian software, such as WinBUGS. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated with a simulation study. Further, a real data set is analyzed, where we show that ZINB regression models seems to fit the data better than the Poisson counterpart.     

Monitoring correlated processes with binomial marginals

Few approaches for monitoring autocorrelated attribute data have been proposed in the literature. If the marginal process distribution is binomial, then the binomial AR(1) model as a realistic and well-interpretable process model may be adequate. Based on known and newly derived statistical properties of this model, we shall develop approaches to monitor a binomial AR(1) process, and investigate their performance in a simulation study. A case study demonstrates the applicability of the binomial AR(1) model and of the proposed control charts to problems from statistical process control.     

Quasi-binomial zero-inflated regression model suitable for variables with bounded support

In recent years, a variety of regression models, including zero-inflated and hurdle versions, have been proposed to explain the case of a dependent variable with respect to exogenous covariates. Apart from the classical Poisson, negative binomial and generalised Poisson distributions, many proposals have appeared in the statistical literature, perhaps in response to the new possibilities offered by advanced software that now enables researchers to implement numerous special functions in a relatively simple way. However, we believe that a significant research gap remains, since very little attention has been paid to the quasi-binomial distribution, which was first proposed over fifty years ago. We believe this distribution might constitute a valid alternative to existing regression models, in situations in which the variable has bounded support. Therefore, in this paper we present a zero-inflated regression model based on the quasi-binomial distribution, taking into account the moments and maximum likelihood estimators, and perform a score test to compare the zero-inflated quasi-binomial distribution with the zero-inflated binomial distribution, and the zero-inflated model with the homogeneous model (the model in which covariates are not considered). This analysis is illustrated with two data sets that are well known in the statistical literature and which contain a large number of zeros.     

A bootstrap control chart for inverse Gaussian percentiles

The conventional Shewhart-type control chart is developed essentially on the central limit theorem. Thus, the Shewhart-type control chart performs particularly well when the observed process data come from a near-normal distribution. On the other hand, when the underlying distribution is unknown or non-normal, the sampling distribution of a parameter estimator may not be available theoretically. In this case, the Shewhart-type charts are not available. Thus, in this paper, we propose a parametric bootstrap control chart for monitoring percentiles when process measurements have an inverse Gaussian distribution. Through extensive Monte Carlo simulations, we investigate the behaviour and performance of the proposed bootstrap percentile charts. The average run lengths of the proposed percentage charts are investigated.     

A multivariate zero-inflated binomial model for the analysis of correlated proportional data

In this paper, a new multivariate zero-inflated binomial (MZIB) distribution is proposed to analyse the correlated proportional data with excessive zeros. The distributional properties of purposed model are studied. The Fisher scoring algorithm and EM algorithm are given for the computation of estimates of parameters in the proposed MZIB model with/without covariates. The score tests and the likelihood ratio tests are derived for assessing both the zero-inflation and the equality of multiple binomial probabilities in correlated proportional data. A limited simulation study is performed to evaluate the performance of derived EM algorithms for the estimation of parameters in the model with/without covariates and to compare the nominal levels and powers of both score tests and likelihood ratio tests. The whitefly data is used to illustrate the proposed methodologies.     

Designing of a control chart using belief statistic for exponential distribution

A new control chart is proposed by using the belief statistic for the exponential distribution. The structure of the proposed control chart is given to measure the average run length for the shifted process. The comparison of the proposed chart is given with the existing charts in terms of the average run lengths, which shows the outperformance of the proposed chart. The performance of the proposed control chart is also discussed with the help of simulated data.     

A New GWMA Control Chart for Monitoring Process Mean and Variability

In this article, we extend a single exponentially weighted moving average semicircle (EWMA-SC) chart to a single generally weighted moving average (GWMA) chart. This new control chart can effectively combine the features of the SC chart with GWMA techniques, and can easily indicate the source and direction of a change. We perform simulations to evaluate the average run length, standard deviation of the run length, and diagnostic abilities of the GWMA-SC and EWMA-SC charts. An extensive comparison shows that the GWMA-SC control chart is more sensitive than the EWMA-SC chart for detecting small shifts in the process mean and/or variability.     

Improved Shewhart-type Runs-rules Nonparametric Sign Charts

Runs-rules are typically incorporated in control charts to increase their sensitivity to detect small process shifts. However, a drawback of this approach is that runs-rules charts are unable to detect large shifts quickly. In this article improved runs-rules are introduced to the nonparametric sign chart to address this limitation. Improved runs-rules are incorporated to maintain sensitivity to small process shifts, while having the added ability to detect large shifts in the process more efficiently. Performance comparisons between sign charts with runs-rules and sign charts with improved runs-rules illustrate that the improved runs-rules are superior in performance for large shifts in the process, while maintaining the same sensitivity in the detection of small shifts.     

Bivariate dispersion quality control charts

A Shewhart procedure is used to simultaneously control the standard deviations of quality characteristics assumed to have a bivariate normal distribution. Following Krishnaiah et al (1963), we use the bivariate chi-square distribution to determine probabilities of out-of-control signals and thus the respective average run lengths (ARLs). Results from an example indicate that for both one-sided and two-sided cases, signals occur only slightly more quickly for changes in the process standard deviations for uncorrected variables than for correlated variables.     

Parameter optimization for a modified MEWMA control chart based on a PSO algorithm

The standard multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart with a constant smoothing parameter or diagonal matrix is based on the assumption that the samples obey standard normal distribution. With improvements in manufacturing quality and product complexity, there is always correlativity among quality characteristics, and samples will not always obey standard normal distribution. Considering the correlativity among quality characteristics, a new modified general MEWMA (GEWMA) control chart is proposed, and its performance is analyzed. Based on the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, a smoothing matrix optimized under certain conditions is selected and applied to a sample analysis. As a result of the parameter combination chosen by PSO, the statistic function of the GEWMA control chart is better than that of the full matrix MEWMA (FEWMA) control chart.     

Detecting mean increases in Poisson INAR(1) processes with EWMA control charts

Processes of serially dependent Poisson counts are commonly observed in real-world applications and can often be modeled by the first-order integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) model. For detecting positive shifts in the mean of a Poisson INAR(1) process, we propose the one-sided s exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart, which is based on a new type of rounding operation. The s-EWMA chart allows computing average run length (ARLs) exactly and efficiently with a Markov chain approach. Using an implementation of this procedure for ARL computation, the s-EWMA chart is easily designed, which is demonstrated with a real-data example. Based on an extensive study of ARLs, the out-of-control performance of the chart is analyzed and compared with that of a c chart and a one-sided cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart. We also investigate the robustness of the chart against departures from the assumed Poisson marginal distribution.     

Extended binomial AR(1) processes with generalized binomial thinning operator

Abstract

In this article, we introduce an extended binomial AR(1) model based on the generalized binomial thinning operator. This operator relaxes the independence assumption of the binomial thinning operator and contains dependent Bernoulli counting series. The new model contains the binomial AR(1) model as a particular case. Some probabilistic and statistical properties are explored. Estimators of the model parameters are derived by conditional maximum likelihood (CML), conditional least squares (CLS) and weighted conditional least squares (WCLS) methods. Some asymptotic properties and numerical results of the estimators are studied. The good performance of the new model is illustrated, among other competitive models in the literature, by an application to the monthly drunken driving counts.     

New control charts for simultaneous monitoring of the mean vector and covariance matrix of multivariate multiple linear profiles

Simultaneous monitoring of the mean vector and covariance matrix in multivariate processes allows practitioners to avoid the inflated false alarm rate that results from using two independent control charts. In this paper, we extend exponentially weighted moving average semicircle and generally weighted moving average semicircle control charts to monitor the mean vector and covariance matrix of multivariate multiple linear regression profiles in Phase II simultaneously. These new control charts are compared with the existing control charts in the literature in terms of the average run length criterion. Finally, a case is considered to show the application of the proposed charts.     

Monitoring prespecified changes in linear profiles using control charts with supplementary runs rules

In profile monitoring, some methods have been developed to detect the unspecified changes in the profiles. However, detecting changes away from the “normal” profile toward one of several prespecified “bad” profiles is one possible and challenging purpose. In this article, control charts with supplementary runs rules are developed to detect the prespecified changes in linear profiles. A control chart is first developed based on the Student's t-statistic in t test, and two runs rules are then supplemented to this chart, respectively. Simulation studies show that the proposed control schemes are effective and stable. Moreover, the control schemes are better than the existing alternative charts when the number of observations per sample profile is large. Finally, two illustrative examples indicate that our proposed schemes are effective and easy to be implemented.     

Phase II Monitoring of Nonlinear Profiles

In many practical cases, the quality of a product or process is characterized by multiple measurements constituting a line or curve that is referred to as a profile. In this article, we develop two approaches for monitoring process and product nonlinear profiles. The first approach consists of control chart methods to monitor nonlinear profiles using parametric estimates of regression model. In order to avoid the problems arising from complexity of coefficient estimation of nonlinear profiles, the second approach, which consists of using metrics to measure deviation from a reference curve, is proposed. The performance of the methods is evaluated through a numerical example using average run length criterion. The effect of sample size on the performance of both approaches is also investigated in this article.     

Goodness-of-fit tests for binomial AR(1) processes

The binomial AR(1) model describes a nonlinear process with a first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) structure and a binomial marginal distribution. To develop goodness-of-fit tests for the binomial AR(1) model, we investigate the observed marginal distribution of the binomial AR(1) process, and we tackle its autocorrelation structure. Motivated by the family of power-divergence statistics for handling discrete multivariate data, we derive the asymptotic distribution of certain categorized power-divergence statistics for the case of a binomial AR(1) process. Then we consider Bartlett's formula, which is widely used in time series analysis to provide estimates of the asymptotic covariance between sample autocorrelations, but which is not applicable when the underlying process is nonlinear. Hence, we derive a novel Bartlett-type formula for the asymptotic distribution of the sample autocorrelations of a binomial AR(1) process, which is then applied to develop tests concerning the autocorrelation structure. Simulation studies are carried out to evaluate the size and power of the proposed tests under diverse alternative process models. Several real examples are used to illustrate our methods and findings.